Al Jefferson for Cap Space "plus" Deals

[shrink]

I wanted to seperate these type of deals out from the general "Trade Al" thread because of the different component here.

After the trade deadline, several teams, like the Knicks, Nets, Heat, Timberwolves, Bulls, Thunder, Clippers, Kings placed their bets on turning their team around by acquiring one of the elite free agents that may be available in this summer's free agency. Some teams hope for two, and others, like DAL, have the tools to acquire one in a S&T. However, there are only a limited number of elite free agents, some of these teams are going to be disappointed, and so will their fans.

Meanwhile, MIN has a very productive player in Al Jefferson, who may find that his deal ($13/$14/$15 mil) is growing more than the NBA market. The economy pays for unique skills (top rebounding, generate low-post offense on his own, and always "size"), but as we see less and less money being paid out for non-stars, some front offices are going to wonder if Al's contract, that looked good last year, might not be over-priced right now.

To me, that means if we we wanted to trade Al (not saying we do), this may be one of our last chances to trade him for a profit. Most teams are very reluctant to spend big money these days, but a team that doesn't meet its free agency goals might turn to near-superstars in sign-and-trades. Would we do a trade where a major component we get back is raw cap space (to trade elsewhere)? For instance, what would you think of a trade like this:

NYK gives Gallinari (+$10 mil in cap space) for Al Jefferson?

OKC gives Harden + #22 (+$8 mil in cap space) for Al Jefferson?

etc?

[cpfsf]

NYK rejects
I like the OKC trade

[shrink]

I probably should have added that MIN then uses its $20-22 mil in cap space to trade for more nice pieces from teams anxious to shed salary, either paying to augment their free agent plans or simply chop salary down to a more managable level.

Do the Nets have pieces? OKC has plenty of combinations, particularly with no need to match up contractually, and perhaps a more difficult time getting an NBA free agent to come live in Oklahoma City. If Jefferson was a free agent in this class, he'd be talked about on the Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay tier, so he'd certainly be in demand economically. Do the other teams have offers that would fit here?

[Slum_Dillinger]

I probably should have added that MIN then uses its $20-22 mil in cap space to trade for more nice pieces from teams anxious to shed salary, either paying to augment their free agent plans or simply chop salary down to a more managable level.

Do the Nets have pieces? OKC has plenty of combinations, particularly with no need to match up contractually, and perhaps a more difficult time getting an NBA free agent to come live in Oklahoma City. If Jefferson was a free agent in this class, he'd be talked about on the Joe Johnson, Rudy Gay tier, so he'd certainly be in demand economically. Do the other teams have offers that would fit here?

I dont think the Nets have the pieces to make it happen. CDR is worth a really late 1st at best, Lee has been inconsistent since they traded for him, Harris doesnt fit here, Yi is an underachiever, Lopez is untouchable, I have minor interest in uber athlete T-Will, but they dont have much to add to him to make me pull the trigger.

I know OKC probably wouldnt do it, but a Jefferson + Gomes for Green + Harden + Late 1st is something I'd consider. Im slowly coming around to Dr.K's Prince + Det 1st idea depending on protections and if we cant make a better deal/signing in the offseason. Until Chicago is ready to talk Noah they can keep their Deng offer. Milwaukee? I dunno, I dont see a lot of potential matches out there.

[horaceworthy]

This summer will be a rough time to shop Al. He's coming off an injury, this is the worst season he's had since his 2nd year in the league, and between the draft and FA, the market will be about as flooded at PF/C as it's been. Kahn should probably wait until the dust settles to deal him (if he's intent on doing so), but if the opportunity to get another high lotto pick came up I could see him pouncing on it.

[Klomp]

NYK gives Gallinari (+$10 mil in cap space) for Al Jefferson?

NYK wouldn't trade that much cap space away this offseason.....I think the value is there otherwise though if salaries were more balanced....

[shangrila]

I like the OKC deal (although maybe a future pick instead). I still like Harden and he seems like the kind of unselfish, 2 way player the team has had some success using lately.

[the_bruce]

I'd do harden for jefferson with no pick in an instant if we land turner. Harden is impressive even when used as a 3,4,5th wheel. His defense seems good for a rookie.

Pek/(some C that falls to CHA pick)
love/varnado(uta)
turner
harden
flynn

[Biff Cooper]

Boy its tough to put a value on Jefferson right now. Is his contract negative, neutral, or positive compared to raw cap space? Tough to say. Unless he really finishes the season strong, we're probably going to have a tough time getting appropriate value out of him. I'm almost ashamed to throw these out there for how miserable some of these look, but here are some ideas:

If Bosh opts out, Toronto might be interested in Al as a replacement. Somebody rumored a while back that we were scouting Bargnani pretty heavily. He sure is owed a lot of money, and I'm not sure he's worth his contract, but maybe Bargs + DeRozan + 1st for Al. - doesn't save much cap space unless we leave DeRozan or the pick off or throw in Hollins or Gomes.

Chicago could do cap space + some combo of Asik, Johnson, Taj, #1, but they'd have to think they weren't going to bring in a big FA to do this.

If NJ has trouble signing a big FA, they'd probably be willing to take Al on for cap space + Yi + Dallas pick.

If Amare opts out, cap space + some combo of Clark, Lopez, Dragic, (Frye) may be a possibility

OKC, Memphis, Sacramento, GS, and maybe Wash & NY all have nice assets to make a trade of this type. I also like Harden.

[Klomp]

Another player/team to throw out there is GS, with Anthony Randolph. It would all depend on if we felt Randolph could play SF though.

[wolves_fan_82au]

well i would want to trade jefferson but in some deal for rudy/Oden

and than pick up Gay in free agency

[Steve_Holiday]

Did Al wreck another knee while I wasn't paying attention?

Packages featuring Harden? Bargnani? Taj Gibson? My good lord.

[Slum_Dillinger]

Did Al wreck another knee while I wasn't paying attention?

Packages featuring Harden? Bargnani? Taj Gibson? My good lord.

Being a realist. Al's value is at a low, and the market will soon be flooded with young PF's and C's, adding in his injury history and his rep as a poor passer and defender not to mention a market where people arent getting full value for their players and you arent getting young superstar's back for Big Al.

If you want to gamble that Al will get back to his form last year pre injury, and that he becomes a better passer and he steps his defensive effort up thats ok, but you take that chance that he is labeled Zbo 2.0 and he never buys into this system, not to mention a year older. Ill make that gamble, I think Al will come back, but these are the offers we will get for current Al.

[the_bruce]

Al's value plummeting since knee tendinitis...

If the team moves Al or Love it will be for a piece that fits. I doubt the Bargs/derozan or CHI deals get something like that.

Only teams I can see would be:
GSW: Randolph
OKC: Harden
IND: Pick
DET: Pick

Most logical is OKC. Al would be a great fit on that team, and a guy like Harden is desperately needed in MN. I doubt the capspace deal would be favorable to OKC as they have enough capspace to go after anyone they want, so why trade it. In the event we trade Al, we don't really need extra cap space to be honest. MN won't be signing anyone big and would have more than enough room to facilitate trades for other teams with capspace.

[IAmTheTruth]

It's Al for Randolph or bust, IMO. I don't like Harden so much. He'll always be undersized and somewhat unathletic. He's a 4th option at best. I would do Al for DET 1st if it's Top 5 or 6. An Al for Randolph swap is the best move, but Randolph does have to be able to play SF. I don't see why he can't. He's skinny as hell and super athletic. He just needs a Jumper and he's a natural at that spot.

[GopherIt!]

Only teams I can see would be:
GSW: Randolph
OKC: Harden
IND: Pick
DET: Pick

I would also probably include:

CHI: Noah or pick (depending on final record)
MIL: pick (depending on final record)
UT: pick (depending on NYK's final record)
& maybe NJN (if they drop out of the top 3, which is possible since they are the Nets. )

[the_bruce]

I would also probably include:

CHI: Noah or pick (depending on final record)
MIL: pick (depending on final record)
UT: pick (depending on NYK's final record)
& maybe NJN (if they drop out of the top 3, which is possible since they are the Nets. )

poor nets

[shrink]

1. I should point out that teams like GSW don't have the cap space. I understand Anthony Randolph > Harden, but a true comparison would be AR vs Harden + $8.7 mil in additional cap space. The key would be to use the cap space in trade to pick up many more valuable goodies.

2. If you'd like a great listing of who has cap space next year, wyn's is a great place to start by listing the committed 2010-11 salaries and the number of contracts. This won't include cap holds but should give you a good head start knowing who can make a non-matching deal.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... zRug&gid=1

The leaders are:

NYK, NJN, MIA, WAS, SAC, CHI, LAC, OKC, MIN, CLE, MEM, ATL

3. I think we're walking a tight rope on Jefferson's trade value right now. His value is probably lower than usual because of injury, but as he gets better, it will increase. However, as more teams see the money situation after free agency fewer and fewer teams will be willing to spend $13 mil (+ incentives) on the guy. I think his value will peak during free agency, when a few teams have money to spend, and missed out on the free agent they wanted. If we miss that window, we better have done so because we want to keep Jefferson at that price tag.

4. I agree with bruce that OKC is the most likely. Jefferson is a perfect fit on that team, providing exactly the low post skills that they lack, and at an age that fits the team. If there is any truth that MIN will have trouble drawing free agents, it must be far worse for a cowtown like OKC. OKC is a solid play-off team right now, so they won't be getting big name help in the lottery any more, so I think they'd be willing to send us cap space plus incentive to make another leap forward.

[Devilzsidewalk]

However, there are only a limited number of elite free agents, some of these teams are going to be disappointed, and so will their fans.

I think you answered your own question why this trade doesn't add up, its already shaping up to be a summer of MN having more cap space than they can wisely spend, now we're trading our best player, (or 2nd best to some), for more cap space to spend on what exactly, Shaq? MN got lucky getting KG. They got lucky again getting a young 20/10 player for him in trade. They need to be patient and try to build their poker hand and stop trading good cards that can be pieces to a good hand because they're aiming to get some sort of Jack of Green Clovers that doesn't exist

[shrink]

However, there are only a limited number of elite free agents, some of these teams are going to be disappointed, and so will their fans.

I think you answered your own question why this trade doesn't add up, its already shaping up to be a summer of MN having more cap space than they can wisely spend, now we're trading our best player, (or 2nd best to some), for more cap space to spend on what exactly, Shaq? MN got lucky getting KG. They got lucky again getting a young 20/10 player for him in trade. They need to be patient and try to build their poker hand and stop trading good cards that can be pieces to a good hand because they're aiming to get some sort of Jack of Green Clovers that doesn't exist

I should have been more clear. Its a question of different needs.

If you're NYK, and you get one free agent to come, you're screwed. NYK fans demand success, and they won't sit through another bad season (especially ones without draft picks), on another medicore team without continual national media whining. You have cap space, but you need talent that can do something, right now. For them, overpaying a little for Al Jefferson is a good way to use their cap space.

If you're MIN, and you can't get a free agent to come, you're not screwed. MIN knows its a rebuilding team and has made several moves to develop its youth. Raw cap space can be used to add more lottery pieces or elite prospects, and strengthen the hand for one more year. Teams like IND or NOH are losing money at a phenomenal rate, and will be over the lux next season if they can't trade assets to fix their financial problems. Free agent contenders may still be seeking cap space, or a third team to absorb salary to make a sign-and-trade. This is the patience approach as well.