Code: Select all
Player 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Gilbert Arenas 17.73 19.27 20.81 22.35 -
Josh Howard 11.84t - - - -
Mike Miller - - - - -
Randy Foye 4.80q - - - -
Andray Blatche 3.26 3.52 - - -
Al Thornton 2.81 3.91q - - -
Nick Young 2.63 3.70q - - -
JaVale McGee 1.60 2.46t 3.49q - -
Quinton Ross 1.15p - - - -
James Singleton - - - - -
Min.Sal.Filler - 0.49 - - -
Min.Sal.Filler - 0.49 - - -
2010 #7 pick 2.80 3.01 3.22 4.09 5.48
2010 #30 pick 0.47 0.76 0.85 - -
2011 #37 pick 0.47 0.76 0.85 - -
2011 #10 pick - 2.31 2.48 2.65 3.37
Total 49.56 40.68 31.71 29.09 8.85
Salary Cap 53.00 54.00 - - -
Luxtax 64.22 65.44 - - - For 1st round pick salaries, I took the rookie scale from the CBA and added 20%, which is the maximum a team is allowed to pay (and is typically what teams actually pay). If we wanted to sign a free agent before signing a draft pick, we could actually assume a rookie payroll 20% less than the number shown, calculate our cap space, sign a free agent with the cap space, and then go ahead and pay the rookie the rookie pay scale + 20%.
If you want to run various scenarios, here's a tip: you need to assume a minimum roster of 11 players to get a cap number. If less than 11 are signed, you need to factor the cost of additional minimum salary players to get to 11. Next year, minimum salary players will cost $473,404. In 2011/12, they'll cost $490,180
Some observations:
If we accept the team option on Howard and sign Foye to the QO, that'll leave around $3M in cap space. Sign Singleton as well and we're pretty much out of cap space and won't be able to pull off any fantasy scenarios where we buy high picks.
If we let Howard, Miller and Foye walk, we'll have a salary figure of $33.9M next year, leaving us $19M or so in cap room.
Our salary situation in 2011/12 might not be as good as perceived. At issue is Thornton. He is a free agent that year. We'll probably offer the QO (shown) to maintain RFA rights, but if he plays as well as we hope, somebody will come along and offer more. It's a pretty good bet that he'll cost at least the MLE to retain. Furthermore, his cap hold will be substantially higher, about $8.4M. It'll really eat into our cap space until we finally ink him to a new deal. So if we cut Young, refrain from signing anybody else (Miller, Foye, Howard, Singleton) past 2011, resign Thornton to an MLE deal, keep Arenas, and draft about 10th in 2011, we will go into the 2011 offseason with a cap figure of $38.2M. That might be less than a max free agent unless the salary cap increases a bit more than expected. Basically, it's going to be real hard to acquire a max free agent in 2011 if Arenas is on the roster.
Given the above, I'm not sure if it's in our best interests to plan for a max free agent acquisition in 2011. I'd like to be several million below the cap so we can participate in OKC Plan trades, but I'm not sure there's much advantage to having a payroll in the $34M range when we can still have a ton of flexibility with a payroll around $44-48M. Rather than focusing on making a big splash at any one time, I think it would be best to simply remain patient and look for bargains.
I'd try and resign one of Howard or Miller this offseason to a reasonable deal (no more than $7M per year). I think I'd prefer Howard for his durability, defense and athleticism. He just fits better with the New Wizards. I'd also resign Singleton to something hopefully no more than $2M per year. Do those two deals and we'd remain about $11M below the cap. I'd keep my eyes open for a bargain backcourt player. Foye at $4M is a possibility. So is Lowry. Or perhaps we acquire a Hinrich/Salmons/MoPete type of player while getting a pick in return. The goal is to have a full roster with a good $5-7M in cap space to use at the Trade Deadline.
If we really want to make a splash in 2011, I think we need to trade/void/buyout Arenas.
