http://www.nba.com/pistons/news/trueblu ... 00325.htmlLottery Primer
The Pistons weren’t officially eliminated from playoff contention until this week, but the odds turned against them by late January, when they recovered from their 13-game losing streak to win four out of five, including a rousing win over Boston to kick off a six-game home stand – and then promptly lost the next five. They’d sunk to 15-31 when the dust cleared. Nothing short of a miracle was going to save them at that point. It would have taken a 26-10 finish to get to .500, a pace that would have taxed even the Pistons of recent conference finals-vintage. Since then, other things have come into focus. The Pistons were not only going to be in the lottery, but probably not at the bottom end of it – nor at the top. For the past month or so, a class system has developed among the likely lottery teams. New Jersey, Minnesota and Golden State long ago put a clamp on the top three spots. But don’t be confused – that doesn’t mean they’ll wind up picking 1-2-3 on June 24, only that they’ll go into the May 18 lottery with the best chances at landing in the top three. At the other end, three Western Conference teams – Memphis, Houston and New Orleans – are just over or just under .500 but virtually out of contention. Whoever doesn’t wind up with the No. 8 seed in the East – that looked certain to be Chicago until Toronto began its recent free-fall – will join those three West teams with lottery odds long enough that it’s pretty likely they’ll be the four choosing 11-14. The means that unless the Pistons leap into the top three, or unless one of the four long shots jumps over them, they’ll probably be picking between 4 and 10. And even in the last week, that range probably got a little narrower. Washington has lost 13 straight and is sitting on 21 wins – two fewer than the Pistons – with 12 to play. It’s hard to find two wins left on Washington’s schedule, let alone however many it would take for the imploding Wizards to wind up with more victories than the Pistons. So you can probably scratch off No. 4 as a realistic lottery slot for the Pistons. (Keep in mind that while all 14 non-playoff teams have a chance to get a top-three pick, once the top three spots are settled record determines 4-14.)
Indiana’s sudden hot streak pushes the Pacers three full games ahead of the Pistons. Philadelphia’s Wednesday road win over Milwaukee puts the 76ers two wins ahead of Detroit, as are the Knicks. But New York faces by far the toughest schedule of the group. The Knicks open a five-game Western road trip on Friday with games at Phoenix, Utah and Portland to get it started; eight of New York’s remaining 11 games are on the road. Sacramento lost at New Jersey on Wednesday – which means the Nets can tie Philadelphia’s nine wins of 1972-73 as the worst in NBA history by beating the Pistons at home on Friday – and the Kings play at Boston and Cleveland this weekend. Even though Sacramento plays five of 10 remaining games at home, it’s a tough group of visitors, mostly: Portland, San Antonio, Dallas, Houston and the Clippers. Eleven games isn’t a lot of time to make up significant ground. Seven of the Pistons’ remaining games are against teams currently in the playoff field and an eighth comes against Chicago – Sunday at The Palace – which will be pulling out all stops to overtake Toronto. So it won’t be easy for the Pistons to make up more than a game or two. That makes it various degrees of unlikely the Pistons will overtake the Clippers, Pacers or 76ers – though they play at Philly on April 6 in a swing game – but give them a shot at catching the Knicks and make it somewhat likely they best Sacramento. That means the best guesswork at this point is that the Pistons – assuming the lottery goes to form, which it never does – will be picking 6 or 7.What happens if three or four teams from that tightly bunched group wind up with the same record? There are two answers. For purposes of the lottery odds at landing a top-three pick, the number of lottery combinations assigned to each tied team will be combined and divided by the number of teams. Let’s say New Jersey, Minnesota, Golden State, Washington and Sacramento land the five most favorable spots. And let’s say the Pistons, Knicks and 76ers tie for the next three spots, 6-8. There are 1,000 possible lottery combinations divided among the 14 non-playoff teams. The Nets, assured the worst record, will get 250 of the 1,000 chances for a 25 percent shot at the No. 1 pick. It goes down from there. The No. 6 team will have 63 combinations, the No. 7 team 43 and the No. 8 team 28. Combine those chances and divide by three and the Pistons, Knicks and 76ers would each be allotted 48 lottery combinations out of 1,000 – a 4.8 percent shot each at No. 1.
But what happens if none of the three land a top-three pick? How would their draft order then be determined? The NBA will hold a drawing within days of the regular season’s conclusion to break all ties. Now, what might a pick at 6, 7 or 8 yield? There’s been a recent rush to conclude that teams have to get in the top four of this draft to land a player of instant impact – John Wall, Evan Turner, Derrick Favors and DeMarcus Cousins. I’m not saying those four won’t a year from now have emerged as the four best players in this draft, but it’s unlikely. Every year there’s talk that at some point in the draft there’s a dropoff, and every year the results of the draft wind up defying expectations. Coming into the college season, Ed Davis was considered right there with, or perhaps above, both Cousins and Favors. North Carolina had a lousy season and Davis broke his wrist. If he falls to five or beyond and the Pistons wind up with him, it wouldn’t surprise me if Davis has a better rookie year than Favors or Cousins and winds up a better or equal pro. Same with Wesley Johnson of Syracuse and Evan Turner. Turner is more than likely going in the top four – there’s recent sentiment he will challenge Wall for the No. 1 pick – and Johnson not, though a few more big NCAA tournament games could scramble the outlook. But Turner wasn’t considered a lottery lock coming into the season and he wasn’t a dominant college player his first two years, beaten out for Big Ten Player of the Year by Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas as a sophomore. If the top four wind up Wall, Turner, Cousins or Favors, then the Pistons likely will choose from among the group of Johnson, Davis, Cole Aldrich, Greg Monroe or Al Farouq-Aminu – assuming all of those players declare. Monroe and Davis, publicly, have given indications they’re considering returning to school, but the rest, all of them college underclassmen, are far more likely than not to be in the draft. And there’s still a chance someone like Marshall’s Hassan Whiteside, not widely scouted until he gathered momentum as his freshman season progressed, or one or two international big men, could take another leap with impressive individual workouts. Stay tuned. It’s still nearly two months until lottery night and almost three months exactly until the draft.
