Cubs Expected To Finish Below .500

[IbreakNeckZ101]

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/20 ... w-500.html

Hard to disagree with that conclusion about cubs being below .500.. like i said before we should of wiped the slate clean with this club.. we are not going anywhere unless everyone is gone.

[Posey H8er]

Baseball is the hardest sport the predict. There are many factors that influence what can happen in a season. I wonder what Baseball Prospectus predicted for the 2008 Rays or 2009 Rockies. Even though it's a very good site many of its projections are flawed.

That being said, I really disagree. This is a team that was plagued with many injuries last season with Aramis and Soriano, and many other guys like Soto greatly underachieved. Obviously no one knows who will rebound but it would be highly unlikely that the Cubs see that much bad luck in 2010.

The outfield was really terrible last season. Soriano was terrible all around, Fukudome was solid at the plate but not in his natural position, and Bradley really underachieved and supposedly had a negative impact on the clubhouse. I'm excited this season for a few reasons. One, Marlon Byrd is very good in center and had an OPS over .800 for the past 3 seasons under Rudy. Also, Hendry signed Nady who can be a very good replacement for Soriano when he gets injured and also sub for Fuku in games vs left handed pitching.

Pitching is the key to 2010. Despite all the negatives the starting pitching was again really solid for another year. Rich Harden is a significant loss but the staff should be okay despite not having the sexy names from previous years. The bullpen is also questionable. Will Marmol bounce back? Will Guzman have another good year? Will Hendry trade for another arm?

This is not the same 2008 Cubs, but they could very well threaten the Cardinals for the division title in 2010. There aren't high expectations this year which is good for both players and fans alike.

[Howling Mad]

Ehh don't agree. We're bad, but not that bad.

If 2008 never existed, and I'm solely going off 2009, then maybe, but this team was day and night when you compare 08-09, and not much has changed. Players just under achieved last year.

[SportsWorld]

Last year Baseball Prospectus had us finishing in 1st place with like 95 wins so I wouldn't put stock in it. If Alfonso Soriano stays healthy and returns to 2007 or 2008 form, Geovany Soto returns to ROY form, Carlos Zambrano pitches better than last year, and the Cubs stay healthy, we'll finish in 1st place. Not to mention we don't have Kevin Gregg blowing games this year!

[Posey H8er]

Yeah this year it's solely up to Marmol to blow games.

[Grang33r]

Last year Baseball Prospectus had us finishing in 1st place with like 95 wins so I wouldn't put stock in it. If Alfonso Soriano stays healthy and returns to 2007 or 2008 form, Geovany Soto returns to ROY form, Carlos Zambrano pitches better than last year, and the Cubs stay healthy, we'll finish in 1st place. Not to mention we don't have Kevin Gregg blowing games this year!

Health is the most important factor. Although, i think odds are against us since Soriano, ARam and Lee are made out of glass, but if they can stay healthy for majority of the season, we will compete for a long time and finish above .500. I think Milwaukee will be a very good team, they are young and hungry and we all know about St. Louis, so if our guys start to drop, we could very well finish below .500.

[-Illmatic-]

We will win at least 82 games.

[LoveDaBoo]

Baseball is the hardest sport the predict. There are many factors that influence what can happen in a season. I wonder what Baseball Prospectus predicted for the 2008 Rays or 2009 Rockies. Even though it's a very good site many of its projections are flawed.

That being said, I really disagree. This is a team that was plagued with many injuries last season with Aramis and Soriano, and many other guys like Soto greatly underachieved. Obviously no one knows who will rebound but it would be highly unlikely that the Cubs see that much bad luck in 2010.

No, it's very likely, because the Cubs have a large number of aging, injury-prone players. It's far, far more likely the Cubs will finish below .500 than it is they'll win the division. I can't even believe how many kool-ade driven predictions I've seen, even after last season made it so abundantly clear that this is not a good team.

This is not the same 2008 Cubs, but they could very well threaten the Cardinals for the division title in 2010. There aren't high expectations this year which is good for both players and fans alike.

They'll threaten the Pirates.

[LoveDaBoo]

If Alfonso Soriano stays healthy and returns to 2007 or 2008 form

No chance of that. Soriano is terrible. I mean really, really bad. He cannot hit a breaking ball.. at all. No one will throw him a fastball, unless they're unable to get a breaking ball over the plate. No longer hitting leadoff, he can forget about stroking a get-me-over fastball to start the game; there goes half his meager homerun total right there. And he's a lock to miss 40 games on top of that. 70 is a good over-under for Soriano RBI.

[Ruben Douglas]

Such a tough call with this years Cubs.

Will they have as many injuries as last season?
Was it Bradley or was he just an excuse?
Will Soto pull it together?
Will Soriano hit better now he's got Rudy again?
Can Marmol finish games or pretend he's a wilder version of Gregg?

There are so many factors in such a long baseball season that you don't have in other sports. Like:

How will the rest of the division do this year? Specifically the Reds and Brewers?
If the Cubs are close, are the new owners willing to spend cash at the deadline?

So many factors. Predictions are just educated guesses...and everybody has guessed wrong in the past and will again in the future.

[Posey H8er]

Baseball is the hardest sport the predict. There are many factors that influence what can happen in a season. I wonder what Baseball Prospectus predicted for the 2008 Rays or 2009 Rockies. Even though it's a very good site many of its projections are flawed.

That being said, I really disagree. This is a team that was plagued with many injuries last season with Aramis and Soriano, and many other guys like Soto greatly underachieved. Obviously no one knows who will rebound but it would be highly unlikely that the Cubs see that much bad luck in 2010.

No, it's very likely, because the Cubs have a large number of aging, injury-prone players. It's far, far more likely the Cubs will finish below .500 than it is they'll win the division. I can't even believe how many kool-ade driven predictions I've seen, even after last season made it so abundantly clear that this is not a good team.

I don't see how my prediction was kool-aid driven. The odds that this team faces the number of injuries to their core of skilled players is unlikely. Even with those injuries they were only 7.5 games out. The Cubs scored nearly 200 less runs than they did in 2008. Their offense will be better this year. The question is how much better and if the pitching can hold up. They can match their record of last year, I don't think that's out of reach at all. Will they catch the Cardinals? I don't think so but it's not as if this Cubs team is terrible.

This is not the same 2008 Cubs, but they could very well threaten the Cardinals for the division title in 2010. There aren't high expectations this year which is good for both players and fans alike.

They'll threaten the Pirates.

No.

[SportsWorld]

The Cubs went 83-78 in a season from Hell last year filled with injuries, Kevin Gregg, and Aaron Miles. Last season sucked so bad and we still won 83 games.

[LoveDaBoo]

Baseball is the hardest sport the predict. There are many factors that influence what can happen in a season. I wonder what Baseball Prospectus predicted for the 2008 Rays or 2009 Rockies. Even though it's a very good site many of its projections are flawed.

That being said, I really disagree. This is a team that was plagued with many injuries last season with Aramis and Soriano, and many other guys like Soto greatly underachieved. Obviously no one knows who will rebound but it would be highly unlikely that the Cubs see that much bad luck in 2010.

No, it's very likely, because the Cubs have a large number of aging, injury-prone players. It's far, far more likely the Cubs will finish below .500 than it is they'll win the division. I can't even believe how many kool-ade driven predictions I've seen, even after last season made it so abundantly clear that this is not a good team.

I don't see how my prediction was kool-aid driven. The odds that this team faces the number of injuries to their core of skilled players is unlikely.

No, again, it's not unlikely. Soriano will get injured. Lee will get injured. Ramirez will get injured. You can just about take that to the bank, based on the last several years for those guys. This year, the Cubs arguably actually have a backup for Ramirez, but they still depend on him too much, considering the all-but-certainty that he'll miss extended time.

Even with those injuries they were only 7.5 games out. The Cubs scored nearly 200 less runs than they did in 2008. Their offense will be better this year.

Possibly, but it'll be much closer to last year than two years ago, because of Soriano alone.

The question is how much better and if the pitching can hold up. They can match their record of last year, I don't think that's out of reach at all. Will they catch the Cardinals? I don't think so but it's not as if this Cubs team is terrible.

Depends on how you define "terrible." They won't be the Nationals, true, but they won't be a ton better than .500, at best.

This is not the same 2008 Cubs, but they could very well threaten the Cardinals for the division title in 2010. There aren't high expectations this year which is good for both players and fans alike.

They'll threaten the Pirates.

No.

I'll be surprised if they're 5 games better than the Pirates. You'll see soon enough.

[Posey H8er]

I'm saying there will be an improvement upon last season. I'm not saying the Cubs will return to the 2008 level at all. If 2008 were rated a 10 and 2009 were a 5 in overall performance I'm saying this season looks to be a 7.

I know injuries will happen. I'm saying the chances the Cubs repeat with the same plethora of injuries is unlikely. Also, the depth of this offense is MUCH better. When Soriano or anyone else goes out, Nady, Tracy, and Colvin are all solid replacements and far superior ballplayers than Aaron Miles or Joey Gathright.

[GYBE]

No, again, it's not unlikely. Soriano will get injured. Lee will get injured. Ramirez will get injured. You can just about take that to the bank, based on the last several years for those guys.

What? Lee has averaged 149 games a year since his big wrist injury in 2006. Plus, it's a contract year for him. Obviously anyone can get injured but I fail to see any evidence of him being one of our bigger risks.

And I really don't care about Soriano getting injured...he's not good at baseball anymore. Aramis is by far the most important guy to keep healthy.

[SportsWorld]

If Soriano gets injured, we get to see Tyler Colvin in the outfield. That's not a bad thing.

[Posey H8er]

And if Colvin hits the crap out of the ball in the majors we can pretend we're paying instead of Soriano.

[LoveDaBoo]

No, again, it's not unlikely. Soriano will get injured. Lee will get injured. Ramirez will get injured. You can just about take that to the bank, based on the last several years for those guys.

What? Lee has averaged 149 games a year since his big wrist injury in 2006. Plus, it's a contract year for him. Obviously anyone can get injured but I fail to see any evidence of him being one of our bigger risks.

He's old. He'll get injured. And he'll more than likely perform well below his numbers from last year.

And I really don't care about Soriano getting injured...he's not good at baseball anymore.

Exactly. Which is why the Cubs will not be a good offensive team: their highest paid player, and only superstar-caliber offensive talent sucks donkey balls.

Aramis is by far the most important guy to keep healthy.

If he magically stayed healthy all season long, the offense would have a shot to be moderately good. But, of course, there's no chance of that, which means the offense will be mediocre at best.

[SportsWorld]

Looks like the projections were correct.

[Posey H8er]

Aside from the pitching which won't be this bad all season the Cubs were just terrible on defense. There were countless times were plays that could have been made weren't, and that's not including the errors. This was ugly as f**k but there are many games to play.