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SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown (updated)

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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#61 » by Hendrix » Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:03 pm

RapsFanInVA wrote:
supersub15 wrote:
Eating a Book wrote:Ahaha! Supersub, you've opened the floodgates. You are the gatekeeper now. Withhold the information until they do your bidding.


Let me tell you, I'm like a kid in a candy shop. Just an amazing tool.

Apparently, 26 of the 30 NBA teams pay to use this website. Obviously, they get access to even more detailed info. But for me, this is manna from heaven... :D


I'd wager we are 1 of those 4 teams who don't use this site.

So all we need to do is find one of the other 3, if we want to trade Bargs, and any other Raps players that the site has an unfavourable view of.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#62 » by Spragga » Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:18 pm

raptorforlife88 wrote:Tell us. Just how bad is Jose defensively?


someone posted this on the general board. Dont know if its correct though

D-31 wrote:Bargnani doesn't seem that bad, ranked 260.

Calderon is terrible, ranked 402 PPP on defense. It's hilarious just watching him trying to defend when he's isolated. I almost feel sorry for him.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#63 » by guitarmanchu » Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:22 pm

I'm somewhat skeptical of this stat. While I personally think Bargnani is an embarassment on defense, so are his teammates. When one of the wings gets blown by, and Bargnani has to rotate to cut off the penetrator, that typically leaves his man open for the easy dish, which would skew this stat. I've seen that countless times over the season. I think this stat would be more balanced if we had adequate perimeter defenders, or at least half-decent help defenders.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#64 » by Undefeated » Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:23 pm

ponder276 wrote:You think of bigs who always step into the perfect spot in the paint at the perfect time, to close off any lane to the paint before the opponent can even think about driving (guys like Tim Duncan and KG do this incredibly well), Bargs is pretty much the exact opposite of that, almost never closing up the gaps in the defense, always a step late and having to try to recover and go for the block.


Agreed. But I do see one thing that Bargnani does well is that he does a good job of deflecting passes in the open space he leaves often initiating the fast break for the Raptors. Bargnani's anticipation where the ball will be swung is pretty good.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#65 » by DarkKnight » Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:31 pm

It would be interesting to see how they use the video clips to back up their interpretation of the plays. If its only man to man, but your teammate (lets say, your PG) cant stay in front of his man so you're always having to rotate, and your guy gets lots of open looks....does that go on you in a PPP sense?

Or when you have 2 bigs and they switch who they are guarding, either in between plays or especially during a play, do they always pin an y score on the right guy? What if you come over to help and force a miss, but no one rotates and your man gets a putback layup (a raptor specialty, not rotating to help the help defender)? Who is that on?

This is always going to be the problem with stats and basketball. You can interpret a single play 10 different ways. So even "raw data" can be terribly skewed depending on interpretation. Its a good starting point but you really need to watch plays develop to get a read on them.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#66 » by Harry Palmer » Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:41 pm

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What's sad is that we ALL know Bargs' help D is terrible, but now we're finding out that he is one of the worst man to man defenders as well?


The thing is, we're not just finding out.

It's been there to see all along.

The way the argument evolved was interesting to watch, but didn't actually mean anything. It went from his great potential to his Man D is better than his help D (true.) This was repeated so often it morphed into 'his Man D is average, his help D sucks/needs improvement'...which gradually became 'his man D is okay, his help D needs work'...then the halcyon days of 'his man D is among the best, his help D is just average'...and now it's sort of settled back at 'man D average/help D needs improvement'.

But the fact that these have been repeated so often by his/Raps fans does not and never has made them true.

Forget that it was discounted by what those of us less impressed with him saw...personal observations are unreliable in the extreme when unsupported/contradicted by objective data. What was consistent was the degree to which the less critical 'man d' take was refuted by whatever data there was. Always. Team was much worse with him on the floor than off, and it's not like he was being subbed by Deke. Opposing players always had big PER/etc. I remember creating a thread way back asking people to observe the trend that mediocre 5's would be go to guys against us to start games...guys like Perkins and Gasol (as he was at the time) etc. would e 4 of 5 in the first quarter, with fouls drawn, etc. until we'd adjust, open the middle, and it would start raining.

And after my thread it happened in the next 5 or 6 games, and many people either ignored it or chalked it up to bad support/fluke shots...'they just made tough shots', etc.

And it always comes back to the same arguments:

*the data is biased against Bargs
*those compiling the data are biased against Bargs
*those quoting the data are biased against Bargs
*Bargs teammates/coaches failed to support him properly, making him look worse defensively than he is.
*some sample of a few plays or games or weeks somehow was more representative of reality than the whole.

...or, my personal favorite, 'You're obsessed with stats. Try watching the game."

The latter, of course, assuming that people who support their opinions with data have no opinions outside data. Inverted logic. And ridiculous. Of course there are times when data fails as a complete argument. Often. But to suggest you can consistently contradict it by virtue of 'watching games' is silly, and incredibly open to bias. It's an empty argument.

"Mugsy Bogues is better post player than Shaq."

My statement. Any data you raise to disprove it will be met with rolled eyes and an appeal for you to watch more games and not rely on stats to tell you what's what. Any observation about accomplishments likewise, with caveats about how Bogues was misused by his coaches, and not fed the ball enough in the post by his jealous teammates.

See how easy it is?

It's a non-argument.

But I imagine this latest data about Bargs will follow the same pattern. Those who already knew will not be al that affected by confirmation, and those who have succeeded thus far in turning a blind eye will continue to do so by the same means.

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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#67 » by Kurtz » Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:49 pm

Sigh...

Super, can you post the stats of that defensive wunderkind, Rudy Gay?
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#68 » by Harry Palmer » Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:59 pm

Kurtz wrote:Sigh...

Super, can you post the stats of that defensive wunderkind, Rudy Gay?


Or those posts claiming same?

Or a picture of a strawman?
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#69 » by supersub15 » Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:01 pm

OK, I'm back.

Some more info:
Rudy Gay 0.84 (rank: 62).

I watched some videos linked to some of the stats, and it seems that they count the switches (for example, on one play, Bargnani was switched on Mo Williams, and he was late contesting a Mo 3-pointer). Also, they count against and for him stops/makes on zone defence where he's supposed to rotate to a player.

I haven't been able to see any videos of weakside rotations yet. I'll keep digging.

By the way, both Jarret Jack and Jose Calderon are equally bad at 1.01 PPP (both ranked 376).
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#70 » by Zuul » Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:02 pm

"52 3's from Bargnani's assignment?? I don't remember those"

I was at one of the home games against Boston (when CB4 was out). Rasheed Wallace hit at least 5 three's right in Bargnani's face. So that one game alone accounts for at least 10% of those 3's. I don't think this number has anything to do with switches on PNR's.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#71 » by Zuul » Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:04 pm

"52 3's from Bargnani's assignment?? I don't remember those"

I was at one of the home games against Boston (when CB4 was out). Rasheed Wallace hit at least 5 three's right in Bargnani's face. So that one game alone accounts for at least 10% of those 3's. I don't think this number has anything to do with switches on PNR's.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#72 » by Harry Palmer » Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:09 pm

supersub15 wrote:OK, I'm back.

Some more info:
Rudy Gay 0.84 (rank: 62).


The thing is, supe, this won't register. Nor will the fact that the Grizz gave up fewer pts with Gay playing than sitting (as opposed to 8.5 (!!) pts/more) Or rebounded better on defense (as opposed to worse) or forced more turnovers while fouling less (as opposed to not) etc. etc. It's a strawman, easily replaced by another. The essential point about strawmen isn't what they reveal, it's what they seek to avoid being revealed.

IOW, non-starter once someone sighs and goes there. They aren't looking for truth, they are seeking to avoid it.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#73 » by Fairview4Life » Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:09 pm

supersub15 wrote:I watched some videos linked to some of the stats, and it seems that they count the switches (for example, on one play, Bargnani was switched on Mo Williams, and he was late contesting a Mo 3-pointer). Also, they count against and for him stops/makes on zone defence where he's supposed to rotate to a player.


They have a billion categories. Seems odd that isn't one of them and it gets lumped into the "Bargs' man" category.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#74 » by hkr » Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:11 pm

Harry Palmer wrote:
supersub15 wrote:OK, I'm back.

Some more info:
Rudy Gay 0.84 (rank: 62).


The thing is, supe, this won't register. Nor will the fact that the Grizz gave up fewer pts with Gay playing than sitting (as opposed to 8.5 (!!) pts/more) Or rebounded better on defense (as opposed to worse) or forced more turnovers while fouling less (as opposed to not) etc. etc. It's a strawman, easily replaced by another. The essential point about strawmen isn't what they reveal, it's what they seek to avoid being revealed.

IOW, non-starter once someone sighs and goes there. They aren't looking for truth, they are seeking to avoid it.


But it also has to be mentioned that most numbers indicate Gay is, at best, an average player.

edit: but either way there's really no point of arguing over Gay's performance... it's a Bargs thread and Gay is no PF! Now only if we can play Bargs at SF...
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#75 » by Avenger » Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:12 pm

Harry Palmer wrote:The thing is, supe, this won't register. Nor will the fact that the Grizz gave up fewer pts with Gay playing than sitting (as opposed to 8.5 (!!) pts/more)

right
http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers. ... C&team=MEM
No one on that team plays any resemblance of defence except for Marc Gasol(by far and away their best player) and Hasheem Thabeet.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#76 » by Schad » Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:12 pm

Harry Palmer wrote:The thing is, supe, this won't register. Nor will the fact that the Grizz gave up fewer pts with Gay playing than sitting (as opposed to 8.5 (!!) pts/more) Or rebounded better on defense (as opposed to worse) or forced more turnovers while fouling less (as opposed to not) etc. etc. It's a strawman, easily replaced by another. The essential point about strawmen isn't what they reveal, it's what they seek to avoid being revealed.


No quibble with the overall argument (Gay's defense was considerably better this year than last, and it showed in their overall results), but basketballvalue has the Grizzlies' defense at 0.38 points/100 better when he isn't out there, and their defensive rebounding at the break-even mark. Not that it's a black mark, as the Grizzlies have a fairly decent defensive bench.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#77 » by Indeed » Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:13 pm

Zuul wrote:"52 3's from Bargnani's assignment?? I don't remember those"

I was at one of the home games against Boston (when CB4 was out). Rasheed Wallace hit at least 5 three's right in Bargnani's face. So that one game alone accounts for at least 10% of those 3's. I don't think this number has anything to do with switches on PNR's.


Probably not, but his perimeter D against bigs are weaker. He allows them to shot over him, and shed contact from time to time.

He is good at post defense, which is his main opponent, so he is above average at the moment.
However, if he moves to PF, he needs to improve his perimeter D, and don't allow them to shot over him (slightly below average on guarding PF). But I don't think there is many good perimeter D bigs (Diaw is one)
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#78 » by Fairview4Life » Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:16 pm

Avenger wrote:http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2009-2010&mode=summary&sortnumber=85&sortorder=DESC&team=MEM


That's weird, that seems to indicate the Grizzlies defense was better, marginally, with Gay on the bench.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#79 » by Harry Palmer » Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:16 pm

hkr wrote:
Harry Palmer wrote:
supersub15 wrote:OK, I'm back.

Some more info:
Rudy Gay 0.84 (rank: 62).


The thing is, supe, this won't register. Nor will the fact that the Grizz gave up fewer pts with Gay playing than sitting (as opposed to 8.5 (!!) pts/more) Or rebounded better on defense (as opposed to worse) or forced more turnovers while fouling less (as opposed to not) etc. etc. It's a strawman, easily replaced by another. The essential point about strawmen isn't what they reveal, it's what they seek to avoid being revealed.

IOW, non-starter once someone sighs and goes there. They aren't looking for truth, they are seeking to avoid it.


But it also has to be mentioned that most numbers indicate Gay is, at best, an average player.


Depends on your view of both aspect (him and average). Unlike having 20 ppg potential, he already has a 20 ppg resume under his belt, often in the face of much stiffer defensive attention than Bargs sees unless Bosh is hurt.

But by virtually any rubric, he's better, younger, and a better fit for us than Bargs.
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Re: SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown 

Post#80 » by kyphi » Tue Apr 20, 2010 8:18 pm

How in the heck did this turn into a Rudy Gay thread?

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