Rose Stat Tracker S2 - 20.8 PPG, 6.0 APG, 3.7 RPG

[madvillian]

In all seriousness, he's about as effective a midrange shooter as Rip Hamilton's been for the last two years. It's in all likelihood a top 10 midrange game in this entire league, but somehow Luol Deng IS the master of the midrange, and Derrick Rose needs to get his jumpshot to a point where it's consistent.

Yeah. Right.

perceptions are hard to change. Hey, at least VDN isn't putting Hiney at PG and having Rose curl off screens! Although maybe it's not such a bad idea...

[DASMACKDOWN]

perceptions are hard to change. Hey, at least VDN isn't putting Hiney at PG and having Rose curl off screens! Although maybe it's not such a bad idea...

Perception hard to change is a massive understatement LOL

I guarantee you next year during a national telecast, someone will say after Rose hits a jumper "if Rose can consistently hit that jumper he will be unstoppable" LOL Not realizing that he has been doing it for 2 years.

But as far as the 3ptr, I believe Rose CAN hit them at a good clip right now.

He just intentionally doesnt shoot them.

Its funny but for timeouts going to the bench, Rose always pops a 3 and he makes them alot of the time. But he doesnt even look to take that same shot during a game.

Its scarey but Rose really is only starting to scratch the surface on his full potential. He is dropping 25 like its nothing and this is without shooting 3s or getting to the line alot.

[Shill]

A three-point shot and 6 free throw attempts per game, and Rose's efficiency will be comfortably elite.

[cool007]

A three-point shot and 6 free throw attempts per game, and Rose's efficiency will be comfortably elite.

And he would be scoring 23-25ppg effortlessly.

I just wish we sign a talented PF this summer and sign a couple of shooters by unloading Hinrich to one of those teams that are under the cap (Kings/Knicks/etc). I bet Rose would average 8apg next year if that happens.

What if Rose averages (hypothetically but realistically could happen) 23ppg 4rpg 8apg on good efficiency. Where would he be ranked among PGs, and among all NBA players???

[anorexorcism]

Well, I honestly don't think Vinny is going to be teaching Rose anything about expanding his game this summer. So fire his a$$ quickly and install someone new right away, not in the middle of July.

I want a coach that can get into Rose's ear this summer about the two biggest parts of his game that are still deficient - the 3 point shooting and the defense. If he does that, he will be at 25PPG next yr like cool said.

[TheAdmiral]

1.7% is my favorite number.

[Sniff-Roses]

agreed

[ScottyKCMO]

Here's an interesting stat...

Rose is now 13th in the league in PPG……and out of those top 13…….he has the # 1 FG% among the guards, and the 5th best FG% overall (behind only Amare, Bosh, LeBron, and Z Randolph.) Wow.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/scoring-per-game/sort/avgPoints/year/2010/seasontype/2

[Rerisen]

In all seriousness, he's about as effective a midrange shooter as Rip Hamilton's been for the last two years. It's in all likelihood a top 10 midrange game in this entire league, but somehow Luol Deng IS the master of the midrange, and Derrick Rose needs to get his jumpshot to a point where it's consistent.

Yeah. Right.

Rose is shooting higher percentages and very underrated around the league in the midrange, but Deng is still a good midrange shooter too - when healthy and open. Can't stress the last parts enough. The problem is this year he's been taking more and more jumpers where he tries to create off the dribble, fires early in the shot clock, or just kind of wings one up quickly. This 'Larry Hughes-ing' of what could be a team strength is counterproductive.

Then when you read comments like he made after last game, about sometimes not getting the ball, it makes me cringe because I can see next game a lot of early fired up 20 footers.

[j-smooth]

#9 is mentally fragile we all know that. I swear he better not chuck up shots early in the shot clock just to get going offensively. For a player that cannot create his own offense off the dribble he better not cost games for the Bulls.

Rose is the leader of this team and #9 is having a hard time accepting that. Its apparent by the comments and constantly ignoring Rose on fast breaks.

[Wharton Alum 08]

#9 is mentally fragile we all know that. I swear he better not chuck up shots early in the shot clock just to get going offensively. For a player that cannot create his own offense off the dribble he better not cost games for the Bulls.

Rose is the leader of this team and #9 is having a hard time accepting that. Its apparent by the comments and constantly ignoring Rose on fast breaks.

Luol ususally gets tunnel vision on the break regardless of who's running with him. He got Rose a lay-up on a break against the Grizz although it was still poorly executed for a 2 on 1 break but still a bucket.

[j-smooth]

That's true. #9 never seems to look up when on a fast break. I seriously think he's has a "problem" accepting Rose as the leader of the team. It was apparent from his body language but the comments are icing on the cake. As bad as #12 has been he knows to give Rose the ball. He's not shooting great this year and his dribbling has regressed but at least he understands and accepts the hierachy of the Bulls team. #9 needs to accept it too. Rose is the Franchise.

[alucryts]

since asg

After 12:

PER: 24.33
TS%: 58.6%

ppg: 25.0
apg: 6.00
rpg: 3.67

fta: 4.92
ft%: 79.66%

fga: 19.17
fg%: 54.78%

[MarJJMar]

Derrick Rose is a guard without "3 point range." Meaning, well, accurate range. There are a lot of those guards in this league. Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker, Devin Harris, TJ Ford, Ramon Sessions, Dwyane Wade, Rodney Stuckey, Andre Miller, Dahntay Jones, Monta Ellis, Tyreke Evans. You know an interesting fact about those guys?

Not one has a efg% on jump-shots that even comes close to Rose's 45.6%.

I don't think there's a better one of these mid-range guards than Rose. If you see one I left out, let me know.

I think it bodes quite well for the development of his 3-point shot. A shooter that talented from midrange will be able to translate sooner or later.

So? Steve Nash for one has 3pt range and is still a ton better from mid-range too.

Monta Ellis takes 3 3pt FGA per game, Rose takes one 3pter ever 2 games. eFG% is nice but it is a measure for efficiency not a measure for how good someone's midrange game is and most of the players you listed take a lot more 3s than Rose even if they aren't great 3pt shooters.

Steve Nash is at 55% on efg% btw.

[BrooklynBulls]

So? Steve Nash for one has 3pt range and is still a ton better from mid-range too.

Monta Ellis takes 3 3pt FGA per game, Rose takes one 3pter ever 2 games. eFG% is nice but it is a measure for efficiency not a measure for how good someone's midrange game is and most of the players you listed take a lot more 3s than Rose even if they aren't great 3pt shooters.

Steve Nash is at 55% on efg% btw.

Uh, Steve Nash is ****ing ridiculous. I was specifically speaking about guards who either can't hit the three, or don't shoot it. I don't care if you take 3 3's a game if you're making less than 1. It means you don't really have that shot. Rose could take a bunch of threes right now and make SOME. At this point, he shoots them ONLY in complete bailout situations. The point is that his quality of midrange shot lends itself to the belief that he will soon develop 3 point range.

[MarJJMar]

So you see my point ? eFG% tells nothing about how good someone's midrange game actually is. It's just a measure of efficiency.

I also don't really think midrange shooting tells you anything about future 3pt shooting. Kevin Johnson probably had the best midrange game in the league in his days but never became a 3pt shooting threat really.

[BrooklynBulls]

So you see my point ? eFG% tells nothing about how good someone's midrange game actually is. It's just a measure of efficiency.

I also don't really think midrange shooting tells you anything about future 3pt shooting. Kevin Johnson probably had the best midrange game in the league in his days but never became a 3pt shooting threat really.

KJ played in a time where 3 point shooting wasn't really considered that crucial.

eFG% alone doesn't tell you how good someone's midrange game is. Fortunately for Bulls fans, Rose's midrange game is both excellent AND efficient. I think midrange game tells you a lot about potential 3 point ability, especially if a player has stated that adding the shot would be a focus of his. It wasn't a focus of KJ until he got older, and couldn't slash in the same way anymore. Without looking at the stats, I believe KJ had a year where he DID become a really good 3 point shooter, but then his knees gave out in the following season.

[sdeezy]

So you see my point ? eFG% tells nothing about how good someone's midrange game actually is. It's just a measure of efficiency.

I also don't really think midrange shooting tells you anything about future 3pt shooting. Kevin Johnson probably had the best midrange game in the league in his days but never became a 3pt shooting threat really.

KJ played in a time where 3 point shooting wasn't really considered that crucial.

eFG% alone doesn't tell you how good someone's midrange game is. Fortunately for Bulls fans, Rose's midrange game is both excellent AND efficient. I think midrange game tells you a lot about potential 3 point ability, especially if a player has stated that adding the shot would be a focus of his. It wasn't a focus of KJ until he got older, and couldn't slash in the same way anymore. Without looking at the stats, I believe KJ had a year where he DID become a really good 3 point shooter, but then his knees gave out in the following season.

BB, there's no point arguing with this dude..if you hang around the PC board, he just bashes Rose every opportunity he gets. He's convinced (solely by Rose's assist numbers), that Rose is an undersized score-first ballhogging replica of Steve Francis who makes nobody better an sees Rose as nothing but a future 6th man.

[BrooklynBulls]

I'm well aware of his opinion. I'm just giving him mine.

[BrooklynBulls]

Firstly, the raw numbers need some minor adjustment.

The Bulls are a slightly faster team than the bucks (about 1%), so I inflated the Bucks and Jennings Assists and FGM by that amount.

Pace Adjusted Bucks FGM 2351, Assists 1348
Raw Bulls FGM 1796, Assists 1256

Secondly, Players can't assist their own Field Goals (well... technically speaking they do, but not in THAT way).

So we remove the FGM of each player from the total number of FGM for each team.

Pace Adjusted Bucks FGM 2351 - Pace Adjusted Jennings FGM (352) = 1998
Raw Bulls FGM 1796 - Rose FGM (537) = 1796

Thirdly, taking raw team FGM is pretty misleading, as neither player is on court for 100% of the time. So I did a big fudge, and assumed that FGM are distributed evenly over the course of the game. Rose is on court for almost bang-on 75% of the court time. Jennings is still a rookie, and is also at the mercy of the feared Skiles rotational hook, so plays 33 mpg, which is around about 68%.

Adjusted by played minutes:

Bulls FGM - Rose FGM (1796) * Rose game percentage played (75%) = 1347
Pace Adjusted Bucks FGM - Pace Adjusted Jennings FGM (1358) * Jennings percentage played (68%) = 1359

Right, so these are the made field goals which our two players could theoretically have had an impact on. So how do they stack up?

Well...

Jennings had a pace adjusted 382 assists of a roughly-estimated 1359 made field goals, so had a direct impact on 28% FGM.

Rose OTOH, had an actual 352 assists of a once again roughly estimated 1347 made field goals, directly impacting 26% FGM.

So, generally pretty close, with an edge to Jennings. Not the full story, of course. How much impact does each player have within the context of team offence?

Well... pace and minutes-played adjusted, the Bucks had 916 assists whilst Jennings was on the court, for which he was responsible for 42%. If an assist was made, it was reasonably likely to have been on the end of one of Jennings passes.

(NB: This suffers from the same (inherently dodgy) logic that all assists are distributed equally over the course of a game rather than being bunched in the time that the star PG is on the court. Sue me.)

For the Rose Bulls, they had 942 assists whilst Rose was on the court, for which Rose was responsible for 352, or 37%.

(For reference, by the above logic, Steve Nash assists 47% of the made FG and is responsible for 71% (!) of the Suns assists made whilst he's on the floor)

So it's reasonably clear that Jennings assists a larger percentage of field goals and that more of the Bucks passing game runs through him than it does Rose.

Now how do the offences as a whole stack up. Firstly, raw numbers:

Bucks FG% = .436
Bulls FG% = .448

The Bulls are a better shooting team by a reasonable margin. The Bucks certainly aren't making their current run on the basis of a pulsatingly efficient offence. However, once again if you're looking PURELY at assist performance, you have to take a player's own shooting out of the equation.

Bucks FG% - Jennings shooting = .452
Bulls FG% - Rose's shooting = .438

So yes, you're dead right that Jennings does appear to have a reasonable amount more to work with than Rose does. For kicks, however, I also calculated Team TS% (I'm not sure if this is in the SLIGHTEST a reliable or usable stat).

Bulls = .516
Bucks = .516

THEN, when you remove the PG's shooting from the calculation, it looks like:

Bulls = .513
Bucks = .527

A small trend downwards for the Bulls without Rose, with a full percentage point spike for the Bucks.

I'll be frank and admit that I didn't think the difference would be quite so obvious (despite the caveats that are my spreadsheet skills and basic statistical understandings). The edge Jennings appears to have as a distributor is counterbalanced by the apparent superiority of the rest of the Bucks roster.

A very, very good post from poster rravenred displaying just how little offense is present in the Bulls offense minus Rose. Rose averages fewer assists per 36 (I think a full assist less), and has an assist rate about 2% lower than Jennings. Jennings doesn't even play on a GOOD offensive team. Just a meh one.

And yet the result is pretty evident: you do get a significantly higher amount of assists next to better players. Even when your role is similar (both Rose and Jennings handle the ball in similar situations, with players that they defer to, and with secondary ballhandlers present on the team.

The effect isn't vast--"if guys only hit shots, Rose would average 10 assists"--that's not valid, but it does have a real impact. However, if we want Rose to be more than a 6.5 assist player, it's actually how we use HIM that we have to change, not the amount of shots other guys hit. Rose isn't the PG on a laaaarge amount of possessions, which is just not how other star PGs are used.