2010 Offseason

[babyjax13]

It may be a bit early for this but......here goes (a long one):

The most important off season in Jazz history is about to come upon us. 2011 is going to be the year where the front office can make this team into a major contender, or turn it into a perennial 1st round exit team. What makes this off season so important? Two things:

1. The luxury tax
2. Utah owns New York’s first round pick

Right now the Jazz are paying the luxury tax, a condition that we can’t be in for an extended period of time. In order to get out of this predicament some tough decisions are going to have to be made.

The Pay Roll –
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This has to be the thing that fans pay most attention to.

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages ... s/jazz.jsp

Next year we have $57,000,000 in guaranteed contracts without Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Wes Mathews, Kyrylo Fesenko and Sundiata Gaines. Out of that group, Boozer is going to demand the most money – somewhere around $13,000,000 with yearly increases; and he’s worth that kind of money too. Kyle Korver and Wes Mathews will both be looking at two to five million, all depending on the market. One of them won’t be back next year (Korver) if we have a chance at staying under the luxury tax; doing some simple math though you can see the Jazz dilemma. If Boozer demands $13,000,000 and you add that to the fifty seven million you are bumping the luxury tax wall (under the tax by just $400,000). So what do we do about Mathews, Fes, and Gaines? Another thing to consider is that our first round pick will eat up another $3.5-4 million. This is where it starts to get ugly, somewhere the Jazz need to trim salary while staying competitive.

Our Options -
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The first option that we have is just to let all of these guys walk and hope Millsap can pick up the slack, but honestly that isn’t appealing, especially if you consider that the Jazz are auditioning for Deron Williams to stay in Utah after his contract expires in 2012 or 2013. A less aggressive tactic would be to choose who needs to stay, and who you couldn’t get a replacement for any cheaper. Using this we can come up with the following plan:

1) let Korver walk
2) let Fesenko walk (we have Koufos)
3) resign Gaines (minimum)
4) Resign Boozer and Mathews

But that still isn’t enough. We will assume that resigning those 3 players tied up about $17 million in cap space, which puts us $8 million over the tax if you factor in the first round pick.

Next we need to look at players we can dump on other teams without taking back salary. There are three candidates for this treatment:



CJ Miles $3,700,000 – 9p 2r 1a 34% 3-pt

In my opinion CJ is one of the more expendable players on our roster, even if we do loose Korver. Mathews is just as effective (although he doesn’t have the ‘potential’) and gives us similar production. The problem with this plan though is that it leaves us thin on the wing, and pretty much forces the Jazz to draft a wing player with their pick when the strongest positions in the draft are center (finally) and power forward. We could find a cheap replacement however ( Flip Murray, Garrett Temple, Rasual Butler, Mardy Collins and Keith Bogans are among the long list of cheap wings in 2010), and I think this is what the Jazz will do. This season is Miles’ audition to the Jazz and the NBA. If he proves he has finally reached his potential and becomes that 15ppg, shooting wing that the Jazz need then we’ll keep him – but it won’t happen – instead he is going to prove to the rest of the NBA he can be a rotation player, and the Jazz will get a future pick (heavily protected first/second rounder) and salary relief for him and then sign someone for about $1 million to take his place.

Savings: $2,700,000



Kosta Koufos $1,298,640 – 1p 1r .2a

Koufos has struggled as of late, but he is a 20 year old center with great upside. If we let Fesenko walk the Jazz will have to think long and hard what to do at backup center. Do you risk Koufos becoming a good rotation player down the road and trade him for salary relief while picking up a cheap player, or do you hold on to him knowing that at the end of the season you can opt out of the remainder of his contract? I would rather he stayed, but I think desperate times call for desperate measures, someone will take Koufos to give us salary relief and we can sign or draft another center for a minimal amount of money ($932,125 is the minimum for next year).

Savings: $356,488



Ronnie Price $1,381,000 – 5p 1r 2a

Price has been having a career year this season, and is doing well as our backup point guard. Whenever he has been called on to take over for Deron he has been stellar, and I think that at just over $1.3 million he is cheap enough not to worry about.

Oh, but now we have a problem - there isn't any more salary we can cut in this way, and we are still $5 million over the tax. What's next? Well, the front office has to decide whether or not they can handle paying $80,000,000 for our roster for next year. If we can't then we are going to have to trade one of Mehmot Okur, Andrei Kirilenko or Paul Millsap for salary relief. The least valuble of those three players to us right now is Okur, but it would be really hard to find a center that makes under 4 million who could give us the production we need (interior defense, rebounding). An ideal candidate in this scenario would be a player like Josh Boone (and assuming New Jersey gets the #1 pick it is a possibility) or to dump Memo out-right and sign a player like Brad Miller. We could also gamble in the first round and hope that one of Cole Aldrich, Hassan Whiteside, DeMarcus Cousins, or Derrick Favors is ready to start this year.

The Draft
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On this board we've been paying a lot of attention to the situation of the Jazz in this year's draft. Acquiring the Knick's pick for taking on the contract of Tom Gugliota could become one of the greatest moves in Jazz history depending on who we draft. A lot of who we choose depends on where we draft, and our off-season transactions (or planned transactions). If we get the number one pick the obvious choice is to draft John Wall, but a better plan might be to trade down and try to get more assets (say, trade the one and Okur to New Jersey for their pick (2-4) Josh Boone, Courtney Lee, 2011 GS 1st and their 2011 1st). But that is looking through rose-colored glasses.

There are a lot of candidates for this pick, but there are a couple that stand out to me - and all of these players will be available in the range of where the Jazz will pick (2-9).

1. Evan Turner - 20p 9r 6a 4 TO

One of the best (if not the best) players in college basketball today. Has a unique package of skills that will make him an exciting player in this years draft. He has great court vision, and is a lock down defender that would solve a lot of problems for the Jazz. He is also a great rebounder from the wing. On the downside he isn't the best 3-point shooter (24%) and he averages 4 turnovers per game.

Range: 2-3 (depending on who gets 2nd pick)

2. DeMarcus Cousins - 16p 10r 1a 2b 23 minutes 64% FT

A monster in the post. He is big, has quick moves in the post, and a great feel for the game. Not the most intimidating shot-blocker, but gets the job done. On the downside, his motor has been questioned (I think that it can't be with his production in only 23 minutes of play).

Range: 2-6

3. Derrick Favors - 12p 8r 1a 1s 1b 26 minutes

He has the biggest potential out of the players on this list. An extremely gifted athlete, he has the size to play center and power forward. Efficiency at Georgia Tech has been limited, but you have to consider that he is playing just over half the game.

Range: 2-5

4. Cole Aldrich - 11p 10r 1a 4b 26 minutes

Has great potential defensively, but will be limited offensively coming into the league. Has been compared to Chris Kaman and Joel Pryzbilla, both of which are good comparisons. He's not going to be a super-star, but he could be that player that lifts the Jazz to championship status by anchoring our defense.

Range: 3-8

5. Wesley Johnson - 16p 8r 2a

Has great length and athleticism. Unlike many of the run-of-the-mill athletic small forwards Johnson is a great shooter and a passable passer which will help him a lot in the NBA (I think of him as a rich-man's Travis Outlaw). Again, he won't be a super-star, but Johnson could be the shooter the Jazz need.

Range: 4-10

6. Xavier Henry - 14p 4r 1a 40% 3-pt

A great athlete and shooter. Henry won't be a super-star, but a very good role player. He is reminiscent of CJ Miles, but I feel that even in his freshman year of College he is already on CJ's level.

Range: 8-14

2nd round -

The Jazz are very good at finding hidden gems in the second round of the draft, these are all nice suprises, but we can't expect for it to happen next season. However, I have 2 picks for second round steals.

Jamine Peterson - 19p 10r 1a

A great athlete, rebounds at a prodigious rate, and hits shots at a decent clip from the perimeter (34%). He's only 6-6 so he should be there in the 2nd round.

JaJuan Johnson - 15p 7r 1a 2b

Very mobile center/forward hybrid. Good athleticism and court awareness. Anticipates shots really well, which makes him a good rebounder and shot-blocker.

Enjoy the current Jazz team while you can, because things might be much different in Jazz land next year.

[Neon Black]

The Jazz are idiots. Extending Miles and Okur has effectively forced their hand at letting Brewer and either Korver/Wes go. Who the hell is going to shoot the ball when Korver is gone? Who will play defense when Wes is gone?

It's just plain stupid, and I'm growing tired of O'connor and Miller spewing the same basal rhetoric all the time.

[seejaydeja]

It's just plain stupid, and I'm growing tired of O'connor and Miller spewing the same basal rhetoric all the time.

I hear ya on that, but I think KOC is just a pawn to Miller's hand. Miller said himself the jazz will only be around as long as they are financially viable, and I expect the kind of offseason that will ensure financial stability versus championship basketball.

We really need to move CJ in order to re-sign Wes and Korv. If it comes down to losing two of the 3, I really think we need to keep Wes.

[babyjax13]

I hear ya on that, but I think KOC is just a pawn to Miller's hand. Miller said himself the jazz will only be around as long as they are financially viable, and I expect the kind of offseason that will ensure financial stability versus championship basketball.

If that's the case then I am really disappointed with the way things are being handled (actually I already am). It's frustrating to see your team have to trade away assets for salary relief, but my hope is that the reason they are dumping so much salary this year is so they can afford to pay what tax they have to next year in order to keep our core players together. After that AK expires (then Memo the year after) and we can sign him to a more reasonable deal (maybe $7 mill a year).

[Bullet]

or to dump Memo out-right and sign a player like Brad Miller.

Signing Miller would use up most of (or part of) the MLE, which I'd rather spend on Wes and Korver.

Two things which will dictate this offseason's dealings for Utah is that NY pick, and which of the big contracts (Boozer, AK, Memo, Millsap) the Jazz FO decide to dump. I see two scenarios happening: Scenario A would be that they re-sign Boozer and then trade AK, Memo, or Millsap to free cap space (the NY pick will have to be thrown in with whoever goes). Scenario B would be to let Boozer walk away and retain the pick.

When A happens, I'd love to see a Utah-NJ trade. The Nets WON'T sign a big name this summer, because of the current situation of the team (crappy roster, changing ownership, and possible relocation). There is too much uncertainty surrounding the NJ situation. It would be best for them to follow OKC's blueprint, which is to rebuild from the draft. I say trade Memo + NY pick for (a) Lee + Boone + a future draft pick or (b) Douglas-Roberts + Lopez + a future draft pick. Having two lottery picks from this year's draft will be a good start (imagine a Wall-Turner combo!). The Nets can build for the future and the Jazz get to shave salaries.

[qman]

First off this a pretty good post.

Second we don't know what the luxury tax or salary cap will be next season. If they both go down 10%- a real possibility. Then the Salary Cap will start at about 53 Mil and the luxury tax at 62.5 Mil.

I agree with almost everyone in saying that Memo's extension was a mistake. Because now I don't see anyway we can afford to keep Boozer/Memo/AK/Millsap and Deron together. So that means that one of them have to go. It is a real possibility that we let Boozer and Korver just walk at the end of the season. Though we will see who gets offers elsewhere. I think many players are going to be in for a very rude awakening.

A couple of notes- CJ Miles got an Offer Sheet from OKC and the Jazz matched it at Deron's request. So CJ's situation is more like Millsap's than Memo's.

Another way to look at things
CJ is paid like a good role player
Millsap is paid like a 6th man or borderline starter
Memo is paid like a starting center
Boozer is paid like a star power forward
Deron is paid like an allstar
AK is paid like an allstar

[ponder276]

Outside fan here. Hopefully he realizes that with some moderate spending they have all the pieces they need to be legitimate championship contenders for years to come. Also, AK47's huge salary comes off the books at the end of 10/11, and Okur's comes off after 11/12 (or am I wrong about this?), so the payroll would not stay high for long. Personally I would say the main priorites would be:

a) Re-sign Boozer and Matthews
b) If you're in a position to draft Evan Turner, draft him, and look to deal Millsap (possibly + expirings) for a defensive C, giving you a 3 big rotation of Boozer/Okur/defensive C
c) If you draft a bit lower, look for a traditional big like Cousins, Aldrich or Monroe, and move Millsap (possibly + expirings) for an upgrade at SG
d) Fill out the bench with FAs, consider re-signing Korver and Fesenko

The payroll would be similar to this year, but would quickly drop once AK and Memo's huge contracts expire.

Who actually owns the Jazz now that Larry Miller has passed? Still his family, right? Are they hardcore ball fans, or just interested in the money? Would they be willing to accept one season (10/11) of high salaries, knowing that the payroll would drop majorly in the summer of 2011 and again in the summer of 2012?

[HammerDunk]

Indications so far are that ownership (the Millers) are more concerned with the money aspects of things, though they will be paying the lux tax this year, but not too deep into it. My hope is that we can hang on to Booz and AK, but I doubt it will happen. I do hope we can keep AK and sign him to a much more reasonable contract when the time comes though.

[ponder276]

Indications so far are that ownership (the Millers) are more concerned with the money aspects of things, though they will be paying the lux tax this year, but not too deep into it. My hope is that we can hang on to Booz and AK, but I doubt it will happen. I do hope we can keep AK and sign him to a much more reasonable contract when the time comes though.

That'd be really unfortunate, even though I'm a Raps fan I've always had a soft spot for the Jazz, love Sloan, loved Stockton/Malone, and really like the current team as well. They're so often a really good team who just aren't quite good enough to win a ring, hopefully the ownership can be made to see that this is an excellent chance for them, and the payroll would only be in the luxury tax for 10/11, dropping quickly in the future due to expirings. The Jazz are always near the top of the league in home attendance, almost always turn a profit, the fans deserve a little spending.

If they're not willing to spend, then that Memo extension was a major mistake.

[Bullet]

What if we instead deal Boozer (on a sign and trade) to a team with cap space and a lottery pick (i.e. Washington, NJ)? That way, we get two lottery picks from this year's draft to add to a nice core of players while shaving salaries.

This may actually happen if NJ bombs out of the top 5 in the lotto, or if Washington stays low in the draft order (projected #8). The two lottery picks could possibly be Wesley Johnson and Cole Aldrich. Nice pieces, IMO.

[dr0welf]

Unless Miller is willing to pay the luxury tax they will either let Boozer walk or trade AK for some relief. Millsap's contract is reasonable IMHO. Okur has been in a slump but is worth his contract when he is playing like he did against the Clippers the last game.

AK is overpaid, we all know so either he has to be moved or eaten this next year. With a down economy I don't see the willingness to eat contracts, as they can't offset the loss easily with their other businesses. Which their other businesses are in auto sales and entertainment. Both these markets are way down.

[loserX]

What if we instead deal Boozer (on a sign and trade) to a team with cap space and a lottery pick (i.e. Washington, NJ)? That way, we get two lottery picks from this year's draft to add to a nice core of players while shaving salaries.

This may actually happen if NJ bombs out of the top 5 in the lotto, or if Washington stays low in the draft order (projected #8). The two lottery picks could possibly be Wesley Johnson and Cole Aldrich. Nice pieces, IMO.

A team with capspace has no reason to trade anything for Boozer, much less a lottery pick. They could just sign him if he wanted to go there.

If we S&T Boozer to a team with capspace, all they really get out of it is "jumping the line" of suitors, and the return won't be very much. We'd get more return from a team that doesn't have capspace...but of course that means we'd have to take salary back.

[Bullet]

A sign and trade would mean max money for Boozer, just like what Rashard Lewis did two years back.

[loserX]

A sign and trade would mean max money for Boozer, just like what Rashard Lewis did two years back.

That's true, but I would be stunned...STUNNED...if anyone gave Boozer max money, especially in the current economy. That's going to be reserved for only the Lebrons and Wades of the world, I suspect.

[carrottop12]

I could see the Jazz doing a sign and trade with Boozer to get back a good young player and a veteran with only a partially-guaranteed contract similar to what Drew Gooden had this year and then cut him. That way you can get something in exchange for Boozer, and still cut salary.

[Bullet]

I was stunned too when Lewis got a max deal. If Lebron, Wade, and Bosh re-sign with their current teams, then there would be a LOT of teams with much cap space wanting to at least sign a marquee player. After those three, the list of possible max contract players thins out to Amar'e, Joe Johnson and Booze. I wouldn't be surprised if one or two teams pressed that panic button. Heck, even David Lee could get an unreasonably high offer.