NBA/ABA Decades League Playoffs: Round 2 DUE SATURDAY

[All In The Name]

Bracket 1:

Group A:

CellarDoor vs. SabasRevenge!

Group B:

TMACFORMVP vs. BlackIce

Bracket 2:

Group C:

SamBone vs. All In The Name

Group D:

Miller4ever vs. Myth_Breaker

[All In The Name]

SamBone's team features the arguable GOAT and some great pieces around him. It's never easy to take down MJ, but we feel we can do just that.

PG: Walt Frazier (40) / Dana Barros (8)
SG: Sidney Mtoncrief (34) / Lou Hudson (14)
SF: Lou Hudson (11) / Dennis Rodman (24) / Peja Stojakovic (13)
PF: Dennis Rodman (12) / Rasheed Wallace (30) / Theo Ratliff (6)
C : Shaquille O'Neal (40) / Brad Daugherty (4) / Theo Ratliff (4)

vs.

PG – NASH ( 38 ), VAN LIER ( 10 )
SG - JORDAN ( 39 ), TONEY ( 9)
SF - WORTHY ( 30 ), MARION ( 18 )
PF - PETTIT ( 27 ), OAKLEY ( 12 ), MARION ( 9 )
C - PARISH ( 33 ), PETTIT ( 10 ), OAKLEY ( 5 ), CAMBY

How will my opponent stop Shaq from dominating the series? This is a question that every team playing against Shaq will have a tough time answering, and SamBone's is no exception. Peak Shaq is an absolutely dominant low post player, leading the NBA in PPG and FG%. Very few players throughout NBA history can have any hope of limiting him in the slightest 1-on-1, and Robert Parish is certainly not one of them. Robert Parish is a good defender, but good isn't getting it done against 2000 Shaq. If my opponent elects to guard Shaq straight up, he will make them pay. None of his backup centers would do much better, if at all, in their limited minutes. On the other hand, if they frequently bring help or even flat-out double-team Shaq, he will do just as much damage. Shaq is also a terrific passer who led all centers in APG (3.8) in 2000 by a wide margin. My team may not be built around the 3-point shot, but I've got a few long-ball threats, in addition to a number of great mid-range shooters and guys who can cut to the basket if their defender helps down low on Shaq. It's pick your poison with peak Shaq: play him 1-on-1 and he'll score a ton of points on amazing efficiency; bring help and he'll still score a ton of points (though slightly fewer) on amazing efficiency while doing a great job of finding open guys for easy buckets. Many believe that 2000 Shaq is the most dominant player ever (and if he's not, he's damn close), and I'm not sure that there is any defensive unit that can significantly slow him down. But even if such a team exists, it's not SamBone's, which features only one plus-defender in an ATL in the starting lineup (Worthy and Parish are nothing special defensively in an ATL, Pettit wasn't much better than average defensively in his own time, and Nash is an awful ATL defender). So when Shaq explodes in this series as he did in the 2000 playoffs (30.7/15.4/3.1 with 2.4 BPG on 56.6% shooting), SamBone will have to try to find a way to dominate in other areas in order to bridge the gap. But we believe that the matchups are such that he will not be able to do so.

Let's start with the obvious: Michael Jordan. Like Shaq, he's a dominating force. The difference is that we've got elite defenders to throw at him. We won't let him get used to our defense, having Moncrief (who Jordan said the following about: “When you play against Moncrief, you're in for a night of all-around basketball. He'll hound you everywhere you go, both ends of the court. You just expect it.”) as his main defender, but also putting Frazier and Rodman on him sometimes just for a change of pace, and even doubling and trapping him at times if the situation calls for it. While facing MJ is always a challenge, we feel that we're as well-equipped for it as possible, with 3 of the greatest defenders in history available to guard him and an absolute beast down low as the last line of defense (remember, Shaq was 2nd in DPOY voting in 2000 behind only Alonzo Mourning and was the anchor for the #1 defense in the league that season in terms of points allowed per 100 possessions). Also bear in mind that, as great as MJ was in 1996, he wasn't quite at his peak. He's not as athletic as he was a few years prior, and he will always have someone stuck to him like white on rice. He also won't be able to manhandle his defender in the post like he could do to lesser defenders. We are confident that, with the aforementioned star defenders, we will be able to do at least as well on MJ as Gary Payton was able to do in the Finals in MJ's selected '96 season. Jordan averaged 27.3 PPG, 3.8 APG, and 3.0 TOPG on 41.5% shooting during that series, a huge drop-off from his typical level of play. In short, while both of us took amazing players with our first picks, Shaq will have a greater impact on the series. I'd even argue that, in general, 2000 Shaq is better than 1996 Jordan and more conducive to winning a title, and Shaq surely will have the better series due to the guys guarding each superstar.

Similarly, Steve Nash, who is arguably my opponent's second most important offensive player (and, at very worst, third) will be well-defended. Like with MJ, Moncrief and Rodman can also defend Nash, but it'll usually be Walt Frazier who is assigned to him. With a long wingspan and amazingly quick hands, Frazier will be able to cause quite a few turnovers. Nash routinely ranks among the league leaders in turnovers and, in his selected 2006 season, had the 3rd highest TOV% (19.0) of all guards who averaged over 30 MPG. Now, these turnovers may often come due to Nash being an aggressive player who attempts passes others might not, but, the fact of the matter is, he's a turnover-prone player. As I mentioned, Frazier will use this to his advantage, pickpocketing Nash and deflecting his passes a few times a game, leading to easy fastbreak opportunities at the other end. Now, with Jordan, Nash might be used in more of a spot-up shooter role than usual, but he will still have a large portion of the ball-handling duties and frequently be needed to set up the offense. If Frazier can significantly disrupt Nash, as we are confident he can, SamBone's offense will take a big hit.

On the other end of the floor, though, who will Nash defend? Nash's defense is a big concern for the Suns against many guys who wouldn't even sniff an ATL roster. Now he's got to somehow defend an all-time great? That's bad news for my opponent. If he puts Nash on Hudson, we'll make him a bigger part of our offense. He can easily shoot right over Nash (Hudson earned his nickname, “Sweet Lou”, for his great jumpshot, and he is one of the few pre-three-point line players who it is widely believed would be a good/great three-point shooter today) and is an efficient scorer (nearly 22 PPG on over 49% shooting in his selected season). If he decides to use Nash on Rodman, Rodman would have no problem backing him down and finishing at the basket. It's likely that my opponent will have Nash guard Frazier or Moncrief. Either way, this is a huge advantage in my favor. Both of my starting guards are much stronger than Nash and can post him up, and would also exploit his mediocre-at-best lateral defense to drive by him and dish, finish, or draw a foul. So while feeding it to Shaq in the post will be my main source of offense, exploiting Nash's defense will also be a major part of our gameplan.

Rodman will sometimes guard Bob Pettit, but it'll usually be Rasheed Wallace who is on him. Rasheed is a great low post defender, and we are not worried about Pettit doing much in that area against him. Now, Pettit does have a tough-to-defend face-up game and draws a lot of fouls, but, remember, peak Rasheed is very quick for a guy his size and has a great basketball IQ. We don't think he'll fall for as many of Pettit's pump-fakes as some other defenders might, making it tougher for Pettit to drive past him or draw fouls. Pettit will do some damage, but we don't think it'll be enough to swing the series in SamBone's favor.

We really like our chances defensively with Shaq guarding Parish. We definitely have no concerns about Parish's low-post offense, through a combination of Shaq being one of the greatest 1-on-1 post defenders ever and that not being Parish's M.O. Now, it's true that Parish had a great mid-range shot for a big, but keep in mind that, in 1979, Parish was not at his peak. The Parish we all remember is the one who shot at least 54.2% for the Celtics for 11 straight seasons, not the one who shot under 50%
for the last-in-their-division Warriors in 1979. He'll get a few looks when Shaq has to occasionally protect the rim, but won't make much of an impact offensively (or defensively, for that matter).

James Worthy may be well-known for stepping it up in the playoffs, but he's going to find it extremely difficult to score in half-court sets with Dennis Rodman draped all over him and Shaq near the basket, where Worthy did most of his scoring. Really, the only way Worthy is likely to make his presence felt in this series is if his team gets many fastbreak chances, which leads me to one of my final points.

The preferred tempos of the two teams in this series couldn't be any more different. While most all-time greats can succeed at any pace, make no mistake, my team wants to slow it down and play in more half-court sets; SamBone's team wants to speed things up and run the break. Whichever team dictates the tempo will have a massive advantage in this series. So how do we plan to do this? Well, for starters, as mentioned, my opponent really doesn't have a way to control Shaq. The only thing he can do is foul him, which helps me on a number of levels (get into the bonus quicker, put my opponents in foul trouble), the most important of which for this series is that it stops the clock and allows me to set-up my defense, preventing a fast-break. And when my opponent does not foul Shaq, we are a very efficient scoring team. Frazier shot 51.8%, third highest of any guard in the league (his .575 TS% was good for sixth in the league). Moncrief was fourth of all guards in FG% at 52.4%, and his .602 TS% placed him 11th overall. Hudson shot 49.2%, placing him in the top 10 of all non-centers in FG%. Rodman shot 53.9%. Shaq led the league at 57.4% and also was in the top 10 in TS%. Those are my starters. And my bench is filled with efficient scorers as well, with no one shooting lower than 46.9%, Barros (.632) ranking fifth in TS%, and Peja (.624) and Daugherty (.629) both finishing second in TS% in the entire NBA. Putting the ball in the basket at an efficient rate is another way to make it more difficult for my opponent to push the tempo. Quite frankly, we don't think we'll be missing enough shots for our opponent to dictate the pace.

Finally, let's take a look at rebounding.

ORB%:

All In The Name
PG: 2.7
SG: 7.6
SF: 11.3
PF: 9.1
C: 11.1
average: 8.4

SamBone
PG: 2.6
SG: 5.1
SF: 6.9
PF: 10.7
C: 11.6
average: 7.4

DRB%:

All In The Name
PG: 11.1
SG: 9.7
SF: 23.2
PF: 23.7
C: 26.0
average: 18.7

SamBone
PG: 10.7
SG: 13.1
SF: 15.1
PF: 23.0
C: 27.2
average: 17.8

TRB%

All In The Name
PG: 6.9
SG: 8.7
SF: 17.3
PF: 16.4
C: 18.6
average: 13.6

SamBone
PG: 6.7
SG: 9.1
SF: 11.0
PF: 16.9
C: 19.4
average: 12.6

So, for the most part, it's fairly even overall, except for SF, where we enjoy a sizable advantage.

With no one to guard Shaq, elite defenders to guard my opponent's best weapons, the ability to play at the pace we want, and the rebounding edge, we are confident that we can win a hard-fought series.

Thanks to SamBone, and thanks to the judges.

[CellarDoor]

The Cellar Door Cold Revenges:

Payton(40)/
Carter(40)/Bowen(16)
Bird(40)/
Hawkins(25)/Williams(31)
Lanier(38)/Sabonis(10)

v.
Tall Furry Kittens:
Cooper/Porter
Hondo/Horny
James/Schrempf
Unseld/Hayes
Mourning/Ruland

minutes distribution to come, Sabas

First, an apology to judges: knowing both myself and Sabas, this is likely to be rather lengthy before it's all said and done. It's in our nature, and i will do my best to curb it. Also, I want to commend Sabas on building a very good and interesting team. I'm pretty unconventional in my gameplan, but I've never tried such an unconventional line-up. It should be interesting.

First, there's a couple things I want to address from Sabas' roster page:

there is copious evidence that he (Hondo) was a deft outside shooter as well (Source1Source2)

Now, I'll buy that he could shoot an outside shot, but you certainly aren't going to pass him off as a deadeye or anything. The first link calls him the best shooter on the celtics: the article is in reference to the year they beat NY which was not exactly a strong celtic's shooting year. Kirk Hinrich's Chicago's best shooter this year...but that doesn't mean he's shooting well this year. (who was a solid shooter, granted). The second article calls him a three point threat in college. There are plenty of examples of the three point shot not transferring well into todays' game. I'm certainly open to hearing more arguments to the contrary, especially since I don't feel this is a dealbreaker, but I wanted to throw that out there.

Complimenting our wings, we selected bigs who were excellent rebounders and outlet passers, comfortable shooting from mid-range, and really, really strong defenders. We expect our bigs to ignite opportunities for easy buckets by our elite wings with their rebounding and passing. Defensively, our big men are all so strong that they will be able to prevent our opponents from consistently establishing deep post position.

You have great bigs, no doubt. Hayes and Mourning are among my favorites. And Unseld was a great passer; later in his career. His rookie season (which you selected) he was not the passer he was known for later. I believe Penbeast said as much in last rounds' judging. I'm also genuinely confused as to how you're selling Mourning as a great passer. The season you selected him in featured Tim Hardaway, Leonard, Mashburn, and PJ brown in the starting 5. All good shooters who could hit an open shot, yet Mourning only managed 1.6 assists. He was a lot of things...an above average passer was not one of them. Hayes was a little better, but still not great. Additionally, your last point about preventing position is going to be mostly moot. Williams isn't going to be looking for his own offense, but rather cutting to the basket and trying to get putbacks. Hawkins will be operating in a face-up game most of the time, which is going to seriously hamper either Zo or Unseld who simply don't have the quickness to stay in front of him. Meanwhile Lanier, with a few exceptions each quarter, will be again using his jumper to pull Zo/Ruland away from the basket.

Now, onto the match-up.

Defensive assignments:
VC will be cross matched on Cooper
Payton will be cross matched on Hondo
Bird will be on Lebron
Hawkins on Unseld
Lanier on Zo
I'm running an 8 man rotation. When Williams is in the game, he'll be guarding Zo or the PF while Lanier will handle Unseld. When Sabonis is in the game he'll either be on Unseld or Ruland. When Bowen comes in he'll be on Lebron.
The goal of our defense is going to be to play a similar defensive style to what the Celtics used. We'll grant Zo and Unseld jumpshots and sag into the lane to harass LBJ should be get past Bird (same with Hondo). Cooper and Hondo will see a little bit of daylight when Lebron's handling, but not much. The same thing goes for Lebron when Hondo's handling the ball. Depending on how the game goes, we'll move everyone from positions 1-4 and cross-match as necessary (Bird on Unseld, Hawkins on Hondo/LBJ, Payton on Cooper playing help D or on Lebron, etc) The nice thing about our team is there's nowhere for Lebron to hide on defense. Hondo may be tireless, but Lebron's not. He routinely takes the easier cover leaving Delonte West on the harder wing (The DEN/CLE game Lebron guarded Afflalo whenever possible). Also keep in mind this is last year's Lebron, not this year's ridiculous version. We'll attempt to keep him moving at all times and try to wear him down by throwing him different looks.

Offensively we feel we match up well with the Firs who frankly put together an insane defensive squad. Lets go over his advantages: terrific help D, defensive rebounding, and versatility on the perimeter: this is suited for inefficient teams, teams attacking the basket, teams without versatile bigs. The nice thing is, my bigs won't be operating near the basket except Williams, who isn't trying to get post position and is a good finisher. My team's only threat to attack is VC, who wasn't exactly bothered by help defense playing for the Raptors who were so bad the entire D could collapse on him without issue. His defense is further compromised by the fact that my other two "smalls" will be playing in the post frequently in Bird and Payton. Lebron is his only perimeter player who can match Larry's size, and he's a much, much less than stellar post defender. Additionally, Vince has an extreme Physical advantage on Hondo/Cooper, and that gap only widens if you bring in Porter/Hornacek, both of whom, while alright defenders, will have major issues with my starting guards. Lanier will see enough touches in the paint to try to establish himself, and if he's "on" in the post, we'll feed him. If not, we've got not problem using him to pull Zo away from the basket. Meanwhile Hawkins will attack the basket and Unseld's huge frame specifically in an attempt to either get him in foul trouble or take advantage of his speed.

Rebounding:
This is one area I'll absolutely concede an advantage for the Fir-balls; however, I want to make sure people understand it's not as large an advantage as many may believe and it won't be enough to tip this series.

RebRt:
Payton-7.0
VC-7.9%
Bird-14.9%
Hawkins-12.7%
Lanier-18.1%

v.
Cooper-6.3%
Havlicek-8.3%
James-11.9%
Unseld-~22%(No stats for it, so I extrapolated from his highest rebound rate and added for the additional rebounds per 36.
Mourning-22%

It's also worth noting my bench features Buck Williams and Sabonis, both of whom hold advantages over their counterparts. The key here is that Unseld and Mourning will be out of their element defending Lanier and Hawkins further from the basket, leaving rebounds to the smalls where the advantage is decidedly in my favor.

Passing:
I suspect my opponent will concede this advantage for a few reasons:
I actually play a point guard in my starting five.
VC is an underrated passer when he's got teammates to pass to (see NJN)
Bird is the only SF in history that can match Lebron's passing (and exceed depending on what you need)
My bigs (especially Hawkins, Lanier and Sabonis) completely outclass his in passing and finding cutters. Hondo and James are excellent passers, and Cooper is solid in that regard, but there's not a single position on the floor for me that can't make a pass.

Shooting:
This one is interesting, and it's dependent on a few things: what you believe about Hondo. How many minutes Schrempf gets, and how many minutes his back-up guards get. His three best shooters are on the bench (Porter, Horny, Schrempf) while my two best (VC, Bird) are in the starting 5. Bowen will also see extended minutes this series to combat his wing offense. The problem for Sabas is that in order to get those best shooters in the game, he's giving up an advantage somewhere (Hornacek on Payton/Carter, Schrempf trying to keep Williams off the glass or defend Bird, Porter trying to defend Payton)

(Note: just noticed how long this is getting, I'll try and address anything I need to in rebuttals)

[SamBone]

The Boned Samuels vs All in the Name


I would like to first thank my new friend AITN for putting this game together. I never talked with him prior to this game, but truly believe I have found a great basketball mind to chat with by playing in this game, which to me is the best part of these games talking basketball. Actually this game has opened the door to a few new basketball friendships which I am truly grateful for. I wish him lots of luck, but to quote the great TMACFORMVP “ may the best team win, which I fully intend to do so.”
All in the Name


ROTATION (based on AITN's lineup)
PG – NASH ( 38 ), VAN LIER ( 10 )
SG - JORDAN ( 39 ), TONEY ( 9)
SF - WORTHY ( 30 ), MARION ( 18 )
PF - PETTIT ( 27 ), OAKLEY ( 12 ), MARION ( 9 )
C - PARISH ( 33 ), PETTIT ( 10 ), OAKLEY ( 5 ), CAMBY

vs.

PG: Walt Frazier (40) / Dana Barros (8)
SG: Sidney Mtoncrief (34) / Lou Hudson (14)
SF: Lou Hudson (11) / Dennis Rodman (24) / Peja Stojakovic (13)
PF: Dennis Rodman (12) / Rasheed Wallace (30) / Theo Ratliff (6)
C : Shaquille O'Neal (40) / Brad Daugherty (4) / Theo Ratliff (4)

here are my "peak" years and players stats and info
Roster

Offensively
- Run Run Run and then try to Run some more. I want to run AITN out of the gym.
Just close your eyes, and invision Nash running the floor with MJ on one side, Worthy (or Marion) on the other wing and Parish or Pettit trailing.

- When I get forced into half court sets, I will be running a lot of Pick and Pops. Having both MJ and Nash run P& P’s using Pettit and Parish. This will be attacking a main weakness of my opponent. Shaq was a beast post defender, but always got in trouble when he was pulled away from the basket. This often led to him getting in foul trouble, which would limit his minutes. Both Parish and Pettit were great shooting BIGS and this should give Shaq lots of problems. That added to the shooting of MJ and Nash should give us some half court advantages.

- We will also be leaning on our SF’s (Worthy and Marion) a lot in this matchup because this is another HUGE advantage for us in the half court set. Worthy should destroy his defender (should be mostly matched up against Hudson and Peja neither of which can guard him, and since this is basically like a playoff series. That is the time when “James The Great” shinned the most (remember the year I selected, 88 Finals MVP while playing with the great Magic, Kareem, M.Cooper, and B.Scott). This will force my opponent to either double team (remember I have great shooters for James to pass to) or deal with easy dribble penetration which again would lead to more Shaq fouls (and less playing time). Marion will be matched up against Rodman (his starting PF who will play 24 min at SF). This is plain and simple and will completely force the Worm away from his strengths. Matix will be set in his comfort zone in the corner behind the 3 point arc. This was Matrix’s bread and butter shot and also will pull Rodman away from the basket, not allowing him to do damage on the boards. And if the Worm does not get out and defend Marion’s 3 pointers will do some damage, If Worm tries running out on him, Matrix has a fast enough first step that even a great defender like Rodman could not stop dribble penetration while running out to defend a shooter (setting up a paten Matrix floater or another SHAQ foul).

- I think my opponent will struggle in the PF matchup. Sheed off the bench will be logging the most minutes. And he will be forced to defend Pettit. Pettit who was 6’9 barefoot (which would be listed in todays measurements at 6’11”) was rough, tough and as physical as they come. (Very similar to a prime KG). This is also a matchup I like. Sheed was a solid defender, but Pettit should do very well here and I have a HUGE rebounding advantage here which will only lead to more running and fast breaks, were I am at my best.


- Nash will be Nash, running up and down the court making things happen and setting up his teammates. He will be guarded by a very similar player (and very good defender) in Walt Frazier. Frazier was a great defender, but Nash should be fine here offensively, which he always was. He is deadly from down town if Clyde slips off him or tries to help double someone. Clyde was know for being a great thieve, but he will be defending one of the most skilled ball handlers in the history of the NBA so Clyde’s stealing should be held at bay


- I really do not believe I have to explain anything in the SG matchup at all. Squid was a great all time defender, but what will he do against MJ? I surely do not think MJ will have one of his classic 60 point games, but he will not be stopped. I do not think he will do anything less then he normally did, no matter who is guarding him. And should easily finish with the stat line he averaged this season


Defensively

- Shaq is and was a BEAST. There is no other way to put it. When he gets set up in the deep post there is little anyone can do PERIOD and my matchup will be no different if that happens. My only goal is to try and limit “THE BIG CACTUS” the best I can and I have a few ideas that I think help me here. I already stated how I am going to try and work “SHAQ FU” on the other end of the court. I also already showed how by bringing “THE BIG ARISTOTAL” out from under the net on D, it would lead to extra fouls on him. Plus Worthy abusing his defender and getting to the rim at ease, will also lead to some extra Shaq fouls (the more the fouls pile up, the less minutes he can play). My main concern for my opponent is how effective will the foul troubled “SUPERMAN” be playing 40 minutes with the style of play I will be playing? Will the “DIESEL” have enough gas to be standing or moving while logging this many minutes? I know the year you selected is the only season of his stellar 20 year career that he did average 40 mpg, but could he do it against my UPTEMPO team? So “SHAQ’S BIG CHALLENGE” will be if he can stay on the court and breathing.
I will toss in Oakley for 5 minutes in this matchup simply to BANG with “DADDY” and beat him up even more then the fouls trouble and exhaustion would. Plus, this would be using his kryptonite, “THE HACK-A-SHAQ”, to take advantage of his stellar .524 FT %. Pettit’s minutes will be used against Shaq’s backups because neither of them are strong or tough enough to keep him off the boards.

- I am pretty sure my opponent will try to have Frazier take advantage of Nash. And to be perfectly honest with you, I hope he does. If Clyde tries to be a one man show I am COOL with that. If he is trying to score, that means he isn’t getting Shaq the ball in the paint, or getting his other team mates the ball! So please Clyde try to outscore me by yourself instead of doing what made you great.

- Sheed could always stretch the floor. I think Pettit should be able to do a fine job defending him. The other players logging minutes at the PF spot (Rodman the 12 min starter, and Theo as a 6 min reserve) will not give me any problems at all, and actually will allow me to give Matrix minutes at the 4 to help run even more (more on that later)

- the SF spot I really do not see as being a problem for me in this matchup. The starter Hudson is only logging 11 minutes so I don’t think I need to explain much about a guy who will only be used the opening 5.5 minutes each half. (most likely when they are trying to set the tone with a breathing Shaq. Worm will be logging the most minutes and never was anything to worry about offensively. And both Worthy and Marion should be fine guarding the one dimensional Peja. (both of my defenders are Bigger, Quicker, Longer and Stronger so that should not be an issue. And since we really do not think we will be double much at all, he should never be left open to hurt us from down town. None of my opponents players at this position have good ball handling skills and both my players (especially Marion) were very good at getting steals, which is just another SF advantage that my squad has.

- Squid was not only a great defender, but he could also score. He will be defended by the GOAT 2 way guard in Michael Jordan. So even if Squid has success, it will not be all that often. Same goes for Hudson when he is at the SG spot. I see both of these guys performing below the averages they put up during the “peak” year they selected.

BENCH PLAY

- This matchup is mostly dominated by the starters, but I think then those few minutes a game (most likely at the end of the 1st and 3rd quarter and to start the 2nd and 4th) should lead to a HUGE mismatch “special” lineup that will blow my opponent away.

AITN will for those few minutes be running an lineup of
D.Barros /L.Hudson / Peja / Ratliff /Daugherty
Which I will respond with a matchup of
Nash /A.Toney /Worthy /Marion /Pettit.

There is no way my opponent will be able to keep up with that lineup. This special unit will be running all over my opposition who will not be able to keep my unit off the glass and could not matchup at all with which ever player Peja (most likely Worthy) or softy Daugherty (Pettit) will be guarding and I really don’t think the week side shot blocker Ratliff could guard prime Matrix. And if Hudson tries to double (he really is the only decent man to man defender in this lineup) that would leave open my boy “THE BOSTON STRANGLER” who was deadly the few healthy years he had.

SUMMARY

Basically I think I will be able to outscore my opponent here. I am not sure Shaq and Frazier can outscore my TEAM all by them selves. I believe the contrast in playing style will really put a lot of pressure on Shaq and the max work load would wear him out. I think I can have a ton of easy baskets and can isolate a few players in the half court set that my opponent can not account for. My team shoots much better from the field and from the line, and also will out rebound and out defend my opponent at a lot of positions. Basically the team that can score the most will win this matchup and I am pretty sure that team is THE BONED SAMUELS.

[Myth_Breaker]

Reserved until Tuesday/Wednesday.

[BlackIce]

Black Magic


Minutes

PG - Dennis Johnson (35)/ Manu Ginobli (13)
SG - Jerry West (40)/ Manu Ginobli (8)
SF - Dale Ellis (25)/ Andrei Kirilenko (23)
PF - Kevin Garnett (40)/ Horace Grant (8)
Cc - Dikembe Mutombo (35)/ Walt Bellamy (13)


vs.

PG - Chris Paul (33) - Micheal Ray Richardson (15)
SG - Micheal Ray Richardson (10) - Ray Allen (26) - Ron Artest (12)
SF - Rick Barry (34) - Ron Artest (14)
PF - Jerry Lucas (34) - Larry Nance (14)
Cc - Hakeem Olajuwon (40) - Jermaine O'neal (8)

Introduction

T-Mac is always a tough guy to face in these, not only because he builds great teams, but moreso because he has great writeup's. He could have the Net's of today and you could have the Laker's..it would be close. I've learned the hard way not to assume anything, and it's always fun going up against a great opponent. I feel my team is equipped to win this match-up so let's see how this plays out.

Offense

We will run the offense through KG in this matchup, at 7’0 Kg is going to have his way with the 6’8 Lucas who was an average defender IF that. Sure near the end of his career he bragged that he knew every playbook in the league, but Drew Gooden has made that statement as well, doesn’t mean he is a good defender. I doubt my opponent choses to double KG so we will exploit this matchup in terms of scoring (T-Mac may say that KG isn’t an explosive scorer, but he has never had this much help, and usually teams GAMEPLAN to stop him, here he is being played one on one by Jerry Lucas) and finding open teammates for the easy basket (GOAT passing PF, and a case for GOAT passing big man). A point-forward so to speak.

West will also have a big series. Consider this; MMR is a good defender granted, but he is only playing 10 minutes at SG, leaving the bulk of the minutes with Ray Allen (28). Paul or Barry can’t guard West, and as T-Mac notes in his writeup Artest’s minutes will be used to guard Ellis (27.5 ppg on godly percentages) so that leaves Allen on West for a big chunk of the game. This will be huge for me, as Allen is a poor defender and won’t be able to stay in front of West.
We will run a lot of pick and pop/roll with West/KG it will be our go to move as both are elite shooters, and will Ellis spotting up or running through screens and DJ cutting to the basket it best makes use of our players strengths on this end.

DJ had a low FG%, but Barry’s wasn’t anything special either and West/Ellis/AK/Ginobli/KG/Mutombo have ridicules FG%’s, all are VERY efficient players. Consider that in DJ’s era, players generally had a lower FG% as well, remember in his chosen season DJ is a Final’s MVP, nothing to sneeze at he led the Sonic’s to their 1st and only title. We will exploit the much smaller Paul on the defensive end (gives about 4-5 inches in this matchup and quite a bit of weight). Paul has shown to struggle against bigger PG’s, see Deron Williams vs Chris Paul, or what Billups did to Paul in that NO/DEN series. DJ’s not quite the bid range shooter his is in his BOS days, he will be able to post Paul at will and score or find opportunities for team mates. He is primarily a defensive player, DJ is, but in this series his 16ppg (reg season) will rise quite a bit, Paul thrives on playing the passing lanes and gambling, not man to man defense. Also I’d like to note that DJ is a player that thrives in the playoffs, in my chosen year he averaged 21/6/4, with a 77 FT% and his FG rose to 45%, close to Barry’s 46%. DJ will be a factor in this series.

Rick Barry was a decorated player, a very good scorer for sure, but he wasn’t known for his defense (no all-defensive selections, his rep, etc.), he will have a tough time guarding Ellis who is chosen in a historical season. Barry was a 30ppg guy, on 46% and had Ellis beat in the passing department, but Ellis put up 27.5 per game on %50 FG, and %48 3P% on 4.1 3PA. He doesn’t have a big name, but the man is probably the 3rd or 4th best scorer in this series (both teams), and doesn’t need to dominant the ball to be effective. He will run off screens and get his, while making Barry work on this end on the ball, he will have more trouble against the defense of Ron Artest granted, but Ellis will make Barry pay when he is matched up with him and on the other end he will only be guarding Barry for 10 minutes, the rest of the time he’ll be guarding Ray Allen.

In essence, I have ways to get easy buckets, something that is hard to come by in these competitions. T-Mac’s best defender is at the C spot, where we have our worst offensive player starting, and we’ll try and put Hakeem in foul trouble if his primary role is play hel defense. West averaged 40ppg (on TS% .581, and %50 FG efficiently in the reg. season) in the playoffs in my chosen season and other than Hakeem doesn’t have to worry to much about shot blocking outside of Hakeem, Lucas is a non-factor, as was Barry.

Defense

I'll go shorter here.

DJ is one of the best PG defender's ever, and he will be guarding Paul. Paul will have trouble shooting over the much taller DJ, and will have a lockdown defender breathing down his neck everywhere he goes.

His quick hands and feet made him a constant threat to strip the ball from opponents. He always seemed to be in the middle of the action. He could post up, crash the boards for rebounds and tip-ins, hit from the outside and lead the fast break. And he could pass with the best of the league's playmakers.

He also match's Paul's competitive fire.

Johnson was named to five All-Star teams and nine straight All-Defensive Teams. He was a member of three NBA championship squads, and his post-season heroics earned him a reputation as a money player. He was imbued with a contagious competitiveness. "I'm a winner," he once said. "I put my heart into the game. I hate to lose. I accept it when it comes, but I still hate it. That's the way I am."

Paul beats him in the passing department, but we have elite passing in his back-court partner in West, Ginobli off the bench, and of course KG.

West will guard MMR, during the 10 minutes he is playing at SG which shouldn't be to much of a concern (I'd like to point out that this isn't MMR at his passing peak of 10 apg). MMR is a high turn over player who can't shoot from 3 with any efficiency (.225 on 1.3 3PA). During this time we will double off of MMR to help Ellis double Barry, MMR isn't a good shooter and we'll take advantage. If he chooses to drive into a wall of KG/Mutombo (two of the best shot blockers for their position, ever) than more power to him. The rest of the time West will guard Artest or MMR with DJ on Artest.

Ellis like I said before will see a bit of time on Barry, but primarily he will be guarding Allen. KG will guard Lucas who is starting primarily for rebounding I'd think, and play help defense and Mutombo will check Hakeem who will get his. The difference is that my opponents marque big man is being guarded by an all-time great defender, while ours (KG) is being guarded by a relatively poor one. We believe that KG will have a bigger series than Hakeem will.

Shot Blocking is also a huge plus for me, Hakeem and Mutombo are comparable (Mutombo is better in the chosen years but he'll have to concentrate on guarding Hakeem), hell maybe Hakeem will be able to shot more blocks than Mutombo due to the matchup, but KG kills Lucas (anecdotal I read up, and Lucas wasn't a particularly noted shot blocker), AK at 3.2 blocks per game is a lot better than Barry in this department. It is said that although blocks weren't tracked in the 60's, that West was probably the best shot blocking guard of all time, think of a better Wade. MMR and Allen don't compare. DJ was a bit better than a block per game guy, but look for that to go up against the much smaller Paul.

Chemistry/Intangibles

In these games, a factor that is rarely brought up. However in this case, I feel I have a signifigant advantage. Ron Artest is a violate character, during the next season he was suspended for the remainder of the season—86 games (73 regular season games and 13 playoff games) because of the Brawl incident. In short Artest is just as likely to make a great defensive play as he is to get his team a technical for being bat sh*t crazy. I won't go thorugh all the stories, but suffice to say with Artest you never know what your going to get.

At the same position, SF, we have the GOAT assh*le of all-time in Rick Barry. Lets compare him to our go to wing player in West. I had to read up and in doing so, I have come to appreciate West more and more.

West was MUCH better defender than Barry, West was the best defensive guard for a decade until Frazier entered the league, Barry wasn't in the same league as guys like Havlicek or DeBusschere. Barry was a good shooter, West may have had the most deadly jumpshot of all-time and he was the better clutch player. Barry was a slighty better rebounder but consider positions and it's a non-issue, and West was a better passer regardless of whether my version isn't the pure(ish) PG he is in the 70's. West is also more efficent.

West is perhaps one of the best playoff performers ever, here is what he did in my chosen year against the Russel Celtics.

1965 Finals West 26pts/45pts/43pts/22pts/33pts/

Not to shabby, and in most years he took less FGA's than Baylor and Wilt.

West would get of a huge period advantage playing today, far more than Barry. Barry was a great player, but there's no real question who was a better player and when you bring in intangibles and leadership, the gap becomes larger.

But perhaps the biggest difference, Barry was the worst team mate you could ever have. He was the prototypical egotistical jerk who always took credit for everything. He had no tact, which he admitted himself, and always thought that his team mates were beneath him. West on the other hand was the best team mate you could ever have, gifted with a legendary work ethic and described one of the true good guy's this league has ever seen.

Rebounding

Let’s look at the numbers, the TRB% of all starters is the best way to compare rebounding across era’s.

Mutombo 19.9 / Hakeem 16.2

KG 20.1 / Lucas 18.89

Ellis 6 / Barry 6.9 (Kirilenko is playing the most minutes off my bench, starters minutes, and his rate is 12.9)

MRR 9.8 / West 6.1 (though Ray Allen’s is at 7.8 and he is playing the majority of minutes at SG so it’s closer there)

Paul 6.2 / Johnson 7.2

Used TrueLAFan’s formula for Lucas and West, seems pretty accurate. As you can see, we should have a healthy rebounding advantage, and like T-Mac likes to say the team that controls the boards, controls the game. Lucas is an elite rebounder but KG’s historical season beats him out, and Mutombo has a higher rate than Hakeem who isn’t being used in his peak rebounding season. Johnson is not only a better rebounder than Paul, but also has about 4-5 inchs on him which should help in this department. MRR is only playing 10 minutes At SG, and his PG minutes are matched up with Ginobli who has a rebounding rate of 9.1, comparable to MMR. Bellamy is a comparable rebounder to Lucas, and he is playing off the bench, killing his counterpart in JO, and Ho Grant is a better rebounder than Larry Nance. We clearly have the advantage in this department.

Conclusion

We feel that we have the best closer/player on the wing's, and the difference between Hakeem and Mutombo (Mutombo's defense is what I'm talking about of course) is smaller than the difference between Lucas and KG. We are the better rebounding team, and are able to throw elite defenders on the other teams main offensive options. Lucas can't contain KG, Paul will get posted up by DJ all series, Ellis is being guarded by Barry (I went over this matchup in more detail), and West will be guarded by Allen for 28 minutes, and even MMR who is a good defender isn't on the level of a Pippen or a Moncrief which is what you need to really slow down a player of West's caliper.

Anyways I've made my case, judge away. T-Mac, always a pleasure.

[Miller4ever]

The Really Really Serious Guys vs. Whatever Myth_Breaker's team name is

Jason Kidd(36)/Don Buse(12)
Tracy McGrady(36)/Dan Majerle(12)
Paul Pressey(30)/Alex English(18)
Nate Thurmond(24)/Dan Roundfield(24)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar(36)/Nate Thurmond(12)

All you gotta know:

BETTER REBOUNDING + BETTER DEFENSE = MORE POSSESSIONS THAN OPPONENT

BETTER PASSING = EFFICIENT OFFENSE

MORE POSSESSIONS THAN OPPONENT + EFFICIENT OFFENSE = MORE POINTS THAN OPPONENT

Read on if you want details:

BETTER REBOUNDING:

My backcourt has a significant size advantage. Kidd's got 3-4 inches on Stock, T-Mac has 5-6 inches on Alvin. Other than that, our players are pretty even. Our bench backcourt of Don Buse and Dan Majerle holds a similar 3-inch and 4-inch advantage on their guys. That totals to a 15-17 inch advantage in the backcourt positions, and a 12-14 inch advantage overall (Pressey is 2 inches shorter, Gilmore is 1 inch shorter, English and Rice are the same, Lacey + Roundfield = Lucas + Daniels).

It may seem like my opponent has an advantage on the boards statistically, but when you look at the starting lineups from top to bottom, we hold the advantage, not just height-wise, but statistically, and that gives us more possessions.

BETTER DEFENSE:

Kidd vs. Stock - While I believe that Stock is underrated on defense and that his playmaking is great, Kidd plays both the passing lanes and shuts down opposing PG's with his combination of size and speed.

T-Mac vs. Alvin - Alvin does a great job of ball hawking, and I would give him the advantage here, but Tracy McGrady has nearly half a foot on Robertson. T-Mac also nullifies Alvin's style of defense by doing a lot of moving off the ball.

Pressey vs. Kangaroo - As great of a player as Cunningham was, he was not known for his defense. Pressey was a multiple all-defensive 1st selection.

Nate vs. Tim - Two top-10 defensive bigs at the same time. Both PF/C's. I'd be willing to call it even.

Kareem vs. Gilmore - Gilmore was a great ABA defensive center. He could block shots. Kareem is Kareem.

BETTER PASSING

Yes, the opponent has Stock. I have lowly Kidd, averaging three assists less than Stock. This is cancelled out by Pressey's assist average being 3 above Billy Cunninghams. T-Mac and Alvin get the same numbers. Where the difference is made is by the superiority of my big man passing. Nate averages more dimes than Duncan, and Kareem is a vastly better passer than the "A" Train. Off the bench, my passers are also better, with Don Buse leading the ABA and the NBA in passing in two different years compared to Tony Parker's mediocre assists. Sam Lacey has 5.5 assists as a C, which is almost as good as what Tony Parker does as a PG. Majerle and English both dish out 5 a game, Dan Roundfield is not on this team because of his passing, but even with him factored in we still hold a significant edge in balanced passing. The numbers show it, and we all know they did it.

OTHER POINTS

I match up well against my opponent's team. Besides the big differences in height in the backcourt, there's also Pressey on Cunningham. Cunningham is this team's big-name scorer after the big guys. With my best non-big defender on him, it plays to my strengths, while Cunningham won't significantly hamper Pressey's ability to do what he does as point-forward. Nate Thurmond guards the best interior option for this team, Tim Duncan. Meanwhile, his best defensive players are not on my best offensive players, unless he feels like putting a shorter Tim Duncan on Kareem.

[SabasRevenge!]

SabasRevenge!

Cooper/Porter
Havlicek/Hornacek
James/Schrempf
Unseld/Hayes
Mourning/Ruland

v.

CellarDoor

Payton/Kirk
Carter/Bowen
Bird/Aguirre
Hawkins/Williams
Lanier/Sabonis


Cooper (24) / Porter (24)
Havlicek (40) / Cooper (8) / Hornacek**
James (38) / Schrempf (10)
Unseld*/Hayes (48)
Mourning (36-38) / Unseld/Hayes (10-12) / Ruland**

*Unseld will play at least 25 minutes
**situational

Payton(40)/
Carter(40)/Bowen(16)
Bird(40)/
Hawkins(25)/Williams(31)
Lanier(38)/Sabonis(10)

First, I'd like to take an extended look at an overlooked positional battle in this game: PF. I highlight it because it's a major advantage for me.

Attention must be called to how inferior the ABA was in it's first year, Hawkins chosen season. This absolutely must be considered when judging this match up:

Connie Hawkins chosen season is the ABA's inaugural year.

The expansion ABA had a fraction of the talent of the ABA in the mid-70's. Rick Barry was their big steal from the NBA, but he was injured for the entire year. Rookie Mel Daniels, who shot .408 in this campaign, was the league's only other young player who would become a star. The second leading scorer was 29 year old rookie Doug Moe, whose scoring dropped by over 5ppg the next year. Third was Levern Tart, whose scoring dropped by 50% the following year.

Using Hawkins MVP year is like using a MLB strike year when the majors was composed of AAA players and journeymen.

A comparison: the NBA's average FG% was .446, the ABA's was .420.

The All-ABA teams consisted of Mel Daniels and Connie Hawkins, followed by Larry Jones, Doug Moe, Charles Williams, John Beasley, Larry Brown, Roger Brown, Louie Dampier, and Cincinnatus Powell.

The All-NBA teams consisted of Elgin Baylor, Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry Lucas, Oscar Robertson, Dave Bing, John Havlicek, Jerry West, Bill Russell, Willis Reed, and Hal Greer.

It's a hit list of All-Time Greats and the same competition Unseld was up against when he won league MVP by leading the Bullets to a 21 game improvement and a division title in his rookie season. Same with Hayes.

The NBA All-Star Game featured 14 future hall of famers while the ABA featured three: Hawkins, Larry Brown (as a coach), and a washed up Cliff Hagan.

Hagan is a great example of just how severe the talent disparity was. He was an NBA all-star from his prime at 26 in 1958 until he was 30 in 1962. Five consecutive appearances.
His next all-star appearance came at 36 years old in the first year of the expansion ABA when he went from 13.7/3.2/2.2 on .445 in the NBA to 18.2/6.0/4.9 on .489. Did he suddenly find the fountain of youth at 36 years old? No. The competition in the ABA was simply very inferior in that expansion year.

Connie Hawkins dominating in the ABA's expansion year is almost akin to dominating the NBDL. His production declined virtually every season after his rookie year in the expansion ABA. Hawkins scoring, rebounding, and efficiency took an immediate hit in the NBA and his PER lost a full ten points in his first year, dropping further each season thereafter. While Hawkins made the playoffs in his two ABA seasons, he only managed two more playoff appearances for the rest of his career.

Even though Cellar is wisely playing Hawkins for only 25 minutes per game, we intend to exploit that match up all day. Hayes and Unseld will roughly split the 58-60 minutes of PF/backup C time and Hayes will be a huge mismatch for Hawkins. If Bird switches on to Hayes or Unseld because he is better at defending PFs, Hawkins will get destroyed by James. The fact of the matter is that Hawkins is a tweener who is close in size to Travis Outlaw (though Outlaw weighs more). Larry Bird is more of a PF than Hawkins.

I'm fine with pre-injury MVP Unseld checking Hawkins and I'm thrilled about Elvin Hayes going against him. '77 Hayes would pretty much destroy Hawkins on both sides of the ball. I can buy that he would be a good help defender if he left his ma, but he's still very undersized as a PF. I'll exploit that match up all day. It appears that Hawkins will get eight minutes at SF when Bird is not in the game. Those minutes will be crucial for me because James will take him apart.

Elvin Hayes:

I don't want to underestimate the impact that I believe Elvin Hayes will have in this series. Hayes is a nice starter in an ATL, so he's a true luxury as a sixth man and a great big scoring option whenever he's in the game.

He'll appear right in the middle of any sort of list of the greatest all-time PFs:
7 - http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=2074360
2 - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1128 ... ory#page/5
6 - http://nbahoopsonline.com/Articles/2008 ... ltime.html
4 - http://backseatcoach.blogspot.com/2008/ ... -time.html

His range and strength will be a bit problem for Hawkins. As an excellent rebounder and potent inside-outside offensive weapon, he'll be quite a chore for Williams as well.

While still a top defender, '83 Buck is not the same defender that early 90's Buck was with the Blazers. He was still five years away from his first All-D second team nod. I grew up watching Williams and while I respect his little mid-range jumper, he pumped up his FG% by being a great garbage man.

While we're on the subject, lets look at MVP Wes Unseld. Just how incredible was that season? In 1968 the Bullets finished 36-46. Seven of their players finished averaging over 24 minutes and 12 points per game. The rest of the team played less that 14 MPG.

In 1969, the Bullets returned the same seven guys who played the vast majority of their minutes and three of their deep bench guys. They featured the exact same team with the addition of Unseld. What happened? The Bullets did a complete 180, going from LAST in the East to FIRST in the East. Sure, they lost to Frazier/Reed/Bellamy/Debusschere/Bradley/etc. in the first round, but it wasn't because of Wes.

His 1968 playoff line: 18.8/18.5 on .526/.789.

In 1968 Wes Unseld was more important to his team than any other player in the NBA. When all was said and done, he was recognized as the best player in the league.

It's also important to remember that this is pre-knee-injury Unseld. Here's a quote from penbeast in his last write up:

He was a legit MVP taking the Bullets from worst in the East to best in the league in one year and his rookie year was easily his best as both a help defender and manning up against more mobile opps like Barkley.

Unseld is not an immoble mass under the bucket that Hawkins will simply attack, he's an immensely strong, mobile defender who will make life miserable for whoever he's on. Lets not forget about the intangibles he brings to the game as well. Unseld is also the best rebounder in this match up.

Ultimately, Unseld/Hayes v. Hawkins/Williams is a pretty sizable and important advantage for the Tall Firs.

Next and much more briefly at C, we have Mourning and Lanier. This is an interesting match up because Lanier was selected only ten picks behind Mourning. Based on my opponent's write up, Buck Williams will see the majority of the time guarding Mourning. Again, while Williams was certainly a good defender in '83 at 22 years old, he wasn't the same heady, mature Williams that completed the Blazers and won back to back 1st Team All-D selection in the early 90's. He was more prolific offensively, but not the same on defense. I understand why my opponent would rather have Williams on Zo and put Lanier on Unseld, but Williams is considerably smaller than Zo and not an especially quick player and Lanier will have to guard Hayes as well.

Here's a simple adjustment to 95 possessions per game:
Lanier 104.4 pace - 20.5/12.1/3.8/2.7, 4.5 fta/g
Mourning 89.0 pace - 21.5/11.8/1.7/4.2, 9.8 fta/g

It's interesting how similar Lanier and Mourning are statistically, but Mourning has a fair defensive advantage and an advantage inside.

Even playing at the slowest pace in the league, Mourning took almost ten free throws per game, twice as many as Lanier. He drew fouls at almost the exact same rate as Dwight Howard last year. This spells big time trouble for Lanier and Williams because Mourning is that good around the basket.

Lets also not overlook Mourning's mid-range game. His jumper was true. My opponent says he'll grant Zo mid-range jumpers all game. Will he also leave Hayes open? Zo and Hayes will drain 15-footers all day and night, especially uncontested.

Zo gives us a legitimate beast in the paint on both ends of the floor who has the hustle and work ethic that matches the rest of our squad. He's also the best defensive big man in this series. With Zo and Unseld inside, nobody will outwork us.

Offensive Summary:

Our primary scorer is James, but he has a fantastic target down low in Zo and a big time player to compliment him on the perimeter in Hondo. He also has Cooper to hit on cuts to the basket or for open threes, as well as a very good shooter and playmaker in Porter. Off the bench, Hayes is a fantastic option on offense as well. Unseld will be focusing on offensive rebounding, setting picks, though his 18+ppg in the playoffs prove that he could be an offensive weapon when it mattered most. When James is on the bench, Schrempf/Hondo/Porter will assume primary playmaking duties.

Havlicek and Porter are our secondary playmakers with Schrempf assuming some duties when James is on the bench for around 10 minutes per game.

With Payton on Hondo, Havlicek will do his usual thing and run all game long. He moved non-stop for over 45 minutes per game in his selected season, and 47 minutes per game in the playoffs. Payton averaged 39 minutes per game, but my opponent has him playing 40 minutes while guarding Hondo. If anything, I would have expected a reduction in minutes to keep up with Havlicek. Payton is an incredible defender, but he will be fighting exhaustion for this entire series.

My opponent chose Larry Bird's last 2nd team all-D selection. His assignment is Lebron James. Lebron James isn't guarding Bird. This is a huge advantage for James. Bird is tough, strong, and skilled, but he's not fast enough to stay with James. He'll be fighting the stronger, faster James for most of the game.

Both Mourning and Unseld are famous for their bone-jarring picks. Unseld is maybe GOAT pick setter and Bird/Payton/Carter must be prepared to fight through the most brutal picks ever to stay with their man. My opponent's inclination to switch on D combined with our amazing pick setting will allow us to encounter some very favorable mismatches.

So on top of having to check Lebron and Hondo, Bird and Payton will have to contend with Mourning and Unseld setting picks... oh, and Bird will have Michael Cooper, the man Bird repeatedly said defended him the best, about an inch away from him for most of his minutes.

This is all to say that Payton and Bird will get very tired playing 40 minutes per game over a seven game series. Part of our offensive strategy is to wear them out, giving us an edge at the end of the game.

Running:
To be clear, we will look to run on offense with the speed and energy of our perimeter players, but we're not a gambling team defensively. Our running opportunities will come from tiring out our opponents and getting out after defensive rebounds. With open court players like James, Hondo, and Porter, it would be silly not to run when we have the chance.

Spacing:
Spacing will not be an issue for me. As I mentioned in my previous write up, Cooper was #2 in 3pt makes while shooting 39%. Porter, another big minute guy, shot .415 and Schrempf shot over 50% from downtown. James was a good three point shooter last year, but sometimes he was just unconscious... especially against my Blazers. Both Hayes and Mourning were good mid-range shooters. Zo could hit the 20 footer, but Hayes was proficient at the 20-footer. Havlicek was a good outside shooter. Like any player from that era, his three point shooting is up for debate. I assumed that Sam Jones would be a three point threat last round and Hondo will undoubtedly be fine from 20+, providing me with good spacing even if his three point shooting is unknown.

Passing:
I don't concede passing as an advantage for my opponent, only that his PF and C had a higher assist percentage than mine, and Hawkins was playing in a far inferior league.
James has a much higher assist rate than Bird.
Hondo had a higher rate than Carter.
Porter had a higher rate than Payton, Cooper's rater was lower.
Of course, Schrempf is a much better passer than Bowen.

His big men may be better passers, but my perimeter players have an advantage. I'll take a perimeter passing advantage over a big man advantage, especially with James rate dwarfing Bird's and even Porter's beating Payton's. Passing is an advantage for the Tall First because our guys who actually have the ball in their hands are better.

Rebounding Summary:
With Unseld/Mourning/Hayes in the frontcourt and very good positional rebounders all around them, my opponent conceded the rebounding advantage to me. He may be right that it is not a huge advantage, but it could be, especially for the time that Hawkins is at PF. I'd also like to highlight the fact that oftentimes my opponent plans to use Lanier away from the bucket. He says he doesn't plan on using his bigs near the basket. This only serves to increase Mourning and the rest of our team's advantage.

Defense:
We built our squad to always have a defensive advantage and this series is no different.

The Key Matchup:
Larry Bird has always said that Michael Cooper was the best defender he ever played against. There are some players that nobody is going to be able to stop. Larry Bird is one of them. With Cooper assigned solely to making Bird's life hell, something he was very good at doing, we can limit Bird and make him work very hard. Lets not forget that Bird will be tired from checking James on the other end. If Bird would have exploded for 40, guarding James and being guarded by Cooper will certainly reduce his output. Bird is being asked to guard out best player, a guy who is bigger and faster than him, and carry the load on offense. Part of our defensive strategy is exhausting him.

I'd also like to call attention to the fact that Bird took less than a three per game, making under 25% of them. He's a great outside shooter no doubt, but he was not a three point threat until the following year. I'm not going to leave him open on the perimeter, but he was not making threes with any regularity yet.

Hondo will be assigned to Payton and once again prevent dribble penetration. Payton was okay from distance, but .328 from a .317 career shooter doesn't really scare us. He's not the most efficient guard and we're hoping that he forces things against an all-time lock down defender in Hondo. A big part of Payton's game was his ability to post up his opponent. Havlicek is taller and stronger than Payton with incredibly quick hands and (especially) feet. Posting up Hondo is a bad idea, especially with the quality of our interior defenders. We feel that Hondo will frustrate Payton and make him even more inefficient, as well as preventing consistent dribble and applying pressure as soon as Payton touches the ball.

Lebron James finished second in DPOY voting last year and was voted to the All-D first team. He definitely deserved it. Vince Carter took a TON of shots in his chosen year, over 22 per game. He took care of the ball very well but wasn't terribly efficient. Carter did and still does take too many ill-advised shots and we're counting on some of that in this series. With great help defenders all around the court and James on him, Carter will have a difficult time getting good looks.

While we respect Bowen's ability to hit that corner three, he allows one of our primary perimeter defenders to rest a bit when he's in the game.

Inside, we feel fine about Unseld/Hayes on Hawkins, as we stated earlier. We also like Zo on Lanier even if Lanier floats away from the bucket. Prime Mourning was a tremendous help defender and is famous for challenging even the best finishers at the rim.

Overall Defense:
Once again, our defensive advantage starts the moment our opponent touches the ball with Hondo and Cooper on the perimeter. Our opponent's first option is defended by the man who limited him best and his second volume scorer is guarded by a physical freak who finished 2nd in DPOY voting. Both of our starting post defenders are very, very good, including a DPOY post anchor. Off the bench, both of our squads offer a solid defensive big man, though mine is better offensively.

By denying penetration, tiring out Bird/Payton on offense, and always having two very strong, capable post defenders in the game, we can force our opponent into taking contested jumpers, especially with his plan to use his big men that way. Expect a lot of shots late in the shot clock and some violations.

Both Payton and Cooper were DPOY. After the PG match up, we're defensively superior at every position with a very cohesive defensive unit.

Advantages:
Defense - Perimeter, Post, Help, and Man
Match Ups Accentuate our Energy/Endurance and Wear Our Opponent Out
Perimeter Passing
Rebounding at Virtually Every Position and Overall
Bench Scoring and Bench Overall: Hayes/Porter/Schrempf v. Williams/Bowen/Sabonis

Overall, we really like our chances to close this out in less than seven. If it goes seven, our opponent will be very tired. Beginning with superior defense and rebounding, I also believe that we have much, much more favorable match ups on offense. Cooper guarding Bird and Bird guarding James is huge in this series. Not considering match ups, we believe that this series is relatively even on offense, but our rebounding advantage and especially our defensive advantage puts us over the top.

[TMACFORMVP]

I'd like to say to Warspite, that winning was bittersweet, I definitely feel you had a top five team in the league, and it's a crime that you were eliminated so much earlier. It's the type of team you face in the latter rounds, not the first round. For the matchup on hand, as always BI, will be a pleasure to face you. I'm going to do a shorter writeup, as judges seem to prefer that and I'm going to be rather busy for this upcoming week. So, I'll just try to hit the main points, and do a rebuttal if necessary, most likely the case with a competitor like BI. So, ultimately, may the best team win, which I fully intend to do so.



Nobody to guard Barry/Perimeter Options

Kirilenko is coming off the bench, and ultimately isn't a large enough factor to really change the course of this series. If he were to get an increase in minutes, we're still confident Barry would score on him (as he faced Bobby Jones last round), and that ultimately worsens BI's offense, and then opens up a spacing problem, since Kirilenko is not a good shooter from behind the arc. It's then much easier to help, as West is the only player capable of firing from distance.

West is small, and already has enough responsibility, and while DJ could conceivably do the deed, he won't have much success either. I'm sure my opponent will point out, he's guarded larger players, such as Magic, and reportedly done a good job, but there's discrete differences in both of their games. Not only did Magic still dominate, even moreso (check his stats in general, they went UP against DJ, and the C's), but Barry has a much more offensively, "I'm going to score on you," attitude than Magic did. In terms of scoring points, explosively, Barry in his one year peak was unstoppable.

Not to mention, that would leave Ellis on Ray Richardson. That would turn out to be an even greater advantage for us than any other matchup, because with his slashing ability, he'd blow right by Ellis, and with Deke busy guarding Hakeem, and Lucas drawing KG out to the perimeter, he'd be able to finish at the rim. Ellis couldn't guard players at his own position, let alone, a PG with size, and quickness.

That also creates other matchup problems, as that means West will be on Paul. He should do a good job, but Paul's primary job is to create, and like West, I'll concede gets his, as will Paul.

No true PG/Execution/4th Quarter/Post Scoring

Which points towards our passing and execution to be much more crisp and efficient. The season chosen for West was his 64-65, in which he clearly hadn't developed into a PG role, something he did in the late 60's, and early 70's. Then factor that in with 70's DJ, meaning the one who played on the Sonics, he wasn't a PG either. Both the starting guard for my opponents team averaged under five assists per game.

On the other hand, we've already gone into depth Paul's all time assist to turnover ratio, Barry's playmaking from the wing (while proving he wasn't ridiculously turnover prone), and even MRR, and Hakeem from the post. Our passing is better at every position, save PF. For that alone, no matter how clutch West was, Barry in his one year peak is comparable, and our team all rounded are a much better executing team.

And it's interesting to note, in the last round, Manu Ginobili was the combo hard off the bench, playing all the backup PG minutes as well. I'm sure saying all this, that will be quickly changed, and Hardaway will get those remaining thirteen odd minutes, but ultimately that wouldn't be enough. I could see my opponent raising his minutes, but that also means, he'll likely have to cover one of Paul, or Allen/MRR, which means, whomever Hardaway is on, will likely take advantage.

Also, Bellamy is the only true low post option on my opponents team, and he wasn't a particularly strong defender, not to mention, with his reputation being as a sort of blackhole. And, while I'm not a largely in favor of this argument, he is after all, a rookie nonetheless. But, he obviously won't be there in a closing lineup sense, so that's moot. And while I feel big man get exploited in clutch time (not in Hakeem's sense), it's important to have a post option that can get you easy buckets during the game.

Perimeter Defense on West/DJ/Ellis

We'll be putting MRR. He has the size to disrupt West's ability to pull up and shoot, and have the quickness to stay with him in transition, or slashing to the basket. West will still get his, but with an elite defender on him, he'll get his with a greater difficulty than Barry will.

It also helps we can double off of DJ, as he's a pathetic shooter from the field, roughly 42-43%, and not a threat from behind the arc. He barely averaged three assists, and at this point in his career, wasn't a guy that could beat you offensively. He became more efficient, and effective later in his career. As for Ellis, he'll be hard to stop, but ultimately, on this team, he's a spot up shooter. Barry wasn't a terrible defender, he at the worst forced turnovers, and had the size, and attitude to body up with his man. Ellis will get his, but it won't be enough to win this series. It's also interesting to note, we'll have Artest in the game for 26 odd minutes, a DPOY wing player capable of guarding Ellis effectively.

This puts Paul ON DJ, which means Paul can entirely focus on doing his thing offensively. As I've already gone over, DJ was a very poor offensive player that shot a terrible percentage from the field, and hadn't developed that mid-range shot in which he used so often later in his career. And with obviously not being a threat from behind the arc, or anywhere for that matter, it opens up chances to help on defense with West's penetration, or Ellis's shooting (we feel it's not important to double the bigs, as KG thrives when he is doubled, as he's not a big time scorer, and Mutombo is strictly a defensive player in these competitions).

94-95 Deke vs. Hakeem 93-94

Code: Select all

35 points, 17 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 blocks on 16-31
22 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 blocks on 10-24
33 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 5 blocks on 15-28
31 points, 12 rebounds, 1 assist, 5 blocks on 11-27
34 points, 13 rebounds, 5 assists, 8 blocks on 15-21
26 points, 13 rebounds, 1 assist, 4 blocks on 11-24
27 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 5 blocks on 10-23
41 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 0 blocks on 16-26
25 points, 13 rebounds, 1 assist, 5 blocks on 12-22

(9 games sample size, over those two years)

30.4 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 5.4 BPG, .513 FG%

This also proves that Hakeem has more freedom to block shots because Deke wasn't an offensive threat. It also reduces Deke's shot-blocking as he'll be too busy ineffectively guarding Hakeem, stats back that up as Mutombo averaged 4.0 blocks over those two seasons, and averaged just under 2.7 against Hakeem. That's nearly 40% drop off in terms of blocks per game by Deke.

Hakeem won't get held down in this matchup, he'll absolutely, and thoroughly dominate it. And if Bellamy were to come in, well, we know.

Rebounding

I think in this case, it's important to see the head to head matchups. Above, I've shown above, with Hakeem's stats, it's interesting to note, Dekes games were as follows:

93 rebounds (9 games) --> 10.3 rebounds per game. And as we saw, Hakeem's was at 11.8.

KG is an elite rebounder, but Lucas himself is one of the greatest of all time. Pace adjust and it's closer, but Lucas still has the slight edge. Regardless, they're comparable enough, while Hakeem is proven to outplay Deke on the boards (in everything rather), that we can say our frontcourt has the edge in rebounding.

I love BI's backcourt rebounding, as both West, and DJ are great rebounders at the G position. The same can be said for MRR, who's a better rebounder than the both of them, and Paul, whom I actually picked in his worst rebounding season. But whatever edge there is negated with Barry, and Ellis, as Barry is a considerably better rebounder than Ellis as well.

We feel if we can control the boards, as we've shown, our team can prevail victorious.

Conclusion

Overall, BI has built a fantastic team that's capable on both ends of the floor. But I feel our defensive strategies against their stars are much more effective, than their strategy against ours, as they have no one to check Barry, or Hakeem. Paul is in that class of elite players that don't get stopped, even by the best of defense, and guys like MRR serve their purpose (defense on West, possible offensive mismatch if Ellis is on him), and same with Allen and his shooting ability as well. Then factor in rebounding, execution down the stretch, overall passing/play-making, and our superior post play, we feel we'll come out victorious.

- We also would like to admit, KG will get the best of Lucas, but we'd like to note as we have mentioned before that one of KG's strengths is his rebounding. In this case, that's pretty much negated. Lucas isn't a terrible defender either, he's not a great defender, but he's noted as one of the smartest defenders to have ever played, even known for knowing every play from every teams playbook. Add that into the fact that KG is not the explosive scoring type that can average 40 points for a series (or even for a game), then he won't absolutely kill us, and not be enough a deciding factor (as his rebounding will also be negated covering Lucas on the perimeter) to overcome the large edge we have in the Olajuwon, Barry, and Paul matchup.

Best of luck BI.

[Myth_Breaker]

Sorry, very busy at work, probably can't answer before Saturday-Sunday. If you wanna go on, I won't delay you all, but on the other hand I see I'm not the only one without the writeup yet, right?

[SamBone]

Finally, let's take a look at rebounding.

ORB%:

All In The Name
PG: 2.7
SG: 7.6
SF: 11.3
PF: 9.1
C: 11.1
average: 8.4

SamBone
PG: 2.6
SG: 5.1
SF: 6.9
PF: 10.7
C: 11.6
average: 7.4

DRB%:

All In The Name
PG: 11.1
SG: 9.7
SF: 23.2
PF: 23.7
C: 26.0
average: 18.7

SamBone
PG: 10.7
SG: 13.1
SF: 15.1
PF: 23.0
C: 27.2
average: 17.8

TRB%

All In The Name
PG: 6.9
SG: 8.7
SF: 17.3
PF: 16.4
C: 18.6
average: 13.6

SamBone
PG: 6.7
SG: 9.1
SF: 11.0
PF: 16.9
C: 19.4
average: 12.6

So, for the most part, it's fairly even overall, except for SF, where we enjoy a sizable advantage.

before i write a rebuttal, can you please tell me the guys you included at what position in these stats? Meaning is your startinf PF in the SF category(were he gets most minutes) or at PF. Same with your starting SF (getting most min at SG).

Also when Rodman is guarding Nash, MJ, Worthy, and Pettit (was wondering how many Rodmans are on the court at once) who will be matched up against the others? Meaning if the worm is on Nash, Squid on MJ, will Frasier be on Worthy? and Hudson and Pettit?

Thanks in advance for clearing this up for me.

[CellarDoor]

I'll get more in depth in a few matters later (Snake, I'd like to request you hold off on voting early on mine. I have a metaphysics midterm tomorrow and I've had my write-up done a while, but was hostage on rebuttals until Sabas posted it)

Gary Payton minutes in the playoffs were never below 41mpg in his prime, so to look at his season stats (still routinely over 39/40) isn't telling the whole story. And he initiated the offense and was the only ballhandler. The only other real threat on offense was Schrempf a few years and Kemp. To say he can't handle the minutes is simply not correct.

Larry Bird never averaged under 40mpg in the POs in his 80s career. And he shot 41% on his 3s in the POs in the selected year. His game is abusing people in the post and shooting 3s when he has to at this point in his career. Because of that, a lot of his 3s were desperation attempts in the regular season, thus lowering his %.

Regarding assist rates: it's very dependent on who else is on your team. Bird was on a team with McHale as the secondary scorer. A guy who got the ball and stopped it, worked in the post and got his baskets. When 25 of your teams points come from a guy like your assist RATE is going to drop. No one on this planet is going to easily concede the passing advantage to Lebron (or Bird, for that matter).

Regarding Cooper guarding Bird best. you summed it up well yourself some people you just don't stop. I don't have BBR game logs for Bird's selected season, but there were game logs for the RS in Cooper's selected season: Bird shot over 70% in his games against LA. He's simply too short to handle Bird in the post. He'll play him hard and admirably, but ultimately fail. And Bird's got Lanier/Sabonis/Williams sagging off their men in the post to help out on D. You're overestimating his "fatigue".

Regarding the big men in general: if Zo starts to beat up Buck IN THE POST, then we'll consider switching. Zo's a scorer, Unseld isn't someone we're terribly worried about. He stepped it up in the POs on a team where he was a top option and still only scored 18 a game. If my opponent would like to feed Unseld and give him a chance to score, feel free. It's more time for the terribly fatigued Bird to rest. Lanier can more than handle Zo, who averaged those statistics after Hakeem and Ewing's declines and in the east where the next best center was...? Mutumbo I think?

Regarding Hawkins: I think you're underestimating his athletic tools and/or overestimating Unseld (even rookie Unseld)'s speed. Hawkins had a good midrange jumper and if given the chance, he can either sink that or get around Unseld. Defensively, he's going to be matched up against Schrempf and Unseld for the lion's share of his minutes. Schrempf, while a good scorer, isn't going to physically dominate Hawkins. Especially not the motivated Hawkins still trying to recover from his broken image of a scandal he wasn't even a part of.

Lebron's defense: Lebron last season played terrific help defense and, for the lion's share of the game, average to slightly above average man-D. He accomplished this by guarding the worst wing player and allowing West to guard the best. Last year in the POs against Orlando he guarded Alson most of the series while Turkoglu and Lewis went off. And when he tried to play help D, he got burned By Alston who drained 3s when left open all series. I think we can all agree this iteration of Bowen and Carter are better shooters than Alston was and Lebron isn't going to "stop" a Carter level scorer...truth be told he likely won't even hurt his efficiency.

Speaking of Carter...my opponent spoke of him not being that efficient: I want to direct you guys to this page:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2001.html
That team you see is worse than Lebron's team was last year, which is hard to do. The fact that Carter got his TS to 55% on a team with no credible 4th option on a playoff team, much less 2nd, is a testament to how good and how unstoppable carter really was.

Quick note on the rebounding: if Lanier and Hawkins are away from the basket too, how do you see Alonzo getting even MORE boards? Leaving Lanier open? With the bigs pulled away from the basket it's going to be the guys inthe post (Bird, Lebron, Payton, Hondo) and the cutters (VC, occasionally Hawkins, Cooper, Unseld) closest to the basket. Frankly I envision both teams getting a fair amount of offensive rebounds, but both team's defensive rebounding being lower than expected, which will serve to slow down the fast breaks some as well.

:::::NOTE:::::
This is a work in progress. As mentioned I have an important midterm tomorrow as well as a less worriesome test and I have a class to teach. I'll be busy until tomorrow night and I'm not sure if I'll be sleeping then or not. If the judges could give me until noon Friday I would appreciate it.

[All In The Name]

before i write a rebuttal, can you please tell me the guys you included at what position in these stats? Meaning is your startinf PF in the SF category(were he gets most minutes) or at PF. Same with your starting SF (getting most min at SG).

For the rebound rates, I used both team's minutes distributions to calculate an average TRB% at each position. For example, to calculate the TRB% on my team at PF, I multiplied Rodman's 26.2 by 12/48, Wallace's 12.8 by 30/48, and Ratliff's 14.5 by 6/48. This gave me the following three values: 6.55, 8, and 1.8125. I then added these numbers together, giving me a grand total of 16.3625, which rounds to 16.4. I did this for every position (using TrueLAFan's formula to estimate the TRB% for guys who played before or during the early 70s), so, yes, Rodman's (along with some other players on each team) TRB% was part of the calculations for two positions. Granted, this method is by no means perfect to determine the better rebounding team, but it does provide some insight. In this case, it shows that, statistically, I have the superior rebounding team, and I see no reason to believe that a more qualitative examination of the matchup would favor your team more than mine.

Also when Rodman is guarding Nash, MJ, Worthy, and Pettit (was wondering how many Rodmans are on the court at once) who will be matched up against the others? Meaning if the worm is on Nash, Squid on MJ, will Frasier be on Worthy? and Hudson and Pettit?

We don't want MJ to get too comfortable or used to one specific defender, so we believe that utilizing multiple guys to guard him is in our best interest. Additionally, Frazier, Moncrief, and, especially Rodman, are versatile enough to defend multiple positions. Thus we will use all 3 on MJ at different times of the game (just for clarification, each of the 3 will guard him 1-on-1; we don't anticipate too many triple teams). In changing Jordan's defender, though, we will also need to adjust the rest of our defensive alignment, which accounts for the 3 aforementioned defenders (which includes Rodman) seeing time guarding various players. But if I had to pick one guy who will guard Jordan the most, it would be Moncrief. With the starters in, we'll usually have Frazier guard Nash, Moncrief guard Jordan, Hudson on Worthy, Rodman on Pettit, and Shaq on Parish. But when I play my main lineup (the guys getting the most minutes at each position) of Frazier/Moncrief/Rodman/Rasheed/Shaq, Rodman will usually take on Worthy and Rasheed will defend Pettit.

Rebuttal

- When I get forced into half court sets, I will be running a lot of Pick and Pops. Having both MJ and Nash run P& P’s using Pettit and Parish. This will be attacking a main weakness of my opponent. Shaq was a beast post defender, but always got in trouble when he was pulled away from the basket. This often led to him getting in foul trouble, which would limit his minutes. Both Parish and Pettit were great shooting BIGS and this should give Shaq lots of problems. That added to the shooting of MJ and Nash should give us some half court advantages.

A pick and pop involving the players you mentioned is a nice play that will yield you some points throughout the series, but we can defend it very well. First of all, I'd like to again remind you that Shaq finished 2nd in DPOY, 1st in the league in Defensive Win Shares, 2nd in the league in Defensive Rating, anchored the #1 rated defensive team, and was easily at his defensive peak. He came into that season very motivated to win a title and was far more mobile than he's been since. He still was not a great pick-and-roll (or pop) defender and will not be switching on screens, but he wasn't a liability there in 2000. It's a better idea than trying to back him down in the post, but it's still not a major defensive weakness, by any means. Also keep in mind that Rasheed (who will often be guarding Pettit) was much quicker in the late 90s/early 00s and, with his long arms, will be able to do a good job against a Nash (or MJ)/Pettit pick-and-pop.

Also, remember that, in 1979, Parish shot under 50% and was not as good a player as he was during his prime with Boston. Nash is obviously an amazing shooter, one of the best ever, I won't argue with that. But I'd also like to point something out about Jordan. While he was a great mid-range shooter in 1996, he is not a major 3-point threat in this matchup, plain and simple. The line was shorter during this season (and the ones immediately before and after), skewing the 3-point stats of many. But take a look at Jordan's stats before and after these 3 seasons. In the 3 seasons prior to the shortening, Jordan averaged less than 0.6 made threes per game on about 32.4%. In 1998, when the line was moved back again, Jordan averaged 0.4 made threes per game on 23.8% shooting. Just wanted to throw that out there, as a quick glance at his numbers might give someone the false impression that he suddenly became a great 3-point shooter.

And I'm also going to have to dispute the notion that Shaq is some incredibly foul-prone player. That label might be somewhat fairer (although still not entirely true) when looking at his career as a whole, where, outside of his selected season, he has fouled out of about 5.3% of his total regular season games, but, during the '00 regular season, Shaq only fouled out of 2 of his 79 games, or about 2.5%. This drop can be in large part attributed to Shaq's greater commitment to defense that season. Furthermore, Shaq has averaged 3.6 fouls per 36 minutes outside of that season; he only averaged about 2.9 fouls per 36 minutes in 1999-00, which still remains his lowest figure ever in that category. Again, nearly all of the negative defensive perceptions people have about Shaq can be thrown out the window in '00, where he was a beast on both ends. Robert Parish, on the other hand, fouled at a very high rate during your selected season. He averaged a whopping 4.5 fouls per 36 minutes, over 55% more than Shaq did. It's Parish that should be very concerned with foul trouble, not Shaq.

- We will also be leaning on our SF’s (Worthy and Marion) a lot in this matchup because this is another HUGE advantage for us in the half court set. Worthy should destroy his defender (should be mostly matched up against Hudson and Peja neither of which can guard him, and since this is basically like a playoff series. That is the time when “James The Great” shinned the most (remember the year I selected, 88 Finals MVP while playing with the great Magic, Kareem, M.Cooper, and B.Scott). This will force my opponent to either double team (remember I have great shooters for James to pass to) or deal with easy dribble penetration which again would lead to more Shaq fouls (and less playing time). Marion will be matched up against Rodman (his starting PF who will play 24 min at SF). This is plain and simple and will completely force the Worm away from his strengths. Matix will be set in his comfort zone in the corner behind the 3 point arc. This was Matrix’s bread and butter shot and also will pull Rodman away from the basket, not allowing him to do damage on the boards. And if the Worm does not get out and defend Marion’s 3 pointers will do some damage, If Worm tries running out on him, Matrix has a fast enough first step that even a great defender like Rodman could not stop dribble penetration while running out to defend a shooter (setting up a paten Matrix floater or another SHAQ foul).

Keep in mind that Rodman (and Moncrief) will also see considerable time guarding your SFs, not just Hudson (who is a decent defender) and Peja. I can't see Worthy destroying Rodman in the half-court, where he'll be reliant on others to create for him (especially in an ATL, where he shouldn't get too many looks in the post) and also have to contend with Shaq at the basket. And Marion is not a significant offensive threat in an ATL. He can score some garbage points, but I disagree with your claim that we will need to defend him behind the 3-point arc. Marion averaged 1.2 threes per game, but on only 33.1%. Like Jordan, we will let him shoot all day from downtown if he wishes.

- I think my opponent will struggle in the PF matchup. Sheed off the bench will be logging the most minutes. And he will be forced to defend Pettit. Pettit who was 6’9 barefoot (which would be listed in todays measurements at 6’11”) was rough, tough and as physical as they come. (Very similar to a prime KG). This is also a matchup I like. Sheed was a solid defender, but Pettit should do very well here and I have a HUGE rebounding advantage here which will only lead to more running and fast breaks, were I am at my best.

Rasheed, in my opinion, is much better than a solid defender. Pettit is a fantastic offensive player and is going to do some damage, but Rasheed is surely good enough to prevent him from taking over the series. And Pettit's TRB% (calculated using TLAF's formula) was included in the rebounding figures I listed in my writeup. If I recall correctly, it was somewhere between 16% and 17%, which is very good, but not good enough to give your team the overall rebounding advantage.

- Nash will be Nash, running up and down the court making things happen and setting up his teammates. He will be guarded by a very similar player (and very good defender) in Walt Frazier. Frazier was a great defender, but Nash should be fine here offensively, which he always was. He is deadly from down town if Clyde slips off him or tries to help double someone. Clyde was know for being a great thieve, but he will be defending one of the most skilled ball handlers in the history of the NBA so Clyde’s stealing should be held at bay

I don't think it's as simple as, "Nash will be Nash." Will he be completely shut down? I wouldn't expect so, though, with Clyde, I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility. But I fully expect Nash to have a sub-par series (by his standards). Defenders of Frazier's level (and there's not many) will do that to you. Yes, Nash has great ball-handling, but, as I noted earlier, that doesn't preclude him from turning it over at a relatively high rate, which Frazier will take advantage of.

- I really do not believe I have to explain anything in the SG matchup at all. Squid was a great all time defender, but what will he do against MJ? I surely do not think MJ will have one of his classic 60 point games, but he will not be stopped. I do not think he will do anything less then he normally did, no matter who is guarding him. And should easily finish with the stat line he averaged this season

Again, I went over this matchup in depth in my writeup, but I'd just like to reiterate that MJ struggled majorly in the 1996 Finals against Gary Payton, who, quite possibly, might not be as great defensively as either of my starting backcourt members (though it's close)!

- Shaq is and was a BEAST. There is no other way to put it. When he gets set up in the deep post there is little anyone can do PERIOD and my matchup will be no different if that happens. My only goal is to try and limit “THE BIG CACTUS” the best I can and I have a few ideas that I think help me here. I already stated how I am going to try and work “SHAQ FU” on the other end of the court. I also already showed how by bringing “THE BIG ARISTOTAL” out from under the net on D, it would lead to extra fouls on him. Plus Worthy abusing his defender and getting to the rim at ease, will also lead to some extra Shaq fouls (the more the fouls pile up, the less minutes he can play). My main concern for my opponent is how effective will the foul troubled “SUPERMAN” be playing 40 minutes with the style of play I will be playing? Will the “DIESEL” have enough gas to be standing or moving while logging this many minutes? I know the year you selected is the only season of his stellar 20 year career that he did average 40 mpg, but could he do it against my UPTEMPO team? So “SHAQ’S BIG CHALLENGE” will be if he can stay on the court and breathing.
I will toss in Oakley for 5 minutes in this matchup simply to BANG with “DADDY” and beat him up even more then the fouls trouble and exhaustion would. Plus, this would be using his kryptonite, “THE HACK-A-SHAQ”, to take advantage of his stellar .524 FT %. Pettit’s minutes will be used against Shaq’s backups because neither of them are strong or tough enough to keep him off the boards.

I've already talked about Shaq's fouls and Worthy's impact offensively. Plus, as you noted, Shaq averaged 40 MPG in '00. Pace is critical in this series, and, as I outlined in my writeup, I believe my team will control the pace, limiting your ability to get out and run. I admire Oakley's playing style, and I know he's not afraid of Shaq, but that does not mean he can guard him (plus Oakley's 5 minutes at center are unlikely to swing the series one way or the other). As far as hack-a-Shaq, that is a simple way for a team to concede that they are at a severe disadvantage defensively. Even with Shaq's terrible FT%, each trip to the line for him to shoot 2 results in about 104.8 points per 100 possessions, which isn't good but isn't awful either. Combine that with the other effects of fouling (the bonus, foul trouble, slowing down the game, etc.), and we have no qualms with you resorting to hack-a-Shaq.

- I am pretty sure my opponent will try to have Frazier take advantage of Nash. And to be perfectly honest with you, I hope he does. If Clyde tries to be a one man show I am COOL with that. If he is trying to score, that means he isn’t getting Shaq the ball in the paint, or getting his other team mates the ball! So please Clyde try to outscore me by yourself instead of doing what made you great.

It's not that Clyde will try to be a one-man show; it's just that he will be able to exploit Nash defensively, blowing by him to create for others, or even looking for his own shot if he feels it's the right play. Shaq will still be our undisputed #1 option, and we trust Frazier to make the right play. He is an extremely savvy player with a great basketball IQ, and putting an incredibly weak defender on him can only help us, not hurt us.

- the SF spot I really do not see as being a problem for me in this matchup. The starter Hudson is only logging 11 minutes so I don’t think I need to explain much about a guy who will only be used the opening 5.5 minutes each half. (most likely when they are trying to set the tone with a breathing Shaq. Worm will be logging the most minutes and never was anything to worry about offensively. And both Worthy and Marion should be fine guarding the one dimensional Peja. (both of my defenders are Bigger, Quicker, Longer and Stronger so that should not be an issue. And since we really do not think we will be double much at all, he should never be left open to hurt us from down town. None of my opponents players at this position have good ball handling skills and both my players (especially Marion) were very good at getting steals, which is just another SF advantage that my squad has.

When Hudson or Peja is in at SF, I'm just asking them to spread the floor and hit some open shots. They won't be putting the ball on the floor very much. And remember, both will be excellent at this role; Hudson was known as one of the greatest shooters of his era, and Peja made 3.0 threes per game on 44.1% (while drawing a lot more defensive attention).

- Squid was not only a great defender, but he could also score. He will be defended by the GOAT 2 way guard in Michael Jordan. So even if Squid has success, it will not be all that often. Same goes for Hudson when he is at the SG spot. I see both of these guys performing below the averages they put up during the “peak” year they selected.

Yeah, MJ is a great defender who will probably keep my SGs below their averages. But they're still good enough players to make their presence felt offensively and will make Jordan work very hard, particularly when you consider how hard he will have to work offensively. Your superstar is going to have to expend a ton of energy on both ends.

BENCH PLAY

- This matchup is mostly dominated by the starters, but I think then those few minutes a game (most likely at the end of the 1st and 3rd quarter and to start the 2nd and 4th) should lead to a HUGE mismatch “special” lineup that will blow my opponent away.

AITN will for those few minutes be running an lineup of
D.Barros /L.Hudson / Peja / Ratliff /Daugherty
Which I will respond with a matchup of
Nash /A.Toney /Worthy /Marion /Pettit.

There is no way my opponent will be able to keep up with that lineup. This special unit will be running all over my opposition who will not be able to keep my unit off the glass and could not matchup at all with which ever player Peja (most likely Worthy) or softy Daugherty (Pettit) will be guarding and I really don’t think the week side shot blocker Ratliff could guard prime Matrix. And if Hudson tries to double (he really is the only decent man to man defender in this lineup) that would leave open my boy “THE BOSTON STRANGLER” who was deadly the few healthy years he had.

I will not play those 5 guys together unless it's an absolute blowout late in the game, so this point is irrelevant (plus you included 3 starters for your own team and only 1 for mine).

[Snakebites]

Would be really nice if we could get a move on with the rest of those writeups.

[BlackIce]

Give me a day I'm really busy right now.

[SamBone]

MY REBUTTAL
Sorry this may be long, but it is my only rebuttal, that I will do. Thanks in advance for taking the time to read and judge!

1. SHAQ

How will my opponent stop Shaq from dominating the series? This is a question that every team playing against Shaq will have a tough time answering, and SamBone's is no exception. Robert Parish is a good defender, but good isn't getting it done against 2000 Shaq.

Well as I said in my writeup, nobody can STOP prime Shaq. I pointed out many game plans that will limit Shaq from being the post up in the paint offensive BEAST or the protect the basket GIANT.
- tempo of the game will wear him down
- playing 40 min in that temp will give him a heart attack
- The Chiefs shooting will pull him away from under the basket
- Foul trouble because of my opponent’s inability to prevent penetration
- His difficulty in defending pick and pops usually leads to him picking up cheap fouls
- And his inability to hit FT’s allows us to HACK-A-SHAQ

2. MJ

Michael Jordan. Like Shaq, he's a dominating force. The difference is that we've got elite defenders to throw at him. We won't let him get used to our defense, having Moncrief as his main defender, but also putting Frazier and Rodman on him sometimes just for a change of pace, and even doubling and trapping him at times if the situation calls for it. While facing MJ is always a challenge, we feel that we're as well-equipped for it as possible, with 3 of the greatest defenders in history available to guard him and an absolute beast down low as the last line of defense.

Well I am not sure were to start here, but 1st I will start with the “main defender” Sidney Monfrief. Yes he was a great defender, and if Mj called him a “hound” I guess he was, but that may all be fact, but anoth fact is that Sid never shut MJ down. He may have been a “hound”, but it never stopped MJ from being the GOAT player that he was. Maybe it was that Squid was smaller, or just that MJ was that good.

Take a look at these Head to Head matchups in their careers

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... =moncrsi01

MJ in games against Squid: 34.4 ppg (.526 FG%), 6.6 reb, 6.3 asst, 2.4 steals, 1.3 blocks
(never was held under 25 points, and had games scoring 44 and 50 points)

Squid against MJ : 10.2 ppg, 2.1 reb, 3.1 asst, .8 steals, .1 blocks
(2 times scored 20 points (never higher), 8 of the 14 matchups was held to single digits, including games he was out scored 37-2, 44-6, and 50-4)

and for a small sample here are some clips from MJ’s 2nd career game were he played against “peak” Squid

http://tickethook.com/nba/milwaukee-buc ... ucks-1984/

you will see an nice rejection from MJ on Sid, Sid shoot an air ball because he is so tired from guarding MJ, Squid get dunked on my MJ, MJ blow by Sid for a nice dish of dunk to a BIG.

Yeah, MJ is a great defender who will probably keep my SGs below their averages. But they're still good enough players to make their presence felt offensively and will make Jordan work very hard, particularly when you consider how hard he will have to work offensively. Your superstar is going to have to expend a ton of energy on both ends.

I guess these stats show the Sid scored way below his averages against MJ

My opponent thinks switching Frazier on MJ will bother him more, but I don’t see it considering Frazier’s claim to fame was that he would have great success stripping smaller PG’s which is not what MJ is. I can’t see any different results here, then when a better defender in Moncrief is on him.

Now here is were I think my opponent will be making a BIG mistake. He thinks putting his starting PF (who will and used to play SF) on MJ will make a difference. First, I am not sure why he would put his 2nd best rebounder out on the perimeter away from the basket, but even doing that, it will kill his team. If Worm(SF) is on MJ, I guess whatever PG is playing would be on Nash, leaving eiher 6’3” Moncrief or 6’5” Lou Hudson on the 6’9” Worthy? SWEET! Simply iso Worthy on the low post, with Parish at the top of the key (brinkging Shaq away from the basket), put both MJ and Pettit (being guarded by Worm and Sheed) on the other side of the court. And have Nash feed James the ball and watch him DOMINATE while posting up his weaker, smaller defender. THIS WOULD BE A DREAM SITUATION FOR MY TEAM!

3. Nash

Similarly, Steve Nash, who is arguably my opponent's second most important offensive player (and, at very worst, third) will be well-defended. Like with MJ, Moncrief and Rodman can also defend Nash, but it'll usually be Walt Frazier who is assigned to him.

Here is were I start to get lost a little bit. Does my opponent have some sort of cloaning machine that he cal play with 4 Rodman’s at I time on defense? Man I wish he played 4 Rodman’s on offense! He has his starting PF (who plays most his minutes at SF) also guarding my SG and PG.

So, Rodman (SF) is on Nash, which I guess moves Frazier(PG) over to MJ, and again drops his SG (Moncrief or Hudson) on the much bigger and stronger Worthy.

I will continue to post up Worthy in this situation like I stated above! WOW this has really really improved my half court game.

Nash routinely ranks among the league leaders in turnovers and, in his selected 2006 season, had the 3rd highest TOV% (19.0) of all guards who averaged over 30 MPG. Now, these turnovers may often come due to Nash being an aggressive player who attempts passes others might not, but, the fact of the matter is, he's a turnover-prone player. As I mentioned, Frazier will use this to his advantage, pickpocketing Nash.

Here is a perfect example how stats can not tell the story. Yes Nash is among the tops in the league in TO’s, but he also leads the league in assists and a 3-1 assts to TO ratio is top 5 in the league and a great number for any PG to have. Playing in the system my team (and Nash’s real team play) turnovers from pushing up the court so fast happen. But don’t be fulled, Nash was (and still is) one of the best ball handlers in the game (rember last weeks AS game skills compition). Nash hardly ever gets stripped and almost ALL his TO’s (3.5 a game) come from pushing the ball up court and trying the tread the needle. And all of which result in inbounding plays (ball goes out of balance) not fast breaks the other way.

4. The SF rebuttal & “Single Worm Theory”

Keep in mind that Rodman (and Moncrief) will also see considerable time guarding your SFs, not just Hudson (who is a decent defender) and Peja. I can't see Worthy destroying Rodman in the half-court, where he'll be reliant on others to create for him (especially in an ATL, where he shouldn't get too many looks in the post).

Again here is what I am having trouble following your game plan. You only have 1 Dennis Rodman. He can not be everywhere at once!
- He is starting at PF logging 12 minutes all of which he would need to be on Pettit or major mismatches will occur.
- He will be logging 24 minutes at SF where you claim he will be
- * spending time guarding Nash (putting a smaller weaker guy on Worthy allowing him to post up)
- * spending time guarding MJ (again (putting a smaller weaker guy on Worthy allowing him to post up)
- * and also spending time stopping Worthy (playing 30 min) and Marion (playing 27 minutes)
How is this possible? You don’t account for the 30 minutes Sheed will be playing (some of which he will be on Pettit which Pettit should have a nice advantage against a solid defender) But Sheed can not cover 06’ Marion at all, even a younger aggressive Sheed.

And what will happen during the 13 minutes Peja will attempt to guard Worthy or Marion. Which he will not be able to stop at all!

And Marion is not a significant offensive threat in an ATL. He can score some garbage points, but I disagree with your claim that we will need to defend him behind the 3-point arc. Marion averaged 1.2 threes per game, but on only 33.1%. Like Jordan, we will let him shoot all day from downtown if he wishes.

Well you stress so much that it is what players do in the chosen year, then here you try to say things about Marion not being a ATL offensive threat.

Just to remind you, In Marion’s year (2006) the non threatening Matrix’s offensive numbers were 21.8 ppg (15th in NBA), was 6th in NBA in Offensive Rebounding, ranked 8th in NBA in Offensive rating, and was the 10th most Efficent scorer. He had a .525 FG% (11th in NBA), shot .331 from down town (96 makes) and .809 FT%

I would say that was a not all “garbage points” and that he will be a threat.

5. PF’s (basically Pettit vs Sheed)

I think my opponent will struggle in the PF matchup. Sheed off the bench will be logging the most minutes. And he will be forced to defend Pettit. Pettit who was 6’9 barefoot (which would be listed in todays measurements at 6’11”) was rough, tough and as physical as they come. (Very similar to a prime KG). This is also a matchup I like. Sheed was a solid defender, but Pettit should do very well here and I have a HUGE rebounding advantage here which will only lead to more running and fast breaks, were I am at my best.

Rasheed, in my opinion, is much better than a solid defender. Pettit is a fantastic offensive player and is going to do some damage, but Rasheed is surely good enough to prevent him from taking over the series. And Pettit's TRB% (calculated using TLAF's formula) was included in the rebounding figures I listed in my writeup. If I recall correctly, it was somewhere between 16% and 17%, which is very good, but not good enough to give your team the overall rebounding advantage.

Not sure how to take the stat formula that you calculated, but the fact is
- in Sheed’s season (2002) he averaged 8.2 rpg (ranked 23rd in NBA). 12.8 TRB%
- in Pettit’s season (1962) he averaged 18.7 rpg (ranked 4th in the NBA)

you try using a calculated % system which did not even exist when pettit played and all guestimations are simply that guestimations.

The FACT is Pettit doubled Sheed’s rebounding hence the HUGE rebounding advantage I stated!

CONCLUSION

I still think I will be able to outscore my opponent here.
My SF’s WILL dominate in this matchup.
Jordan will live up to his GOAT title.
The contrast in playing style will really put a lot of pressure on Shaq and the max work load would wear him out.
I will out rebound my opponent at the key positions.
Basically the team that can score the most will win this matchup.
That team is THE BONED SAMUELS.

[Snakebites]

Give me a day I'm really busy right now.

I will begin judging tonight based on the information that is in this thread at that time.

[BlackIce]

^^My writeup is...up. I'll probably add more to it and do a rebuttal, so judging tonight is fine by me.

[Snakebites]

^^My writeup is...up. I'll probably add more to it and do a rebuttal, so judging tonight is fine by me.

Good stuff.

Just waiting on Myth then. Hopefully by the end of today.

[SabasRevenge!]

I'll follow my rebuttal by some key points to victory for you to consider. Feel free to skim my rebuttal, I apologize for the length, but I really enjoy the research/writing aspect of this and I know some of you do as well. I have bolded/underlined key points. Enjoy!

REBUTTAL

Gary Payton minutes in the playoffs were never below 41mpg in his prime, so to look at his season stats (still routinely over 39/40) isn't telling the whole story. And he initiated the offense and was the only ballhandler. The only other real threat on offense was Schrempf a few years and Kemp. To say he can't handle the minutes is simply not correct.

Larry Bird never averaged under 40mpg in the POs in his 80s career.

Both absolutely true, but Bird is still guarding a faster, stronger, younger, dominant MVP who set an all-time record for playoff PER in '09 AND he's carrying the load on offense while being guarded by the guy who guarded him best. Bird will give it his all, but that's a lot to ask of any player and I believe fatigue will be a factor. It's just a nightmare situation for him. Being guarded by Cooper while checking James is the worst possible match up for Bird. Payton will have Havlicek up in his face all game while having to chase him around for 40 minutes. It's like chasing around a hyperactive, more athletic Reggie Miller. Hondo is probably the toughest endurance cover in the game. It's going to take a toll on Payton.

And he shot 41% on his 3s in the POs in the selected year. His game is abusing people in the post and shooting 3s when he has to at this point in his career. Because of that, a lot of his 3s were desperation attempts in the regular season, thus lowering his %.

This was after he shot under 25% on under one attempt per game during the regular season. Bird then shot 7-17 in 23 playoff games, that's .30 makes per game on .74 shots per game. That was his career high for attempts and makes in the playoffs following four consecutive regular seasons of shooting less than one attempt per year and making less than 30% of them. This is not to say that Larry Bird wasn't a great shooter, BUT he didn't shoot the three very often and didn't make them more than an average player. I'm not going to be sagging off of him and letting him shoot, but I also don't expect him to take more than an average of one three per game.

Regarding assist rates: it's very dependent on who else is on your team. Bird was on a team with McHale as the secondary scorer. A guy who got the ball and stopped it, worked in the post and got his baskets. When 25 of your teams points come from a guy like your assist RATE is going to drop. No one on this planet is going to easily concede the passing advantage to Lebron (or Bird, for that matter).

Alright, lets compare Bird and James in '84 and '09. 26.2% for Bird v. 38.0 for James.
Here are the top five AST% seasons all time for a forward:
1. '10 Lebron James (in progress)
2. '09 Lebron James
3. '07 Tracy McGrady
4. '08 Lebron James
5. '97 Grant Hill
Bird is a great passer, but James is on another level. He's become the top point forward of all time, practically the definition of the position.

Both players were MVPs in their chosen seasons, but James production was better even with Bird's team playing at a pace of 99.7 compared to 88.7 for James. James also had a higher offensive rating, a lower defensive rating, a PER that's 7.5 points higher, and a TS% advantage of .591 to .552. '09 James was simply more of an offensive force and a better defender than '84 Bird. Frankly, '85 and '86 Bird scare me more as #1 options.

Regarding Cooper guarding Bird best. you summed it up well yourself some people you just don't stop. I don't have BBR game logs for Bird's selected season, but there were game logs for the RS in Cooper's selected season: Bird shot over 70% in his games against LA. He's simply too short to handle Bird in the post. He'll play him hard and admirably, but ultimately fail. And Bird's got Lanier/Sabonis/Williams sagging off their men in the post to help out on D. You're overestimating his "fatigue".

Just as Bird won't stop James, Cooper won't stop Bird. However, Cooper's focus in this game is slowing Bird while Bird must try to contain James while carrying the offensive load. We're not going to stop Bird, but we will make him work very hard for every point with a fantastic man defender on him and James/Hondo/Unseld/Zo, all terrific help defenders, flanking him. Again, this is a nightmare match up for Bird on both sides of the floor.

Regarding the big men in general: if Zo starts to beat up Buck IN THE POST, then we'll consider switching. Zo's a scorer, Unseld isn't someone we're terribly worried about. He stepped it up in the POs on a team where he was a top option and still only scored 18 a game. If my opponent would like to feed Unseld and give him a chance to score, feel free. It's more time for the terribly fatigued Bird to rest.

Monroe scored 28ppg in the playoffs on the Bullets while Loughery scored 20. Unseld was not a top option, but a very efficient option. We'll take him scoring "only" 18ppg if you sleep on him. The great thing about Unseld is that he doesn't need to be fed to get his, so we'll just let him do his thing as an MVP who is perfectly suited to being a role player.

Lanier can more than handle Zo, who averaged those statistics after Hakeem and Ewing's declines and in the east where the next best center was...? Mutumbo I think?

I think "more than handle" is quite an overstatement. If he could more than handle Zo, why is he being hidden on Unseld while Buck Williams is being put on Zo for all of his minutes? Lanier is big/strong, but I simply can't see him staying out of foul trouble on Mourning, one of the strongest players to ever lace up his sneaks. Lets also keep in mind Zo's mid-range jumper and Hayes off the bench.

The second part of your argument is a huge reach. Mourning was dominant night in and night out on his way to being selected 1st Team All-NBA over a prime Shaq. He was a close 2nd in MVP voting to Karl Malone, finishing ahead of 3rd place Tim Duncan, and ran away with the DPOY award. You're simply not going to be able to diminish the fact that Mourning (2nd in MVP, DPOY) was in the conversation for best player in the NBA in '99.

Regarding Hawkins: I think you're underestimating his athletic tools and/or overestimating Unseld (even rookie Unseld)'s speed. Hawkins had a good midrange jumper and if given the chance, he can either sink that or get around Unseld. Defensively, he's going to be matched up against Schrempf and Unseld for the lion's share of his minutes. Schrempf, while a good scorer, isn't going to physically dominate Hawkins. Especially not the motivated Hawkins still trying to recover from his broken image of a scandal he wasn't even a part of.

He may have been extra motivated, but the fact remains that Hawkins dominated far inferior competition. The inaugural ABA's abysmal talent is well documented. His PER dropped by ten points the moment he stepped on an NBA court and he was a horrible man defender. There is just no comparison to Unseld winning MVP and ROY in the same year... except for Wilt Chamberlain. He was that good AND that important to his team. He's an all-time great. Hawkins is somewhat of an enigma and the myth may be greater than the actual player, but he was in the NBA during some typical prime years for a big man (27-29). He was an all-star and a good player, but he only made the playoffs two times during his entire NBA career. Unseld, with the same squad that was in Washington before he arrived, took his team from worst to first.

Lebron's defense: Lebron last season played terrific help defense and, for the lion's share of the game, average to slightly above average man-D. He accomplished this by guarding the worst wing player and allowing West to guard the best. Last year in the POs against Orlando he guarded Alson most of the series while Turkoglu and Lewis went off. And when he tried to play help D, he got burned By Alston who drained 3s when left open all series. I think we can all agree this iteration of Bowen and Carter are better shooters than Alston was and

It's also a huge reach to say that James defense will somehow be a liability when he was the runner up for DPOY to Dwight Howard. The story last year was his evolution into a defensive force. He shut guys like Joe Johnson and Brandon Roy down and guarded everyone from point guards to power forwards.

Lebron isn't going to "stop" a Carter level scorer...truth be told he likely won't even hurt his efficiency.

This statement in particular is a huge, huge assumption. James won't stop Carter, a multi-dimensional scorer and poor defender, but to suggest that he won't even slow him is just downright silly.

Speaking of Carter...my opponent spoke of him not being that efficient: I want to direct you guys to this page:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2001.html
That team you see is worse than Lebron's team was last year, which is hard to do. The fact that Carter got his TS to 55% on a team with no credible 4th option on a playoff team, much less 2nd, is a testament to how good and how unstoppable carter really was.

Carter was great on offense that year, but lets not forget that he wasn't even in the top ten for MVP voting and was the unquestioned number one on that team, taking over 22 shots per game. Carter has often been criticized for being selfish. He whined his way out of Toronto. How will he fit with Bird and Payton(a shoot-first PG), two guys who don't want to hear any BS? Will Carter defer to Bird and Payton or will they butt heads? Carter's just not a great option for an ATL because he's not good enough to be a first option and will have a hard time being anything else.

Quick note on the rebounding: if Lanier and Hawkins are away from the basket too, how do you see Alonzo getting even MORE boards? Leaving Lanier open? With the bigs pulled away from the basket it's going to be the guys inthe post (Bird, Lebron, Payton, Hondo) and the cutters (VC, occasionally Hawkins, Cooper, Unseld) closest to the basket. Frankly I envision both teams getting a fair amount of offensive rebounds, but both team's defensive rebounding being lower than expected, which will serve to slow down the fast breaks some as well.

Just how far from the basket will Lanier be? Mourning will still be in position to box his man out and crash the boards. I really don't see our defensive boards being very even with Unseld gobbling them over a tweener in Hawkins.