2010 Big Board discussion

[erudite23]

Now that we're winding down the season, and we know where the pick will land (somewhere between 4th and 7th, barring a major upset in the lottery) I'm going to start keeping a running update on what the bigboard for the Jazz SHOULD look like, with what we know of the prospects combined with what we know of the Jazz and the things we know they value in a prospective player.

Here's my first Big Board, as of March 1st. I will be updating this periodically with news about top prospects and other relevant draft content, and will be moving names up and down based on future developments.

Without further ado, here is the way I see our team stacking their board. I will only be rating the top 10 prospects.

1. Evan Turner

The model Jazz prospect. Great attitude, selfless, great passer, team player, all-around game. You name it. A lock to be a top 10 player in the NBA and will compete with LeBron to lead wings in rebounding.

2. John Wall

Will not be a Jazz man, no matter what happens. If the Jazz are in position to draft him, they will find a way to extract his value from another team. Simply put, he is more valuable to other franchises than he is to us.

3. Derrick Favors

Would have been #1 on this list two months ago. Great physical specimen, broad shoulders, big frame that will be able to fill out and add weight. Explosive leaper who has a knack for finishing around the hoop. Production has not met talent so far.

4. Cole Aldrich

I can see the coming en mass with this ranking. The opposite of Wall here. We value him higher than other teams, and as such would likely get him in a trade down scenario. I do not believe we would select him 4th, but I do believe he has the chance to transform our team into a championship caliber squad. Will post 18.0+ TRR. Is going to be a top 10 shotblocker, and will be good enough offensively that other teams will have to honor him. Sounds like exactly what this team needs, and if we have to pass up on another player that has more potential--but also a higher risk of busting--to get him, I think we do it. A toss up between he and #5 on this list.

5. Wesley Johnson

Great shooter. Imo, will be similar to Peja Stojakovic as a player, but with more athleticism and finishing and slightly more rebounding and defense and not as good passing, intangibles and general ball skills. Has a chance to be an All-Star, but only in a system that does not demand he be the #1 guy. Don't think he could carry a team, but I think he is the perfect #2 scorer.

6. DeMarcus Cousins

Similar to John Wall in that there is a 0% chance he plays for the Jazz. Too much risk and not enough of the intangible elements that make a player a contributor to a winning equation. On skillset and game, though, is probably the 2nd best prospect and would be a great fit for what we do with his tenacious rebounding and his inside scoring abilities. Just can't trust him.

7. Greg Monroe

Along with Evan Turner, probably the most prototypical Jazz player in the draft. Highly skilled big man with an unorthodox game. Great passer out of the high post. Skilled off the dribble and possesses a good mid range game as well. Unselfish to a fault. Looks to fit into team concept. Soft. Not a particularly good defender. Rumors are already starting to float about the Jazz loving him, with Ford reporting a month ago that he will "not get past the Jazz at around #8 or #9."

8. Al-Farouq Aminu

Similar to Josh Smith, with less athleticism and a much better mental outlook/attitude. Should be a phenomenal defender when he reaches his prime. Problem here is that his best position will be as a face up 4, and the Jazz already have AK--who has a similar skill set--as well as Boozer (maybe), Millsap (maybe) and Okur who have similar attributes offensively. While he is the type of player the Jazz would like to have and who they would value, he is a bad fit for the roster.

9. Hassan Whiteside

A big time sleeper who might be poised to shoot up draft boards in the coming months. Only a freshman, but has quietly been garnering more attention from scouts. Averages 5.5 bpg. Has what appear to be elite level physical tools, at roughly 7 feet, with a massive wingspan, great agility and open court speed. A little on the light side and raw in his footwork and overall repertoire, but shows flashes of dominant ability. Projected as #1 pick in the 2011 by some for a few months, but talk of him coming out this year has begun to mount.

10. Ed Davis

Along with Willie Warren, one of the biggest disappointments of the college season. Appears to be unable to add weight, with his ultra thin frame. No apparent low post repertoire. Good defender and very good rebounder, who has a chance to be almost KG-like in that aspect of the game, imo, but doesn't have the offensive chops to be a top big man. His game is that of a 5, but its unlikely he has the bulk to play the position full time. If he can answer his injury questions and impress in workouts, has a chance to move up to 6th or 7th on this list.

[DelaneyRudd]

Your #1 isn't just wrong, it's dead wrong.

[erudite23]

orly? Apparently you haven't been watching the same team as me. If the Jazz draft John Wall, I will literally eat my own shoe and post it on YouTube. While I think that Wall has the most upside, there's just no way the Jazz take a player like him. He has high-maintenance written all over him, plays the same position as our franchise cornerstone, and doesn't play the way the Jazz expect their players to play.

I know you don't like it, but there's no doubt its true. I wouldn't be terribly shocked to find out that he is as low as 4th or 5th on their draft board.

Meanwhile, Turner is as amazing all around prospect at a position of need who displays all the attributes of team-first play that Wall doesn't. On pure talent, I barely put Wall above Turner. Factor in the Jazz' sensibilities and there is little doubt that Turner is #1 right now.

Like it or not.

[DelaneyRudd]

Wall is a guaranteed superstar and no team will not draft him. Even the Hornets, and they have far less use for him than the Jazz. Wall would fit perfectly into the 2 PG set that the Jazz like. He has the athleticism of a 2 guard and the court vision that rivals any player on Earth.

[erudite23]

Similar things were said in 2005 about Chris Paul. And we took Deron Williams. The Jazz look at things differently than most of the league.

[StocktonShorts]

Remember when the Blazers passed on that One Guy because they already had Clyde Drexler at his position?

But the Jazz won't likely have to worry about the Wall dilemma. I've been reading up on Cousins, and I'd put him much higher on the board than you have him. I think some of his "character" issues have been blown out of proportion.

I need to watch some more college hoops (even though I detest it) to scout these guys. From the brief bits I've seen of Aldrich he looks horrible -- even if all you're expecting him to do is rebound and block/alter shots.

[outerspacefella]

IMHO if the Jazz have a chance at Wall they will go at him. Williams is the franchise player indeed, but you never know... recently he disliked a trade and remembered the Jazz world some little thing about his contract... Anyway, Williams/Wall would be really amazing to watch.
That said, I agree with all your comments on Evans.
Unfortunately, I don't think the Jazz can get any of them unless lottery go big time Jazz way.
Wall, Turner, Favors will most certainly end up being the top 3 picks.

[DelaneyRudd]

If this was Derick Rose and not John Wall the Jazz would play it cute and maybe do their own thing. But Wall is a much stronger prospect.

[GP]

IF the jazz get the opportunity to draft Wall, they will. Always draft the best player available and Wall is considered the best player to come along in a while. This doesn't mean that they will keep him long term, you can always swing a trade later, but the jazz will draft Wall if he's available.

[carrottop12]

I have to agree with everyone about Wall. He really is a can't miss prospect, and I don't see any way the Jazz don't take him unless they are getting the #2 pick and some other very good player in return. I think if you get the #1 pick and you pass on the obvious choice especially when the rest of the guys aren't can't miss, you have a chance to go down in history as the guy who passed up on Wall.

Evan Turner is the obvious number two and I think he will be a very very good player.

I agree with Favors at 3. Everyone has him dropping because of his low numbers and Cousins high numbers. Personally I see Favors as a guy playing on a team that has a senior that is NBA material, playing the same position, with poor guard play around him. He has the potential to be the best player in the draft and I think he'll definitely be an All-Star PF in the league.

From there it is hard to say. I have no idea why everyone is down on Aldrich. Yes he is a big white kid, but he's a defensive stud and not just as a shot blocker. If you want to see why scouts love him watch this video. He's a very good player.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=490543 ... oryid=null

Whitesdale is intriguing, he's huge, runs the floor well and is a hell of a shot blocker. Aminu seems like a really good kid, Wes Johnson seems like he has some real skills, and who knows about that Donatas kid. I really like Monroe's game too. Great intangibles, kind of a Tim Duncan lite. He could be a great player in the league.

My guess is the Jazz board looks like this.

Wall
Turner
Favors
Whitesdale
Cousins
Monroe
Aldrich
Aminu
Johnson

Excited for the tournament so I get too see some of these players a little more.

[Neon Black]

Obviously Wall is going to be good. At the same time, I wonder if he's over-hyped. Evan Turner really is a complete player and I would not be disappointed to have him around. I'd take Wall or Turner before any big man in the draft. The transition of big forwards and centers into the NBA is always so unpredictable. There are always so many busts while Paul Millsap and Dejuan Blair get picked in second rounds.

[erudite23]

A couple things seem relevant to me here:

1) Do the Jazz care? Meaning, do they care about going down as the team that passed on John Wall? The answer to me is, pretty clearly, hell no. They didn't care about being the team that passed on Chris Paul, they didn't care about being the team that sold Dominique Wilkins to Atlanta, and they won't care about being the team that passed on John Wall.

For the record, I do not think they SHOULD pass on Wall, though I can see the rationale. I think Wall is the best bet in the draft, and will be a DOMINANT force. However, I fully expect Turner to become a superstar in his own right, and given the fact that he is a better fit for the team position and skill-set wise, as well as being more of the Jazz type of guy (humble, unselfish, team-oriented, fundamentally sound, etc) I can see how it would be the case.

2) The Jazz aren't dumbies. They know very well how highly regarded John Wall is, and if they were put into the position of making that decision, they would create the requisite amount of doubt in people's minds to make them believe that they are fully willing to draft him if a good enough offer isn't presented. Since NJ, Minnesota, GS and Indiana (the 4 most likely teams to end up 2nd) all need a PG, I can see how easy it would be to move from 1 to 2 and get a boat load of picks and/young pieces to bolster the roster i the process.

And, ultimately, I do expect that--if all possible scenarios were played out 1,000,000 times--that Turner's average performance would be equal to Wall's, with Wall's upside being higher but Turner's reliability and safeness as an investment evening it out.


It seems to me that anyone making the argument for taking Wall is living in denial. Look at our team. Look at the decisions they make, the traits and abilities they value in a player and you should see that my point is not really up for debate. They avoid anything that remotely smacks of selfishness, self-promotion, self-centeredness, etc etc. They took Deron Williams over Chris Paul because Paul had some minor personality issues, was a bit of a punk according to several different reports, and because Deron would run the team as a team and not have to be the center of everything. There was little to indicate that Deron had Paul beat in any way from a production or talent standpoint. Really, for it to be as close as it is right now is a minor miracle, considering the huge gap between the two in college.

But its the Jazz value system.

All told, though, even with the concerns that Wall shows, I think the Jazz would take him if there wasn't a good alternative there. Given that Evan Turner is an amazing prospect in his own right who has posted unheard of numbers despite BREAKING HIS BACK mid-season (causing a dip in production, btw) I don't think its a stretch to believe that there is a reasonable chance of him becoming the better player. He certainly is far less likely to (com)bust.

Anyway, I agree that Wall is the better prospect, though the margin is relatively small. I just don't think you people are being honest with yourselves in relation to the track record your team has. The Jazz do things differently. Like it or not, that's the way it is. If they get the #1, I'm almost entirely positive that they would find a way to maneuver downwards.

That said, I think we can all agree that we hope we get the chance to find out.

[carrottop12]

I understand thinking the Jazz would be more willing to take Turner thinking he fits the system better, but honestly I think when draft time comes nobody passes on Wall. He's too good, and considering at 6'4 he and Deron can play both wing positions, all of a sudden the Jazz have the best back court in the league bar none. Plus he gives the Jazz that championship swagger you need to win in the playoffs.

I love Turner, and if the Jazz landed him I'd be absurdly happy, but I just don't think there is anyone who can legitimately take Turner over Wall unless Turner takes Ohio State to a championship this year.

And not to get nit picky, but if you want to talk duplicates in a system, 6'7 lanky do it All-Small forwards who can't shoot the three...

I'm just saying.

[MeestR]

cool. thanks for the thread. maybe a bit self indulgent, but do i care? i will still check this thread regularly for updates as i value these opinions. and recognize that they are (no offense) just opinions of some random realgm poster. i dont care much for the college game, so i don't get much more than what sportscenter has to offer me. this helps me get excited. thanks again.

[erudite23]

Lol..."lanky do it all SF who can't hit the 3?" AK is 6'9". Turner isn't lanky, but built and will be a lot more muscular in 3 or 4 years when he's filled out. Turner is more of a guard than a forward, and his shot isn't broken or messed up like AK's. He's got a great jumper, he just doesn't have the requisite range on it right now. Not a big deal, really.


Also, I do believe that if the Jazz were forced to draft #1, they would draft John Wall. I just don't think they would keep him. They'd find a trade partner, imo.

[nyjazz]

I think some are missing the point here. Of course the Jazz will not pass on Wall if everybody else has him as the top prospect, but the Jazz may very well trade the top pick if someone is willing to pay enough. It is what the Jazz could get for trading down that is interesting here. If the Nets get the 2nd pick, I could see them throw in anybody not named Lopez in the deal to trade up. Maybe we could get Kris Humphries (ok, that was a not so funny attempt at a joke). The Jazz has a lot of flexible assets to swing a trade so it could be interesting.

Who do you want from the Timberwolves, the Warriors, Kings or Pacers (if they own their picks then)?

[Ming Kong!]

While I don't know a whole lot about the college prospects, all I hear is that Wall is the unanimous #1 pick, so the Jazz HAVE to either get him with the #1 pick, or trade, as easy as that. I would prefer to first pick Wall, then exercise him, maybe for a proven super talent, if he has 5-10 years left, or preferably for the guy we're looking for, and in return a quality vet starter, or 6th man of year status, with lots of years left in the tank. The Jazz would be rediculous though to get someone else, when the Jazz can force the hand of another team to trade valuables PLUS the guy the Jazz want, whether it's Turner, Favors, or whoever it may be. Regardless, the Jazz are going to have a damn nice summer. Thanks NYK!

[Ming Kong!]

I think some are missing the point here. Of course the Jazz will not pass on Wall if everybody else has him as the top prospect, but the Jazz may very well trade the top pick if someone is willing to pay enough. It is what the Jazz could get for trading down that is interesting here. If the Nets get the 2nd pick, I could see them throw in anybody not named Lopez in the deal to trade up. Maybe we could get Kris Humphries (ok, that was a not so funny attempt at a joke). The Jazz has a lot of flexible assets to swing a trade so it could be interesting.

Who do you want from the Timberwolves, the Warriors, Kings or Pacers (if they own their picks then)?

Why would we deal Wall for anybody on the roster not named Lopez?

The only scenarios I could see the Jazz trading with those teams are..

Nets: Lopez
Wolves: Love or Jefferson + pick
Warriors: Biedrins + top 3 pick
Kings: Evans
Pacers: Granger

With either of those the Jazz may be looking to swap picks, and maybe throw one of their men too, to match salaries, make room, what have you. Either way, the Jazz would not settle 2nd or 3rd best on most of these teams, cause teams are willing to part with their stars for a guy like Wall.

[Racer X]

If you read a lot of draft stuff, a TON of teams are souring on John Wall. Apparently has had attitude problems at Kentucky. As Turner continues to dominate despite a broken back, I think a lot of teams would take Turner #1 and not look back.

[StocktonShorts]

While discussing Wall is fun and all, I'm much more interested in discussing the more likely scenarios: a pick between 4 and 7, which likely puts Turner and Wall out of the picture.