Let's tank for John Wall

[Donald Kaufman]

We aren't winning ish this year.

[Jvaughn]

This was the same talk over on the Bulls board a few months ago. Not worth it man. If you guys lost every game until the end of the year New Jersey would still have a better chance at him. And what would you guys do with Tony Parker if you did get Wall?

And I like Wall, but for some reason I see him being a bust. Too much hype I think. Might just be me though. He might come out and be one of the top PG's in the league. I hope he does.

[LyMinh]

I agree.

[Nolan]

We'd basically have to lose every game left in the season to compete with the Nets for the first pick.

[Donald Kaufman]

Maybe not. The Nets are on a winning streak at the moment.

[blizzard]

LOL, they won a game against a Camby and Davis-less Clippers, and lost to the woeful Wizards, hardly a "winning streak" in my book.

[Donald Kaufman]

It was a joke.

[co_laper]

This rodeo trip will be important for us. If we don't do well, we might see the Spurs fall to 9th or 10th. If that happens, a lot of things can happen this season. For one thing, it could trigger the front office to make some serious changes.

Last year, I thought we're one impact player away from the Lakers. I thought Jefferson and Dice coming in puts us in the same talent level. I'm starting to lose hope. I'm feeling like we're still an allstar away from being in their level.

[Donald Kaufman]

Yeah, RRT is make or break for our season. No matter what happens though, I don't see anyone in the west beating LA in a playoff series, no matter how average they've been lately.

I thought last season was an anomaly, in that the Lakers winning the conference by 11 games and us getting knocked out in the 1st round. But it looks like it was just a sign of things to come.

[SApuro_]

We only tank for someone named Duncan or Robinson...we have standards for crying out loud.

[LA Titletown]

Tank again???

[Blame Rasho]

Eh...nah...

Anyways... if this is the end of the road... I am thankful for the years that we were up on top.

[Donald Kaufman]

Absolutely. We had a decade where we were a second round lock at least. Four titles to boot, can't complain about that at all. It has to end sometime.

[tsherkin]

The funny part is that even if you have the worst record in the league, you only have a 1-in-4 chance of getting him. The worst team rarely actually gets the #1 overall pick, so being the worst isn't desirable. You generally want to have like 27 wins or so to have the best shot at it.

Meantime...

Duncan just needs a little more help. Someone younger, someone probably known more for defense, but they could spice up their O, too.

One of San Antonio's biggest issues is that only 3 guys are playing 30+ mpg and none of them are playing 33+ mpg.

You get Manu for about two quarters, you get Duncan, Jefferson and Parker for about 2.5, and then what? George Hill is pretty good for about two quarters, Dice is still useful, Blair's a great rebounder...

And what else? Bogans has started 3/4s of the games and is playing about 21 mpg, which is kind of crazy. The Spurs are 8th in offense and 10th in defense, which is nice, but not the makings of contention. They're underperforming compared to their Pythagorean projection by about 4 wins and are 8th in SoS-adjusted margin of victory, and blow against good teams.

The Battier/Salmons 3-way trade from the Trade Thread is kind of interesting. Not the type of scorer that'd be ideal in Salmons, especially because he looks like crap this year despite continuing to shoot well from downtown. He looks really bad without Gordon, isn't a great athletic specimen and doesn't give you a hell of a lot aside from a willingness to handle the ball and shoot a lot.

Battier's a little older than preferred, but young enough for a contend-now kind of team like the Spurs. He'd be the new Bowen, only without FT liability issues. The various Dalembert propositions are interesting.

The Spurs could stand to improve on the offensive glass; it doesn't much matter, I mean the Lakers are only like 2 points better at 27.2% compared to 27.0 for the Spurs, but if you're San Antonio and looking at ways of improving, that's one. The Spurs, of course, are also 7th overall in eFG%, so the relative merits of offensive rebounding aren't as critical compared to L.A., which is 15th.

One thing the Spurs royally suck at on offense is drawing fouls; they're 21st in the league at doing that, and it's the separation between them being a good offense (like now) and being a truly elite offense. The Spurs are more than 1% below league average, and about 4% away from being very good at it. This would come from a good, athletic scoring perimeter player. George Hill isn't great at this; not bad, but not great. Parker and Duncan are both decent at about 36% and Manu's very good at it, but Manu plays like 27 mpg and they need a 40% FTA/FGA player playing more than 30 mpg.

What else? Lots of room to improve on the defensive end, but defensive rebounding isn't one of those areas, because the Spurs are 4th in the league in DREB%. The Magic, Cavs and Bucks are the top 3 defensive rebounding teams (in descending order).

Where else are there problems, though? The Spurs are 3rd-worst in the league at forcing turnovers (only Toronto and Phoenix are worse, the two worst defenses in the league, though Toronto's stats are skewed by a truly brutal start to the season and they've been way better for about 20 games). The Spurs are 7th in opponent eFG%. You'll notice Boston, L.A., Orlando and Cleveland among the teams ahead of the Spurs. Also Chicago and the Thunder, surprisingly. Cleveland's first, Orlando, L.A. and Boston 3rd, 4th and 5th, respectively. The Spurs could stand to limit that. 3P% is the killer there, as the Spurs are 15th in the league, just above league-average in opponent 3P%.

The Lakers are the best in the league at that, with Boston a distant second. Orlando and L.A. happen to both be better at limiting fouls, too, above San Antonio in opponent FT/FTA. You'll also notice that the Spurs don't block as many shots as their opponents, mostly because they're old and relatively unathletic.

So there are clear indicators as to why San Antonio isn't among the elite.

Having a peak back at the last time the Spurs won the title for point of comparison, the first thing you notice is that the Spurs were a much, MUCH better team than they are right now. First of all, they won 58 games and this team is on pace to win 47 or 48 (and their PythW was 64).

Then you notice that they were a top-5 offense and the second-best defense in the league.

Until 08-09, the Spurs were one of the 3 best defensive teams in the league every year of Duncan's career. They were 1st, 3rd, 1st and 2nd during their title seasons.

So the defensive side of it is a real problem, which I'm sure everyone here has noticed.

A trend that goes with those numbers? Duncan played 39.3, 39.3, 33.4 and 34.1 mpg in the title seasons, compared to 32.2 this year. That's hurting; he's older, so it's tough to expect it of him, but the Spurs need more of him. They'll get it in the playoffs, but if they're not getting it during the regular season, they need it to come from somewhere else, and no one on the roster is bringing it to a sufficient level.

So the big thing, IMO, to be looking for is an athletic slasher who draws fouls and another defensive big. Easier said than done, of course.

The blatantly obvious ones to consider are, of course, Kevin Martin and Samuel Dalembert.

There's always Corey Maggette. People rip on him for various reasons, mostly durability, but he's a good FT shooter who draws a ton of fouls, scores well and rebounds well.

If you could pry him away from the Clippers, Eric Gordon would be a good choice (and don't forget to steal DeAndre Jordan, too). Camby wouldn't hurt, for various reasons. Iguodala is apparently available.

And while he doesn't satisfy the FT requirement or the defensive issue, a really good option would be to try and pry Ben Gordon away from Detroit. He's having a terrible season that doesn't reflect his ability, especially after a half-decade of precedent. He's a hyper-athletic 40%+ 3pt threat waiting to happen again (plus, he's had a groin injury bugging him of late).

Lots of options.

No way you get Tyreke Evans, probably won't get Eric Gordon, but there are a few options out there. Defense, of course, is the primary concern, so guys like Battier, Iguodala, DeAndre Jordan, Marcus Camby and what-not are the clear choices as far as targets, IMO.

Sorry for the long-winded post.

[TAI8]

We don't need another slasher/scorer..We already have enough of those..The Spurs offense as of right now is good enough to win a championship..We won championships before with the 11th, 7th, and 8th best offense...which is in the neighborhood of where our offense stands right now. In addition I don't think many people are aware of this but our offense was as HIGH AS 4TH IN THE LEAGUE, HIGHEST EVER IN THE DUNCAN ERA...it was only til the Charlotte game that threw us off and initiated a stretch of offensive disarray..It's not a big deal because it coincided with Pop deciding to shake things up a bit and putting out different starting lineups..It has to be said that our main guys (Ginobili, Jefferson, and Duncan) are playing with a more restrained sense in order to preserve their bodies for the playoffs which is why we're not drawing as many fouls, but it doesn't mean we can't..

[Donald Kaufman]

There may not be a playoffs to preserve anything for, the way we're playing.

It doesn't matter how good our offense is, without solid D and rebounding it's not going to get us anywhere. Look at GS and Phx - how far does their high octane offense get them?

[Blame Rasho]

We need a difference maker and the draft isn't going to produce a difference maker...

[tsherkin]

We don't need another slasher/scorer..We already have enough of those..The Spurs offense as of right now is good enough to win a championship..We won championships before with the 11th, 7th, and 8th best offense...which is in the neighborhood of where our offense stands right now.

Well, as I said, the offense as it is now is acceptable and defense is clearly the priority. But if you can't build defensively, then you build with offense, right? I was offering alternatives.

[Donald Kaufman]

If we can't stop the other team from scoring, it doesn't matter how good our offense is. And we're not running and gunning either, we don't have the legs for that.

[tsherkin]

If we can't stop the other team from scoring, it doesn't matter how good our offense is. And we're not running and gunning either, we don't have the legs for that.

Again, I don't disagree. Dalembert alone would help. Battier would be great. There are several intriguing pieces. It just needs to get done, lol.