OT: Ryan Howard reups, $125M/5

youngLion · Post #1 » by **youngLion** » Tue Apr 27, 2010 2:14 am

Link

I've got mixed feelings on this one, but I think it's going to end up biting the Phillies in the ass. Obviously Howard hits homers, and because of that it was going to take a very big number to keep him. That being said I don't understand the timing of this deal. The guy wasn't going to be a free agent until after 2011, why not let him play out his contract and then negotiate when he's a year older? Now they're locked into paying a 35 year old 25mill.

Hoopstarr · Post #2 » by **Hoopstarr** » Tue Apr 27, 2010 4:08 am

It's a joke. Rob Neyer said it best:

Ryan Howard's new contract is a testament the enduring power of the Are-Bee-Eye. It's also a testament to old-school ignorance: ignorance of aging patterns, ignorance of position scarcity, ignorance of opportunity costs ... hey, take your pick. The Phillies have done a lot of things right over the last few years. But this is a big bowl of wrong.

If he's getting 25M/yr, Chase Utley should be getting 40. Baseball teams just won't learn. What's worse is that they didn't even have to do it yet. He doesn't expire until after next year.

Post #3 » by **OldNo7** » Tue Apr 27, 2010 10:30 am

Its too much, and it doesnt start until he is 32. If he was playing a premier defensive position, fine. But he is average at best at 1B. If he gets $25mil per season, Pujols must be liking his lips at the prospect of being the first $50mil a year player.

Post #4 » by **tsherkin** » Tue Apr 27, 2010 2:43 pm

Way too much. Interesting article on Fangraphs about Howard's contract. They said he'll have to post something like 4.7 WAR from 32-37 to make him worth the $25M/year and that would be better than last season, or something to that effect. Ugh. Oh well, they're locked in to try and win a Series now, and if they win a second title in 3 years or whatever, fans will forgive them being cap-locked for a few years after, especially if they stay decent.

Relentless88 · Post #5 » by **Relentless88** » Tue Apr 27, 2010 4:50 pm

This is why we need a salary cap in the MLB. Howard will make 3 times as much as Sidney Crosby.

Randle McMurphy · Post #6 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Tue Apr 27, 2010 5:49 pm

So they traded away Cliff Lee to make room for a colossally stupid Ryan Howard contract?

It all makes sense now.

Post #7 » by **Schad** » Tue Apr 27, 2010 6:30 pm

Hoopstarr wrote:It's a joke. Rob Neyer said it best:

Ryan Howard's new contract is a testament the enduring power of the Are-Bee-Eye. It's also a testament to old-school ignorance: ignorance of aging patterns, ignorance of position scarcity, ignorance of opportunity costs ... hey, take your pick. The Phillies have done a lot of things right over the last few years. But this is a big bowl of wrong.

If he's getting 25M/yr, Chase Utley should be getting 40. Baseball teams just won't learn. What's worse is that they didn't even have to do it yet. He doesn't expire until after next year.

Yep, and the aging patterns is the biggest element here. Howard keeps himself in decent shape these days (which wasn't always the case), but big-bodied 1B don't generally keep mashing at a 140 OPS+ clip through age 35.

If they were willing to offer that, there was absolutely no way they would be out-bid on the open market, and thus no reason whatsoever to do this now, when a down season (and he's off to a rough start, though rough starts are his forte) could have shaved $20-40m off that total.

Hoopstarr · Post #8 » by **Hoopstarr** » Tue Apr 27, 2010 6:37 pm

Randle McMurphy wrote:So they traded away Cliff Lee to make room for a colossally stupid Ryan Howard contract?

It all makes sense now.

Apparently their excuse for that is that it wasn't about money with trading Lee, they wanted to restock their system after trading for Doc. That, of course, is stupid. Their system is still loaded even after the trade and they should be trying to win NOW NOW NOW with the core in their prime.

Hoopstarr · Post #9 » by **Hoopstarr** » Tue Apr 27, 2010 7:42 pm

A net present value analysis of the contract: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/4 ... yan-howard

Jon Heyman: "folks keep tweeting howard's an overpay. but hes averaged 49.5 HRs/143 RBIs last 4 yrs. MVP finishes those 4: 1, 5, 2, 3"

CapeCrusader · Post #10 » by **CapeCrusader** » Tue Apr 27, 2010 8:12 pm

Honestly I love Howard, hes one of my favourite players in the league....but thats a nasty contract. I would of waited out a couple years before even thinking about offering.

satyr9 · Post #11 » by **satyr9** » Tue Apr 27, 2010 9:28 pm

Yup, too much for too long given out too early. I just see no chance that they were going to get to the end of 2011 and have that offer not win out in the worst possible case. Even if you think there's a possibility he plays so well this looks like a decent deal when it begins, the probabilities had to lie with offering less and waiting him out if he didn't take it. 5/100, 4/90 maybe... even then I'd be pretty wary starting that kind of deal on a 32 year-old masher, no matter how good he was this year and the next. If this was what it took to get him signed, I definitely would've, at a bare minimum, waited 'til the 2010 offseason.

Raptor_Guy · Post #12 » by **Raptor_Guy** » Wed Apr 28, 2010 4:35 am

Soo Ryan Howard is going to make more money than Sidney Crosby and LeBron James? Cmon Bud Selig wake up.

If I'm a Phillies fan I'm definately pissed they saved money by trading Lee and getting Halladay, then use that money on this.