Seriously, will these players opt out?

[campybatman]

That is to say, who'll opt out, be traded before the trade deadline this season or agree to sign extensions after the season.

Here's a list of notable players who can opt out of the last year (2010-2011) of their contract to become free agents this off-season.


Paul Pierce - $21.5M
Eddy Curry - $10.5M
Chris Bosh - $17.1M
LeBron James - $17.1M
TJ Ford - $8.5M
Michael Redd - $18.3M
Tyson Chandler - $12.7M
Dwyane Wade - $17.1M
Dirk Nowitzki - $21.5M
Yao Ming - $17.6M
Kenyon Martin - $16.5M
Joel Przybilla - $7.4M
Amare Stoudemire - $17.6M


Among those listed, players such as Pierce, Curry, Ford, Redd, Chandler and Przybilla I think it's very unlikely they'll elect to opt out knowing that they won't be offered equal or more than what they'll earn in that last year of their current contract. The others on here I believe can command at least equal to the final year's salary. However, the most interesting name on here is Nowitzki because his team's owner is Mark Cuban. For this reason, unlike Pierce, I think he could opt out and resign for somewhat lesser money but could be offered close enough money to his $21.5M. He's a year younger than Pierce and he's a big man. If Cuban thinks highly enough of him, I can see Nowitzki's new contract being in the low to middle teens annually. Conversely, Pierce has deferred enough of his statistics (namely his scoring) in recent years that he probably is no longer regarded in high esteem by other general managers.

The player who's in the most advantageous situation is, of course, LeBron.

[Captain_Caveman]

I would offer Pierce 3 years, $45m in the hopes that he opts out.

[campybatman]

On second thought, perhaps it's unlikely that Nowitzki will opt out as well. But his reasoning not to is different. As said, if he did opt out, there would be a bigger market for him than Pierce. Therefore, more incentive to do so.

Nowitzki is scheduled to make $21.5 million next season, but opting out this summer would allow him to sign another long-term contract before the league's collective bargaining agreement expires in the summer of 2011. The new CBA is expected to be more restrictive toward player salaries.

"In this business, you know how it is, but I hadn't planned on opting out,'' he said. "As far as I'm concerned, I want to finish my career in Dallas. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.''

http://nba.fanhouse.com/2009/12/11/nowi ... ee-agency/

[irie]

The only two players on that list that I could see opting out are Amare and Wade. They're the only players on the list that hate playing for their current team and can actually get similar contracts on the free agent market. Curry, Ford, Redd, Chandler, Yao, Kenyon, and Pryzbilla would never get that kind of money again so they will never even consider opting out. I doubt Pierce will; as much as he talks he's still all about himself, and I think he'll take his money. Dirk I don't think will. He's on his last big contract might as well soak it up. I don't think LeBron or Bosh will either, I think they'll sign extensions.

Chris Bosh - $17.1M
LeBron James - $17.1M\

[DumbyTheWizard]

Lebron will 100% opt out. After opting out he could get a bigger contract even if he stays in Cleveland. the Max for a 8th year player is higher then for a7th year player which means he could get a raise by opting and resigning. Same goes for Wade and Bosh

[campybatman]

If anyone listed besides Bosh is traded before the trade deadline, I'll be shocked. Because I can see Bosh being traded. Obviously, he'll say the right things to the media but I think he wants to play elsewhere. I'm actually intrigued to see whether or not Bragnani can emerge with Bosh gone.

[sully00]

Paul Pierce - $21.5M - Yes
Eddy Curry - $10.5M - Hell No
Chris Bosh - $17.1M - Yes
LeBron James - $17.1M - Yes
TJ Ford - $8.5M - Hell No
Michael Redd - $18.3M - Hell No
Tyson Chandler - $12.7M - Hell No
Dwyane Wade - $17.1M - Yes
Dirk Nowitzki - $21.5M - Yes
Yao Ming - $17.6M - Hell No
Kenyon Martin - $16.5M - Hell No

There is almost no reason for those 5 players not to opt out, all would get a max free agent contract from teams with cap space. Obviously there first choice would be to stay with their current teams in a competitive situation but that doesn't mean you don't opt out. In the case of Dirk and Pierce sure they probably wouldn't get 21 mil but sacrificing 4-5 mil next season for long term security is a no brainer. Next season things get more complicated especially for Paul and Dirk, they will clearly be over 36 contracts that have to be front loaded and teams will not have the available cap space.

Pierce has hinted that he is willing to take a deal in the 15-16 mil annually Vince Carter's 5 year 80 mil extension is what would make sense for Pierce and Dirk. The way Carter's deal was set up was with a low year 1 number 13.3 mil and on 4 of the 18.9 mil guaranteed in year 5 that part I don't think will be as likely but it was worth noting.

[Bill Lumbergh]

Paul Pierce - $21.5M - Yes
Eddy Curry - $10.5M - Hell No
Chris Bosh - $17.1M - Yes
LeBron James - $17.1M - Yes
TJ Ford - $8.5M - Hell No
Michael Redd - $18.3M - Hell No
Tyson Chandler - $12.7M - Hell No
Dwyane Wade - $17.1M - Yes
Dirk Nowitzki - $21.5M - Yes
Yao Ming - $17.6M - Hell No
Kenyon Martin - $16.5M - Hell No

There is almost no reason for those 5 players not to opt out, all would get a max free agent contract from teams with cap space. Obviously there first choice would be to stay with their current teams in a competitive situation but that doesn't mean you don't opt out. In the case of Dirk and Pierce sure they probably wouldn't get 21 mil but sacrificing 4-5 mil next season for long term security is a no brainer. Next season things get more complicated especially for Paul and Dirk, they will clearly be over 36 contracts that have to be front loaded and teams will not have the available cap space.

Pierce has hinted that he is willing to take a deal in the 15-16 mil annually Vince Carter's 5 year 80 mil extension is what would make sense for Pierce and Dirk. The way Carter's deal was set up was with a low year 1 number 13.3 mil and on 4 of the 18.9 mil guaranteed in year 5 that part I don't think will be as likely but it was worth noting.

Nobody's giving Pierce anything remotely close to 80 mil over five years starting next year when he'll be 33. Completely unrealistic. Highly doubtful that Pierce would opt out of his contract next year. He won't command anything close to 21.5 next year, and any team that signs him would likely not go over 3 years, something like 30M total. This is not 28 year old Pierce any longer. 5 years/80M=total pipedream.

[sully00]

Mencius

He doesn't have to command "21 mil" that is the whole point. He needs a team that wants to commit 13 mil in cap space to him next season.

Now I don't think he can get a 5 year FA deal because of the over 36 rule he might be able to get a 5 year extension. But where do you get this sense that teams aren't going to spend on top tier players?

Boston gave KG 80 over 4 years to start at 32 years old. Boston is already into Pierce for 21 mil so 4 years 60 doesn't seem so crazy.

Anyway I don't think with the money out there Pierce would have a problem getting a contract and more importantly the Boston Celtics would be over the cap with KG/Wallace/Rondo what do they do without Pierce and Allen?

A team that is trying to recruit James, Wade or Bosh could offer to team them with Pierce. So they hand out the max someone and then get Pierce on a deal that starts at 13mil. 4 years 60 mil right there.

Whether it is 4 for 60-65 or 5 for 75-80 isn't the point, the point is that he can still get that kind of money this off season. Now your 3 for 30 mil is probably what he is looking at a year from now with less money and a year older. So that makes it 4 for 51 that is why Pierce and Dirk opt out if they don't just sign extensions.

[campybatman]

Well, it looks like Bosh and Stoudemire are almost guaranteed to be traded. I guess I'm more surprised by Phoenix than Toronto in their seemingly willingness to move their franchise power forward. But then, Stoudemire has had some serious injuries of late. I'm somewhat surprised by this because at least the Raptors still have Bragnani, Turkoglu and possibly have something in DeRozan. Whereas, the Suns look similar to Boston in that their best players are aging stars: Nash and Hill. I hardly view Richardson as a star even though he's paid like one.

With Stoudemire having undergone knee and eye surgeries in recent years, there are differing perspectives on his market value. Nevertheless, Stoudemire has made a strong comeback from eye surgery this season – averaging 20.9 points and 8.6 rebounds – and impressed rival executives and scouts.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=a ... &type=lgns

[Bill Lumbergh]

Mencius

He doesn't have to command "21 mil" that is the whole point. He needs a team that wants to commit 13 mil in cap space to him next season.

Now I don't think he can get a 5 year FA deal because of the over 36 rule he might be able to get a 5 year extension. But where do you get this sense that teams aren't going to spend on top tier players?

Boston gave KG 80 over 4 years to start at 32 years old. Boston is already into Pierce for 21 mil so 4 years 60 doesn't seem so crazy.

Anyway I don't think with the money out there Pierce would have a problem getting a contract and more importantly the Boston Celtics would be over the cap with KG/Wallace/Rondo what do they do without Pierce and Allen?

A team that is trying to recruit James, Wade or Bosh could offer to team them with Pierce. So they hand out the max someone and then get Pierce on a deal that starts at 13mil. 4 years 60 mil right there.

Whether it is 4 for 60-65 or 5 for 75-80 isn't the point, the point is that he can still get that kind of money this off season. Now your 3 for 30 mil is probably what he is looking at a year from now with less money and a year older. So that makes it 4 for 51 that is why Pierce and Dirk opt out if they don't just sign extensions.

Yeah, well, we just disgaree. If he opted out, I definitely don't think he could get 4/60-65 or 5/75-80 starting at age 33 next year. No chance. Even 4 for 51 is a bit of a stretch for what I think he could get this summer if he ops out. I just don't see a team committing that to a 33 year old Pierce (at the front end of his contract), with all the mileage he's got on him. I see it as 3/33M max if he opts out, in which case he'd not recoup what he loses by opting out, and I don't see him leaving money on the table. Playing out his present contract at 21.5 and then signing a lesser deal at say 2 years 18-20M, or 3 years 27M is still better than what what I think he could get with a new contract if he opted out this year. As always with opinions, we shall see.

[sully00]

Steve Nash got 2 years 22mil
Shawn Marion got 5 years 40 mil
Jason Kidd got 3 years 25 mil
Rip Hamilton got 3 years 37.5 mil to start at age 32

These were extensions with no cap space available to sign these players.

Turkoglu got 5 years 53 mil.

Now Paul Pierce having one of the best shooting seasons of a HOF career and teams loaded with cap space isn't going to do better than 35-36 year old PGs. What does Manu Ginobli get in your world the MLE if he is lucky? What do you see Dirk getting?

Hell the biggest guy of all isn't even on the list and that is Kobe but he better chill out being 32 and two extra seasons and all those playoff games nobody will be interested in signing him long term.

Guys are going to get hit financially this off season but it isn't going to be the top dogs it will be the mid level guys not seeing the money. The other thing is teams are going to be playing for championships or rebuilding guys aren't going to get paid for "upside."

[jmr07019]

I'm not sure how many teams will have money to sign a a FA at or over 15 mil but I'd be willing to bet teams would rather offer they're big contract to any of the following over Pierce:

1. LeBron
2. Wade
3. Johnson
4. Bosh
5. Amare
6. Gay
7. Boozer

All are much younger and either in or entering their prime. After those 7 eat up all or a good chunk of their new teams cap space who is gonna give Pierce 15 mil a year. I think he would command somewhere around 3 years 34 mil or 4 years 40 if he opted out. Personally i'd rather Pierce just play out next year so we can get him on a fair deal and have the extra money to add another MLE guy. I think thats what he will do as well. We'd probably be able to resign him around 2 years 18 or 3 years 25 (hometown discount since he just got his 21.5) as long as we're still competitive, which we should be.

[Bill Lumbergh]

Steve Nash got 2 years 22mil

Did he opt out of a much bigger contract to get 2/22? No. That would have been stupid of him.

Shawn Marion got 5 years 40 mil

Marion's 31. Pierce will be 33 by the time next season starts. I don't think anybody's giving Pierce 5 years next year. Not happening.

Jason Kidd got 3 years 25 mil

Roughly 8.5M seems appropriate for his production this year. Doubt he'll be worth it in two years, but Cuban's got deep pockets, to be sure. Again with him, he didn't opt out of a more lucrative previous contract to sign his present contract.

Rip Hamilton got 3 years 37.5 mil to start at age 32

He will have been 31 for the over half the season. I think Dumars overpaid the guy. Again with him, did he opt of a previous more lucrative contract to sign his present one? I doubt it.

Turkoglu got 5 years 53 mil.

He's 30. Getting a contract at 30 and one at 33 is obviously a big difference.

Now Paul Pierce having one of the best shooting seasons of a HOF career and teams loaded with cap space isn't going to do better than 35-36 year old PGs.

Better than 2/22M or 3/25. Yeah, he can do better. Probably more like 3/33M. Still not enough to walk away from his last year at 21.5

What does Manu Ginobli get in your world the MLE if he is lucky?

About 3/28M in my view.

What do you see Dirk getting?

Dirk's 31 and a better player than Pierce. I don't know what he'll be getting, but 5/75 would not be out of the question.

Hell the biggest guy of all isn't even on the list and that is Kobe but he better chill out being 32 and two extra seasons and all those playoff games nobody will be interested in signing him long term.

Sure, Kobe will be 32 at the end of his contract, but he's a much better player than Pierce and will make more. Obviously.

Look, Pierce is not opting out of 21.5M next year. He'd be foolish to. It's not happening.

[sully00]

I'm not sure how many teams will have money to sign a a FA at or over 15 mil but I'd be willing to bet teams would rather offer they're big contract to any of the following over Pierce:

1. LeBron
2. Wade
3. Johnson
4. Bosh
5. Amare
6. Gay
7. Boozer

All are much younger and either in or entering their prime. After those 7 eat up all or a good chunk of their new teams cap space who is gonna give Pierce 15 mil a year. I think he would command somewhere around 3 years 34 mil or 4 years 40 if he opted out. Personally i'd rather Pierce just play out next year so we can get him on a fair deal and have the extra money to add another MLE guy. I think thats what he will do as well. We'd probably be able to resign him around 2 years 18 or 3 years 25 (hometown discount since he just got his 21.5) as long as we're still competitive, which we should be.

First of all understand the numbers. Wade, Bosh, Amare, LeBron are going to cost 17 mil, not 15 these contracts on a 5 year deal will be over 100 mil. Boozer's contract has been an anchor at 11.5 mil why would anyone give him 15 mil look at Elton Brand. Gay is only going to cost about 12.5 on a 5 year 80 mil deal so that is certainly something but who do you think Wade or Lebron want to play with? The point is you can sign Paul Pierce to a 4 year 60 mil with a starting salary of 13.3 mil.

There are two sides to this. Sure you can want Pierce to play out the 21 mil in hopes of him resigning at a lower rate in a year but that is also bad math and why would Paul Pierce want that?

So Paul plays it out and gets 21mil and re-signs for 3 years 33 mil. He gets 4 years 54 mil less than what he probably gets in FA this season, this is why guys opt out. But the team is already at the tax threshold for next season with 7 players so every move they make costs double. So letting Ray walk and just using the MLE, 1st rounder, and 5 minimums you are at about 11.5 mil more in salary all taxed. So the taxes in one year already make that 54 mil 62mil.

Now if we sign Paul to a 5 year 80 mil extension (just using this because I can use Carter's numbers) his number for next year is 13.3 mil basically he reduces the teams payroll by 8 mil and saves them another 8mil in taxes, or at least gives them the money to add to the roster while we are trying to win a title.