SoTD: Bargnani's defensive breakdown (updated)

[Double Helix]

I think the Bargs bashing/defending has been discussed enough.

Let's talk some more about the stats SS shared and some of the most interesting reveals here. Also, and this has nothing to do with Andrea but let's discuss some of the potential reasons why some of these people are ranked where they are. Discussing these things will help us better analyze these numbers so that people don't suddenly start claiming that Joel Anthony would be a better player on this team than some of the other far better players ranked below him.

As SS clearly pointed out, these numbers include bench and role players and these two types of players play less minutes and go head-to-head often against inferior competition than centers.

It's also fairly clear that overall team defence (like most defensive stats) plays a huge part in these rankings. Now, the flip side to this point is that a good center can help anchor a defensive unit. I'd like to think that it's a bit of column A and B because if the entire team sucks on defence and the center is consistently out of position to help out then he's going to be late and sloppy doing some of the things a more sound defensive unit with an actual game plan might be. Teams that work together defensively as a unit trying to funnel players certain ways benefit from their teammates.

This was a really interesting stat, as all SS's stats are but I really hope nobody takes these numbers as gospel of any one thing in particular. Synergy Sports is more advanced than most defensive stats but there are still things we need to consider when using these stats to prove our respective points.

[Indeed]

And returning to my point above, I doubt any of the centers ranked from say 10-50 are statistically different from one another in terms of their defensive impact on PPP from there non-help defense.

Yes, there has to be a ranking of players defensive impact, as SS provided, but whether this amounts to substantial tangible differences in points and on the game is another question altogether. I mean, should a 1.6 points per game difference between Noah and Bargs, for instance, be something that we are concerned about? I have no clue.

And no, I'm not a Bargs nut bagger -- I quite vehemently opposed drafting him.

This is 1.6 points only on man-to-man. The Raptors as a whole are the worst defensive team on cuts to the baskets where the C is the last line of defence.

Also the number of possessions also show how much teams prefer attacking him as opposed to other big men on the team. Compared to Dwight and Noah who teams know are good defenders and hence don't attack as much either.

Or how often we switched our guards/wings with him, or he got lost in the rotation and forced to take the guards/wings. (I guess half and half for both)

Anyway, does the stats include contesting 3pts at the corner? If Noah and Howard never run out to contest those shots, while Bargnani went up there, would Bargnani counts those 3pts made/missed?

[Indeed]

I think the Bargs bashing/defending has been discussed enough.

Let's talk some more about the stats SS shared and some of the most interesting reveals here. Also, and this has nothing to do with Andrea but let's discuss some of the potential reasons why some of these people are ranked where they are. Discussing these things will help us better analyze these numbers so that people don't suddenly start claiming that Joel Anthony would be a better player on this team than some of the other far better players ranked below him.

As SS clearly pointed out, these numbers include bench and role players and these two types of players play less minutes and go head-to-head often against inferior competition than centers.

It's also fairly clear that overall team defence (like most defensive stats) plays a huge part in these rankings. Now, the flip side to this point is that a good center can help anchor a defensive unit. I'd like to think that it's a bit of column A and B because if the entire team sucks on defence and the center is consistently out of position to help out then he's going to be late and sloppy doing some of the things a more sound defensive unit with an actual game plan might be. Teams that work together defensively as a unit trying to funnel players certain ways benefit from their teammates.

This was a really interesting stat, as all SS's stats are but I really hope nobody takes these numbers as gospel of any one thing in particular. Synergy Sports is more advanced than most defensive stats but there are still things we need to consider when using these stats to prove our respective points.

I think so too, I am waiting for SS to provide more on Weems and Wright.
Should we keep Weems in the future as he is an expiring. Which position he is best defending against (I am assuming it is PG and SG, small SF is alright, but not big SF).
And should we resign Wright, he seems to be a great defender. Is he the lock down that can help us in the long run?

[isyed]

And returning to my point above, I doubt any of the centers ranked from say 10-50 are statistically different from one another in terms of their defensive impact on PPP from there non-help defense.

Yes, there has to be a ranking of players defensive impact, as SS provided, but whether this amounts to substantial tangible differences in points and on the game is another question altogether. I mean, should a 1.6 points per game difference between Noah and Bargs, for instance, be something that we are concerned about? I have no clue.

And no, I'm not a Bargs nut bagger -- I quite vehemently opposed drafting him.

This is 1.6 points only on man-to-man. The Raptors as a whole are the worst defensive team on cuts to the baskets where the C is the last line of defence.

As a general point...one thing I've noticed about basketball is that seemingly small differences have a huge impact. Like, there is an enormous gap between a guy who averages 12 rebounds per game and another who averages 10. Like, you almost want to think of this 2 rebound difference as have some sort of exponential effect on the team, rather than just a linear one.

I suspect something similar holds for some of these other statistics...they might be just the tip of the iceberg.

Absolutely. Especially when you focus on one person. The +/- stat would emphasize on more linear change as its the team's points being affected. When you look at a single player it has to be by an exponential factor since there are atleast 5 other players guarding their own men as well. I would assume it would even be higher for 5 man since he would be the last line of defence as well.

[Hendrix]

... And you really shouldn't gamble your franchise player on it imo.

...Far as Bargs costing us Bosh. Bosh gets along with Bargs on and off the court, so that's not it. If a star guard or C was made available for Bargs, and BC failed to pull the trigger, then sure. But I havent heard of any such rumour.

So I don't think we gambled Bosh on Bargs development.

I think it's a factor. Had Dwight been the guy next to Bosh we'd be winning more, but then Bosh himself would have a lesser role. That said, I agree that the Bargs thing is not the major factor with Chris leaving or not, and I'm getting quite tired about posters worrying about losing Bosh. We've done squat with him as our franchise guy and that's because building around a face up power forward who won't play 2 way ball is bound to get a team nowhere fast. Bosh is a great player on his own, but it's not like we're letting go of Tim Duncan here. We'll get past it, and sooner than people think (IMO).

We've done squat with him because we surrounded him with **** players like Bargs, Calderon, Jamario, Parker, and threw him one overated/over the hill player like J.O, Marion, Turk at a time.

It's not Bosh's fault we havn't won at all. Yes he needs more help then a guy like LBJ, or prime Duncan. But surely we coulda put more talent around him then we did, and pumed out some 50+ win teams.

[supersub15]

I think the Bargs bashing/defending has been discussed enough.

Let's talk some more about the stats SS shared and some of the most interesting reveals here. Also, and this has nothing to do with Andrea but let's discuss some of the potential reasons why some of these people are ranked where they are. Discussing these things will help us better analyze these numbers so that people don't suddenly start claiming that Joel Anthony would be a better player on this team than some of the other far better players ranked below him.

As SS clearly pointed out, these numbers include bench and role players and these two types of players play less minutes and go head-to-head often against inferior competition than centers.

It's also fairly clear that overall team defence (like most defensive stats) plays a huge part in these rankings. Now, the flip side to this point is that a good center can help anchor a defensive unit. I'd like to think that it's a bit of column A and B because if the entire team sucks on defence and the center is consistently out of position to help out then he's going to be late and sloppy doing some of the things a more sound defensive unit with an actual game plan might be. Teams that work together defensively as a unit trying to funnel players certain ways benefit from their teammates.

This was a really interesting stat, as all SS's stats are but I really hope nobody takes these numbers as gospel of any one thing in particular. Synergy Sports is more advanced than most defensive stats but there are still things we need to consider when using these stats to prove our respective points.

I agree. This is not the gospel on defensive stats, but at least there is no guessing. They catalogue what they see, and the numbers are linked to videos, so there's actual proof attached to the numbers.

Also, we can analyze why certain numbers are what they are. For instance, Roy Hibbert comes out pretty bad, but his problem isn't really post-ups, where he ranks ok at 0.84 PPP, it's the other stuff that kills him, because of his foot speed.

[Sister]

The Raptors are a horrid defense team, something that is not disputable. The questions I have is how much of this should be shouldered by Bargs, because we are picking on him a lot here.

My point is that based on the stats, there is not a lot to differentiate Bargs from Noah or Bogut or the other 20 Centers who are in and around that 0.9 ppp value. At least, on face value, the numbers suggest that there is not that much different. I just can't take any different conclusion from those numbers, with respect to his man defense.

What we also see is that Bargs had more opportunities to defend in terms of FGA than Noah or Dwight. Why?
- cause Bargs is perceived as a lousy defender and thus more teams "take it" to Bargs?
-cause the Raptors Defense is so lousy that more opportunities are created for Bargs to have to defend?

Probably a bit of both. Of course, the ideal scenarios for comparing Bargs defense to that of other centers is unachievable -- we can't put Bargs on Orlando and see what would happen. So we have to rely on the numbers, and as Double Helix notes, the context in which these numbers were achieved. Only considering both can we make sense of this.

[hkr]

...
It's not Bosh's fault we havn't won at all. Yes he needs more help then a guy like LBJ, or prime Duncan. But surely we coulda put more talent around him then we did, and pumed out some 50+ win teams.

Partly I put some blame on him. I just don't think, prior to this season, he was really as good as people thought he was. That's unfair of course since he still probably was the team's player along with Jose(many are going to kill me), but for the accolades that Bosh was getting, I think his performance had been somewhat underwhelming.

[strangespot]

I think the Bargs bashing/defending has been discussed enough.

Let's talk some more about the stats SS shared and some of the most interesting reveals here. Also, and this has nothing to do with Andrea but let's discuss some of the potential reasons why some of these people are ranked where they are. Discussing these things will help us better analyze these numbers so that people don't suddenly start claiming that Joel Anthony would be a better player on this team than some of the other far better players ranked below him.

As SS clearly pointed out, these numbers include bench and role players and these two types of players play less minutes and go head-to-head often against inferior competition than centers.

It's also fairly clear that overall team defence (like most defensive stats) plays a huge part in these rankings. Now, the flip side to this point is that a good center can help anchor a defensive unit. I'd like to think that it's a bit of column A and B because if the entire team sucks on defence and the center is consistently out of position to help out then he's going to be late and sloppy doing some of the things a more sound defensive unit with an actual game plan might be. Teams that work together defensively as a unit trying to funnel players certain ways benefit from their teammates.

This was a really interesting stat, as all SS's stats are but I really hope nobody takes these numbers as gospel of any one thing in particular. Synergy Sports is more advanced than most defensive stats but there are still things we need to consider when using these stats to prove our respective points.

I agree. This is not the gospel on defensive stats, but at least there is no guessing. They catalogue what they see, and the numbers are linked to videos, so there's actual proof attached to the numbers.

Also, we can analyze why certain numbers are what they are. For instance, Roy Hibbert comes out pretty bad, but his problem isn't really post-ups, where he ranks ok at 0.84 PPP, it's the other stuff that kills him, because of his foot speed.

hey SS, do you have the full centers list were you see the PPP for post-ups only ? thanks

[isyed]

The Raptors are a horrid defense team, something that is not disputable. The questions I have is how much of this should be shouldered by Bargs, because we are picking on him a lot here.

My point is that based on the stats, there is not a lot to differentiate Bargs from Noah or Bogut or the other 20 Centers who are in and around that 0.9 ppp value. At least, on face value, the numbers suggest that there is not that much different. I just can't take any different conclusion from those numbers, with respect to his man defense.

What we also see is that Bargs had more opportunities to defend in terms of FGA than Noah or Dwight. Why?
- cause Bargs is perceived as a lousy defender and thus more teams "take it" to Bargs?
-cause the Raptors Defense is so lousy that more opportunities are created for Bargs to have to defend?

Probably a bit of both. Of course, the ideal scenarios for comparing Bargs defense to that of other centers is unachievable -- we can't put Bargs on Orlando and see what would happen. So we have to rely on the numbers, and as Double Helix notes, the context in which these numbers were achieved. Only considering both can we make sense of this.

I honestly don't think this is totally on Bargs with regards to defence but the point remains that having a more alert and better defender (team in this case) would a)erase a lot of the team's mistakes b) help with the overall system where even if Bargs is not erasing mistakes he is rotating to a spot where he should be and where he is not most of the time.

This thread and point is highlighting the man on man defence part where if you were reading here would have thought that Bargs was an all world man defender where as Bosh as absolutely pathetic. There are 3 separate points where Bargs gets bashed and in IMO is correct:

1) Defensive Rebounding
2) Help defence
3) offensive rebounding
4) man defence

in this order. His offence has often times not been bashed but the consistency at which he plays has at that end.

He defensive rebounding woes are well known. His help defence also atrocious. His offensive rebounding is almost non existent and the only and only thing that bargs supporter were holding onto for a sign of support was his man defence. That myth too has been debunked here.

[isyed]

...Far as Bargs costing us Bosh. Bosh gets along with Bargs on and off the court, so that's not it. If a star guard or C was made available for Bargs, and BC failed to pull the trigger, then sure. But I havent heard of any such rumour.

So I don't think we gambled Bosh on Bargs development.

I think it's a factor. Had Dwight been the guy next to Bosh we'd be winning more, but then Bosh himself would have a lesser role. That said, I agree that the Bargs thing is not the major factor with Chris leaving or not, and I'm getting quite tired about posters worrying about losing Bosh. We've done squat with him as our franchise guy and that's because building around a face up power forward who won't play 2 way ball is bound to get a team nowhere fast. Bosh is a great player on his own, but it's not like we're letting go of Tim Duncan here. We'll get past it, and sooner than people think (IMO).

We've done squat with him because we surrounded him with **** players like Bargs, Calderon, Jamario, Parker, and threw him one overated/over the hill player like J.O, Marion, Turk at a time.

It's not Bosh's fault we havn't won at all. Yes he needs more help then a guy like LBJ, or prime Duncan. But surely we coulda put more talent around him then we did, and pumed out some 50+ win teams.

Yes i agree Bosh is not close to LBJ or Duncan but atleast they have always had some resemblance of a team to complement them in any way, shape or form.

Lebron's teams were always built with strong defensive suits, only last few years has he had help in terms of a secondary scorer in Mo and Jamison. Look where he has taken the team with 2 pieces of help. Same with Duncan. A one man post team would not do anything without defenders and secondary scorers especially as dynamic as manu and parker.

Lets forget the fact that you cannot compare guards to big to keep the playing field simple its almost a given that a wing with medicore talent can easily do more than a big can. its the nature of the game.

Lets look at what any superstar would need to become competitive. He would need atleast one of the following:

1) Good defensive players/system at complementing positions
2) Good secondary scorer/franchise type player to take the pressure off them

Bosh has never ever had anything close to that above. The only time he had a system to even slightly complement him ie Rasho as post defender and TJ as secondary scorer he took the team to a very good record. After and before this he has had absolutely nothing to complement him. Not even close.

[Courtside]

My point is that based on the stats, there is not a lot to differentiate Bargs from Noah or Bogut or the other 20 Centers who are in and around that 0.9 ppp value. At least, on face value, the numbers suggest that there is not that much different. I just can't take any different conclusion from those numbers, with respect to his man defense.

What we also see is that Bargs had more opportunities to defend in terms of FGA than Noah or Dwight. Why?
- cause Bargs is perceived as a lousy defender and thus more teams "take it" to Bargs?
- cause the Raptors Defense is so lousy that more opportunities are created for Bargs to have to defend?

I honestly don't think this is totally on Bargs with regards to defence but the point remains that having a more alert and better defender (team in this case) would a)erase a lot of the team's mistakes b) help with the overall system where even if Bargs is not erasing mistakes he is rotating to a spot where he should be and where he is not most of the time.

This thread and point is highlighting the man on man defence part where if you were reading here would have thought that Bargs was an all world man defender where as Bosh as absolutely pathetic. There are 3 separate points where Bargs gets bashed and in IMO is correct:

1) Defensive Rebounding
2) Help defence
3) offensive rebounding
4) man defence

in this order. His offence has often times not been bashed but the consistency at which he plays has at that end.

He defensive rebounding woes are well known. His help defence also atrocious. His offensive rebounding is almost non existent and the only and only thing that bargs supporter were holding onto for a sign of support was his man defence. That myth too has been debunked here.

See - this is why people get their backs up and feel the need to defend the guy. NOBODY ever said that Bargs was an "all world man defender" and nobody ever said that Bargs would have been picked over Bosh if they were in the same draft (Reignman). There's all kinds of silly assertions that are made in an attempt to discredit Bargs that have to be responded to because they are false.

That said - the fact that Bargs faces 9.35 man-to-man defensive possessions compared to 7.69 or 7.27 by Dwight or Noah absolutely needs more context. It's seems fairly clear to me that we're asking him to clean up a lot more of the team's shortcomings than the Bulls and Magic do. I'd be interested to know what the numbers are for guys like Pryz and Horford too. If he's facing 15~20% more man-to-man defensive assignments, is it any wonder he has trouble being a help defender?

[Hendrix]

...
It's not Bosh's fault we havn't won at all. Yes he needs more help then a guy like LBJ, or prime Duncan. But surely we coulda put more talent around him then we did, and pumed out some 50+ win teams.

Partly I put some blame on him. I just don't think, prior to this season, he was really as good as people thought he was. That's unfair of course since he still probably was the team's player along with Jose(many are going to kill me), but for the accolades that Bosh was getting, I think his performance had been somewhat underwhelming.

I'm not really sure what you mean by "probably was the teams player". I hope you're not sayng he was only probably the teams best player, because it's not even close.

And I don't know why people keep cutting out important parts of my quotes, and failing to address them. The **** supporting casts he's had are the problem, not Bosh. And it's not even like there hasn't been opportunities to fix it, or that the problems the teams faced wern't obvious/ never adressed.

[Prop]

i haven't read the thread, just the op...but i'm certain this has provided bargs lovers an opportunity to come up with some more creative excuses for his play. can anyone summarize?

[dacrusha]

My point is that based on the stats, there is not a lot to differentiate Bargs from Noah or Bogut or the other 20 Centers who are in and around that 0.9 ppp value. At least, on face value, the numbers suggest that there is not that much different. I just can't take any different conclusion from those numbers, with respect to his man defense.

What we also see is that Bargs had more opportunities to defend in terms of FGA than Noah or Dwight. Why?
- cause Bargs is perceived as a lousy defender and thus more teams "take it" to Bargs?
- cause the Raptors Defense is so lousy that more opportunities are created for Bargs to have to defend?

I honestly don't think this is totally on Bargs with regards to defence but the point remains that having a more alert and better defender (team in this case) would a)erase a lot of the team's mistakes b) help with the overall system where even if Bargs is not erasing mistakes he is rotating to a spot where he should be and where he is not most of the time.

This thread and point is highlighting the man on man defence part where if you were reading here would have thought that Bargs was an all world man defender where as Bosh as absolutely pathetic. There are 3 separate points where Bargs gets bashed and in IMO is correct:

1) Defensive Rebounding
2) Help defence
3) offensive rebounding
4) man defence

in this order. His offence has often times not been bashed but the consistency at which he plays has at that end.

He defensive rebounding woes are well known. His help defence also atrocious. His offensive rebounding is almost non existent and the only and only thing that bargs supporter were holding onto for a sign of support was his man defence. That myth too has been debunked here.

See - this is why people get their backs up and feel the need to defend the guy. NOBODY ever said that Bargs was an "all world man defender" and nobody ever said that Bargs would have been picked over Bosh if they were in the same draft (Reignman). There's all kinds of silly assertions that are made in an attempt to discredit Bargs that have to be responded to because they are false.

That said - the fact that Bargs faces 9.35 man-to-man defensive possessions compared to 7.69 or 7.27 by Dwight or Noah absolutely needs more context. It's seems fairly clear to me that we're asking him to clean up a lot more of the team's shortcomings than the Bulls and Magic do. I'd be interested to know what the numbers are for guys like Pryz and Horford too. If he's facing 15~20% more man-to-man defensive assignments, is it any wonder he has trouble being a help defender?

You've completely misinterpreted this statistical information.

It's actually clear that we're asking Bargs to clean up less of the teams' shortcomings than the Bulls and Magic ask of their centers.

After all, he's being asked to confront fewer help defense assignments.

[Lionel Messi]

...
It's not Bosh's fault we havn't won at all. Yes he needs more help then a guy like LBJ, or prime Duncan. But surely we coulda put more talent around him then we did, and pumed out some 50+ win teams.

Partly I put some blame on him. I just don't think, prior to this season, he was really as good as people thought he was. That's unfair of course since he still probably was the team's player along with Jose(many are going to kill me), but for the accolades that Bosh was getting, I think his performance had been somewhat underwhelming.

I'm not really sure what you mean by "probably was the teams player". I hope you're not sayng he was only probably the teams best player, because it's not even close.

And I don't know why people keep cutting out important parts of my quotes, and failing to address them. The **** supporting casts he's had are the problem, not Bosh. And it's not even like there hasn't been opportunities to fix it, or that the problems the teams faced wern't obvious/ never adressed.

Did he imply that Bosh was only marginally better than Jose? Or that Bosh/Jose were some sort of tandem?

Here's a fact:
Bosh led a group of role players to a 47 win season and a division title.

Here's another:
TJ Ford, during his 1 and 1/3 years here, was the sidekick Bosh ever had.
That's sad.

[Tommy Gun]

i haven't read the thread, just the op...but i'm certain this has provided bargs lovers an opportunity to come up with some more creative excuses for his play. can anyone summarize?

Yep, the Flat-Earthers have been given another great opportunity to expand "The List". Wonderful stuff.

[roundhead0]

Stats are useful, but they are no substitute for actually watching players play because you get more context. For example, with all the stupid switching off the Raptors do and the general confusion that sometimes resulted, how many times did they end up letting guys get wide open shots? How many times was that Bargnani's man?

Bargs is a C. Look at the 3 point shooting that "his man" got: 47%. That's waaaaay above the league average, and certainly not the kind of shooting that you would expect from opposing C's. Clearly there was an another factor in play here.

Basically, without putting every player at one position into the same system with the same players, any statistic has limited value because we could be comparing apples to oranges. That is why it is more important to actually watch to see what happens and evaluate more subjectively than it is to simply look at the numbers. Numbers help, but never tell the entire story.

We're also dealing with limited sample sizes here even though it is the entire season. You could be playing excellent defense but if the guy you're covering happens to be hitting everything in sight on that particular night despite your efforts, that can seriously skew your overall stats. It should even out with a large enough sample size, but unfortunately I'm not sure that you will always get that with 1 season's worth of stats.

[Courtside]

You've completely misinterpreted this statistical information.

It's actually clear that we're asking Bargs to clean up less of the teams' shortcomings than the Bulls and Magic ask of their centers.

After all, he's being asked to confront fewer help defense assignments.

No it's not clear. If there were stats that said Bargs helps on X number of possessions which is less than Y or Z by Noah and Dwight, you'd have a point, but these stats don't tell us anything about help defense all - so you have no basis to say that.

These stats cover direct man possessions, pick-n-roll plays and switches (sometimes the same thing). These stats don't say that he helps less as you assert, and only say that he defends straight-up more. What I said was that if he does have to defend straight up more (likely because of our excessive switching), it can (at least partly) tell us why he has trouble being a helper - which he clearly does have trouble with.

[Tommy Gun]

We're also dealing with limited sample sizes here even though it is the entire season. You could be playing excellent defense but if the guy you're covering happens to be hitting everything in sight on that particular night despite your efforts, that can seriously skew your overall stats. It should even out with a large enough sample size, but unfortunately I'm not sure that you will always get that with 1 season's worth of stats.

8.5
6.7
1.7
1.9

The amount that the Raptors D has been worse per 100 possessions with Bargs on the court versus him off the court in the last 4 year. Not a coincidence, not a surprise that he's getting worse with more minutes and responsibility. He really is one of the worst big men in the league on D. Flat earthers hate to hear this stuff though