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The argument against a high priced RB

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The argument against a high priced RB 

Post#1 » by ReasonablySober » Mon Nov 26, 2007 4:08 pm

From King's column, this is mostly about taking a back high in the draft:

2. I think I don't care how good Darren McFadden looked last Friday, and if you saw how he steamrolled LSU in Baton Rouge, you know he looked like a future star in the NFL. Probably. I wouldn't use a high first-round pick on him. Of the top 50 running backs in the NFL entering this weekend (ranked by rushing yards), 30 were not first-round picks. In my team rankings this week, I've got New England, Indianapolis, Dallas, Green Bay and Pittsburgh as my top five. The Patriots (11-0) have a running game by committee. Tony Dungy of the 9-2 Colts has given CFL refugee Kenton Keith 9.0 carries a game. The 10-1 Packers have had rushing efforts of 104, 55, 119, 88 and 101 yards from Ryan Grant in the last month. Grant, an undrafted free-agent by the Giants in 2005, entered camp fifth on the Giants' depth chart this summer, then was traded to Green Bay for a sixth-round draft choice. Dallas (10-1) has Julius Jones and Marion Barber III manning the running game. Jones was the 43rd player picked in the draft when he came out, Barber the 109th. Undrafted college free-agent Willie Parker -- who couldn't get consistent playing time at North Carolina -- has 3,624 yards over the last two years and 10 games for the 7-3 Steelers. More than any position in football, running back is the one you can find players from the most disparate sources.


But I think you can take it a bit further and extrapolate it to using big money on a free agent running back as well.

I was listening to the radio this weekend and one of the analysts was talking about Shaun Alexander and how he appears to be resting on that fat contract. That he's perfectly happy to sit on the sidelines. Larry Johnson was also mentioned.

I don't know if that's true, but whoever was on the radio (it might have been Keyshawn Johnson) said something along the lines that the backs that make little are the ones that are going to run harder for you. They haven't yet cashed in on that big pay day so they'll bust their asses like there's no tomorrow.

I've long been a proponent of getting that superstar type runningback. I wanted the Packers to deal up to grab Reggie Bush. I was largely in favor of moving up and taking Peterson. I've said that I would deal picks to move up and take McFadden.

But King and Keyshawn make a good argument that it's not needed, or even a good idea. Part of King's argument is it's such a risky position to dump cash into. Your one knee injury away from tens of millions of wasted dollars.

Then you look at the effectiveness of the two back system a lot of the great teams employ. Maroney/Faulk, Jones/Barber, etc.

And then you have the no names that are putting up great numbers when given the chance. Ryan Grant obviously isn't the only one. Maurice Morris, Michael Turner, Kolby Smith, Justin Fargas, Earnest Graham, Adrian Peterson (Chi)...these are the backups without the big contracts and they're running like they should be starters.

It isn't that they're against taking a runningback in round one. It's taking a runningback high in round one. There's a mountain of difference between investing 52 million with 26 guaranteed in Bush, and 10 million for 4 guaranteed in Addai.

I could be turned against the idea of a McFadden.
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Post#2 » by El Duderino » Mon Nov 26, 2007 10:51 pm

If McFadden becomes a total stud RB, he's worth a top 5 pick, if he's only just good, he's not worth it. Kinda like QB's.

I do think he'll be a stud, but i never thought Reggie Bush would because he doesn't run well between the tackles. I figured Bush would be alot how he currently is except a bit better just RB than he's turned out. It's alot easier for a pure speed back like Bush to run outside nearly every down while in college, in the NFL though, there is just to much speed to do that all the time.
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Post#3 » by paulpressey25 » Tue Nov 27, 2007 5:00 am

I don't know if Peter King is an original, since there was a great New York Times article on this in their Sunday edition. I'm guessing King pilfered his thoughts from it.

Here's an excerpt:

"...Running backs may be the most interchangeable parts of a football team. Mel Kiper Jr., the N.F.L. draft expert for ESPN, said he would never choose one in the first round.

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Re: The argument against a high priced RB 

Post#4 » by TheGhostDog » Tue Nov 27, 2007 5:14 am

DrugBust wrote:From King's column, this is mostly about taking a back high in the draft:

2. I think I don't care how good Darren McFadden looked last Friday, and if you saw how he steamrolled LSU in Baton Rouge, you know he looked like a future star in the NFL. Probably. I wouldn't use a high first-round pick on him. Of the top 50 running backs in the NFL entering this weekend (ranked by rushing yards), 30 were not first-round picks.


In another forum I ripped King as having no imagination and getting lost in details, so of course honor demands that I come up with a good counter argument. In this case, I say Carpe Diem when it comes to drafting RBs. Why?

Of 21* modern era running backs currently in the pro football Hall of Fame, all but 2 were drafted in the top 20 picks of their respective drafts. Of the two backs that weren't drafted high, Thurman Thomas probably should have been but for a senior year knee injury at Oklahoma State. Only Leroy Kelly was a true late-round gem. In other words, when it comes to drafting running backs, no guts no glory.

Here's the list if you feel like reminiscing:

Marcus Allen, 10th pick, 1982 draft
Jim Brown 6 '57
Earl Campbell 1 '78
Larry Csonka 8 '68
Eric Dickerson 2 '83
Tony Dorsett 2 '77
Frank Gifford 11 '52
Franco Harris 13 '72
John Henry Johnson 18(2nd) '52
Paul Hornung 1 '57
Leroy Kelly 8th round! '64
Ollie Matson 3 '52
Hugh McElhenny 9 '52
Lenny Moore 9 '56
Walter Payton 4 '75
John Riggins 6 '71
Barry Sanders 3 '89
Gale Sayers 4 '65
OJ Simpson 1 '69
Jim Taylor 15(2nd) '58
Thurman Thomas 2nd round (was injured) '88


http://www.profootballhof.com/hof/positions.jsp

* There are 25 modern era backs listed, but military service affected the draft availability of 4 HoFers, so I only included the 21 remaining.
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Re: The argument against a high priced RB 

Post#5 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Nov 27, 2007 5:57 am

TheGhostDog wrote:
DrugBust wrote:From King's column, this is mostly about taking a back high in the draft:

2. I think I don't care how good Darren McFadden looked last Friday, and if you saw how he steamrolled LSU in Baton Rouge, you know he looked like a future star in the NFL. Probably. I wouldn't use a high first-round pick on him. Of the top 50 running backs in the NFL entering this weekend (ranked by rushing yards), 30 were not first-round picks.


In another forum I ripped King as having no imagination and getting lost in details, so of course honor demands that I come up with a good counter argument. In this case, I say Carpe Diem when it comes to drafting RBs. Why?

Of 21* modern era running backs currently in the pro football Hall of Fame, all but 2 were drafted in the top 20 picks of their respective drafts. Of the two backs that weren't drafted high, Thurman Thomas probably should have been but for a senior year knee injury at Oklahoma State. Only Leroy Kelly was a true late-round gem. In other words, when it comes to drafting running backs, no guts no glory.

Here's the list if you feel like reminiscing:

Marcus Allen, 10th pick, 1982 draft
Jim Brown 6 '57
Earl Campbell 1 '78
Larry Csonka 8 '68
Eric Dickerson 2 '83
Tony Dorsett 2 '77
Frank Gifford 11 '52
Franco Harris 13 '72
John Henry Johnson 18(2nd) '52
Paul Hornung 1 '57
Leroy Kelly 8th round! '64
Ollie Matson 3 '52
Hugh McElhenny 9 '52
Lenny Moore 9 '56
Walter Payton 4 '75
John Riggins 6 '71
Barry Sanders 3 '89
Gale Sayers 4 '65
OJ Simpson 1 '69
Jim Taylor 15(2nd) '58
Thurman Thomas 2nd round (was injured) '88


http://www.profootballhof.com/hof/positions.jsp

* There are 25 modern era backs listed, but military service affected the draft availability of 4 HoFers, so I only included the 21 remaining.


That's 25 backs in the last 50 years. I don't know about using that as an argument.
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Re: The argument against a high priced RB 

Post#6 » by TheGhostDog » Tue Nov 27, 2007 6:30 am

DrugBust wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



That's 25 backs in the last 50 years. I don't know about using that as an argument.


Well, I'm just saying that if you want a shot at landing a legend at running back the cost of a lotto ticket is not for the faint of heart. Did I mention that Peter King just aggravates me?
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Post#7 » by paulpressey25 » Tue Nov 27, 2007 3:06 pm

That's a good list of HOF'ers. What stands out in that list though is how most of those guys are from a long-time ago in a different era before the West Coast offense and Bill Walsh in 1980.

Once Walsh proved you could win a Super Bowl in 1981 with a mediocre ground game, I think the rules changed.

I wouldn't hesitate to draft McFadden if I had the high pick to do so, but I wouldn't mortgage the future to get him.
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Post#8 » by TheGhostDog » Tue Nov 27, 2007 6:59 pm

paulpressey25 wrote:That's a good list of HOF'ers. What stands out in that list though is how most of those guys are from a long-time ago in a different era before the West Coast offense and Bill Walsh in 1980.

Once Walsh proved you could win a Super Bowl in 1981 with a mediocre ground game, I think the rules changed.


I completely agree that the arrival of Bill Walsh changed the rules for what it takes to win a championship - I have argued the same point here myself in response to pundits that discount the Pack because of our lack of a dominant running game.

I am trying, however, to make a seperate point: running backs that have the potential to become truly superlative at the NFL level don't just sneak up on you - you can expect to have to spend a high draft choice on one to land one. That's not to say that you can't find a very good or serviceable back past the 1st round or that it doesn't make economic sense to build a team with cheaper RBs. I am just pointing out that your odds of finding a special RB, which I am defining here as hall of fame potential, drop to nearly nil past the first round of the draft.

If you agree with ESPN's future HoF projections ( http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/st ... me/nfllist ) the rule still seems valid, first rounders all:
LaDainian Tomlinson 5 2001
Shaun Alexander 19 2000
Reggie Bush 2 2006
Edgerrin James 4 1999
Larry Johnson 27 2003
Steven Jackson 24 2004
Adrian Peterson 7 2007

The only exception to the rule in the last 20 years may be Terrell Davis (6th round '95).
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Post#9 » by TheGhostDog » Tue Nov 27, 2007 7:14 pm

Just adding some other likely Hall of Famers not on the ESPN list:
Emmit Smith 17 '90
Jerome Bettis 10 '93
Marshall Faulk 2 '94

but I should add Curtis Martin (3rd round '95) as another possible exception.
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Post#10 » by paulpressey25 » Wed Nov 28, 2007 5:14 am

I'll admit that it is interesting that virtually all the HOF'ers were 1st rounders.....and high ones at that.

That said, I'm still pretty comfortable with not investing a super high pick in a RB. For every Adrian Peterson and LT you've got a bunch of Rashaan Salaam's, KiJana Carters, Brent Fullwoods, etc. Given the salary cap issues with a top-ten pick, I'd play it safe and not go for the moon there but just come away with a solid player like Hawk. If you bomb, it really affects your cap.
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Post#11 » by El Duderino » Wed Nov 28, 2007 8:48 am

paulpressey25 wrote:I'll admit that it is interesting that virtually all the HOF'ers were 1st rounders.....and high ones at that.

That said, I'm still pretty comfortable with not investing a super high pick in a RB. For every Adrian Peterson and LT you've got a bunch of Rashaan Salaam's, KiJana Carters, Brent Fullwoods, etc. Given the salary cap issues with a top-ten pick, I'd play it safe and not go for the moon there but just come away with a solid player like Hawk. If you bomb, it really affects your cap.



This i bet could be said for most positions. I'd assume that the majority of best players at most positions were/are first round picks and often high ones. Sure there will be exceptions, but more often than not, the better players are taken earlier in drafts, not later.

Just like there is a long list of first round RB busts, there is a long list of WR, defensive lineman, offensive lineman, and DB busts that were high picks.

In the end, it simply comes down to evaluation skills by a GM. He either is right about how good his first round pick is or he's not, the position doesn't matter much IMO. Alot of people like to think OL picks are pretty safe high in the draft, but look at guys like Ferguson with the Jets and Gallery with the Raiders. Those two haven't exactly been what they hoped for. Same for Leonard Davis with Arizona.
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Post#12 » by NeedsMoreCheese » Wed Nov 28, 2007 11:24 am

Of the 23 guys to rush for 10,000 yards in the NFL

Only 4 were taken in the second round
Corey Dillion (43rd overall), Tiki Barber (36th overall), Ricky Watters (40th overall), Thurman Thomas (40th overall)

1 was taken in the third round
Curtis Martin (74th overall)

The remaining 18 were taken in the first round

14 of them in the top 10
(7 of those in the top 4 picks)

The other 4
Emmitt (17th), Eddie George (14th), Franco Harris (13th), Warrick Dunn (12th)



11 of those 23* won Superbowls (as the starter, not just riding the bench in their late years)
5 of those 11 won the SuperBowl MVP.

(4 others started in the Superbowl bringing the total to 15 superbowl Starters
Accounting for the multiple games of many they started a combined 27 Superbowl games (out of 82)
ETA: First rounders add another 20 or so (may have missed by a couple but i looked through all the SB running backs year by year and its almost 6am so cut me a break :P ) so somewhere around 47 of the 82 were first rounders




*Though that should be 22 because there was no Superbowl when Jim Brown played
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Post#13 » by paulpressey25 » Wed Nov 28, 2007 5:59 pm

Those are some fun numbers KIM.......I can't believe that "Ricky Watters" rushed for 10,000 yards.....yikes.

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