Trade Derrick Rose

[Three34]

I really don't think I'm integral to Derrick Rose's motivation.

Honestly I've hardly ever see you come in here and give the guy any kind of praise.

Look up. It just happened.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

He's not, because he hasn't played enough to qualify for the scoring title. But if we were to include all players this season, including the non-qualifiers - which means Ryan Bowen and Trey Gilder will be #1 and #2 in the league even though neither is in it any more - Ben Gordon is 139th out of 422. Derrick Rose is 272nd.

Lebron James is 36th, Carmelo Anthony is 81st, Kobe is 157.

Eric Dampier is 12th, Robin Lopez is 20th, Matt Bonner is 24th.

Hooray for TS%!

[Three34]

And that's why we use it in conjunction with usage percentage. Anthony is 3rd, behind only Wade and Coby Karl''s 5 minute sample size. James is 4th, Bryant is 5th, Rose is 16th.

Bonner is 268th, Lopez is 282nd, Dampier is 369th.

Shots get harder the more you take, and Rose is taking a lot and not scoring efficiently. His efficiency is actually down a smidge from last year, and while it should improve over time, it's going to have to improve a lot for him to be the player that some people already think he is.

But yes, I see what you did there. You successfully proved that Kobe is having a down year.

[DuckIII]

And that's why we use it in conjunction with usage percentage. Anthony is 3rd, behind only Wade and Coby Karl''s 5 minute sample size. James is 4th, Bryant is 5th, Rose is 16th.

But that isn't what you originally did, is it? But then when you did, it shows that Rose is 16th in the league based on that combined stat? Isn't that a good thing?

[Chicago-Bull-E]

And that's why we use it in conjunction with usage percentage..

hmm...

Rejoice, Chicago. After last night's performance, Derrick Rose finally became a more efficient scorer than Damien Wilkins. Up to 158th in the league in true shooting percentage! Yeah boy!!!! How about that!!!! Go to the true shooting percentage for all qualified players, find Brandon Rush and Andres Nocioni, and look UP UP UP!!!! Yeahhhhhh, rub that all around our faces. We need to suffer for our sins.

Rooooooo-sey! Roooooooo-sey!!!

...

I never called you a Rose hater, I said you are probably fond of him but you constantly bash him. Honestly I've hardly ever see you come in here and give the guy any kind of praise. Rather I often always see you comming into a thread, posting stats and saying "but Rose isn't that good according to this stat......

Me thinks Poohdini was spot on in his assessment of you. Jmo.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Damnit Duck, you beat me.

[Ben]

He's not, because he hasn't played enough to qualify for the scoring title. But if we were to include all players this season, including the non-qualifiers - which means Ryan Bowen and Trey Gilder will be #1 and #2 in the league even though neither is in it any more - Ben Gordon is 139th out of 422. Derrick Rose is 272nd.

Lebron James is 36th, Carmelo Anthony is 81st, Kobe is 157.

Eric Dampier is 12th, Robin Lopez is 20th, Matt Bonner is 24th.

Hooray for TS%!

Eh, forget ranking the players, b/c a lot of guys get bunched up with very little statistical variation. Bottom line is that Rose is far below average in TS%, and that's not good. (I think that 52.5% is around average.) It's never good to be far below average in an important statistical measure, and TS% is an important statistical measure. You will never see a superstar with a below average TS% for his career. Nor with a below-average TS% for more than, say, one or two years during his career, and usually then only if he's old and over the hill. (Clyde Drexler had a bad PER season-- still higher than Derrick's-- back around 1992, but it was far below his career average.) TS% is significant b/c it tells you about how efficiently the player scores, and efficient scoring is important. Right?

You can do a search for TS% rankings for players with at least 500 minutes played this year, and you'll see that Rose is right down there around the bottom third. Right there with Ben Wallace. So, yeah.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... _by=ts_pct

Can he improve? Absolutely. If he can just keep on drawing more contact and average 6 FTA per game, he'll go up a lot. And that'll be fine. (I don't expect him ever to be a real 3-point thread.) But he has to do it to be considered a really first-rate player. Lord knows he's not going to win those laurels based on his defense, even if it has improved a bit. Right now he's a very promising young player who has become our primary scorer but who doesn't run the court like a field general or defend his position extremely well or pull down a gazillion rebounds, and the one thing that he's doing very well-- scoring-- he's not doing all that efficiently. He needs to improve. That's just a realistic assessment.

[DuckIII]

Damnit Duck, you beat me.

Teamwork. Your use of quotes illustrates the point better.

[BULLS333]

i would never trade rose u can head to mil enjoy it ! when the trade deadline comes around or 2010 i bet youll be back hhaaa

[Three34]

And that's why we use it in conjunction with usage percentage. Anthony is 3rd, behind only Wade and Coby Karl''s 5 minute sample size. James is 4th, Bryant is 5th, Rose is 16th.

But that isn't what you originally did, is it?

Pretty much was. I said he was 158th out of qualifying players. I chose qualifying players so as to discount irrelevant players such as the three Chicago Bull E then brought up. So yes, I pretty much plumped for relevant peers and not Erick Dampier.

But then when you did, it shows that Rose is 16th in the league based on that combined stat?

No, he's 16th in the league in usage percentage. 158th in true shooting amongst qualifying players (out of 190), and 272nd overall (out of 422).

Isn't that a good thing?

Would be if it were true, but it is very very very not true.

[Three34]

Damnit Duck, you beat me.

Teamwork. Your use of quotes illustrates the point better.

You should probably go ahead and read what I actually wrote before you prematurely congratulate yourself on your spitroasting ability. Usage percentage is not a measurement of a guy's scoring efficiency; it measures how much he shoots. And Rose shoots a lot. But the scoring efficiency stats say that he's not good at being efficient. So since you asked if it was a good thing; no, no it isn't.

[Three34]

Let's make it even more relevant then. Of the 84 players to have scored more than 500 points this season, Derrick Rose is 76th in true shooting percentage. The 8 behind him are Thaddeus Young, Vince Carter, J.R. Smith, Corey Brewer, Brandon Jennings, Rodney Stuckey, Russell Wesbrook and Trevor Ariza.

If you want to cut out the Brewer types and go really for the go-to players, of the 50 players to have scored at least 650 points this year (which is 15 a game, ish), then Rose is 47th out of 50.

It is not a good thing, Duck.

[DuckIII]

Damnit Duck, you beat me.

Teamwork. Your use of quotes illustrates the point better.

You should probably go ahead and read what I actually wrote before you prematurely congratulate yourself on your spitroasting ability. Usage percentage is not a measurement of a guy's scoring efficiency; it measures how much he shoots. And Rose shoots a lot. But the scoring efficiency stats say that he's not good at being efficient. So since you asked if it was a good thing; no, no it isn't.

I'm finding your entire series of posts to be self-contradictory. That's either because they are, or because you suck at explaining yourself.

You came in with a heavy-handed smart ass post about Derrick Rose, got called on it, then said "well, you gotta consider usage" - which you hadn't done - and then said that Derrick's high usage creates tougher shots, which can negatively impact his TS to explain away why Melo and Kobe also don't rank well.

So, basically, I think your recent contribution to this thread is misleading, without merit, and just another chance for you to courageously go against the grain on a popular player.

EDIT: I shouldn't say without merit. The data has merit. The manner in which you presented it was misleading.

[Ben]

If you guys want to see how significant TS% can be, check out Gilbert Arenas. Compare 2006-07, before his major injuries, with this year. He's very comparable in many areas of the game except FTA, and his TS% suffers drastically as a result. As does his entire efficiency.
His rate of field goals attempted per minute is almost identical in the two seasons, his 3P% is almost identical, his FG% is very very close (41.8 in 2006-07, 41.1 this year), his usage rates are almost identical, and he actually averages significantly more assists per minute this season than in 2006-07.

But his PER was 24.0 in 2006-07 and it's 19.0 this year. And he averaged 3.6 more points per 36 minutes in 2006-07 than in 2009-10. Know what stat captures that decline? Yup, TS%.

His TS% was an above-average 56.5% in 2006-07 and is a below-average 51.1% this year. That's explained primarily by the difference in his FTA/game. In 2006-07 he averaged 9.7 FTA/ game, and this season he's averaging 6.5 FTA/game. (8.8 vs. 6.4 if you look at it per 36 minutes.)

Summary: a post-injury Gilbert Arenas is far less efficient offensively; that decline is depicted in his far lower TS% and is explained primarily by his lower rate of drawing free throw attempts.

However, I must say that the entire pissing-match approach that has developed around examining and debating these stats is pretty silly.

[Three34]

You came in with a heavy-handed smart ass post about Derrick Rose

It was sarcastic as all hell, you're damn right. But it was also factually accurate, because he IS 158th amongst qualified players in true shooting percentage.

got called on it,

Really? Where? Was it the guy who decided to insult Mongolians, the guy who talked about the Bulls offense being partially responsible for it, or the one who pithily brought up Robin Lopez in a bid to prove nothing?

No one disputed the stat until you msiread the whole 16th thing.

Sthen said "well, you gotta consider usage" - which you hadn't done

Yes I did, because I chose only players qualifying for the scoring total, so as to leave out the Bill Walkers and Trey Gilders of this world.

and then said that Derrick's high usage creates tougher shots, which can negatively impact his TS to explain away why Melo and Kobe also don't rank well.

Is there something wrong with that?

So, basically, I think your recent contribution to this thread is misleading, without merit, and just another chance for you to courageously go against the grain on a popular player.

And I think you always have to go for the reasons behind why someone says something rather than what they actually say. If I were to do the same, I'd boldly wager that this is because you're a lawyer. That's great, but if you'd like to stick to the point at hand, that'd be greater.

[BrooklynBulls]

Get Derrick Rose some spacing. 2% TS% jump, immediately. He has very certain flaws, flaws which could use correction- but a main one is the roster he's working with. It could not compliment him LESS offensively. Taking the talent of the players as an absolute (I do not contend that he has no talent with which to work...just talent that doesn't fit him), then I can't envision worse roster-construction.

I don't blame management- there was no preparing for Rose, and the rebuild really commences this offseason when 2/3rds of this entire roster disappear in all likelihood.

But here's my question: How can Derrick Rose, armed with a better jumpshot (according to 82games), taking more FTs per minute, actually be scoring less efficiently? Because he's having trouble finishing inside, and getting inside in the first place, because of the bevy of defenders waiting for him.

The guy, on a fully spaced offense, is a 53% TS scorer, right now. There's no real doubt there to me.

His jumper is going in 2.3% more of the time, despite him taking 2 more of them than last year.

The difference is that he's shooting 52% instead of last year's 58% inside, and he's taking a shot less a game inside, as well. I am wholly unconcerned with this statistic because the regression is not due to anything that is Rose's fault except perhaps the early-season achilles injury.

[DuckIII]

and then said that Derrick's high usage creates tougher shots, which can negatively impact his TS to explain away why Melo and Kobe also don't rank well.

Is there something wrong with that?

Yes. Because you originally used TS in a vaccuum, and only then clarified why it must be used in conjunction with usage when someone illustrated that other excellent players also have questionable TS rankings. In other words, you knew how to paint the more accurate picture, but didn't while being "sarcastic as hell" as you put it.

Its misleading.

[BrooklynBulls]

BTW, the current league TS% is right about 53.8%.

[Three34]

Get Derrick Rose some spacing. 2% TS% jump, immediately. He has very certain flaws, flaws which could use correction- but a main one is the roster he's working with. It could not compliment him LESS offensively. Taking the talent of the players as an absolute (I do not contend that he has no talent with which to work...just talent that doesn't fit him), then I can't envision worse roster-construction.

I don't blame management- there was no preparing for Rose, and the rebuild really commences this offseason when 2/3rds of this entire roster disappear in all likelihood.

But here's my question: How can Derrick Rose, armed with a better jumpshot (according to 82games), taking more FTs per minute, actually be scoring less efficiently? Because he's having trouble finishing inside, and getting inside in the first place, because of the bevy of defenders waiting for him.

The guy, on a fully spaced offense, is a 53% TS scorer, right now. There's no real doubt there to me.

I agree, which is why I'm not unduly bothered that his efficiency has actually gone down since last year. Especially with the injury and all. While still bad, his free throw ratio has increased a bit, which is good. But he's still got to get that up there. And he's also got to hit more freaking free throws because 75% from point guard isn't really good enough.

[Ben]

Get Derrick Rose some spacing. 2% TS% jump, immediately. He has very certain flaws, flaws which could use correction- but a main one is the roster he's working with. It could not compliment him LESS offensively. Taking the talent of the players as an absolute (I do not contend that he has no talent with which to work...just talent that doesn't fit him), then I can't envision worse roster-construction.

I don't blame management- there was no preparing for Rose, and the rebuild really commences this offseason when 2/3rds of this entire roster disappear in all likelihood.

But here's my question: How can Derrick Rose, armed with a better jumpshot (according to 82games), taking more FTs per minute, actually be scoring less efficiently? Because he's having trouble finishing inside, and getting inside in the first place, because of the bevy of defenders waiting for him.

The guy, on a fully spaced offense, is a 53% TS scorer, right now. There's no real doubt there to me.

His jumper is going in 2.3% more of the time, despite him taking 2 more of them than last year.

The difference is that he's shooting 52% instead of last year's 58% inside, and he's taking a shot less a game inside, as well. I am wholly unconcerned with this statistic because the regression is not due to anything that is Rose's fault except perhaps the early-season achilles injury.

That's a good analysis. coldfish had some great posts earlier in the year showing how defenses would collapse on Rose and pack the lane, taking away his easiest shots and complicating many of the others.

He still needs to get up near the 6 FTA/game level. That's what I really want from him. Take the damned contact inside, initiate it, and the calls will start coming (even though he gets screwed too often now).