Let Me Just Say This... (Lottery)

[bibby1023]

im hopping on the wesley johnson bandwagon!!!

[mobiuseinz]

The more stuff I read and watch on Favors, the more I like him... the big question on him is if he can hit the mid-range jumper and if he can become patient on offense and learn how to pass out of the double-team... if he learns to do those things, he is essentially Webber 2.0, because his athleticism is there, and his rebounding is there... he just needs to be polished and is very raw... but only 19 years old!

but what happens when we draft Favors... who goes? Landry, Thompson and Hawes all play the same positions. Maybe we win the lottery and we can have Wall... and the Nets get the #2 pick... would you guys trade the #1 pick and Thompson for the #2 and Lopez? Would the Nets even do it.... I mean Wall has been getting the same hype as LeBron and Oden.

[SacTownKings4Life]

Lol, do you guys all understand how probability works?

And you apparently missed my point. I'm not saying we have to WIN the lottery necessarily, I'm just saying that we SHOULDN'T get the worst mathematical pick either.

Actually, the team with the worst record has a higher mathematical probability of coming away with the 4th pick than any of the other top 3 picks. They only have a 25% chance of getting the 1st pick, but have a 36% chance of getting the 4th pick. In fact the 5 worst teams have a higher probability of landing in the 3-6 pick range than they do of ending up with a top 3 pick. Also, 4 of the last 5 years the draft was won by teams that had the 5th worst record or better.

You know, I never really understood that logic, considering theoretically the worst team is "supposed" to have the most ping pong balls entered into the lottery, and thus should have a slightly better chance in drawing the #1 pick than other teams. I mean, what on earth is the point in having the worst record if you are essentially being guaranteed NOT to get the #1 pick, or anything CLOSE to it?

[Krimzen]

I mean, what on earth is the point in having the worst record if you are essentially being guaranteed NOT to get the #1 pick, or anything CLOSE to it?

The NBA got sick of hearing accusations of teams intentionally tanking in order to secure the top pick, so the year after the Rockets were accused of tanking in order to get Olajuwon they came up with lottery. A single player can change the fate of a basketball franchise more than in most other sports. Most years the draft is a bit muddy, but some years you have a Lebron type of talent that can turn around your franchise.

That said, I have never liked the lottery system. If a team wants to intentionally tank its season, they should be allowed to do so. For every can't-miss prospect that changes a franchise there are many that fail, and in the meantime they hurt their own bottom line by losing. At the very least I think the lottery odds should be adjusted to reduce the chances of a team in the top-4 of the lottery dropping down.

[pillwenney]

Yikes, whats up with all the negativty? We locked up the 3rd lottery spot. Its not like thats a bad thing. I'd say the odds of us getting in the top 4 are very high, and thats a very good thing. Anything can happen, I wouldn't assume we'll get screwed and get 5 or 6.

Well, I was kinda being sarcastic...and wrote what almost everyone was saying last year about Griffin/Rubio...and look how that turned out.

No one knows about how the draft will turn out. At least none of us. I'm willing to bet that a player will be picked outside the top 5, and will be a top 3-5 player in the draft when its all said and done.

Just because we could potentially miss out on Wall/Turner/Cousins/Favors, doesn't necessarily mean we will miss out on a top 3 player in the draft.

All right. Who hijacked your account?

[deNIEd]

All right. Who hijacked your account?

Tyreke pwned me in the face
Curry pwned me in the face

Note about Curry,
JAN: 19.1 PPG / 4.4 RPG / 5.1 APG on .480 / .487 / .892
FEB: 21.5 PPG / 5.3 RPG / 7.3 APG on .467 / .347 / .902
MAR: 19.8 PPG / 4.3 RPG / 7.3 APG on .461 / .500 / .926
APR: 26.4 PPG / 6.4 RPG / 8.1 APG on .469 / .472 / .895

Post All-Star Break: 22.1 PPG / 5.5 RPG / 7.7 APG on .468 / .440 / .906

Imagine how crazy it would have been, if he started out the year a little bit stronger. He could have obtained 20/5/5 as well.

Tyreke
JAN: 20.7 PPG / 3.5 RPG / 5.1 APG on .448 / .250 / .824
FEB: 20.1 PPG / 5.8 RPG / 7.0 APG on .506 / .294 / .627
MAR: 19.4 PPG / 6.9 RPG / 7.5 APG on .423 / .267 / .718
APR: 19.5 PPG / 5.8 RPG / 5.3 APG on .443 / .200 / .750

Post All-Star Break: 19.8 PPG / 6.2 RPG / 6.9 APG / on .452 / .245 / .677


If we drafted Curry, I feel that he could have averaged 20/5/5 as well (our team would have been more focused around him and about him developing than GSW)


I used to think that I had a really good idea on how to gauge prospects...but I had no idea that Tyreke and Curry would both be so good.


This is why Petrie gets paid to watch people play basketball and I get paid to build bridges

[perezident]

Lol hey what is RGM's policies on advertising? lol Build bridges huh? Send me an invoice...I think we need a bridge here in the bahamas...linking all of our 300 island and cays

[RoyalCourtJestr]

I know there is a huge drop after 2, and I am hoping for a top 2 pick... it's just a shame that neither of those top 2 guys fits well with Tyreke (and thus our current squad).

Honestly, I'm hoping for Cousins, because we need a dominant big, hopefully hsi character issues aren't bad and he can work on becoming a good defender, AND he's big and tall enough to play both positions.

[ICMTM]

I'll reiterate...

The Kings get the 2nd pick, get Evan Turner...I'm dancing down Natomas Blvd.

[SacKingZZZ]

I know there is a huge drop after 2, and I am hoping for a top 2 pick... it's just a shame that neither of those top 2 guys fits well with Tyreke (and thus our current squad).

Honestly, I'm hoping for Cousins, because we need a dominant big, hopefully hsi character issues aren't bad and he can work on becoming a good defender, AND he's big and tall enough to play both positions.

He's just really immature. I've seen it more than a few times this last year. Not to scare anyone but think of a more angry Jason Thompson!

[sacking78]

Do you guys think Reke will represent us in the lottery? I say send him to the lottery.