Let Me Just Say This... (Lottery)

SacTownKings4Life · Post #1 » by **SacTownKings4Life** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 3:56 am

Last year, we had the worst record in the league and only came away with the 4th pick (the lowest pick possible), while the Clippers (who were tied for the 3rd worst record in the league) got #1.
THIS year, we are in the exact same position as the Clippers of last year (tied for the 3rd worst record). With that in mind...
If the Kings wind up with anything worse than the 3rd pick, I say an official league investigation needs to be conducted, because I fail to see how it could be "coincidence" that the same team can finish in the bottom 4 two years in a row and STILL draw the EXACT same pick (the lowest pick possible, given their record) in two consecutive years.

On another note, I also say that the Nets had better NOT miraculously come up #1 either. I don't care how many ping pong balls they have...

perezident · Post #2 » by **perezident** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:08 am

I think being involved in a tie in terms of going into the lottery, we'd have to do some coin toss up to see who gets the actual 3rd postion before the lottery. The third spot going into the lottery is always has good chances of becoming successful in winning the lotto. Also, I think as the 3rd spot the lowest draft pick we can get is the 5th. So thats not bad at all...

Post #3 » by **pillwenney** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:22 am

SacTownKings4Life wrote:Last year, we had the worst record in the league and only came away with the 4th pick (the lowest pick possible), while the Clippers (who were tied for the 3rd worst record in the league) got #1.
THIS year, we are in the exact same position as the Clippers of last year (tied for the 3rd worst record). With that in mind...
If the Kings wind up with anything worse than the 3rd pick, I say an official league investigation needs to be conducted, because I fail to see how it could be "coincidence" that the same team can finish in the bottom 4 two years in a row and STILL draw the EXACT same pick (the lowest pick possible, given their record) in two consecutive years.

On another note, I also say that the Nets had better NOT miraculously come up #1 either. I don't care how many ping pong balls they have...

This is ridiculous. The Kings had a better chance of getting the #4 pick than any other pick last year. It's entirely possible that we get a bad pick again.

I mean, you do know that the odds of getting a worse pick aren't the same as the actual lottery, correct?

Don't get me wrong. I'll be frustrated if that happens, but calling for a league-wide investigation is ridiculous. There are no draft conspiracies. If there were, Tim Duncan or Greg Oden would be a Celtic, Lebron James would be a Knick--I mean I could go on. There just isn't sound logic here.

deNIEd · Post #4 » by **deNIEd** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:26 am

Lol, do you guys all understand how probability works?

SacTownKings4Life · Post #5 » by **SacTownKings4Life** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:58 am

mitchweber wrote:This is ridiculous. The Kings had a better chance of getting the #4 pick than any other pick last year. It's entirely possible that we get a bad pick again.

I mean, you do know that the odds of getting a worse pick aren't the same as the actual lottery, correct?

Don't get me wrong. I'll be frustrated if that happens, but calling for a league-wide investigation is ridiculous. There are no draft conspiracies. If there were, Tim Duncan or Greg Oden would be a Celtic, Lebron James would be a Knick--I mean I could go on. There just isn't sound logic here.

But at least he essentially gets to play right in his own backyard.

deNIEd wrote:Lol, do you guys all understand how probability works?

And you apparently missed my point. I'm not saying we have to WIN the lottery necessarily, I'm just saying that we SHOULDN'T get the worst mathematical pick either.

Post #6 » by **pillwenney** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 5:02 am

deNIEd wrote:Lol, do you guys all understand how probability works?

All?

ALL?!

But at least he essentially gets to play right in his own backyard.

So? That give no higher profits to the NBA. Lebron was going to take over whatever city he was in. The best case scenario would have been the biggest market possible.

Geoff35 · Post #7 » by **Geoff35** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 5:05 am

With the 3rd position locked up, the WORST pick we could get is 6th. 1-6 is up for grabs for us.

SacKingZZZ · Post #8 » by **SacKingZZZ** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 5:08 am

With the odds of dropping to 6th highly unlikely. Wait, I didn't just jinx us did I!? hehehe.

SacTownKings4Life · Post #9 » by **SacTownKings4Life** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 5:10 am

Geoff35 wrote:With the 3rd position locked up, the WORST pick we could get is 6th. 1-6 is up for grabs for us.

So with that in mind, I believe it will be complete GARBAGE if we end up with exactly the 6th pick "just because" it's the worst possible pick for us.

Post #10 » by **KingInExile** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 5:23 am

SacTownKings4Life wrote:
deNIEd wrote:Lol, do you guys all understand how probability works?

And you apparently missed my point. I'm not saying we have to WIN the lottery necessarily, I'm just saying that we SHOULDN'T get the worst mathematical pick either.

Actually, the team with the worst record has a higher mathematical probability of coming away with the 4th pick than any of the other top 3 picks. They only have a 25% chance of getting the 1st pick, but have a 36% chance of getting the 4th pick. In fact the 5 worst teams have a higher probability of landing in the 3-6 pick range than they do of ending up with a top 3 pick. Also, 4 of the last 5 years the draft was won by teams that had the 5th worst record or better.

rpa · Post #11 » by **rpa** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 5:32 am

Well....can't say I saw that coming. Even last night when I made a post about the odds for 3rd-5th I fully expected both the Warriors & Wizards to lose their games. For anyone who cares, here are our odds on a pick by pick basis (warning, it isn't too pretty):

1st: 15.6%
2nd: 15.7%
3rd: 15.6%
4th: 22.6%
5th: 26.5%
6th: 4%

That's right ladies and gentleman. We have more than a coin flips chance to be picking somewhere 4th-6th. Even uglier, we have a 3 in 10 chance of picking 5th or 6th.

Anyways, since we are the Kings, AND this is shaping up to be a 4 player draft, AND the odds are there.....I think you all know exactly what position we're going to be picking at.

My guess on ordering:
Warriors, Wolves, Wizards, Nets, Kings

Geoff35 · Post #12 » by **Geoff35** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 5:37 am

If karma exists in any form, we will be in the top 3

AnDrOiDKing4 · Post #13 » by **AnDrOiDKing4** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 5:51 am

Agreed even though we got Reke, we better getus up in the top 4, ill be ok with Washington getting front of us, along it the Warriors , I just want that to happen to piss their fans off lol

longfellow44 · Post #14 » by **longfellow44** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 7:03 am

I don't care How it works out as long as we have a top 4 pick. As it has been said before this is a 4 man draft and I think anyone of the top 4 would be a huge help. I'd be Ok with Wes Johnson at 5 but I don't think that he's in same league as the guys ahead of him. And if we fall to 6th we might as well take Aldrich because he's likely to do about as well as anyone that is left.

deNIEd · Post #15 » by **deNIEd** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 7:07 am

longfellow44 wrote:I don't care How it works out as long as we have a top 4 pick. As it has been said before this is a 4 man draft and I think anyone of the top 4 would be a huge help. I'd be Ok with Wes Johnson at 5 but I don't think that he's in same league as the guys ahead of him. And if we fall to 6th we might as well take Aldrich because he's likely to do about as well as anyone that is left.

This is a two man draft. Outside of the top two, there is a huggge talent drop. Only two players have superstar potential and will make any serious difference to our roster. Everyone else will be role players, oh, and there's the defensive specialist, but he's still very raw...but ya...two guys. Either #1 or #2 or bust....

_SRV_ · Post #16 » by **_SRV_** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 7:10 am

Other than the top 2, the 2 guys I like the most are cousins and Aldrich, and I'm not sure who I like more, this is similar to last year where outside of the 1st pick it was a crapshoot, and I actually wanted Evans and he wasn't very high on the board.
If the Kings aren't top 2, I don't think it matters where they fall.

AnDrOiDKing4 · Post #17 » by **AnDrOiDKing4** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 8:08 am

Hopefully we go big man, would love Favors or Cousins.

bjax24 · Post #18 » by **bjax24** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 8:42 am

I put the draft lottery in the same category as the loch ness monster and santa claus. that said, because of this, and the league not wanting to look bad, we'll be a top 3 pick.

darkadun · Post #19 » by **darkadun** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:06 pm

Yikes, whats up with all the negativty? We locked up the 3rd lottery spot. Its not like thats a bad thing. I'd say the odds of us getting in the top 4 are very high, and thats a very good thing. Anything can happen, I wouldn't assume we'll get screwed and get 5 or 6.

deNIEd · Post #20 » by **deNIEd** » Thu Apr 15, 2010 4:30 pm

darkadun wrote:Yikes, whats up with all the negativty? We locked up the 3rd lottery spot. Its not like thats a bad thing. I'd say the odds of us getting in the top 4 are very high, and thats a very good thing. Anything can happen, I wouldn't assume we'll get screwed and get 5 or 6.

Well, I was kinda being sarcastic...and wrote what almost everyone was saying last year about Griffin/Rubio...and look how that turned out.

No one knows about how the draft will turn out. At least none of us. I'm willing to bet that a player will be picked outside the top 5, and will be a top 3-5 player in the draft when its all said and done.

Just because we could potentially miss out on Wall/Turner/Cousins/Favors, doesn't necessarily mean we will miss out on a top 3 player in the draft.