Wild Card Lead-up : Pack @ Arizona - Sunday, 3:30 PM Fox

[PkrsBcksGphsMqt]

http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/picks

Sporting News analysts picks: 4/3 in favor of the Pack.

[ReasonablySober]

Hell, by the time the game starts the Packers won't be underdogs they'll be the favorite.

[Ayt]

If I were an outsider, I'd bet on the Packers. They are red hot (7 of 8) and simply look better on paper. Arizona also has injury issues whereas we don't. Home field advantage is nice, but Arizona was only 4-4 at home. Even if you discount last week, which you probably shouldn't completely, I'd still bet on the Pack if I were a fan of another team that really didn't care about the teams beyond winning some money.

[LUKE23]

Yeah, we are clearly the better overall team. If I were an outside fan I'd be betting on the Pack as well. I just hope the players aren't reading any of this. Come in ready to dominate again.

[Ayt]

Out of curiosity I started poking around a bit more. We had the second highest point differential in the league this year behind only NO, or, in other words, we had the second highest margin of victory at 10.3 per game compared to their 10.6 per game. I certainly wouldn't have guessed that.

I got that from profootball reference. I also noticed a state called SRS (simple rating system) which I had noticed before but hadn't really looked into. The best explanation is probably on basketball reference, which has adopted the stat.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=39

Edit: Actually, that wasn't much of an explanation at all.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=37

This is the explanation, but if you skip past all the math, it's basically just a way to rank teams based on margin of victory and strength of schedule. We had a crap schedule, but we also had the large point differential which gave our overall SRS a huge boost. The same was true of Minny. It's actually pretty a pretty damn interesting system, with the author pointing out all the drawbacks at the end.

Anyway, according to SRS, we were 2nd in the NFC at 7.4 just ahead of Minny, and 5th overall in the NFL. Arizona was 10th in the NFC at -0.3. They also state you can use that as a rough point spread by adding roughly 2 points for the home team, which leaves us with a spread of 5.7. Just throwing it out there to see how close they are.

The games are played on the field of course (see TB), especially in the NFL playoffs compared to the NBA playoffs, but at least according to that simple formula we are a pretty big favorite.

Fun fact in case you didn't bother to reading one of the links I posted:

The SRS leader has been the league champion 33 times (54%).

The 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks had the highest SRS of all time, 11.91 in 1970-71. The Bucks went 66-16 in the regular season (with a record point differential of 11.6 points per game) and won the NBA title, losing just two games in the playoffs. (It should be noted that three expansion teams debuted in the 1970-71 season.)

Go Bucks.

[an_also]

We had the second highest point differential in the league this year behind only NO, or, in other words, we had the second highest margin of victory at 10.3 per game compared to their 10.6 per game. I certainly wouldn't have guessed that.

I'm not surprised. Our sked had a lot of cupcake teams we destroyed. Lions twice, Browns, Rams, Seattle.

[Ayt]

We had the second highest point differential in the league this year behind only NO, or, in other words, we had the second highest margin of victory at 10.3 per game compared to their 10.6 per game. I certainly wouldn't have guessed that.

I'm not surprised. Our sked had a lot of cupcake teams we destroyed. Lions twice, Browns, Rams, Seattle.

True, but I still wouldn't have guessed it because MInnesota also played a crap schedule and I figured we'd be more like 5th rather than right behind the Saints at 2nd. The Saints MOV was only 0.3 more than us. I figured the Colts and even the Chargers would be up there. The Pats actually had the largest MOV in the AFC.

The MOV in the AFC is pretty screwy this year. The Colts blowing off the last two games changes it a bit, but even if you bump them up a few notches it's still weird.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2009/

The other interesting thing there is that the best team in football according to SRS is NE. They played the 3rd hardest schedule in the AFC yet still had the highest MOV. The loss of Welker, of course, changes that now, but it's still interesting.

I probably come off as too much of a stat whore, but I like having numbers like these bouncing around in my head while I analyze the games and actually think about matchups.

[chuckleslove]

The colts had a lot of close games even before blowing off the last 2 games though.

The Saints were blowing people out early in the year but tailed off, I'm surprised they weren't farther ahead of us.

[PkrsBcksGphsMqt]

Bill Simmons Pack/Cards breakdown...

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/100108

Packers (PK) over CARDINALS

Key Player(s): Too many injured, might-play-might-not-play Cardinals to count. This line moved three points this week; for once, it didn't feel like a red flag. The Packers are healthier and peaking at the right time; their 2009 road record was better than Arizona's 2009 home record. I have not heard anyone successfully make a case for Arizona this week that didn't involve the words "home field," "God" and "puppies."

Relevant E-mail (from Chip at Marquette): "I can't concentrate on the Cards with Favre waiting for us in Round 2. If we lose to Favre three times in one season, that will be the worst thing that happened here since Dahmer. I'd say it was the worst ever, but Dahmer kept male organs in jars in his refrigerator. We're never topping that."

(Important note: I made that last e-mail up. Couldn't resist. But what happens if Favre knocks them out of the playoffs? Do we put yellow police tape around the entire state of Wisconsin?)

Possible Playoff Doppelganger: Panthers-Bears from January 2006. Chicago had home field; Carolina was better.

Possible Tragic Figure(s): Green Bay's kickers will submarine them at some point. Jeremy Kapinos finished last for punting net and only put 15 of his 66 punts inside the 20 (second-worst of all starting punters); Mason Crosby missed nine field goals (most of any playoff kicker). That reminds me: Someone attended one of my book signings wearing a Crosby jersey. When I asked the guy if he was related to Crosby, he said, "No, I just like him." My signings pumped out "Yup, these are my readers" moments at almost warp speed. It was phenomenal.

Hero You Might Not Have Expected: Steve Breaston.

This Game As a "Jersey Shore" Character: Pauly D. No real surprises in store, but you will be entertained.

(By the way, I'm devastated that none of these Round 1 games could be compared to J-Woww, the brawling boozer with up-and-down looks who compared herself to a praying mantis because she likes to effectively rip guys' heads off after she has sex with them. Maybe next week. I'm thinking Chargers-Bengals for that one.)

Theories in Play: Last decade's new rules are in play for the Pack (passing trumps running, home field doesn't matter as much) and Cards (potentially a textbook "Nobody Believes In Us" team, although I get the feeling they don't believe in themselves, either). From the old Playoff Manifesto, four other beauties point to Arizona: "beware of the road favorite" (Zona will be favored by Sunday), "never follow the general public on a bandwagon pick," "beware of a coaching mismatch" and "pay special attention to special teams and turnovers."

Normally, I would trust the process and take the Cardinals here.

I am taking the Packers. For three reasons. First, they have a better team. Second, I don't think they have Ganz Corollary potential because of their agonizing loss to Pittsburgh in Week 15, which happened just late enough that it left the right kind of sour taste for the postseason. And third, two playoff matchups seemed to have been predestined since the middle of the season: "Pats-Colts II: Fourth and Another Two" and "Favre-Packers III: Apocalypse Now." As it stands right now, both of them could happen this month. Good God almighty.

The Pick: Packers 31, Cardinals 23.

Last Week: 10-6
Season: 133-116-5

[MickeyDavis]

Packers are now 1 point favorites

[MickeyDavis]

Now 1.5 point favorites. Scott Green is the ref. His crew is in the middle as far as penalities. They worked the Packers/Niners game, Packers 6/65 penalties, Niners 4/30. Home teams were 10-6 in his games.

[Mags FTW]

Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald says Anquan Boldin likely 'to give it a go'

Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin remained questionable on Saturday for the wild-card game against Green Bay on Sunday.

Boldin has left ankle and knee injuries that have hampered him since a loss to Green Bay last weekend. The Arizona Republic reported that Boldin will likely test his leg during the pregame to determine if he can play.

Fellow Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald said he's quietly confident that the notoriously tough Boldin will be able to play.

"If I were to be a betting man and, knowing his toughness, I know he's going to give it a go," Fitzgerald told the Republic.

"I don't know if he's going to be 100%, but I know he's going to want to go out there and play. He's worked too hard." -- Sean Leahy

http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... -it-a-go/1

Cardinals' Anquan Boldin a game-time decision vs. Packers

Cue the suspense. Or better yet, make that 'Q' the suspense.

Receiver Anquan Boldin spent part of Saturday testing his injured left ankle and knee to see if countless hours of rehab and treatment had been effective enough to allow him to play in Sunday's NFC playoff game against the Packers
.

Unless he told coach Ken Whisenhunt after team meetings Saturday night that he couldn't go, Boldin likely will take the field for pregame workouts, and then it will be a game-time decision.

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/cardina ... tatus.html

[BucksRuleAll22]

The Good news is the Jets destroyed the Bengals just like they did last week, and the Cowboys destroyed the Eagles just like they did last week for everyone worried about us destroing the Cardinals and it comming back to haunt us.

Despite all the excuses from the few Cardinal fans we have just dominated them in both games this season when all there starters were in. Packers are by far the better team and playing the best football and one of the hottest teams comming into the playoffs.

It is the playoffs and we are the away team and sometime the Cardinals do play a great game.

[Ryan5UW]

Yeah, I haven't been buying all this "Bolding is likely out" nonsense. Sounds like classic playoff gamesmanship to me.

[ReasonablySober]

Shefter now saying Boldin isn't expected to because of his knee, not his ankle.

[trwi7]

Here's a tweet about it.

http://twitter.com/Adam_Schefter/statuses/7595194200

His next tweet also said that those that know Kurt Warner think this is his final season. If that's true, that division is going to be even more horrendous than it has been.

[PkrsBcksGphsMqt]

I flew out of Madison yesterday on my way back to Spokane for school. There were a ton of die hard packer fans at the airport heading to Arizona for the game. I think there is a good chance the crowd today will be 50/50.

[Ayt]

Boldin would likely be hobbling all over since he hurt both his ankle and his knee and they didn't look like minor things you'd come back from in a week, playoffs or no playoffs.