SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown (updated)

[Sister]

What is interesting to me is that despite these absolute rankings and PPP's, the majority, I doubt;, would be statistically significant if they were modeled.

I have not read this whole thread but has someone actually calculated what, say, a 0.05 PPP (the difference between Bogut and Bargs, for instance) actually amounts to in terms of points in a typical game?

How many FGA involve the center defending his man, as implied by this data? I have no clue -- is it 20 to 25% of all FGA in a game? So what, maybe 20 FGA.

Does the math work this way (20 FGA * 0.05 PPP) = 1 PPP difference? If so, is this even worth talking about? That's a negligible difference in outcome.

Or do I have it all wrong?

[Guy Smiley]

Can anyone come up with any player that has shown such little effort and yet garner the same amount of support as IL MAGO?

It is disgraceful that pansy like him doesn't get run out of this league. The guy has been given every opportunity to succeed including his own raw talent and yet it all wastes away. It is one thing to throw your own potential away but when it has such a dramatic effect on others it is a real shame.

[jrsmith]

People are getting way too serious about this, lets remember its just basketball and just an online forum. With that said, never have I seen more effort put into supporting a scrub. I am actually sitting here typing this and laughing at how attached afew people on this forum have grown to andrea bargnani. He is doing Italy proud.

[Tommy Gun]

Look, at this point there are 5-10 people who are able to delude themselves and ignore every single measurable out there that shows that Bargs is an utter disaster on defense. It takes quite the effort to do that. I mean, you might as well go argue with the the flat earth society.

[Reignman]

I love the marvelous job the nuthuggers have done of derailing this thread. I mean, you can't make any factual statements that would put Bargs in a good light defensively so let's do everything we can to deflect criticism.

Back to the facts:

- Bargs is a piss poor rebounder
- Bargs is a piss poor help defender
- Bargs is a sub par man defender
- Bargs so called "improvements" are more a product of increased minutes than actual improvement, especially when you consider it's taken him 4 years to get to where he is
- Empirical evidence suggests he's terrible on defense and his learning curve is that of a mentally challenged brick (statistical evidence backs this as well)
- He's lazy and unfocused (as per Bargs)

This guy is barely a starting calibre player so I don't get why some of you are being goaded into giving him props for some really pathetic achievments. Even on offense, you expect big men to shoot a high percentage and he's not even top 3 on THIS team. He doesn't draw fouls and can barely create his own shot.

Not one person on this board can give a valid reason why anyone should be excited about Bargs. You can take his rookie numbers and extrapolate them to his minutes this season and statistically he's the same mediocre player who has added a bit of a post game.

So he can take smaller guys in the post now, big **** whoop, 4 years for that and we're supposed to be jumping for joy? Honestly, on any other team Bargnani would be relegated to Ryan Anderson status. Small contract / small role off the bench to come in and give the defense a different look.

But yeah, we should expect massive improvement next season and beyond for some (Please Use More Appropriate Word) reason that isn't backed by his past learning curve or any factual evidence.

Next season will be great and I'll make a prediction. If Bosh leaves, Bargnani will bomb away at will. He'll probably put up 20 pts on terrible efficiency while we lose all kinds of games. His defense will continue to be ****. The fanboys will then preach how his "offense easily offsets his defense" and they'll blame his teammates for not being good enough (this will be particularly funny because they'd never offer Bosh that leeway). They'll say he needs a defensive/rebounding C next to him to succeed (LOL!), without realizing that the only guy that can mask such a weak player would be D12. Then at some point, the fans will wake up and Bargs will start getting boo'd just like Jose Calderon. At that point, maybe just maybe the organization will finally decide to cut ties with this bum.

Bargnani is barely a starter in this league, nobody should feel bad for stating this. He'll have to improve at a rate that not only has he never displayed himself, but a rate that very few players ever improve at after age 24/25. You can bend / twist / outright lie, but the facts speak for themselves.

Soon to be 5 wasted years for a guy that's ultimately going to be a specialist-type bench player on a different team. Awesome!

[strangespot]

Look, at this point there are 5-10 people who are able to delude themselves and ignore every single measurable out there that shows that Bargs is an utter disaster on defense. It takes quite the effort to do that. I mean, you might as well go argue with the the flat earth society.

I also think that Bargs is a very bad defender, no way of denying it (even though i still think his man to man D is quite ok on points allowed on pure post-ups).

But you know what makes me smile reading all the negative comments about BArgs ? it is that, if we say based on those stats SS has provided that Bargs is a really bad defensively, than what are i.e. Amir, Jack, Calderon of whom we know they rank worse (and even much worse...) ? would want to see where guys like Hedo and DD rank as well, and I dont know why but I got the feeling they're also worse than Bargs'.

[AfricanSensation]

People are getting way too serious about this, lets remember its just basketball and just an online forum. With that said, never have I seen more effort put into supporting a scrub. I am actually sitting here typing this and laughing at how attached afew people on this forum have grown to andrea bargnani. He is doing Italy proud.

Well outside from this forum, most Italians I know actually think he is a scrub. They are way higher on Gallinari and have been for years. I often go to Rome as my parents have been livng there for 15 years. Most real bball fans there don't have a high opinion of him, the guy has been playing like crap for the Italian team too which is probably not helping his cause...

[mini]

What is interesting to me is that despite these absolute rankings and PPP's, the majority, I doubt;, would be statistically significant if they were modeled.

I have not read this whole thread but has someone actually calculated what, say, a 0.05 PPP (the difference between Bogut and Bargs, for instance) actually amounts to in terms of points in a typical game?

How many FGA involve the center defending his man, as implied by this data? I have no clue -- is it 20 to 25% of all FGA in a game? So what, maybe 20 FGA.

Does the math work this way (20 FGA * 0.05 PPP) = 1 PPP difference? If so, is this even worth talking about? That's a negligible difference in outcome.

Or do I have it all wrong?

This is a question I have as well. Has this been answered previously?

What is the on-court/scoreboard difference between Barg's PPP of 0.92 vs. a Noah PPP of 0.89 or even a Howard of 0.82? I know it is impossible to give an accurate number, but are we talking a difference of 2 points per game or 15 points per game? Maybe some of the stat-head (SS) could help out. Again, I know it doesn't include help defense - which Bargs is terrible at.

[Harry Palmer]

I often go to Rome as my parents have been livng there for 15 years...

Not sure if you remember this, but we previously discussed your parents adopting me, and I'm pretty much on board at this point.

Va bene?

[supersub15]

This is a question I have as well. Has this been answered previously?

What is the on-court/scoreboard difference between Barg's PPP of 0.92 vs. a Noah PPP of 0.89 or even a Howard of 0.82? I know it is impossible to give an accurate number, but are we talking a difference of 2 points per game or 15 points per game? Maybe some of the stat-head (SS) could help out. Again, I know it doesn't include help defense - which Bargs is terrible at.

Basic calculations show that Dwight is about 4 points per game better, while Noah is about 3 points better.

[Fairview4Life]

This is a question I have as well. Has this been answered previously?

What is the on-court/scoreboard difference between Barg's PPP of 0.92 vs. a Noah PPP of 0.89 or even a Howard of 0.82? I know it is impossible to give an accurate number, but are we talking a difference of 2 points per game or 15 points per game? Maybe some of the stat-head (SS) could help out. Again, I know it doesn't include help defense - which Bargs is terrible at.

Basic calculations show that Dwight is about 4 points per game better, while Noah is about 3 points better.

So does that mean both Bargs and Noah face the same number of possessions a game, and fewer possessions for Dwight?

[AfricanSensation]

Molto bene Harry lol

[supersub15]

This is a question I have as well. Has this been answered previously?

What is the on-court/scoreboard difference between Barg's PPP of 0.92 vs. a Noah PPP of 0.89 or even a Howard of 0.82? I know it is impossible to give an accurate number, but are we talking a difference of 2 points per game or 15 points per game? Maybe some of the stat-head (SS) could help out. Again, I know it doesn't include help defense - which Bargs is terrible at.

Basic calculations show that Dwight is about 4 points per game better, while Noah is about 3 points better.

So does that mean both Bargs and Noah face the same number of possessions a game, and fewer possessions for Dwight?

7.27 man-to-man possessions per game for Dwight Howard
7.69 man-to-man possessions per game for Joakim Noah
9.35 man-to-man possessions per game for Andrea Bargnani

[Shaazzam]

I know my plan wouldn't be to post up the guy being guarded by Howard.

[Fairview4Life]

7.27 man-to-man possessions per game for Dwight Howard
7.69 man-to-man possessions per game for Joakim Noah
9.35 man-to-man possessions per game for Andrea Bargnani

So Dwight is 5.96 actual points per game against, Noah is 6.84 actual points per game against, and Bargs is 8.6 actual points per game against. That's not 3 points and 4 points better. That's Noah giving up 1.76 points less per game than Bargs and Howard giving up 2.64 less points per game than Bargs, on man to man coverage, including when they are the closest guys in a zone and when there's a switch.

What did I do wrong?

[dacrusha]

So he can take smaller guys in the post now, big **** whoop, 4 years for that and we're supposed to be jumping for joy? Honestly, on any other team Bargnani would be relegated to Ryan Anderson status. Small contract / small role off the bench to come in and give the defense a different look.

Makes you wonder: if Bargs was drafted around where Anderson was drafted (21st overall) would he still be a starter right now... or would he be a perpetual bench scrub ala Joey Graham?

Says here, he'd be 'maybe' a first big off the bench, getting 14-16 minutes a night.

[Sister]

And returning to my point above, I doubt any of the centers ranked from say 10-50 are statistically different from one another in terms of their defensive impact on PPP from there non-help defense.

Yes, there has to be a ranking of players defensive impact, as SS provided, but whether this amounts to substantial tangible differences in points and on the game is another question altogether. I mean, should a 1.6 points per game difference between Noah and Bargs, for instance, be something that we are concerned about? I have no clue.

And no, I'm not a Bargs nut bagger -- I quite vehemently opposed drafting him.

[supersub15]

And returning to my point above, I doubt any of the centers ranked from say 10-50 are statistically different from one another in terms of their defensive impact on PPP from there non-help defense.

Yes, there has to be a ranking of players defensive impact, as SS provided, but whether this amounts to substantial tangible differences in points and on the game is another question altogether. I mean, should a 1.6 points per game difference between Noah and Bargs, for instance, be something that we are concerned about? I have no clue.

And no, I'm not a Bargs nut bagger -- I quite vehemently opposed drafting him.

This is 1.6 points only on man-to-man. The Raptors as a whole are the worst defensive team on cuts to the baskets where the C is the last line of defence.

[isyed]

And returning to my point above, I doubt any of the centers ranked from say 10-50 are statistically different from one another in terms of their defensive impact on PPP from there non-help defense.

Yes, there has to be a ranking of players defensive impact, as SS provided, but whether this amounts to substantial tangible differences in points and on the game is another question altogether. I mean, should a 1.6 points per game difference between Noah and Bargs, for instance, be something that we are concerned about? I have no clue.

And no, I'm not a Bargs nut bagger -- I quite vehemently opposed drafting him.

This is 1.6 points only on man-to-man. The Raptors as a whole are the worst defensive team on cuts to the baskets where the C is the last line of defence.

Also the number of possessions also show how much teams prefer attacking him as opposed to other big men on the team. Compared to Dwight and Noah who teams know are good defenders and hence don't attack as much either.

[Ripp]

And returning to my point above, I doubt any of the centers ranked from say 10-50 are statistically different from one another in terms of their defensive impact on PPP from there non-help defense.

Yes, there has to be a ranking of players defensive impact, as SS provided, but whether this amounts to substantial tangible differences in points and on the game is another question altogether. I mean, should a 1.6 points per game difference between Noah and Bargs, for instance, be something that we are concerned about? I have no clue.

And no, I'm not a Bargs nut bagger -- I quite vehemently opposed drafting him.

This is 1.6 points only on man-to-man. The Raptors as a whole are the worst defensive team on cuts to the baskets where the C is the last line of defence.

As a general point...one thing I've noticed about basketball is that seemingly small differences have a huge impact. Like, there is an enormous gap between a guy who averages 12 rebounds per game and another who averages 10. Like, you almost want to think of this 2 rebound difference as have some sort of exponential effect on the team, rather than just a linear one.

I suspect something similar holds for some of these other statistics...they might be just the tip of the iceberg.