Andray Blatche - Resurgence Thread ( Merged )

[BruceO]

for the record I think mcgee would make a better pf than c. He certainly has the speed. He would become mismatch potential and not be pushed around so much by C's

[ZonkertheBrainless]

When I look at Blatche I see Kevin McHale, not KG.

Just sayin.

[REDardWIZskin]

i agree with those of you who will be more impressed with his response in the off season. I'd like to see the team bring someone if to work with the bigs to help develop their strengths. Kobe worked with Hakeem Olajuwon last off season i think dray would really benefit from that.
ps
look at the ways he scoring here, very reminiscent of what we've seen the last few games. add the strength, condition, and explosiveness many of you mentioned and it looks promising.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmLR_Vgb ... re=related

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't like the KG comparisons. He's not nearly as quick and/or explosive as KG; he relies more on feints, fakes, and dips than KG ever has.

I stand by my "bastard child of Danny Manning and Kevin McHale" comparison. As I said in the chat room during the Nets game, I want him to work on his explosiveness over the offseason - running with parachutes, or whatever. If he can improve his first step and/or his lift, then he'll be better equipped to finish above the rim, in addition to underneath and around it.

In any event, we all have a right to be giddy about Blatche's upside. And, I'll blissfully ignore the sobering example of Courtney Alexander, who put up 18 ppg in his first 20+ games with the Wizards after the trading deadline in 2001 only to fade into obscurity soon after.

Missed you making the comparison earlier, keynote. Hearing this now for the first time I'd say that's a PERFECT comparison.

I was thinking McHale, but only after reading a post mentioning ABs keeping his pivot foot still like McHale did. Blatche is about the same size as McHale and similar but more fluid on offense. He's not an enforcer defensively but he uses his body to get in defensive position just like McHale. He blocks shots the same way. Rebounds about the same. However, my comparison of him with McHale is somewhat incomplete.

keynote, that's why I love that you brought up the name of a guy I'd forgotten about. Danny Manning was really smooth offensively. Had everything a big man needed offensively prior to his injuries. Very sophisticated game. Great midrange. Great passer. High basketball IQ player that could carry a team offensively.

Blatche really is a combination of those two players.

[doclinkin]

When I look at Blatche I see Kevin McHale, not KG.

Just sayin.

I'd rather look at the bench and see Kevin McHale. Big Man coach.

[fishercob]

Maybe it's the exuberant comparisons of Blatche to Hall of Famers and future Hall of Famers, but I'm kinda feeling like Crash Davis when he told Nuke that his fastball was up and his curveball was hanging.

Blatche has put up BIG TIME numbers over the past 7 games. But the skeptic in me wants to consider the competition and note that each of the last 7 opponents allows opposing PFs to post an above average PER. PFs on average look like All-Stars against the Nets (average opponent PER of 19.5). Yi is almost as bad on defense as McGee.

Blatche has skills, no doubt. An array of moves, a nice feel for the game. I love the focus, toughness and intensity he's showing. I want to believe the Wiz FINALLY have a young, big star.

But then I start wondering -- how did 3 different coaching staffs so totally fail to recognize what he was capable of doing? Why is he suddenly sooooooo much better than he'd been previously. Using David Berri's Win Score (for ease of calculation), through the first 49 games Blatche had 197 TOTAL Win Score credits in 1068 minutes. He has 102 "credits" over the past 7 games -- in just 169 minutes. Since the trades and his elevation to alpha player, he's more than doubled his per minute production. That's a colossal and abrupt improvement.

Can that sudden change in form be trusted? Or are we seeing the "best player on weak team facing relatively weak competition" effect? I dunno. I look at the skills and think the Wiz finally have someone to build around. Then I look at his record over the previous years he's been with the team, and I want to wait and see. But I sure am hopeful. Especially since he's signed dirt cheap for another 2 seasons after this one.

As for McGee -- YIKES! I'm not big on counterpart stats, but McGee's are the worst I've ever seen. When he's on the floor, opposing centers have a collective PER of 29.0. Yes, opposing centers statistically resemble Shaq when McGee is on the floor. Gotta run him out there. Hopefully he'll figure out that he needs to WORK if he wants to be any good.

But man am I hopeful about Blatche.

TSW, I appreciate the sobriety on Blatche, but I think there's more reason to be optimistic than not (of course I felt that about the team heading into the season, so.....). He hasn't just been good against weak competition, he's been downright phenomenal. He's going to struggle against better teams and elite interior defenders, but given how he improved this past summer I think there's every reason to believe he'll continue to do so. I'm pretty confident that even if he's never an All-Star, he's a viable piece of the puzzle, and that's more than we can ask for.

The McGee info is insightful as well. Hopefully this will throw a little water on the "Free McGee" nonsense and the notion that Flip has held the WIzards back by not playing Javale more, when essentially every time McGee checks into the game we're instantly playing against an elite offensive center. The kid has great tools, but has a long way to go and the only way he'll get there is if he works his tail off.

[cdouglas]

Remember we had not only Jamison but Eddie Jordan holding Blatche back. If Eddie was still coaching the Wiz, I don't believe Blatche would be here. Unfortunately, we missed out on reaping the benefits of Haywood's game due to Eddie's choice of playing Etan over Haywood. Eddie was biased and preferred a smaller lineup over the bigger guys. If Blatche's summer incident didn't happen I think the Wizards would've lucked out and he would've been in a Spurs' uniform today. Remember the Spurs were looking at Blatche and then they decided to back off after the prostitute incident.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't understand you guys! Gil is still a great player and you want him GONE! That's RIDICULOUS!!

cdouglas, I think you're on point. Gil IS still a great player.

Honestly, I'm of the opinion that he came from years of being hurt to being 95% back physically, and a better passer. Flip Saunders said even after the distraction that Gil had done all Flip had asked of him.

My opinion is the federal conviction and loss of millions got his attention. It gave him time to think about acting with mature motives. I believe his play is still potentially as good as ever, and if anything now his mind is focused.

cdouglas, I also think with Blatche Gil finally has a low post threat. Jamison/Butler's porous defense is gone. Miller works in Flip's system.

I want Gil back -- unless they can trade him and get better value.

For instance, Darren Collison is a baller as a rookie. He'd be a good PG for any team. Likewise, 4 or 5 other 1st or 2nd year players aren't all that many millions worse than Gil (and a couple might be better overall, debateably).

I like Gil and his game enough to recognize he can potentially make the team a lot better, still.

Particularly with a couple guys gone.

[cdouglas]

If all goes well in court, I have no doubt that Gil will come back a better player. In many ways this the incident will be a life changer for Gil. I'm praying that Gil will be in a Wizards uniform. I always thought Gil didn't have that killer's instinct and I believe he had mentioned that himself in an article not too long ago. Gil's coming back with a vegenance and VERY serious about his career! People don't know how I'm feeling this right now!! The guy is going to be a different player. MARK MY WORDS! I'm praying he will be in a Wiz uniform when this happens! After reading articles on what Jamison and Butler said about the Wiz's offense for the past 4 years! Who do you think they were talking about? Ater reading this, I couldn't help but wonder what Gil was thinking.

[nate33]

Blatche has put up BIG TIME numbers over the past 7 games. But the skeptic in me wants to consider the competition and note that each of the last 7 opponents allows opposing PFs to post an above average PER. PFs on average look like All-Stars against the Nets (average opponent PER of 19.5). Yi is almost as bad on defense as McGee.

The good news is that he isn't merely putting up all-star numbers against weak competition, he is putting Hall of Fame numbers. If the kid can put up 27 points, 12 boards and a TS% of 60% against poor defensive teams, then we're going to be okay even if he posts 17 and 9 with a 53% TS% against the good defensive teams. That still averages out to 22 and 9 with a 56% TS%. I'm happy with that.

[closg00]

When I look at Blatche I see Kevin McHale, not KG.

Just sayin.

I'd rather look at the bench and see Kevin McHale. Big Man coach.

[cdouglas]

I really believe we're FINALLY going to see this franchise turnaround. Sometimes you have to go through the fire tocome out as pure as gold. There is light at the end of the tunnel and I believe the Wizards are at the end of that tunnel.

[montestewart]

Frankly, I don't understand how people DON'T see the similarities.

Not saying Blatche will eventually become KG, because he still doesn't possess the big thing that makes KG who he is; the intensity and fire that he plays every game with. Hopefully Blatche will gain that attribute when the team is actually competing for a playoff spot, or playing in the playoffs with him as a key cog.

Other than that, they both have similar builds, can shoot from virtually anywhere on the floor, and play the position very similarly. Blatche has a while to go on the defensive end, but he's no slouch there either.

I remember that Blatche-KG comparison at the time he was drafted. I don't think he has to develop a loud intensity like KG, who, like Mourning before him, sometimes looks like he's in a who's-more-intense competition. I'm not saying it's bad, but I've seen great players over the years (Duncan, Jabbar, Bird, etc.) possess a more subtle and stealthy killer instinct that inspires more through performance and end result than through outward posturing. Blatche the defender is not KG, but he's shown progress in his game such that I can see his defensive game greatly improving.

[Ruzious]

The truth about this team will be told this month - as the schedule is going to be much much much harder - especially starting with a backtobacktoback beginning on the 11th and then going on a long long distance road trip. The crystal ball says... there will be more ping pong balls in your future... and an amazingly sucky Blanche thread (This crystal ball is prone to typos.).

[TheSecretWeapon]

fish: I agree Blatche has been phenomenal these past 7 games. Over the past 7 games, here's the improvement we've seen in his per 40 minute numbers:

- Points: +11.3
- Reb: +3.1
- Ast: +1.5

Offensive rebounding, steals and blocks are about the same. His per minute turnovers are up, but not out of line given his increased role in the offense.

His shooting went from an efg of .476 through the first 49 games to .568 over the past 7.

The guy averaged 27.7 points, 12.2 rebounds and 3.6 assists per 40 minutes during this stretch.

Here's the list of players who put up those kinds of numbers over a full season (27 points, 12 boards, 3 assists per 40 minutes): Wilt Chamberlain (63-64), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (71-72) and Elgin Baylor 3 times (60-61, 61-62, 62-63).

It'll be interesting to see where his production is as the season continues, as he faces tougher competition and the scheduling grind, and as teams game plan for him.

[nate33]

Here's the list of players who put up those kinds of numbers over a full season (27 points, 12 boards, 3 assists per 40 minutes): Wilt Chamberlain (63-64), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (71-72) and Elgin Baylor 3 times (60-61, 61-62, 62-63).

Wilt, Kareem, Baylor? Those guys are fags!
</Jeff Spicoli voice>

[TheSecretWeapon]

Blatche has put up BIG TIME numbers over the past 7 games. But the skeptic in me wants to consider the competition and note that each of the last 7 opponents allows opposing PFs to post an above average PER. PFs on average look like All-Stars against the Nets (average opponent PER of 19.5). Yi is almost as bad on defense as McGee.

The good news is that he isn't merely putting up all-star numbers against weak competition, he is putting Hall of Fame numbers. If the kid can put up 27 points, 12 boards and a TS% of 60% against poor defensive teams, then we're going to be okay even if he posts 17 and 9 with a 53% TS% against the good defensive teams. That still averages out to 22 and 9 with a 56% TS%. I'm happy with that.

I'd be happy with that too. My question is the likelihood that he's going to be a 22 & 9 guy with a 56% TS%. My guess is that he can get the rebounding without too much trouble because he was already getting about that. He can get the scoring if he gets enough shots. The big question mark is the shooting efficiency. He has a career TS% of .511; his pre-traded TS% was .512. His TS% the previous two seasons were .512 and .508. A jump to .560 would be wonderful, but extremely unusual.

[montestewart]

The place where I could see such a leap in Blatche's offensive efficiency make sense is if the increase is more tied to a comfort and confidence in the offense coming to him, rather than, in his erratic and inconsistent minutes, feeling like he had to force things to show what he could do, or else be yanked. Time will tell, eh?

[Illuminaire]

I anticipate that Blatche will wear down a little over the next few weeks. Even last game he looked pretty gassed in the early going and failed to get back on a few defensive possessions. After coming back in the second quarter, he looked a little PO'd that the Nets were winning and turned up the energy level a few notches though.

On one level, I don't want to believe that this is the real thing. The Wizards have teased us all far, far too many times before. We don't luck into great players, we get stuck with critically flawed underachievers - it's basically our team mantra.

But... after watching Blatche the last seven games, he looks like a different player out there. It isn't just confidence, or better conditioning, or a smoother stroke, or getting more touches, or increased intensity. It's like all those elements were individual constructicons that finally formed into Devastator.

New Blatche is showing us a complete game. Working inside for position and rebounds. Cutting and moving without the ball. Directing traffic on offense and (less) defense. Manning up. Throwing down. On offense, he's taking what the defense gives him and making them pay. On defense, he's working hard to take away the other team's best options.

If he keeps this up all season and keeps working on his game over the summer, I believe he will prove to be a special player. At least until the All State blimp catches on fire during a timeout and crashes into him, leaving Blatche a scarred and mentally broken shell of his former greatness.

[GoneShammGone]

Yeah, like everybody else in this thread, I've been thrilled with what Dray has done since AJ left town. But I'm still not quite as optimistic as others here. I feel like I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop (uh, ok, that's not a great image wrt to Dray this year...) Seriously, we've seen stretches of excellent play from him in the past, only to see him retreat into lackadaisical effort and sulking about playing time and shots. Has he really changed? Will we really see consistent effort from him going forward?

I guess in Dray's defense, I think he really has had a legit beef with his playing time over the past few years. Others have mentioned that EJ could've/should've found more minutes for him. And he was very young. I just wonder, how many NBA players have made the transition from "bench-warming knucklehead" to "front-line starter"? Do we have other examples of players who have followed a similar development path? I'm thinking of Jermaine ONeal, who spent four years on the bench in Portland before breaking out, but I don't know that JO ever had a reputation for being lazy or uncoachable. Other examples?