2010 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[-MetA4-]

You wont have a whole lot reports on his defense, but most people think he can be an above-average defensive first baseman because he has soft hands.

[Schad]

Small sample size and a less-than-perfect stat, but he has a range factor of around 8.00 as a 1B. That isn't particularly good, and I wouldn't expect him to be more than an average defensive first baseman, at best.

[tsherkin]

Does Alvarez have a good changeup right now? I keep hearing about his heater (which I assume is a 4-seamer... with what kind of movement on it?) but not so much about his other stuff, if it exists. Is his main pitch a sinker or a straight heater?

EDIT: I'm late to the thread, so if this has been discussed already, my apologies.

[Hendrix]

My God....

Arencibia got 3 walks today.

He also went 2/3 with a double. But man. 3 bb's.

[Avenger]

Does Alvarez have a good changeup right now? I keep hearing about his heater (which I assume is a 4-seamer... with what kind of movement on it?) but not so much about his other stuff, if it exists. Is his main pitch a sinker or a straight heater?

EDIT: I'm late to the thread, so if this has been discussed already, my apologies.

His fastball is supposed to have a lot of sinking action to it resulting in all those groundballs. He does have a great changeup which was ranked as the best in the Organization by Baseball America.

[-MetA4-]

Last year BA raved about Alvarez's hard changeup with "nasty" movement.

[tsherkin]

Cool. So he's really as two-pitch pitcher, yeah? You guys were talking down his curve and what I've read says it's sort of flat and should really be turned into a slider. That sound about right?

[Hendrix]

I'm thinking he was wrong. It's kind of hard to tell how tall he is in the pics he got, but his build looks about normal for a SS I suppose. Maybe needs a few lb's, but nothing that a little time shouldn't fix.

[Schad]

Don't forget Dopirak's walk-off two-out grand slam. It was a silly game all around.

With regards to Alvarez...he's not a two-pitch pitcher, but a guy with two plus pitches and a pretty 'meh' breaking ball. I'm guessing the reason his curveball flattens out is that he's throwing it from a three-quarter angle. He can make it even without developing a killer breaking pitch, but with one he'll have the total package.

[tsherkin]

With regards to Alvarez...he's not a two-pitch pitcher, but a guy with two plus pitches and a pretty 'meh' breaking ball. I'm guessing the reason his curveball flattens out is that he's throwing it from a three-quarter angle. He can make it even without developing a killer breaking pitch, but with one he'll have the total package.

As a two-pitch guy though, don't you think he'll have a lot of trouble at the major league level as a starter? A good fastball and a good change are a great combo, but he still needs a good out pitch against righties, no?

People are talking about the Doc comparison (obviously not projecting, but stylistically relating to groundballs), are we talking about him as a primary sinkerballer, does he heater have THAT kind of sink?

Because Doc throws a nasty curve, a slider, a cutter and occasionally a two-seamer that moves quite a bit laterally.

So where do you project Alvarez with only two good pitches and that flat curve?

[Schad]

As a two-pitch guy though, don't you think he'll have a lot of trouble at the major league level as a starter? A good fastball and a good change are a great combo, but he still needs a good out pitch against righties, no?

Again, there's a big difference between a two-pitch pitcher and a guy with two plus pitches and a low-average pitch. Most pitchers don't have two three above-average pitches, though his slurve could develop into one.

[tsherkin]

Again, there's a big difference between a two-pitch pitcher and a guy with two plus pitches and a low-average pitch. Most pitchers don't have two three above-average pitches, though his slurve could develop into one.

OK, fair enough. But that's half the question.

What kind of player do you think he projects as? With his current pitches and maybe with a slightly improved third pitch?

[Schad]

OK, fair enough. But that's half the question.

What kind of player do you think he projects as? With his current pitches and maybe with a slightly improved third pitch?

Depends on the defense behind him, to an extent. With a serviceable (but not good) third pitch, a 92-93 sinker and hard change, and a solid defense, he could put up numbers similar to Derek Lowe...ERA in the mid/high 3s most years, WHIP in the 1.20s, fair number of singles and plenty of balls in play, but not much centered.

It's hard to throw a north/south breaking ball from a lower arm slot (Halladay does, which is why his curve is so filthy), and that's the challenge...as his other pitches have such downward motion, it's easier to pick up a pitch with lateral movement like a pure slider, and it's harder to throw a 12-6 curve without changing his arm angle and telegraphing the pitch.

[Hoopstarr]

I'm thinking he was wrong. It's kind of hard to tell how tall he is in the pics he got, but his build looks about normal for a SS I suppose. Maybe needs a few lb's, but nothing that a little time shouldn't fix.

Not sure why people are worried about his weight or height. I'm guessing he's considered the prospect he is precisely because of his current body type--not too tall or lanky, tensile and wiry frame, very low body fat, whip-like arm, and good speed. Any major changes and he risks not staying at SS.

[Randle McMurphy]

Brad Mills has 32 K, 6 BB, 1 HR, and a 1.75 GO/FO in 24.2 IP.

Pretty good.

[Schad]

Brad Mills has 32 K, 6 BB, 1 HR, and a 1.75 GO/FO in 24.2 IP.

Pretty good.

Can't say that I expected it...last year he wasn't terrible, just underwhelming across the board save for his HR rate. If he makes the big club, we could have three pitchers from the Class of '07 (Cecil, Zip and Mills) in the rotation at some point, plus Tim Collins and the much maligned (by me) Trystan Magnuson looking like potential big-league relievers. Heck, there's even a chance that Randy Boone and his unsettlingly thick neck could make a spot appearance or two in the Dome at some point.

And to think, it was the hitters we took in that draft that had me excited.

[tsherkin]

Depends on the defense behind him, to an extent. With a serviceable (but not good) third pitch, a 92-93 sinker and hard change, and a solid defense, he could put up numbers similar to Derek Lowe...ERA in the mid/high 3s most years, WHIP in the 1.20s, fair number of singles and plenty of balls in play, but not much centered.

Yeah, I'm thinking on our team. We have a pretty big weak spot at 3rd base and our outfield defense isn't amazing, but our middle infield defense is pretty good.

It's hard to throw a north/south breaking ball from a lower arm slot (Halladay does, which is why his curve is so filthy), and that's the challenge...as his other pitches have such downward motion, it's easier to pick up a pitch with lateral movement like a pure slider, and it's harder to throw a 12-6 curve without changing his arm angle and telegraphing the pitch.

Hmm. Maybe that's not the pitch, then; maybe he might think about a splitter? Same sort of arm motion as a heater, similar release point but lots of late drop off. Or would the arm slot tinker with that too?

[Schad]

Yeah, I'm thinking on our team. We have a pretty big weak spot at 3rd base and our outfield defense isn't amazing, but our middle infield defense is pretty good.

It's really hard to say what our defense will be like when Alvarez makes it (presuming that he isn't derailed by something, that'll likely be two years away, perhaps three, as he's still a baby). Hill will likely -- but not definitely -- be with the club, Wallace should be at first, third is a complete unknown and shortstop could be Hechevarria, but who really knows.

Hmm. Maybe that's not the pitch, then; maybe he might think about a splitter? Same sort of arm motion as a heater, similar release point but lots of late drop off. Or would the arm slot tinker with that too?

If his change is as advertised (I've seen exactly 30 seconds of actual game footage featuring him, shot by a shaky camera positioned several rows behind home), a splitter would likely be pretty close in effect...it might break down a little harder and have a couple extra MPH, but I'm not sure that it would add much that the changeup doesn't, and it's a bitch to throw with any accuracy if your hands aren't particularly large.

I'm honestly not sure what the best and most attainable breaking pitch would be, if he had the option. Heh, whatever works best and puts the least strain on his arm, I suppose, and we may have to wait a year or two to find out what develops as he reaches the tougher competition of AA and AAA.

[tsherkin]

KNUCKLEBALL!!

I would die laughing, seriously.

The league does need another quality knuckleballer, though. Zink doesn't appear to be it, Banks has too many pitches. I'm still hoping Haeger gets it together.

But yeah, I guess with Alvarez we shall wait and see; I'm excited.

[Hoopstarr]

Brad Mills has 32 K, 6 BB, 1 HR, and a 1.75 GO/FO in 24.2 IP.

Pretty good.

Can't say that I expected it...last year he wasn't terrible, just underwhelming across the board save for his HR rate. If he makes the big club, we could have three pitchers from the Class of '07 (Cecil, Zip and Mills) in the rotation at some point, plus Tim Collins and the much maligned (by me) Trystan Magnuson looking like potential big-league relievers. Heck, there's even a chance that Randy Boone and his unsettlingly thick neck could make a spot appearance or two in the Dome at some point.

And to think, it was the hitters we took in that draft that had me excited.

The question with Mills is, does he have ML stuff. In his stint last year, his FB was at around 88 with soft stuff in the 70s. I don't see how that plays in the majors.

And I too am disappointed in those 2007 hitters. Tolisano and Jackson were considered high reward picks. In the first round, they got unlucky and missed out on the top tier of talent just like in 2008, so they settled for Ahrens who was drawing Chipper comparisons. Ben Revere and Ike Davis would've been nice instead, though.