Official "Ask Jeff Risdon a question" thread

[daddyfivestar]

Jeff,
Saw in your 25 predictions you think the Vikings will not pick in the 1st round?

How far back do you think they'll drop back and why?


Thanks in advance.
d5s

[Icness]

Jeff,
Saw in your 25 predictions you think the Vikings will not pick in the 1st round?

How far back do you think they'll drop back and why?


Thanks in advance.
d5s

The people I've talked to in Minny believe (I agree too) that any player they can get at #40 is the same quality they can get at #30, and they have no real pressing needs. There are some players they like: McCourty, Gresham, Brian Price, Iupati--that they would be happy to take at 30, but they would just as soon drop back, pick up an extra 3rd or 4th rounder, and take Daryl Washington or Donald Butler or Terrence Cody in the 40s. From what I've heard they are big Butler fans but he'll still be around to at least #45 and they want to maximize value. The final mock I'm doing has Butler at #71 and I sort of forced him in there; he's rated a 4th rounder by the team I'm consulting with.

[Icness]

Any legs to the rumor of the Niners trading up for Clausen? Seems strange since they have some seriously pressing needs at OL and could use a difference maker on defense at rush LB or cornerback.

My dream would be them to deal for Roethlisberger, with this just posturing to get PIT to bite on a deal for #13 plus some mid-round picks, but I guess thats just fantasy talk right now.

Also, anything going on with Jared Gaither trade talks?

I've seen that speculation about Clausen and honestly I don't know whether to believe it or not. It wouldn't surprise me at all, let me put it that way. There's also the angle that it's Clausen's people trying to build hype that he's sure to go above #13. That is for you conspiracy theorists

I will be absolutely shocked if PIT trades Big Ben, and I really don't see Singletary having any interest in that type of "character" on his team.

SF is in kind of a grey area regarding the OL. Bulaga, Williams, and Okung will all be long gone--none last past #9, I'll guarantee that. Iupati will be there probably at #17 too, but is it worth it to take a guard that doesn't pass block real well that high? Is Anthony Davis worth the risk of his well-chronicled laziness (think Alex Barron)? Saffold, Brown, and Campbell are all reaches even at #17. Pouncey would be okay at 17 but the Niners are fine at center, and moving positions is always tricky when you have such a lead-pipe lock stud at the original spot. That's why I think they're doing this: Joe Haden at #13, Kyle Wilson if he's gone and thenk from #17 into the low 20s and take Brown or either McCoy or Tebow. They shouldn't have a problem getting a taker for #17 and can pick up an extra pick or two, depending on how far they want to drop back.

Just a general rule of thumb for all teams: It is very difficult to move more than 5 slots one way or the other. Even though the draft value chart is antiquated and IMO full of crap, a lot of GMs still believe in it and the points assigned to picks. When you want to go from, say #11 to #4, the value chart says you need to give a 2nd and a 4th. That's a steep price, and also the team moving down has totally altered their draft and has to work overtime to figure out what to do with those new picks. That is mitigated this year somewhat by the 3 day affair, but it's still incredibly stressful as much as it is awesome to get extra picks. There is pressure to make up for the lost value of the higher pick and teams hate to see that player become great--think St. Louis trading the pick that became Jay Cutler and they got Tye Hill and Claude Wroten for it. People get fired when stuff like that happens and I don't think most fans give that enough thought when they go on and on about wanting to trade down--sometimes it backfires. Big time.

[Icness]

Some Wed. morning rumor-mongering:

--expect Baltimore to trade Willis McGahee to Detroit for a 4th rounder and a swap of 7ths. The Lions really do not want to take a RB with their 2nd round pick, despite what most mocks tell you.

--Marshawn Lynch will not be in Buffalo past Friday, and he could be headed to Houston. The Bills people I've talked to all seem to indicate the team feels a lot better about their offensive tackle situation than reports would have you believe, i.e. don't expect a tackle in the 1st or 2nd rounds

--I put it at 50/50 that Earl Thomas gets drafted before Eric Berry. If Berry doesn't go to Cleveland at #7 he could fall to SF at #13, which would push Joe Haden to at least Pittsburgh's pick.

--The clubhouse leader for Jared Gaither is the Cowboys, but if the Redskins pass on Flozell Adams and deal out of #4 (and they might!) they have to be considered the most likely destination, using the extra pick from dealing #4 to get Gaither. I've talked to a couple of different teams about Gaither and he's viewed as a bigger risk than most fans like to believe. When Ozzie Newsome gives up on a young talent, it's for a damn good reason--and that perception is held strongly around the league. Consider it a victim of Ozzie being great as his job.

Buzzing up: Jerry Hughes, Devin McCourty, Terrence Cody, Chris Cook, Mike Kafka--who could (gulp) be a late 3rd rounder
Buzzing down: Carlos Dunlap (might fall to the 3rd), Sergio Kindle (Hughes will go before him), and pretty much all wide receivers. It could be another draft where none go in the top 20 and no more than 3 go in the first two rounds, too much superior talent at other positions.

[Rafael122]

Brandon Spikes? Odds that he might be there in the 4th round?

[Icness]

Brandon Spikes? Odds that he might be there in the 4th round?

Very good. He's slower than 70% of the tackles in this draft and that shows up on tape too. Tis better to be small than slow!

[Liqourish]

Some Wed. morning rumor-mongering:

--expect Baltimore to trade Willis McGahee to Detroit for a 4th rounder and a swap of 7ths. The Lions really do not want to take a RB with their 2nd round pick, despite what most mocks tell you .

I would actually really like this move.

[Cohiba13]

Hey Jeff,

I saw in your 25 predictions article that if you were the Bengals you would pull the trigger on a trade for Jason Campbell. Are you down on Palmer?

[Rafael122]

More like the Bengals don't have a backup.

[B Mac]

--I put it at 50/50 that Earl Thomas gets drafted before Eric Berry. If Berry doesn't go to Cleveland at #7 he could fall to SF at #13, which would push Joe Haden to at least Pittsburgh's pick.

Can you elaborate on this?

Most Browns fans would kill to have Berry on the board at 7. If he was there I would think the Browns would have to take him. I figured he would go 5th or 6th either to those teams or with a trade. Do you really see him dropping, and to 13 at that?

[Icness]

--I put it at 50/50 that Earl Thomas gets drafted before Eric Berry. If Berry doesn't go to Cleveland at #7 he could fall to SF at #13, which would push Joe Haden to at least Pittsburgh's pick.

Can you elaborate on this?

Most Browns fans would kill to have Berry on the board at 7. If he was there I would think the Browns would have to take him. I figured he would go 5th or 6th either to those teams or with a trade. Do you really see him dropping, and to 13 at that?

Thomas might go to SEA at #6, or to a team trading in to get him ahead of Cleveland at #7. I do think the Browns are going to take Berry--though it might not be at #7 but rather a couple spots later. That 7-12 range sure seems ripe for a lot of deals

[RiotPunch]

Hey Jeff. If the Packers were to try to flip AJ Hawk for a pick, what type of value would he bring back?... if anything.

[snazel]

What is going on with the fall of Berry?? It seems as though some have Thomas ranked higher, and Berry slotting anywhere from 7-13. It wasn't too long ago that he was considered the #1 BPA in the draft by a few of the draft experts out there...

[Goon_Slapper]

--Marshawn Lynch will not be in Buffalo past Friday, and he could be headed to Houston. The Bills people I've talked to all seem to indicate the team feels a lot better about their offensive tackle situation than reports would have you believe, i.e. don't expect a tackle in the 1st or 2nd rounds

I don't mind the Bills trading Lynch away to Houston (I live there, and it would help the Texans out a lot), but I doubt they get much in return, since he is 1 strike away from a full year suspension.

Do you think that D. Bell is their LT, or are they confident in getting one in later rounds?

I'm scared of who the Bill will draft. They have too many needs, and I can see them drafting BPA (Spiller, Bryant, etc), which isn't necessarily bad, but when you have so many holes, it might not be a good thing. If the Bills trade up to the late first to draft Tebow, I don't know what I'll do. I may have to renounce my fan allegiance to the Bills and start routing for the Texans. I'll be sick if that happens. (I grew up in Seattle so I've already had to change my allegiance from the Sonics to the Rockets a few years ago, so I guess I don't mind doing it for football).

ETA...thanks for all the info Icness. You are awesome!!!

[Smooth32]

How sure are you Eric Berry falls to the Browns?

[Ong_dynasty]

All I want for the draft is one of Thomas, Berry or Wilson going to the eagles..if we can get 2..great!

[Icness]

I don't mind the Bills trading Lynch away to Houston (I live there, and it would help the Texans out a lot), but I doubt they get much in return, since he is 1 strike away from a full year suspension.

Do you think that D. Bell is their LT, or are they confident in getting one in later rounds?

No fresh info on Lynch other than they are very much shopping him. I would guess a 5th just because of what you mentioned and the fact every coach he's ever had has badmouthed him.

I know Chan Gailey likes Bell, but I doubt they would pass on taking a G/T type sometime Sat. They are big Zane Beadles fans, though I most certainly am not. I have not heard anything recent on the progress of the OL they took in the 1st last year who tore up his knee, that could factor into it.

How sure are you Eric Berry falls to the Browns?

Very dependant upon Washington at #4. If they take Trent Williams, and it sure looks like they are, Berry will be there at 7. If they take Okung then KC is in play for Berry...or Philly trading up. I think the connections between Philly and Cleveland in the front offices make a deal between them likely.

Hey Jeff. If the Packers were to try to flip AJ Hawk for a pick, what type of value would he bring back?... if anything.

Just a guess, but something in the 80-100 range. I see it being more of a "we'll give you this pick and Hawk" to move up in the 2nd. Haven't heard him being shopped but I certainly don't claim to know all...

[Icness]

Some rumors and talks I've heard today:

--NYG will trade Umenyiora & 15 to the Jaguars to move up and get McClain. I have heard that from way too many sources for there not to be fire to the smoke. Jags would take JPP if they can't move down further, which I'm assured they want to.

--I know people in WAS who believe they have a taker for Haynesworth and that they will also move out of #4. Denver is my best guess (and it's a guess!) at trading up to #4, but IMO they have no use for Haynesworth. I do not buy the Haynesworth to DET talk. As an aside on that, the Lions are very aware that if they don't take Suh the fans are going to revolt.

I've seen the reports y'all have about WAS trying to move up. I wouldn't be shocked but I don't see it happening.

--Dez Bryant and really all of the WRs are impossible to forecast. Bryant could go as high as #8, could fall all the way to the mid-20s if a few things play out. D. Thomas could go in the early teens, could fall to 40. One pick to lock in assuming they don't move: Denver taking Benn with one of their 2nds, if he's still even there...which I kinda doubt.

--Darren McFadden can be had for a high 3rd...but I'm not sure anyone will give that for him. He still has yet to break a tackle in the NFL.

--Glenn Dorsey can be had for a 2nd. I expect him to be dealt before Friday night.

--Minny signing Lito Sheppard ensures to me they are trading out of #30 and that Tebow or Colt McCoy will be the #30 pick.

--If you are one of the scores of people sending me emails, please identify yourself as to who you are on the boards. I'll be more prompt in getting back and respect your desire for privacy on here.

--I won't be in the chat tonight but I hope to be on here after the draft. I'll try to be in the chat Friday.

[MadCityBucky]

Guesses on where Sergio kindle, Jerry Hughes goes? A lot of mocks have Packers taking Hughes, Anthony Davis or Charles Brown.

Could you see the Packers taking Dez if he's there at 23?

[Ong_dynasty]

I know all the talks of Bradford to the Rams. But if it is so certain why have they not started negotiating salaries?
Well we shall know in a few hours!