JP Ricciardi blames Rogers

[Michael Bradley]

Wait, you mention that the Giants would suck without Lincecum as if it were a sure thing, but when that is proven wrong, you're making another excuse for that? Do you want to eliminate all non-Lincecum games against the NL West now? What if they were still over .500 after that? Want to eliminate all games against the NL period? And I don't see how you can dismiss TEAM wins and losses at this point and put such weight on pythag, which is incredibly flawed itself.

I don't think you are understanding Jayson Stark's point of bringing up the records with and without Halladay. Of course it is relevant, especially when used in the course of EIGHT seasons worth of sample size. Halladay was all but a guaranteed win every 5th day (at least in baseball standards). Whether he won or not was up to many factors, but he put his team in a position to win more often than not, and their record when he started confirmed that. For the Jays to not be able to field even a .500 record in all but one season when Roy didn't start is a leading contributor to why the team never did anything while he was here. That's the point. JP was awful at building a team around him and was often bailed out of warranted criticism because Roy alone was able to boost the team's win total to decent levels. The team AROUND HIM was not good enough to win when he wasn't throwing CG shuouts every 5th day. That's a reflection on the talent and on the GM who put that talent together.

58-70
61-65 (Jays were 25-11! when Roy started)
57-84
66-77
64-66
63-68
66-63 (yay! finally!)
58-72

Those were Toronto's record since 2002 when anyone but Halladay started a game. So in 2008 Ricciardi, thanks to great pitching, finally built a team that was good. Unfortunately the offense stunk, but that in itself is a reflection of Ricciardi.

If people are going to use the divisional excuse to defend JP, then no Jays GM will ever be held accountable. If AA doesn't win in 10 years....oh well, he was still good because he was up against Boston and New York (and now Tampa). It's not like JP's teams were dropping 90-95 wins and missing the playoffs. If they were then you would have a point. They were good for 3 seasons (03, 06, 08) and average to mediocre every other year.

[Hoopstarr]

I was responding to your principle point, just using Pujols and Lincecum as examples of great players.

And we'll just have to agree to disagree on whether the team around Doc was good enough. The metrics and common sense comparison to other teams says those other players were plenty good enough, and the team's defense and pitching were good to great as well, even despite the injuries (especially in 07) and bad luck, to make up a playoff caliber team in all of those years.

[Attonitus]

I was responding to your principle point, just using Pujols and Lincecum as examples of great players.

And we'll just have to agree to disagree on whether the team around Doc was good enough. The metrics and common sense comparison to other teams says those other players were plenty good enough, and the team's defense and pitching were good to great as well, even despite the injuries (especially in 07) and bad luck, to make up a playoff caliber team in all of those years.

So your really saying injuries and bad luck were the reasons JP couldn't field a playoff team in over 8 years here? wow he must have been born under a ladder beside a black cat on top of a smashed mirror.

[Hoopstarr]

So your really saying injuries and bad luck were the reasons JP couldn't field a playoff team in over 8 years here? wow he must have been born under a ladder beside a black cat on top of a smashed mirror.

The Jays set a record in 2007 for the most games missed to injuries. That was an important year for that team after the 2006 team had their first year together. Also note all the major injuries to starting pitchers recently. Lots of teams have major injuries but we've been hit especially hard. And yes, they did have bad luck. According to their third order standings, they were capable of winning 91, 87, and 92 wins and 84 even in 2009 going by run differentials. That was good for 3rd, 8th, 4th, and 11th in the majors.

Yes, there are plenty of things they did wrong that hurt their chances, but like I said, it would've required JP to be literally the best GM in the majors just to win a wild card. So yes, he was a definitely a failure by that standard. I'm glad he's gone (they wasted his time and everyone else's by not firing him after 2008) and they're headed in a direction more in line with the other teams in the division (just like JP's strategy in 2001 was in line with teams of that time too). Heck even now, there's absolutely no guarantee that this strategy will succeed unless Anthopoulous becomes absolutely the best GM in the business. That's the margin for error--close to zero--that the Jays, Os, and Rays have had for the whole decade and it's still there as long as Boston and New York are around. The Rays rose to the top of the East in 2008 after 10 years of absolute suckage because their GM Andrew Friedman became the best in baseball and even they still have very little room for error--finished 3rd last year with 84 wins, but had 92 third order wins. Unfortunately for the Jays this decade under Rogers, losing 100 games for a decade like the Rays was not an option, so they fell into a no man's land of trying to compete without spending like NYY/Bos and without the benefit of a full rebuild.

[raps4life~]

No point in making where we play an excuse. It is what it is. When we talk about how "good" this team was/is it HAS to be in comparison to NYY/BOS, there's no point of saying we would have been a great team had we played in a weaker division because it doesn't mean anything.

[Avenger]

No point in making where we play an excuse. It is what it is. When we talk about how "good" this team was/is it HAS to be in comparison to NYY/BOS, there's no point of saying we would have been a great team had we played in a weaker division because it doesn't mean anything.

Not only that but the only reason Retardi had a decent record in the division was because of some guy by the name of Roy Halladay. JP's supporters will show you expected wins and pythag wins and all that nonsense but they won't tell how we fare in those exact same stats when you take out Roy Halladay, we play something like .624 ball when he is on the mound, anyone care to take guess what our win percentage is without the good Doctor. I love how people think getting 85 wins, even in the AL East is some sort of an accomplishment. Any Run of the Mill GM could have gotten us the same record if he inherited the Greatest Pitcher of the Decade and a top 10 payroll(could have been top 5, JP never really made a serious case to Rogers for a 120-130 million payroll )

[Hoopstarr]

Most people would rather take comfort in irrationally channeling their anger rather than accept facts and context, so you can't really do anything with them. Regardless, here's another fact that I'm sure they'll just write off as an "excuse" instead of accepting it as a valid explanation: The Jays, as a TEAM, had the 3rd best average WAR from 2006-2009 in the AL. Red Sox 51.03, Yankees 49, Jays 42.38.

[Avenger]

Most people would rather take comfort in irrationally channeling their anger rather than accept facts and context, so you can't really do anything with them. Regardless, here's another fact that I'm sure they'll just write off as an "excuse" instead of accepting it as a valid explanation: The Jays, as a TEAM, had the 3rd best average WAR from 2006-2009 in the AL. Red Sox 51.03, Yankees 49, Jays 42.38.

Where do you think we would have ranked if you replaced the greatest pitcher of the decade with a league average one?

[Michael Bradley]

I was responding to your principle point, just using Pujols and Lincecum as examples of great players.

And we'll just have to agree to disagree on whether the team around Doc was good enough. The metrics and common sense comparison to other teams says those other players were plenty good enough, and the team's defense and pitching were good to great as well, even despite the injuries (especially in 07) and bad luck, to make up a playoff caliber team in all of those years.

My point with Linceum (who I just used because you mentioned him) is that good teams win when their star pitchers don't start. Of course Toronto is going to have a great record with Roy; most would consider him the best pitcher of the 2000's. The problem is when he wasn't starting the team was basically a 75-win team in terms of performance.

To put it in perspective, in terms of IP, wins, and ERA, the ace for the Rays in 2008 was James Shields. When he started, the Rays were 22-11 (.667). The rest of the time, the Rays were 75-54 (.581). That was a more balanced team from top to bottom, and while you can say it was a perfect storm type season for them where everything went right, it was still in the AL East up against the same monsters the Jays have had to contend with.

If Ricciardi did a better job putting talent around Halladay, they would have been able to win consistently even when he wasn't on the mound. You can look at expected wins, pythag, etc, but ultimately, it is still Halladay skewing the numbers in Toronto's favor, and if a Halladay (in his prime) lead team can only win 85-ish games at best, then that's a damn shame. He'll go to Philly and barring injury that team will smoke everyone in the NL. He's finally on a team with talent.

The only time JP came close to fielding a potentially great team was 2008 when they had the #1 pitching in baseball. Of course, the offense blew chunks. You can blame anything you want (luck, injuries, etc) but bottomline is it wasn't good enough. Nothing he did was ever good enough, and in a perfect world JP would give half his money to Roy because that's the only reason his team's overall record in eight years (which is average to begin with) looked as good as it did.

[Hoopstarr]

Where do you think we would have ranked if you replaced the greatest pitcher of the decade with a league average one?

Couldn't I easily use the same "it is what it is, you can't change it anyway" logic here too?

But fine, I'll oblige. And I hope you mean take out Doc on the Jays AND every other AL team's ace too, because otherwise this is a silly debate.

Here are the WAR leaders among starters for 2006-2009:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 06&month=0
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 07&month=0
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 08&month=0
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 09&month=0

And here again are the top 5 teams in average WAR (individual player WARs added up) for that period:

Red Sox - 51.0
Yankees - 49.3
Jays - 42.4
Angels - 41.7
Indians - 39.8

So if you take out each of those team's top WAR starter for each of those years, you'd get this order:

Red Sox - 45.2
Yankees - 44.1
Angels - 36.3
Blue Jays - 35.9
Indians - 34.8

So long story short, not much change.

[Avenger]

Where do you think we would have ranked if you replaced the greatest pitcher of the decade with a league average one?

Couldn't I easily use the same "it is what it is, you can't change it anyway" logic here too?

But fine, I'll oblige. And I hope you mean take out Doc on the Jays AND every other AL team's ace too, because otherwise this is a silly debate.

No that's not what i mean and its not a silly debate. This isn't about how good the Blue Jays were in the past decade, this is about what JP did and last time i checked he didn't draft and develop Halladay, he inherited and wasted his prime. The truth is the only reason we were decent is because of Halladay, it has absolutely nothing to do with JP and what he did to improve the team. Any run of the mill GM could have gotten us a statistically mediocre team if he inherited the Greatest Pitcher of the decade and a decent sized payroll.

[Hoopstarr]

???

You just repeated the same post from the top of the page. I already showed you how the Jays were a well-rounded playoff caliber team so I'm not going to repeat myself. Why don't you guys just admit what this is really about. That you're mad about the Jays not making the playoffs for 16 years and that JP couldn't become the best GM in the majors in order to accomplish that. Because that we can all agree on.

[The_Hater]

Wait, so a team's best players are significantly responsible for its success? Weird. So you're telling me that the Cardinals would suck without Pujols? The Giants would suck without Lincecum? You're on to something here.

But the point is that JP had nothing to do with Roy being here, unless you count that he didn't give him away or let him leave somewhere during his term. As he did with Chris Carpenter.

[Modern_epic]

Sorry, I'm not sure I understand he game being played here. Is it "lets get rid of all the players a GM inherited?" Or is it "let's hold JP to a ridiculous **** double standard"?

Because if it is the former, we get to take some pretty good people off Boston and New York, too. I'm not sure about the Indians or Angels, but I would think that is a safe bet there as well.

[Hoopstarr]

Wait, so a team's best players are significantly responsible for its success? Weird. So you're telling me that the Cardinals would suck without Pujols? The Giants would suck without Lincecum? You're on to something here.

But the point is that JP had nothing to do with Roy being here, unless you count that he didn't give him away or let him leave somewhere during his term. As he did with Chris Carpenter.

OK this again. Here are the facts on the Carpenter release. His 2002 contract paid him $3.45M. They could have renewed him after his horrible 2002 season, but only at a maximum of a 20% pay cut, which after that season and his injuries didn't make much sense. So they tried to assign him to the AAA roster, which he refused (he had the right to since he was a 5 year vet) and thus he became a free agent. He was about to miss the entire 2003 season with no guarantee of a return, but now we have revisionists pretending there was no logic in it at all and that he was a sure thing to rebound. The Cardinals picked him up a couple months later for a low-paying, incentive-laden deal and they struck gold, probably with a big dose of help from pitching coach Dave Duncan. The Jays of course couldn't offer this kind of deal so they had no choice but to release him or pay him, which under that payroll and in his first year as GM wouldn't be a good move to make.

[Hoopstarr]

Sorry, I'm not sure I understand he game being played here. Is it "lets get rid of all the players a GM inherited?" Or is it "let's hold JP to a ridiculous **** double standard"?

Because if it is the former, we get to take some pretty good people off Boston and New York, too. I'm not sure about the Indians or Angels, but I would think that is a safe bet there as well.

Theo Epstein inherited Pedro (the previous Best Pitcher in Baseball) and Jon Lester from the previous GM, Beckett was traded for during that period where he left the team, and Dice-K was bought with cold hard cash.

[Michael Bradley]

Wait, so a team's best players are significantly responsible for its success? Weird. So you're telling me that the Cardinals would suck without Pujols? The Giants would suck without Lincecum? You're on to something here.

But the point is that JP had nothing to do with Roy being here, unless you count that he didn't give him away or let him leave somewhere during his term. As he did with Chris Carpenter.

OK this again. Here are the facts on the Carpenter release. His 2002 contract paid him $3.45M. They could have renewed him after his horrible 2002 season, but only at a maximum of a 20% pay cut, which after that season and his injuries didn't make much sense. So they tried to assign him to the AAA roster, which he refused (he had the right to since he was a 5 year vet) and thus he became a free agent. He was about to miss the entire 2003 season with no guarantee of a return, but now we have revisionists pretending there was no logic in it at all and that he was a sure thing to rebound. The Cardinals picked him up a couple months later for a low-paying, incentive-laden deal and they struck gold, probably with a big dose of help from pitching coach Dave Duncan. The Jays of course couldn't offer this kind of deal so they had no choice but to release him or pay him, which under that payroll and in his first year as GM wouldn't be a good move to make.

That’s not entirely true. Yes, the Jays non-tendered him for financial reasons, but according to a Toronto columnist at the time (forgot which one), Carpenter wanted a MLB contract while he rehabbed, even if it was at the league minimum. Jays offered him a minor league contract so he refused and looked elsewhere. I believe the Cardinals and Red Sox (maybe others) offered MLB contracts, so Ricciardi at the last minute offered one as well but by then the damage was already done and Carpenter signed elsewhere. So the $300,000 and 40-man roster spot for a rehabbing starter (who one year prior was the team’s best pitcher) was not worth it in Ricciardi’s eyes, but the $1 million he gave Tanyon Sturtze, and the $1.5 million he gave Jeff Tam and Doug Creek, etc, that same off-season apparently was.

Carpenter recovering from his surgery was lucky, but the Jays could have been the ones reaping the benefits if JP wanted him enough.

[Hoopstarr]

But the point is that JP had nothing to do with Roy being here, unless you count that he didn't give him away or let him leave somewhere during his term. As he did with Chris Carpenter.

OK this again. Here are the facts on the Carpenter release. His 2002 contract paid him $3.45M. They could have renewed him after his horrible 2002 season, but only at a maximum of a 20% pay cut, which after that season and his injuries didn't make much sense. So they tried to assign him to the AAA roster, which he refused (he had the right to since he was a 5 year vet) and thus he became a free agent. He was about to miss the entire 2003 season with no guarantee of a return, but now we have revisionists pretending there was no logic in it at all and that he was a sure thing to rebound. The Cardinals picked him up a couple months later for a low-paying, incentive-laden deal and they struck gold, probably with a big dose of help from pitching coach Dave Duncan. The Jays of course couldn't offer this kind of deal so they had no choice but to release him or pay him, which under that payroll and in his first year as GM wouldn't be a good move to make.

That’s not entirely true. Yes, the Jays non-tendered him for financial reasons, but according to a Toronto columnist at the time (forgot which one), Carpenter wanted a MLB contract while he rehabbed, even if it was at the league minimum. Jays offered him a minor league contract so he refused and looked elsewhere. I believe the Cardinals and Red Sox (maybe others) offered MLB contracts, so Ricciardi at the last minute offered one as well but by then the damage was already done and Carpenter signed elsewhere. So the $300,000 and 40-man roster spot for a rehabbing starter (who one year prior was the team’s best pitcher) was not worth it in Ricciardi’s eyes, but the $1 million he gave Tanyon Sturtze, and the $1.5 million he gave Jeff Tam and Doug Creek, etc, that same off-season apparently was.

Carpenter recovering from his surgery was lucky, but the Jays could have been the ones reaping the benefits if JP wanted him enough.

You're being quite conveniently revisionist here. First of all, you make it sound like he was much more of a sure thing to come back than he really was. He wasn't just a "rehabbing starter", he was out for at least a season with a torn labrum injury that at the time was considered a death sentence for any pitcher's career, and really it still is today.

As for the offers, you're right that all he wanted was 300k, but this was after he went through waivers and no team was willing to accept his contract even at a 20% pay cut. He didn't want the 300k from the Blue Jays because he seemed to want to bolt from the very beginning after the pissing match that spring about an extension. So when you say that "by then damage was done", do you mean how Carpenter's agent that spring (2002) decided to negotiate through mudslinging in the media and how he for some reason expected JP to live up to Gord Ash's word that Carpenter would get a multi-year deal? And how Carpenter hid his injuries that spring so he could be the opening day starter in Boston? That's when the damage was really done. They could have even traded him at that summer's deadline (in fact, I remember JP himself saying they were very close to completing a Carpenter for Carlos Pena trade), but I guess they decided to hold on to him because he was pitching well around that time. He then went back to being the huge disappointment he almost always was except now with a career-threatening injury to boot. From the start, Carpenter kept seesawing on whether he liked being a Blue Jay depending on his chances of getting a multi-year deal that he didn't deserve anyway. By the end of 2002, Jays fans were fed up with him and ready to move on, and most fans praised JP for cutting the cord as you can see from the following Batter's Box threads from that time.

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?st ... 2063911999
http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?st ... 4011219999

[kelso]

Ok, so basically he was wrong on Carpenter then? Yes, maybe a lot of people were as wll, but JP was wrong on Carpenter. Seriously though, for every piece of statistical support you come up with to justify your unexplainable defense of JP there is a BJ Ryan free agent contract, a Frank Thomas free agent contract, a Vernon Wells extension, a Felipe Lopez for Jason Arnold, a Quantrill/Izturis for Prokopec...etc....

[Randle McMurphy]

At least somebody is still fighting the good fight. The hate for Ricciardi as a GM is largely unjustified.

I love reading those old Batterbox threads, btw. Sometimes I run into my own old comments from that site.