Wells lays odds on summer moves

[mizzoupacers]

Story by Mike Wells in which he gives odds for likelihood of Pacer expiring contracts/free agents to be traded or re-signed this summer.

link

I'd give it slightly different odds.

Murphy
Wells: 60% chance of being traded this summer
Me: 1%

Look, here is how the Pacers' front office thinks--"Our goal is to make the playoffs, and Murphy is our second-best player, and we need him to make the playoffs." So, no matter how pointless the goal is for next year (honestly, they might make the playoffs... but if so, it will only be as low-seed cannon fodder), the front office will stick to it, and they won't trade Murphy unless someone makes an offer that can't be refused, which I give about a 1% chance of happening.

And unless the team is hopelessly out of contention by February, Murph won't be traded at the trade deadline either. You read it here first!

Ford
Wells: 90% chance of being traded
Me: 0% chance of being traded

What other team wants to pay Ford $8.5 million next season? Come on, he's unmovable. Unless the Pacers want to take back a longer unwanted contract in return. The Pacers' "plan" is to shed unwanted salary in Summer 2011, so that's not going to happen, and we're going to be stuck with Ford for one final season.

Dunleavy
Wells: 1 to 5% chance of being traded
Me: about the same

Dun could be moved if someone wants to take a chance on him being back at full strength next year, and doesn't have to give up much to get him. Pacers probably wouldn't be looking to get too much for him this summer. So I give a trade a slight chance of happening.

Foster
Wells: 10% chance of being traded
Me: 0%

Considering how little trade value Foster has after missing so many games in recent years, I think the Pacers will value his mature leadership presence more than anything they might get for him in trade.

Watson
Wells: 45% chance he will re-sign with the Pacers
Me: 0%

Watson wants to play for a winner, and there are winning teams that could use his steady presence at backup pg. One of those teams will make him an offer this summer, and he'll be gone.

What's it all add up to? As far as I'm concerned, I won't be fooled by our front office's promises of "roster change" this summer. They know it's what we want to hear, but they just don't have the means to make it happen yet. We'll go into next season with about the same roster, other than swapping new draft picks/extremely minor free agents for Watson, Head and etc.

Summer 2011, though, has a chance of being more exciting.

[Starkiller]

The reasons you listed for Murphy's return are why we are in the crapper, who gives a damn about making the playoffs if you have no chance of going anywhere? I would rather win 10 games a year than be an 8 seed getting bounced first round and going nowhere. If we make the playoffs next year, we will set ourselves back again.

Making the playoffs this year, or next year, does nothing for us, we need to only make the playoffs when the team is good enough to actually do some damage, which it hasn't been since Ron Artest, Steven Jackson and JO Pearl Harbored the fans in Detroit.

[ardthomp]

I am of the thought that Murphy or Foster will be moved this Summer. With the weak crop of PGs in the draft and having to stretch to get a wing in the draft with our pick, I would say we are going big man all the way. Let's say we get a guy like Ekpe Udoh (declared) or Greg Monroe (undeclared) at the 10 spot. That will leave us with Hibbert, Jones, McRoberts, Hansbrough, Foster, Murphy, and Udoh/Monroe in the frontcourt. 7 of the 15 roster spots would be taken up by big men, a few of which won't play.

If the team wants to build for the future, trade Murphy and/or Foster for a PG and a pick or two (2nd rounders are welcome). Let's just get rid of the money this summer, so we can focus on having a shell of a roster for when 2011 does come around. There would be no point in bringing in all new players in 2011 when Murph/Dun/Foster/Solo/McRoberts/Ford come off the books. That would be too much turnover and chemistry would be jacked up again.

The only question is, how much value can we get this summer versus the trade deadline?

[Miller4ever]

Quite a bit more. Most of the players have increased their own values with their post-deadline play.