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Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA

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Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#1 » by Pogue Mahone » Mon Feb 8, 2010 7:12 pm

Celtics
Trades: Ray Allen, Tony Allen, Glen Davis, Kendrick Perkins, Marquis Daniels, Bill Walker, Eddie House, Brian Scalabrine and JR Giddens
Receives: Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, Travis Outlaw, Samuel Dalembert, Louis Williams, Paul Millsap and Andrei Kirilenko

Blazers
Trades: Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez and Travis Outlaw
Receives: Kendrick Perkins, Bill Walker and JR Giddens

76'ers
Trades: Samuel Dalembert, Louis Williams and Jason Kapono
Receives: Ray Allen, Marquis Daniels and Brian Scalabrine

Jazz
Trades: Paul Millsap and Andrei Kirilenko
Receives: Glen Davis, Eddie House, Tony Allen and Jason Kapono

BOS: Acquire a SG, with length, athleticism and youth, who can spread the floor. Acquire a combo G who can score. Acquire a young wing prospect (who has already put excellent numbers in limited minutes) who profiles as a defensive stopper with the ability to finish on the break, as a catch-and-shoot option and, in time, at creating in the halfcourt. Acquire two tweener forwards with length, size and athleticism-- one is a scorer and the other is a defender. Acquire an extremely rich man's version of Glen Davis. All players are under 28 years old and five of the seven are 25 years or younger. All can play in an uptempo offense. Four of the seven are at least above average defenders. Five of the seven are on deals of two years or less, with the other two on market salary (or slightly discounted, dependent on role) four year deals.

POR: Acquire a post defender to pair with Aldridge for this year and until (if) Oden and Pryzbilla come back healthy. Acquire a very cheap wing prospect. Acquire a wing on an expiring contract.

PHI: Hit the reset button and shed ~$24.3M salary for the 2010-11 season. They could use Allen's deal to make further moves, let him expire or choose to attempt to resign him on teh cheap.

UTA: Shed ~$10M in 2009-10 salary (depending on which site you think provides the best salary information) and ~$13M in 2010-11.

Code: Select all

POS   Player      Backups
PG   Rondo      L. Williams/Fernandez
SG   Pierce      Fernandez/Batum/L. Williams
SF   Kirilenko   Batum/Oulaw*/Millsap
PF   Garnett      Millsap/Outlaw*/S. Williams
C   Dalembert   Wallace/S. Williams

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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#2 » by hard work » Mon Feb 8, 2010 7:22 pm

I don't know what to say...

Oh I just said something.
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#3 » by Kefa461 » Mon Feb 8, 2010 7:49 pm

I know the OP is kidding......how hard it is to pull off a trade period.....but a 4 team trade.









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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#4 » by JSABleedsGreen » Mon Feb 8, 2010 8:00 pm

are my eyes deceiving me or did I see 9 players being traded out of Boston? meaning that only 5 would remain as part of the original team?

sorry not happening....can't build chemistry in 10 days
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#5 » by Pogue Mahone » Mon Feb 8, 2010 8:05 pm

hard work wrote:I don't know what to say...

Oh I just said something.


Well, for starters, my belief is that one reason for the current offensive inefficiencies, at times, is due to a possession crunch, particularly among the starters and exacerbated when certain members of the bench come in the game.

With that in mind, starting one of Batum, Fernandez or Kirilenko with Dalembert frees up possessions in the starting unit. It also allows us to get easier baskets in transition.

One particular issue with the current make up of the roster is backup PG. While Lou Williams does have his deficiencies, he is capable, young and offensively talented enough to carry a second unit, at times.

We continue to the spread the floor because Fernandez (.389), Batum (.380) and Outlaw (.361) have all demonstrated the ability to hit the three point shot so far in their careers.

All of the players we would be bringing in are athletic enough to get out on the break and, thereby, make Rondo more valuable. As stated in my original post, four of the seven are right now good-to-very good defenders (and three of those are game changers defensively.

Batum, Fernandez, Outlaw, Williams, Kirilenko and Millsap have all shown the ability to avoid turnovers while scoring at league average or better rates and, in some cases, using league average or better possession rates.

As stated in the original post, only two (Williams and Millsap) are on deals longer than two years. This offseason or at the trading deadline a year from now, Boston will have a ton of liquid assets to continue to rebuild on the fly. More importantly (and unlike the current circumstances), those expiring contracts may be packaged with desirable players.

As stated in the original post, all seven players are under 28 years old (and five of them are under the age of 25.) The two big contracts (Dalembert and Kirilenko) are expiring after next season and could likely be re-signed at a discount if they are not used as salary ballast to further upgrade the team.
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#6 » by Zin5 » Mon Feb 8, 2010 8:07 pm

I really hate to say this, but all four teams would say no.

Boston kills whatever chemistry we once had and becomes oversaturated at the 3 and the 4 while only having Rudy (the only true SG that'd be left) at the 2.

Perk's better than Haywood, but I still doubt they'd give up the similar package they were asking for plus Outlaw for him.

Kapono and Dalembert each have only one year remaining on their contracts. They both still bring something to the table, I'm pretty sure Philly could get an expiring for both of them without having to give up Williams.

Jazz already have Korver, so Kapono means nothing to them. They downgrade from Millsap to Davis, and give up AK, who only has one year left on his contract anyways.
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#7 » by Pogue Mahone » Mon Feb 8, 2010 8:09 pm

JSABleedsGreen wrote:are my eyes deceiving me or did I see 9 players being traded out of Boston? meaning that only 5 would remain as part of the original team?


No joke. I would do this trade if I was in charge. Essentially we are rolling the expiring contracts forward a year and acquiring chits of starter and rotational quality while doing so.

JSABleedsGreen wrote:sorry not happening....can't build chemistry in 10 days


Chemistry is overrated if it isn't winning games.
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#8 » by Pogue Mahone » Mon Feb 8, 2010 8:26 pm

Zin5 wrote:I really hate to say this, but all four teams would say no.


Fair enough.

Zin5 wrote:Boston kills whatever chemistry we once had and becomes oversaturated at the 3 and the 4 while only having Rudy (the only true SG that'd be left) at the 2.


As stated previously, chemistry is overrated if it can't win games. The team retains it's three stars and surrounds those stars with more athleticism, more outside shooting, better rebounding, better turnover avoidance and youth.

BTW, Batum can play on the wing opposite of Pierce, Kirilenko or Fernandez, imo. He is 6'8 but he has the athleticism to cover the more difficult match up. If positional designations mattered, Atlanta would completely suck with their SF heavy offense and no true C.

Zin5 wrote:Perk's better than Haywood, but I still doubt they'd give up the similar package they were asking for plus Outlaw for him.


Two bench players and an expiring scorer for a low-cost, starting caliber post-defending endomorph to pair with Aldridge (there is no guarantee that Oden or Pryzbilla will return 100% ready to go to start the next season.) Oden, even if healthy, has demonstrated that he is injury prone. The big differences between Perkins and Haywood are that 1) Perkins is better and 2) Perkins has a year remaining at cheap salary and Haywood is expiring. They are getting less than inspiring play from the corpse of Juwan Howard and upgrade the starting unit to make a playoff run this year (they are currently in 8th place in the West.)

Zin5 wrote:Kapono and Dalembert each have only one year remaining on their contracts. They both still bring something to the table, I'm pretty sure Philly could get an expiring for both of them without having to give up Williams.


Trading Dalembert opens up playing time for Speights and trading Williams opens up playing time for Holiday, they shed salary long-term salary and have the option of resigning Ray Allen at a great discount if that is what is amendable to both parties. Or they could package more long-term salary with a sign-and-trade Allen to a contender to completely finish the flush of the roster.

Zin5 wrote:Jazz already have Korver, so Kapono means nothing to them. They downgrade from Millsap to Davis, and give up AK, who only has one year left on his contract anyways.


It is my understanding that Utah is attempting to shed vast amounts of salary. In fact, as I understand it, they are willing to basically give away players to avoid paying long-term salary (a pre-extension Brewer, the rookie scale contract of Eric Maynor, etc.)

Sure, this deal is quite unlikely to happen. It doesn't mean I wouldn't do it if given the opportunity.
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#9 » by threrf23 » Mon Feb 8, 2010 10:11 pm

That would be an outstanding deal. Batum is very solid...can't build chemistry in three days but if you can build a championship caliber roster while making your team younger you take the opportunity.

No way in hell Utah agrees on that. I'm pretty sure Portland laughs as well.
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#10 » by hard work » Tue Feb 9, 2010 12:48 am

Pogue Mahone wrote:
JSABleedsGreen wrote:are my eyes deceiving me or did I see 9 players being traded out of Boston? meaning that only 5 would remain as part of the original team?


No joke. I would do this trade if I was in charge. Essentially we are rolling the expiring contracts forward a year and acquiring chits of starter and rotational quality while doing so.

JSABleedsGreen wrote:sorry not happening....can't build chemistry in 10 days


Chemistry is overrated if it isn't winning games.


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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#11 » by Pogue Mahone » Tue Feb 9, 2010 5:15 am

hard work wrote:Jesus still loves you.


I ignored your first attempt at trolling. Listen, if you can't bring anything to the thread, don't bother commenting.
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#12 » by GuyClinch » Tue Feb 9, 2010 7:57 am

I like it. That's an example of some great outside the box thinking. And I think its a HUGE win for the C's. They get a ton of talent back and would have talent to build on for years to come.

Actually the only real issue for this season is Perkins to Dal. And I honestly feel Doc could get something good out of Dal. Lou Williams is a huge upgrade to Eddie. Millsap is a massive upgrade from BBD - and can really hit the boards. And while I don't really love foreign guys Rudy F. is a guy who to me looked underutilized as does Outlaw. I actually think Outlaw could give us Ray Allen type production right now...so huge win for us. Also Kirilenko would thrive with Rondo out there - tall - likes to move off the ball and can still finish right?

There is no problem for us at all. Its the other teams that might need some sweetening. Does Utah really want to dump salary that badly? The same deal with Philly.. I also think you have to do something about Portland.. I don't really see their angle at all. They have Oden who I imagine they believe will eventually come back..

Its a cool hypothetical trade - I especially love how you target under used guys who are caught in position crunches right now..its all for naught though unless you know someone on the C's. I am with you about the Chemistry too. Chemsistry kind of straightens itself out if you can win.
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#13 » by floyd » Tue Feb 9, 2010 1:40 pm

I think Utah is just trying to get under the lux tax this year. I don't think they're looking to move a guy like Millsap to save a year on AK47's contract (whom I guess is playing pretty well). Does this deal make them players in FA next year? They've won 8 straight and are tied for 3rd out west. Hard to see them blowing that up just to save some $, but who knows I guess.
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#14 » by iserp » Tue Feb 9, 2010 2:44 pm

Not trying to be a troll, but that deal is so lopsided that it isnt even funny.

Portland might need to trade some of their young talent, but they are not trading BOTH rudy and batum. Specially since they are not rushing things, they expect Oden to come back and Perkins is just an overachiever.

76ers want to shed payroll, but the worst contracts they have are Iguodala and Elton Brand. They will ship Dalembert only if they can unload one of those two, so they have cap space for this summer. They're not surrendering Lou Williams like this (1 year of Dalembert's contract is not worth that). Actually, they'd like some talent for their players; but even if they were just getting expirings, Phoenix or Houston are offering better trades.

Utah just signed Paul Milsap. He is an insurance against Boozer leaving and he is very young. AKs contract is bad, but Utah is getting just a bunch of scrubs in this trade. If they are so desperate to shed payroll they would trade Boozer along someone else and get something in return.

Boston may have chemistry issues the first year, but then would be a contender for the next 5, so great for them. And would say yes to the trade in the blink of an eye.

I think you are reading too much on Utah and Philly being desperate to shed payroll, and Portland being desperate to find a replacement for Oden's injuries. GM's are more patient than that, and they all know that they can get much better trades than that.
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#15 » by Pogue Mahone » Tue Feb 9, 2010 3:34 pm

GuyClinch wrote:They get a ton of talent back and would have talent to build on for years to come.


The idea is that we essentially carry forward the expiring contract gravy train and, in the process, surround our three stars with more complimentary talent. It manages to accomplish quite a few different things, in my mind. Some of the ways we benefit, imo, are by having 1) youth to run with Rondo and alleviate some of the up-and-down aspect of our current offense which tends to be too deliberate, forced and easily defensed, at times, 2) increased size, length and athleticism with the intent to remain effective in our help defense scheme, 3) versatility throughout the roster which allows for more liberal use of the bench outside of highly specific roles, and 4) a defensive wing to preserve Pierce's offensive effectiveness by guarding the more difficult of opposition wings.

GuyClinch wrote:Actually the only real issue for this season is Perkins to Dal. And I honestly feel Doc could get something good out of Dal.


Listen, Perkins is one of my favorite players-- probably ever. I just love his work ethic, no-nonsense work under the boards and ability to play to a role. That being said, Batum will be a star, at least in level of impact. He may not be called a star by the Stern marketing machine but he will do a lot for a team attempting to win. In some ways he reminds me of Battier but with more offensive upside and a greater defensive impact. To me, Batum is the main reason for the entire deal. In my mind, Batum was top-5 talent in his draft class. I honestly believe that.

GuyClinch wrote:Lou Williams is a huge upgrade to Eddie. Millsap is a massive upgrade from BBD - and can really hit the boards. And while I don't really love foreign guys Rudy F. is a guy who to me looked underutilized as does Outlaw. I actually think Outlaw could give us Ray Allen type production right now...so huge win for us. Also Kirilenko would thrive with Rondo out there - tall - likes to move off the ball and can still finish right?


All true, imo. The thing with the Portland players is that they are all going to appear to be greatly discounted in the counting stats department because they play at a very deliberate pace (30th in tempo for the last two seasons.) Perhaps the most encouraging thing is that all three were quite adapt at turnover avoidance and playing off of more talented offensive players. Heck, operating as a sixth man in 2008-09 (he has been hurt this season), Outlaw had put up a .453/.377/.723 line, good for 16.6 P36, as a 24-year old. Ray Allen is currently putting up .450/.338/.892 line (15.7 P36) and a lot of his free throw attempts are on technical fouls mostly arising from defensive three seconds.

The thing with Dalembert is that he has actually been quite good as a rebounder (career 11.9 OReb/25.1 DReb/18.4 RebRate) and shotblocker (5.9%.) Perkins hovers around the same region in both areas, perhaps a bit worse, even, so there would be likely not be much of a dropoff in those areas. It does concern me that there may be a bit of a dropoff in regards to post defense but I think that will be mitigated, in part, by Dalembert's better offensive rebounding, FT conversion and ability to finish more athletically off of Rondo's creation (much the same way Chris Paul created many easy looks for Tyson Chandler, I think Rondo could do the same for Sammy D.)

As far as salary is concerned, as stated previously, we are simply moving our expiring contracts a year into the future. Assuming we were to resign him, Dalembert could probably be had for $8M per annum, discounted due to low scoring numbers. Perkins would likely command something similar, if not more, without providing the liquidity of additional trade chits/rotational contributors.

GuyClinch wrote:There is no problem for us at all. Its the other teams that might need some sweetening. Does Utah really want to dump salary that badly? The same deal with Philly.. I also think you have to do something about Portland.. I don't really see their angle at all. They have Oden who I imagine they believe will eventually come back..


I think Portland needs someone to play center to keep Aldridge at power forward for most of his minutes. Next year won't be much different, at least to start the year, because Oden and Pryzbilla both went down this past December with pretty severe knee injuries. Perkins is inexpensive enough that an Oden, Pryzbilla and Perkins triumvirate is a total cost of a max player. Additionally, both Pryzbilla and Perkins expire at the same time. Perkins is five years younger than Pryzbilla and provides more than adequate size and defense to backup Oden going into the future or, if history provides any evidence, as a good hedge against the bet of another Oden injury.

GuyClinch wrote:I am with you about the Chemistry too. Chemsistry kind of straightens itself out if you can win.


Exactly.

Rome was a unique experience, sure, and the sense of urgency of those times certainly played into it, but the Celtics were quite cohesive in a pretty short time after the acquisition of Garnett, Allen, Posey and House.
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#16 » by Pogue Mahone » Tue Feb 9, 2010 3:52 pm

floyd wrote:I think Utah is just trying to get under the lux tax this year. I don't think they're looking to move a guy like Millsap to save a year on AK47's contract (whom I guess is playing pretty well). Does this deal make them players in FA next year? They've won 8 straight and are tied for 3rd out west. Hard to see them blowing that up just to save some $, but who knows I guess.


Your contentions are spot on, imo. As to your questions, New York is unlikely to make much of a move going forward. Assume ~$2.5-3M in salary for the high draft pick getting added on to Utah's 2010-11 salary projections. If they keep Boozer, he will get a raise. If they don't keep Boozer, they will be losing a lot of offensive talent without replacing it on the roster (unless they trade Boozer, of course.) This allows them to retain the offensive talent and shed salary. Alternatively, you could do something like this:

Utah: What if it is Okur and Millsap and Kapono gets re-routed to Boston instead? The deal could be arranged so that Utah could save ~$10M this season (~$20M after the tax) and they retain Kirilenko.
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Re: Trade Idea: BOS-POR-PHI-UTA 

Post#17 » by Pogue Mahone » Tue Feb 9, 2010 6:04 pm

iserp wrote:Not trying to be a troll, but that deal is so lopsided that it isnt even funny.


No, you have a well thought-out and reasoned reply. It is nowhere close to trolling. And I agree it is lopsided in the Celtics' favor. I am a Celtics fan and I was attempting to maximize everything to the benefit of the Celtics.

iserp wrote:Portland might need to trade some of their young talent, but they are not trading BOTH rudy and batum. Specially since they are not rushing things, they expect Oden to come back and Perkins is just an overachiever.


See my reply to GuyClinch above but Perkins is young enough, cheap enough, signed long enough and good enough to upgrade their current frontcourt, act as insurance against BOTH Oden and Pryzbilla each coming back from knee surgery and, possibly, as future insurance or as a trade chit, depending on Oden's health (or lack thereof) going forward. Oden has already had microfracture surgery on his right knee, a mid-lateral foot sprain, bone chips removed from his left knee and a fracture of his left patella.

If that wasn't bad enough, his primary backup also went down with a serious knee injury. Portland is still playing quite well despite playing Juwan Howard's corpse. If they can upgrade Howard to make a playoff run this season, it gives the rest of the roster playoff experience and it doesn't put all of their eggs in the very fragile Greg Oden basket going forward.

Your general point holds true, though, as it is fairly high price to pay for a backup center (assuming Oden is healthy moving forward.) I want Batum and Outlaw, at minimum, for Perkins and Walker. I would like to get the rights to Koponen, Freeland or even Claver but I highly doubt that is possible.

iserp wrote:76ers want to shed payroll, but the worst contracts they have are Iguodala and Elton Brand. They will ship Dalembert only if they can unload one of those two, so they have cap space for this summer. They're not surrendering Lou Williams like this (1 year of Dalembert's contract is not worth that). Actually, they'd like some talent for their players; but even if they were just getting expirings, Phoenix or Houston are offering better trades.


Maybe you are right. I was under the assumption that despite being young and a contributor, the 76'ers were unhappy with Lou Williams and were really looking to open up playing time for J'rue Holiday. The deal could still go through with Willie Green instead of Williams. The major changes from the deal as outlined in the first post would be the following:

Boston:
In: Batum, Outlaw, Dalembert, Green, Kapono, Millsap and Okur

Portland:
In: Perkins and Walker

Philadelphia:
In: R. Allen, T. Allen and JR Giddens

Utah:
In: Davis, House and Scalabrine

iserp wrote:Utah just signed Paul Milsap. He is an insurance against Boozer leaving and he is very young. AKs contract is bad, but Utah is getting just a bunch of scrubs in this trade. If they are so desperate to shed payroll they would trade Boozer along someone else and get something in return.


Do they keep Boozer? Are they planning on re-signing Boozer? Will they need to clear salary to re-sign Boozer? If they are trading Boozer, I would be more than happy to amend the trade to take Boozer and Okur off of their hands. No offense but I find it highly suspect that they would simply allow Boozer to expire without getting any value in return (and without any benefit of additional salary relief by trading him before the deadline because a sign-and-trade, unless packaged with Okur, will put them right back into the tax-paying bracket they currently find themselves sitting in.) So, do they get salary relief this year and into the future or do they lose an asset and get nothing in return? Boston can certainly involve draft picks if that would make Utah whole.

What are the much better trades that these other GMs could get? I am not saying the deal I laid out is perfect, in fact, as stated, it was purposely in favor of Boston. Boston, after all, is eating the most future salary.

Tracy McGrady by himself gives only salary cap relief. Ray and other expiring contracts do the same. Is it because another team will eat Iguodala? Boston will eat his salary and take on Dalembert. Boston can find a combo guard elsewhere. It doesn't hold up the general framework of the deal from happening. If reports are to be true, Boston could likely re-route Iguodala (or keep him.)

Can Portland really count on Oden being healthy moving forward? If you are a young playoff team, do you really want to rest team-wide success on Oden remaining healthy (something he has been unable to do for the last four years running)? By acquiring Perkins, Portland allows Oden a year and a half to get (and remain) healthy. I feel that the amended trade, sans Fernandez, is more than fair.

I think I covered Utah enough.

Where is my thinking and conclusions off in this? What needs to be amended to make all teams whole? I don't think I have overrated anyone in this deal but I am open to listening to what other people feel regarding the valuation of the players involved.

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