Lottery Odds make Expected Value #3 pick

[shrink]

I wanted to dispel the idea that if we finish with the second worst record makes us likely to get Wall or Turner.

Our chance of getting Wall or Turner is only 38.7%.

If we get the #3 pick (2.98 expected value), we pretty much broke even.

1 pick 19.9% ......... 0.199
2 pick 18.8% ......... 0.376
3 pick 17.1% ......... 0.513
4 pick 31.9% ......... 1.276
5 pick 12.3% ......... 0.615
Expected Value ..... 2.979

[Worm Guts]

I think most of us know that the odds are not in favor of us getting a top 2 pick, but it's funner to dream of the top 2 guys. Plus we're due.

[C.lupus]

party pooper

[Foye]

I think everbody knows that our odds are better to get the 3rd or 4th pick than the 2nd.


I strongly believe we will get the 5th pick though

[PeeDee]

I'm of the mindset that Kahn is going to do what it takes to get us Turner (I don't think he wants Wall because he's so in love with Rubio). If the lottery doesn't pan out, expect a lot of trade chatter.

[The J Rocka]

I believe Kahn knows that he has to get Turner or Wall. He will give up Al or Rubio to do so.

[Foye]

I'm of the mindset that Kahn is going to do what it takes to get us Turner (I don't think he wants Wall because he's so in love with Rubio). If the lottery doesn't pan out, expect a lot of trade chatter.

I expect that as well. But what are we going to do if NJ gets #2? They'll gladly pick Evan Turner 2nd and it's done unless we blow them away.


I am praying we get #2. Don't even want the 1st. It's Turner or bust for me.
Then trade up for Whiteside or Aldrich and the draft is perfect

[shrink]

I'm of the mindset that Kahn is going to do what it takes to get us Turner (I don't think he wants Wall because he's so in love with Rubio). If the lottery doesn't pan out, expect a lot of trade chatter.

I agree. I think Kahn believes in the "superstar" theory, and will try to bring in a player with as high an upside as he can get.

Would you give up Flynn to go from 3 to 2?

[Worm Guts]

It's typically pretty tough to move up in the draft, and I wouldn't be optimistic about getting Turner if we don't have a top 2 pick. We are helped some by the fact that the top 2 guys are perimeter players, and that 3 and 4 are bigs with great upsides. The right team may be willing to trade down.

[The J Rocka]

I'm of the mindset that Kahn is going to do what it takes to get us Turner (I don't think he wants Wall because he's so in love with Rubio). If the lottery doesn't pan out, expect a lot of trade chatter.

I agree. I think Kahn believes in the "superstar" theory, and will try to bring in a player with as high an upside as he can get.

Would you give up Flynn to go from 3 to 2?

Most definitely. Especially if we have Rubio and Sessions, we will be just fine at PG. Evan Turner is a type of player that comes around once in a couple years. I think he's the real deal, I thought OJ Mayo had great upside, but this kid is wayy better. I would for sure give up Flynn.

[Foye]

I'm of the mindset that Kahn is going to do what it takes to get us Turner (I don't think he wants Wall because he's so in love with Rubio). If the lottery doesn't pan out, expect a lot of trade chatter.

I agree. I think Kahn believes in the "superstar" theory, and will try to bring in a player with as high an upside as he can get.

Would you give up Flynn to go from 3 to 2?

I would but I'd prefer to use Flynn in a 2nd deal that nets us another top 5-11 pick.

[john2jer]

What is the expected value of every other team, though? When doing that you'll come to find that our expected value is 2nd best. New Jersey's "expected value" is closer to 2. So if they finish 2nd, and we finished 3rd, but no one has an expected value of 1, we all just move up.

I think shrink is using fuzzy math to make us feel better about the impending drop in the lottery that we all expect. We'd have prefered you just bought us all a case of beer, or a noose, or both.

[Blue Wolf]

Ricky Rubio is the only asset I would not put on the table in order to move up from 3, 4, or 5.

[Foye]

Whiteside or Aldrich
Love/ Pekovic
Brewer/Turner
Turner/Ellington
Rubio/Sessions


I think that would be a nice future lineup...Rubio should be a keeper unless we draft Wall #1

[PeeDee]

I'd trade any of our assets minus Love to get Turner. (note I wouldn't combine them all) I'd have a hard time parting with Rubio, but if thats what it would take, I'd do it. Ideally we'll come out of this draft with Turner, Love and Rubio still in our grasp.

Our pick, + Flynn + something else should get it done I would think. I'd take on a bad contract too.

[Slum_Dillinger]

What is the expected value of every other team, though? When doing that you'll come to find that our expected value is 2nd best. New Jersey's "expected value" is closer to 2. So if they finish 2nd, and we finished 3rd, but no one has an expected value of 1, we all just move up.

I think shrink is using fuzzy math to make us feel better about the impending drop in the lottery that we all expect. We'd have prefered you just bought us all a case of beer, or a noose, or both.

I've got both on deck for when May. 19th comes around. I have some extra of both, so if anyone needs one you know who to call.

FWIW. the team with the 2nd worst record has only stayed put twice in the last two decades. and they have only moved up to #1 twice in that same span. Hopefully were due or me and my lady pal are playing extreme hangman come May.

[Calinks]

The question is, would Kahn be willing to move anybody for Turner? Including Rubio or Love? I kind of get the impression that if he believe Turner is a true superstar he would. I don't think Kahn puts Love in the superstar category. I don't know if he puts Rubio there either but I think he may be higher on Rubios potential than Love's.

[PeeDee]

Yeah, I don't think Kahn thinks like me exactly. I just think a core of Love, Turner, Rubio could be something special.

[revprodeji]

The belief is that Wall and Rubio could work in the backcourt together. Wall is roughly the same frame as Wade and Rubio is 6'4/6'5 with a 6'9/6'10 wingspan.

[PeeDee]

I'm quitting Real GM if we draft Wall. Not because I think he's a bad player or wouldn't work... it's because drafting another PG will make this forum unreadable for a LONG time.