Danny is a realist, and you had better be prepared

[GreenDreamer]

This is a heavy dose of reality.

1. We have ZERO depth at the 1, 2 and 3 spots. House is unplayable against certain teams, as is Tony. Marquis is probably just as much a liability. Walker and Giddens don't have what it takes to fill the void either. EVERYTHING revolves around Rondo, Ray and Paul there.

2. Ray is old, and due to the complete lack of depth we have, is getting run into the ground yet again. This dude shouldn't be playing more than 30 minutes a game at this point of his career, yet he is logging over 36. He is going to be a useless puddle of sweat by the time the playoffs arrive if this keeps up. He isn't the only old guy around here either.

3. We only have two real shooters on this team who have value night in and night out: Paul and Ray. The reason they play so much is if both are off the floor, there is NO spacing whatsoever, especially against good teams. Quite frankly, sometimes you need to have both out there to have any spacing.

4. We are well over 20 million dollars over the luxury tax threshold, nevermind the salary cap. To sign a free agent without using the MLE, you have to be under the cap by as much as that guy is getting in the first year of his deal ( I think). We used the LLE on Marquis for a one year deal, so that 1.9 million won't come back around until the season after next.

This is relevant because we have A LOT of expiring contracts this season, and yet if we let them all expire, we would still be unable to sign anyone as a free agent, apart from the MLE. That means that we can only RETAIN players, by extending them next season. No money, whatsoever, for LeBron are even a crappy free agent.

5. We have a top tier team. We are still going to be one next season, regardless. The thing is that we will not be one, as presently contsructed for much longer after that, and our chances of realistically winning a Title with the one we have now is slim. We just have too many damn holes, and not enough meaningful depth. Rondo, Ray and Paul can't keep on playing the minutes they are now, and getting KG back isn't going to change that much. Will we be better? Sure, but the minute load is going to bite us in the ass when the REALLY grueling basketball begins. Remember how bad Ray and Paul looked in the playoffs for long stretches? That was just two series. Could they make it through four without totally collapsing this time around? I don't think so.

6. GOOD playoff rotations are short. 8 or 9 RELIABLE guys you can use against ANY team. Not some hodgepodge of players, like what we have, who help you against one team, and kill you against others.

Reality: This team had better have on its roster by the trading deadline a pretty fair approximation of what it wants as a team for NEXT season, never mind for these playoffs. You can't trade free agents, apart from sign and trades, and quite frankly ALL of our expiring contracts have their MAX REAL value BEFORE this deadline. This is just the way things are. Danny knows this.

I'm not saying that this is definitely going to happen, but don't be surprised to see Ray get dealt to the Bulls for Hinrich/Deng, and Danny making other moves to add shooting and depth to compensate for Ray's loss. Why would he do something like this? Well, Kirk and Luol are younger, and can play twice as many minutes as Ray can, and occupy two different positions on the floor simultaneously. Kirk can not only back up Rondo, but he can play alongside him just as well. Can Ray do that? Can Eddie? Nope. Luol would not only be able to allow Paul to play greatly reduced minutes, and be consequently much fresher, but he could easily fit into the Posey role of a four man in a smaller, quicker lineup. He would have come in mighty handy against the Hwaks, that is for sure. He is also only 24 years old, and could ultimately replace Paul, allowing us to rebuild on the fly. Ray for the two of them works out fine, straight up, rules-wise.

The other expiring contracts that we have could be used to get other pieces to set us up for this season and beyond. Personally, I would target the Wizards, who seem to be anxious to empty all of their contracts. We could offer a package that would net us guys like Miller and Young. Miller is an expiring, and could be easily resigned with part of the MLE if he works out. Young is under contract for next season.

In this scenario instead of having an exhausted Rondo, Ray and Paul (with the emphasis on the last two), we would have Rondo, Paul, Hinrich, Deng, Miller and Young. Plenty of rest for everyone, and plenty of shooting out there to boot. I'll explain my thoughts on the central importance of Rondo in another thread, but I think that it is essential that he is surrounded by shooters. He'll set them up, all they need to do is knock the open looks down, or pin defenders to open up driving lanes. That is a damn sight better than watching Ray get run into the ground again.

It doesn't necessarily have to be these deals, though it would be great if something like this went down. Personally, if we could get a competent combo guard like Hinrich and another guy like Gomes, with expiring contracts of our more useless players, I'd be thrilled too. I've run the numbers a few times, and there are three way trades which could bring us in both of them, and still allow us to keep Marquis.

Considering the state of our team, it is very likely that we will have to deal Ray to get deeper and younger, unless Danny can pull some other rabbit out of his hat. Considering the amount of expiring money we have, and the firesales that are about to take place on certain cash strapped clubs, Danny had better make sure that he is at the head of the line when it comes to piking qulity players who can help us this season, and down the road.

[Scalamental]

Now I wish we got raja bell, so someone could put the plug on crawford.

[Celts17Pride]

I don't know why people can't understand this but Ray Allen is not going to be traded. The chances of him getting traded are about 5%. The salary cap is going down next year and the Celtics are not looking to add payroll for next season.

In your example of Ray Allen for Hinrich and Deng the Celtics would be adding $20.3 million to their payroll for next season. Add that to the dollar for dollar luxury tax and it's $40.6 million added for next season. It's not going to happen. I don't understand why people can't grasp this concept.

No offense.

[GreenDreamer]

I don't know why people can't understand this but Ray Allen is not going to be traded. The chances of him getting traded are about 5%. The salary cap is going down next year and the Celtics are not looking to add payroll for next season.

In your example of Ray Allen for Hinrich and Deng the Celtics would be adding $20.3 million to their payroll for next season. Add that to the dollar for dollar luxury tax and it's $40.6 million added for next season. It's not going to happen. I don't understand why people can't grasp this concept.

No offense.

No offense, but your math is pretty shoddy. Hinrich and Deng will make approximately the same amount of money that Ray is making right NOW. We still have around 11-12 million dollars of OTHER expiring deals on top of that. This is why I proposed Miller, whose 9 million dollar plus deal is expiring as well. We could get him for the rest of this season at that, but he will not command anywhere near that next season, and could very well resign here.

Now if we RETAINED Ray, then he would probably get around 8 million a year, with the basic idea being that Rondo's 7 million dollar raise was coming from Ray's previous deal. You FORGOT about the BIG PICTURE. The TOTAL expirings. Ray's deal could net us two very good players, and we could spin the other expirings to get a guy like Young, who will be a cheap contract next season relatively, and a guy like Miller. Hell, if Young looks good here, you let Miller walk without a second thought.

Trading Ray does NOT equal adding 20 million dollars to the payroll. Letting Ray walk at the end of the season would be a total catastrophe, as we would lose that salary slot and have no replacement at all.... if you were thinking that something like that could happen.

No offense.

[GreenDreamer]

I should have mentioned this before, but I would be shocked if Rasheed was here next season. I think that it is very likely that he will just retire at the end of the season. If we don't work out some kind of deal to move his salary, we will have to use the MLE for a replacement for him, making it all the more important that our basic rotation is pretty much set for next season by this dealine. We will be seriously screwed otherwise.

[Celts17Pride]

I don't know why people can't understand this but Ray Allen is not going to be traded. The chances of him getting traded are about 5%. The salary cap is going down next year and the Celtics are not looking to add payroll for next season.

In your example of Ray Allen for Hinrich and Deng the Celtics would be adding $20.3 million to their payroll for next season. Add that to the dollar for dollar luxury tax and it's $40.6 million added for next season. It's not going to happen. I don't understand why people can't grasp this concept.

No offense.

No offense, but your math is pretty shoddy. Hinrich and Deng will make approximately the same amount of money that Ray is making right NOW. We still have around 11-12 million dollars of OTHER expiring deals on top of that. This is why I proposed Miller, whose 9 million dollar plus deal is expiring as well. We could get him for the rest of this season at that, but he will not command anywhere near that next season, and could very well resign here.

Now if we RETAINED Ray, then he would probably get around 8 million a year, with the basic idea being that Rondo's 7 million dollar raise was coming from Ray's previous deal. You FORGOT about the BIG PICTURE. The TOTAL expirings. Ray's deal could net us two very good players, and we could spin the other expirings to get a guy like Young, who will be a cheap contract next season relatively, and a guy like Miller. Hell, if Young looks good here, you let Miller walk without a second thought.

Trading Ray does NOT equal adding 20 million dollars to the payroll. Letting Ray walk at the end of the season would be a total catastrophe, as we would lose that salary slot and have no replacement at all.... if you were thinking that something like that could happen.

No offense.

Celtics have $63 mill in payroll next year for (six players) with no Ray Allen. Hinrich and Deng would add another $20.3 million. That would be $83.3 mill for (8 players) with the luxury tax it's about $103 mill for (8 players). They still would have to sign at least 5 more players. It's not happening.

[Celts17Pride]

I don't know why people can't understand this but Ray Allen is not going to be traded. The chances of him getting traded are about 5%. The salary cap is going down next year and the Celtics are not looking to add payroll for next season.

In your example of Ray Allen for Hinrich and Deng the Celtics would be adding $20.3 million to their payroll for next season. Add that to the dollar for dollar luxury tax and it's $40.6 million added for next season. It's not going to happen. I don't understand why people can't grasp this concept.

No offense.

No offense, but your math is pretty shoddy. Hinrich and Deng will make approximately the same amount of money that Ray is making right NOW.

That's were you lose it. The Celtics are not resigning Ray Allen for $20 million.

[Celtsfan1980]

Pierce has a player option, correct? Are they allowed to talk with players before the season ends as to what they feel about their option, or is that illegal? Let's say Pierce declines the option and gets 11, 12, and 13 million over 3 years. Deng and Heinrich would put them a little higher than where they are right now. Obviously if Pierce accepted the option they'd have problems. I definitely agree that they're better off with a trade, as Allen is not looking very good at this point.

[CeltsfanSinceBirth]

I should have mentioned this before, but I would be shocked if Rasheed was here next season. I think that it is very likely that he will just retire at the end of the season. If we don't work out some kind of deal to move his salary, we will have to use the MLE for a replacement for him, making it all the more important that our basic rotation is pretty much set for next season by this dealine. We will be seriously screwed otherwise.

Sheed still has another year left in him. I doubt he retires after this season. $5-10 million is a lot to walk away from. What makes you think he's going to retire? Heck, even if he was to suffer a career-ending injury, I'm sure he'd be happy to sit on the inactive list while an insurance policy pays off the rest of his contract.

As for Deng - no thanks. His contract is terrible. I'd love to see Hinrich in green though. Same thing with Tyrus Thomas. Sure, he's a bit crazy, but I like his versatility and his athleticism. Not too sure what we'd give up to get both those guys, but it sure as hell won't be Ray Allen.

[BRUNiNHO91]

Be prepared to not do ****. Specially not Ray... Ray isn't going anywhere..the only stretch of the season where we had at least 90% of our team, we won 11 straight, and 14 out of 15..you really think Danny is blowing that up this year?HAHA...
So why does one of these piece of **** 'Trade Ray for friggin sucky overrated players, just because they are younger' threads come around every single time we lose a damn game? Holy ****...
Trade Ray = Upset Paul Pierce and upset Kevin Garnett, and upset Rasheed Wallace..when one goes, all others will too. Kev only signed up for this team because Ray was here..Sheed only signed up because the other 3 guys were here.
And to all the little people who say we are thin at the 1-2-3..look at the all mighty **** Lakers..Behind Kobe we have?Mhm..Farmar and Vujacic?lol...behind Fisher(who sucks by the way) they have, Shannon Brown..great player...yes...Behind Artest(who has also sucked this year) they have?Mhm..nobody? Yet they are still the greatest team in the world, and Boston with Rondo, Ray, Pierce, Quisy, TA and House, is the old team that isn't deep enough..lol..Come on folks..
If you're Danny, you look to improve by signing somebody who gets released int he enxt couple of months...or you try and trade a package of Tony, Scal, Giddens, Walker(add Baby and House, IF something really good comes up) for a Raja Bell, Maggette, or one of those solid vet guys...besides that, NOTHING WILL BE DONE.

[Celts17Pride]

If you're Danny, you look to improve by signing somebody who gets released int he enxt couple of months...or you try and trade a package of Tony, Scal, Giddens, Walker(add Baby and House, IF something really good comes up) for a Raja Bell, Maggette, or one of those solid vet guys...besides that, NOTHING WILL BE DONE.

That about sums it up. You think anything more then that will happen then you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

[Celtsfan1980]

If you're Danny, you look to improve by signing somebody who gets released int he enxt couple of months...or you try and trade a package of Tony, Scal, Giddens, Walker(add Baby and House, IF something really good comes up) for a Raja Bell, Maggette, or one of those solid vet guys...besides that, NOTHING WILL BE DONE.

You'd really want Maggette with his contract?

[klemen4]

Ray contract $19,766,860 + our other expiring are worth a lot in this days market. Just look what kind of trade scenarios are possible for McGrady contract.
This Ray contract is our only chance to get a borderline young all star via trade in this and next 3 years (I suppose Pierce and KG wont be traded when their contract become expiring).
If we can get Iguodala, Martin(Sac) kind of players you have to do it.

I would like a scenario of

Ray, Scal
for
Iguodala, Dalambert

than trading

Dalambert for Nocioni, Rodriguez(exp.)

It is a huge salary commitment for the future ($19,200,000 for Iguodala,Nocioni in 2010) so a doubt a trade like that is possible.

RONDO/DANIELS
PIERCE/HOUSE
IGUODALA/NOCIONI
KG/DAVIS
PERKINS/WALLACE

------------------------

Another option is trying to trade for Randolph by taking Maggette contract.

Randolph, Magette, Claxton(exp.) for Ray Allen

What a great teacher KG would be for young Randolph...worth a try.

[GreenDreamer]

I don't know why people can't understand this but Ray Allen is not going to be traded. The chances of him getting traded are about 5%. The salary cap is going down next year and the Celtics are not looking to add payroll for next season.

In your example of Ray Allen for Hinrich and Deng the Celtics would be adding $20.3 million to their payroll for next season. Add that to the dollar for dollar luxury tax and it's $40.6 million added for next season. It's not going to happen. I don't understand why people can't grasp this concept.

No offense.

No offense, but your math is pretty shoddy. Hinrich and Deng will make approximately the same amount of money that Ray is making right NOW. We still have around 11-12 million dollars of OTHER expiring deals on top of that. This is why I proposed Miller, whose 9 million dollar plus deal is expiring as well. We could get him for the rest of this season at that, but he will not command anywhere near that next season, and could very well resign here.

Now if we RETAINED Ray, then he would probably get around 8 million a year, with the basic idea being that Rondo's 7 million dollar raise was coming from Ray's previous deal. You FORGOT about the BIG PICTURE. The TOTAL expirings. Ray's deal could net us two very good players, and we could spin the other expirings to get a guy like Young, who will be a cheap contract next season relatively, and a guy like Miller. Hell, if Young looks good here, you let Miller walk without a second thought.

Trading Ray does NOT equal adding 20 million dollars to the payroll. Letting Ray walk at the end of the season would be a total catastrophe, as we would lose that salary slot and have no replacement at all.... if you were thinking that something like that could happen.

No offense.

Celtics have $63 mill in payroll next year for (six players) with no Ray Allen. Hinrich and Deng would add another $20.3 million. That would be $83.3 mill for (8 players) with the luxury tax it's about $103 mill for (8 players). They still would have to sign at least 5 more players. It's not happening.

Let me get this straight, you want to let Ray walk and not retain him, because that is the only way that your scenario "makes sense".

[GreenDreamer]

I don't know why people can't understand this but Ray Allen is not going to be traded. The chances of him getting traded are about 5%. The salary cap is going down next year and the Celtics are not looking to add payroll for next season.

In your example of Ray Allen for Hinrich and Deng the Celtics would be adding $20.3 million to their payroll for next season. Add that to the dollar for dollar luxury tax and it's $40.6 million added for next season. It's not going to happen. I don't understand why people can't grasp this concept.

No offense.

No offense, but your math is pretty shoddy. Hinrich and Deng will make approximately the same amount of money that Ray is making right NOW.

That's were you lose it. The Celtics are not resigning Ray Allen for $20 million.

I guess numbers really aren't your thing. They still have the other expiring deals. Maybe me repeating it again and again was confusing.

[Tricky Ricky]

I don't know why people can't understand this but Ray Allen is not going to be traded. The chances of him getting traded are about 5%. The salary cap is going down next year and the Celtics are not looking to add payroll for next season.

In your example of Ray Allen for Hinrich and Deng the Celtics would be adding $20.3 million to their payroll for next season. Add that to the dollar for dollar luxury tax and it's $40.6 million added for next season. It's not going to happen. I don't understand why people can't grasp this concept.

No offense.

What he said

[GreenDreamer]

If you're Danny, you look to improve by signing somebody who gets released int he enxt couple of months...or you try and trade a package of Tony, Scal, Giddens, Walker(add Baby and House, IF something really good comes up) for a Raja Bell, Maggette, or one of those solid vet guys...besides that, NOTHING WILL BE DONE.

That about sums it up. You think anything more then that will happen then you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

Trading for Maggette? The dude has one of the worst contracts in the game, and this is what the brain trust comes up with. Yeah, my scenario isn't that realistic. Instead we'll throw that money at a Paul Pierce wannabe, who is notoriously selfish, injury prone and doesn't play defense. That makes sense.... or we can wait for a team to HOPEFULLY cut a guy we like and then HOPE for him to come here. Hey!!! There's a plan. Hell, we got Marbury last season. He was so useful.

[BRUNiNHO91]

If you're Danny, you look to improve by signing somebody who gets released int he enxt couple of months...or you try and trade a package of Tony, Scal, Giddens, Walker(add Baby and House, IF something really good comes up) for a Raja Bell, Maggette, or one of those solid vet guys...besides that, NOTHING WILL BE DONE.

That about sums it up. You think anything more then that will happen then you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

Trading for Maggette? The dude has one of the worst contracts in the game, and this is what the brain trust comes up with. Yeah, my scenario isn't that realistic. Instead we'll throw that money at a Paul Pierce wannabe, who is notoriously selfish, injury prone and doesn't play defense. That makes sense.... or we can wait for a team to HOPEFULLY cut a guy we like and then HOPE for him to come here. Hey!!! There's a plan. Hell, we got Marbury last season. He was so useful.

I didn't know his contract was that bad, and it was really only an example of the 'type' of player we will try to get at the deadline. We are not trading Ray Allen this year man, forget that. Chances of Cleveland trading LeBron are probably bigger than us trading Ray. Unless the Hawks offer us Joe Johnson for him..or maybe Miami offers us Dwyane for him and Scal..don't think that will happen though, do you?
Marbury played well some games. But that's not the reason we lost. We lost last year because we didn't have KG, and we lost Powe in the 1st round and that just killed us..you know that..and that's about how it will go this year too..if we don't get EVERYBODY healthy for the playoffs, it doesn't matter what you do at the deadline..you won't win..not even if you trade Ray for Hinrich and Deng...sorry.

[darrendaye]

Would love to be able to trade Ray Allen, simply redistribute the overall impact he provides, and not skip a beat. But this is a highly unlikely scenario. While I like Hinrich, he is 8 notches below Ray Allen as a shooter.

Another thing, this premise of poor spacing with Daniels and TA is quite overblown especially considering 3 out of your top 4 bigs would prefer, or in the case of Big Baby are more effective, playing on the perimeter. Injuries are the biggest barrier, but, I see no problem running a second unit of House, TA, Daniels, Sheed, and Baby. Three shooters and two slashers. Injuries may prevent the needed chemistry from developing, but, your in the same boat bringing in a player by trade at this stage. Also, I think it's a foregone conclusion that the team will activate Ty Lue if they cannot find a good backup PG on the waiver wire.

[sully00]

One point that is irrefutable is without KG we cannot make a friggin jumper for our lives outside of Pierce and Ray. Rondo has been bailing us out a lot here but we do not want to count out on that Baby's motion is all gaffed with the thumb. Daniels and TA can't shoot on their best days and Eddie House is a problem to keep on the floor even when he is making shots.

That said moving Ray Allen to fix the problem is essentially throwing the towel in on the season, even for a comparable talent we will never get things ironed out for a postseason run. There is a reason the guy is playing the mins he is playing he is completely integral to almost all of our effective offensive line ups.

Mike Miller is the guy you get in a desperate attempt to replace an injured Ray Allen but that isn't a move you make intentionally there is a reason no team has ever played on is much better than .500 he is a big part of it. He is a good shooter and a solid all around player but he doesn't have a position can't stay with SG's or create enough offense to leverage and he isn't physical enough to play SF. If we can put him on the bench great but there are more attractive targets.

The Bulls are not going to move Deng he is their best and most effective player. On top of that he has a huge contract, even though the money is about right for a guy putting up 18/8, who is going to give up value to add a guy with 4 years and 48 mil and trouble staying healthy.

That said Hinrich is a guy I think that could be had for expirings at the deadline. He is a perfect fit for Boston in the sense that he can run the point and play the 2 and is comfortable coming off the bench but could be an in house replacement for Ray in the backcourt over the long run. His numbers are funky for sure but he is a better player than his numbers that are impacted by his perceived flexibility and the inability for his coaches carve him out a consistent role with the touches to get comfortable. He is getting there now and will be fine by the end of the season if a coach would just live with the slow start it would be over by DEC. He has been great in the postseason throughout his career.

Whatever you think of Ray he is absolutely necessary to this team's success. While I don't think that ownership is going to want to give him an extension on 19-20 mil they will find common ground on a contract. More importantly I think fans have to accept that this team is not going to maintain an 80+ mil dollar payroll. This payroll will cost them 5 mil more in tax next season just in the threshold lowering.

Look for contracts that will expire in line with KG and Sheed.