Andray Blatche - Resurgence Thread ( Merged )

[miller31time]

At this rate, we're not going to worry about Cousins and his emotional problems because he'll be off the board by the 10th pick....which we'll get at this rate.

[dlts20]

Ive been thinking the same thing. Send Blatche & McGee to Grover with Arenas this summer. I also think Gil will be explosive next year since we all know that in all of pro sports, you dont start looking the same after a bad knee injury until your 2nd year. Let them all workout together and build a great bond. At the same time they can scrimmage and be on the same team alot even against the greats like Lebron. Most of all, I think it would really boost Dray to be scrimmaging against the top guys in the league and doing well. He would have no more worries when the season starts and would think that he is on that same exact level. Let Grover also put 15 pounds on McGee. It would be crazy if they came back like that next year

[drivewayball]

This question to an informed Wiz fan: A couple days before the deadline, I read that the Wiz had offered Blatche in a trade to Utah for Boozer's expiring contract. Do you know anything about what the details of this proposal were? The note said that the Jazz had quickly spurned the offer (perhaps to their discredit). Thanks for the help.

[Saqs]

I think its safe to say that had that deal happened and Dray go to Utah and avg 25/10 over his last 4 we'd have peeps suiciding up in here...

Not sure if it was ever more than a rumor.

[drivewayball]

It was just a report of an offer that Utah dismissed. Do you know what other player(s) from the Wiz were included?

Nevermind, I found it. The Wiz wanted to give up James and Blatche for Boozer. Evidently, the Wiz wanted to clear Blatche's salary off the books. Seems ironic all the sudden.

[cavsfan_osiris]

I think its safe to say that had that deal happened and Dray go to Utah and avg 25/10 over his last 4 we'd have peeps suiciding up in here...

Not sure if it was ever more than a rumor.

no doubt. We've seen this potential sporadically, but the big question is can he find some type of consistency?

[keynote]

Yeah, I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. I'd be ecstatic to hear that Blatche and McGee had linked up with Grover.

But isn't Grover difficult to get? I mean, I assume his facility only has but so much capacity. We may be inflating his reputation a bit (it's not as if we know the entire "trainers to the stars" marketplace that well), but you rarely hear about him working with role players and rookies. I could be wrong, though.

[pancakes3]

i think we're overhyping grover a bit. motivation is probably his biggest strength. from a strictly kinesiological standpoint, there's no reason why Blatche, McGee, and Singleton can't stay in the mid-atlantic and get better.

[montestewart]

i think we're overhyping grover a bit. motivation is probably his biggest strength. from a strictly kinesiological standpoint, there's no reason why Blatche, McGee, and Singleton can't stay in the mid-atlantic and get better.

I don't know enough about Singleton, but Blatche and McGee might just need a motivator, be it Grover or someone else.

[hands11]

Against the Griz 41 10-19 FG 4-5 FT 8 rebounds 5 assists 1 steal 24 pts but a neg - 6

Funny stat is everyone was negative except.

McGee + 4
NY +4
Foye +2

[nate33]

Blatche's pace-adjusted per-36 stats over the past 10 games:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
blatche,andray  23.3  9.0  2.2  1.7  1.2  2.1 .555 .596 26.3

Actual minutes averaged: 28.5

[GhostsOfGil]

Blatche's pace-adjusted per-36 stats over the past 10 games:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
blatche,andray  23.3  9.0  2.2  1.7  1.2  2.1 .555 .596 26.3

Actual minutes averaged: 28.5

wowza

[dandridge 10]

Against the Griz 41 10-19 FG 4-5 FT 8 rebounds 5 assists 1 steal 24 pts but a neg - 6

Funny stat is everyone was negative except.

McGee + 4
NY +4
Foye +2

This is why I think +/- means nothing. There are a lot of things it does not take into account...who is playing on opposing team, whether minutes occurred during garbage time, etc.

[Ed Wood]

+/- Over the course of a single game certainly doesn't mean a whole lot in and of itself. Yeah it's possible that a particular player kicked ass during that game and so will have a nice looking +/- but a player can also wander over to the scorer's table and give Tommy Heinsohn the crazy eye for five minutes while his team goes on a hot streak and starts hitting threes and end with just as strong a +/-. But I can't think of an evaluative statistic that doesn't have problems with sample sizes as small as a game. Over the course of a season +/- becomes infinitely more useful. Of course anyone who cites single game +/- as evidence in and of itself isn't making much of an argument.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Against the Griz 41 10-19 FG 4-5 FT 8 rebounds 5 assists 1 steal 24 pts but a neg - 6

Funny stat is everyone was negative except.

McGee + 4
NY +4
Foye +2

This is why I think +/- means nothing. There are a lot of things it does not take into account...who is playing on opposing team, whether minutes occurred during garbage time, etc.

As Ed Wood points out, +/- means something over the long haul, but -- like every other basketball stat -- needs to be viewed in the context of lots of other good information. Some advanced stat goobers have created adjusted +/- systems, which attempt to account for all the stuff you mention plus oodles of other factors. I don't fully trust those systems for several reasons -- they're "black box" stats (meaning that none of the APM guys reveal exactly how they do what they do), and the information APMers reveal about their methods suggest an array of assumptions that may or may not be valid (they haven't been tested).

For example, what's garbage time? How do you determine the quality of an opponent? A teammate? Is it true that what happens in the last 4 minutes of a game is "more important" than what happens in the first 4 minutes? And can you quantify it?

Also, there isn't much explanatory power in +/- (raw) or APM. Player X has an APM of +6.3 per 100 possessions. Great -- why? The "why" is what's critical.

It's still useful information, but it's not the Holy Grail of basketball stats.

That said, several NBA teams are making use of APM. Dallas has been using it for awhile -- although they terminated their relationship with Wayne Winston at the start of the season. Cleveland continues to employ Dan Rosenbaum and David Lewin, who are APM guys. Houston almost certainly has someone doing APM for them.

[dandridge 10]

Thanks for the clarification Kev and Ed. I was talking more from an individual game standpoint since that is how Hands raised the question. However, I guess it could have some useful information if collected over time and with the variables you discussed.

I just think it is funny how some people on this board make comments on how a particular player should have received less or more minutes during a game based on + or - during the particular game. Case in point is the last game against Memphis. I don't care if McGee had a +4 or whatever that game...all you had to do is watch the game to know that he was killing the Wizards.

[dobrojim]

Blatche's pace-adjusted per-36 stats over the past 10 games:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
blatche,andray  23.3  9.0  2.2  1.7  1.2  2.1 .555 .596 26.3

Actual minutes averaged: 28.5

Antawn who?

Just for grins, lets do a side x side with AJ for the rest of the year
while remembering AJ is getting > $10M/yr and 7DD is getting ? $3 IIRC.
5 year deal for $15M?

[JonathanJoseph]

Blatche's pace-adjusted per-36 stats over the past 10 games:

Code: Select all

Player           PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
blatche,andray  23.3  9.0  2.2  1.7  1.2  2.1 .555 .596 26.3

Actual minutes averaged: 28.5

Antawn who?

Just for grins, lets do a side x side with AJ for the rest of the year
while remembering AJ is getting > $10M/yr and 7DD is getting ? $3 IIRC.
5 year deal for $15M?

And a lotta folks who were ready to take pitchforks to Grunfeld's doorstep need to acknowledge that Blatche's contract is the best in the NBA by far.

What's fascinating to me is how "raw" Blatche still is. The 8 turnovers are a clear indicator that he's not yet comfortable in the role of "go-to-guy". When Blatche has 5-7 more shots/passes where he isn't throwing the ball away what will his stats look like?

I'm seeing Blatche average a very efficient 25/11/3/2 and thinking that there is UPSIDE left when he gets better against the double team and his shot selection improves.

A real bright spot in this otherwise miserable season.

Blatche, Gil, McGee (with a lot of upside), Thornton and more cap room than everyone but the Nets and Knicks. Well done, Ernie Grunfeld.

[jimij]

Overall Blatche had a very nice game against the Knicks but you can tell he's not used to playing those types of minutes since he was gassed late in the 4th and in OT. And it's not just the minutes, its the way he's being used that's new to him. He spends so much time fighting in the post as the team continually gives him the ball there now - he's having to expend much more energy in his minutes now that he's a focal point of the offense.

Between that and the fact that for the first time in his career he's seeing constant double teams he's certainly turning it over more, but I can live with that for now. As JonJoseph says, he's still got a lot of upside as he figures how to deal with all of this.

[Ruzious]

Thanks for the clarification Kev and Ed. I was talking more from an individual game standpoint since that is how Hands raised the question. However, I guess it could have some useful information if collected over time and with the variables you discussed.

I just think it is funny how some people on this board make comments on how a particular player should have received less or more minutes during a game based on + or - during the particular game. Case in point is the last game against Memphis. I don't care if McGee had a +4 or whatever that game...all you had to do is watch the game to know that he was killing the Wizards.

So, if you see that a player on the Wiz has given up 6 straight easy baskets against a non-star quality player - but the rest of the team played well while he was in, you would laugh at someone saying he's hurting the team?