Was Aaron Hill's last season an outlier?

[darth_federer]

Hear me out here and dont flame me. I hope Hill has a great season, but these numbers have dampened my expectations a little.

Fan Graphs does a prediction of each player from various analysts (saber metrics guys like Bill James) each year and they are usually pretty accurate. They are expecting Hill to hit 20 home runs and about 80 RBI's. They say that Hill had a lot of luck because most his flyballs became homeruns.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.as ... osition=2B

Here are some graphs for you. Look at how close Hill's homeruns are to the outfield. He barely cleared em a lot of times. HIll is a GREAT pull hitter, but doesnt really hit homeruns across the plate. Compare this to Adam Lind, who is a great hitter and is expected to have another stellar season

[FreeAgent]

Not gonna lie, those graphs looks pretttty sick.

But yeah, I'd have to agree that I think his HRs will regress a bit this year. I'm guessing like 25ish. But the way he's hitting in Spring, who knows?

[Modern_epic]

Nobody is going to flame you for that. This isn't the raps board. In fact, I feel comfortable saying that most of the regulars on here already know that last season was almost certainly an outlier as far as power goes. The question this year is can he turn some of the respect pitchers will be giving him into walks. He he falls down into the low 20s for HRs, but the missing homers go back to being doubles, plus he has learned to take a walk, he will be at least as valuable a player.

[Hoopstarr]

Lol, no flaming around here. It's well known that Hill's HR/FB rate was a big outlier last year and he had a bunch of "just-enough" HRs. There's nothing wrong with 10 less HRs but 10 more doubles. Especially when he is also one of the best fielding 2Bs in the majors too. Like M_E said, he's even taking the OBP criticism to heart and working on that too. I bet he still ends up with the same OPS this year even with 10 less HRs.

[Randle McMurphy]

Yes, a definite outlier. 20+ HR with a .800 OPS is probably a fair estimate for this season.

[Randle McMurphy]

plus he has learned to take a walk, he will be at least as valuable a player.

I'm going to need much more than a few ST ABs to prove that Aaron Hill has learned how to take a walk.

[Relentless88]

Yeah I think so too. I'm expecting 25 HRs this season from Aaron.

[ItsDanger]

20 HR???? He got 6 HR in spring. This guy is legit. I expect 30 HR and a much better BA. Maybe .290-.300. Hes never gonna have upper deck power but so what.

[koolguy]

definitely a regression from the mean. wouldn't bet on him surpassing his last season. maybe he can getting less than 30 hr barring injuries