Breakin' Down Cavs vs Celtics

[heathmalc]

This is one of those series (Like Dallas/San Antonio) that could have a few "ugly" moments. These two teams do not like each other, and when they play... That Woofin' is non-stop; from BOTH sides!!!

Normally, I'd say that the Cavaliers should win this series in 5 or maybe 6 games. However, due to the competitive nature of the two teams' main stars (LeBron,Shaq,Mo,/Big-3) I think this is one of those series where you can throw out most of the stats. Let me break it down like this:

PG: Rondo is the superior PG, both at running a team, and defensively. Mo is the more dangerous scorer, but due to Rondo's defense, I am inclined to give them a draw at the scoring end. This would seemingly give Rondo the edge, as he is the better play-maker... the thing is, Mo isn't the play-maker for the Cavs. He plays the point, but is really just a glorified, undersized SG. I think that Mo will average more points, while Rondo will get a lot more assists and boards. However, I think that due to the nature of the Cavaliers' offense being predicated on LeBron, rather than Mo, that this evens these two out, and makes this position a draw... even though Rondo is CLEARLY the better PG!

SG: Both Anthony Parker and Ray Allen are excellent defenders, and both can drive, and shoot the 3-ball. That being said, Ray is the better, and more dangerous scorer. Ray can shoot his three off the dribble, with relatively high accuracy. Parker is not very good when he is forced to shoot the three off the dribble, on a pull-up. Ray gets the nod here, as he is the better scorer, and I believe he is the more versatile defender as well.

SF: Both LeBron and Paul are in the top 3 at their position in the NBA. Either can score 40-50 points on any given night, and both are triple double threats. In addition, both players are good defenders, and team leaders. LeBron gets the edge here mostly due to his strength & Speed advantages, which also allow him to defend 4 positions on the floor; making him more versatile for the Cavs than Paul is for the Celtics. LeBron has had issues for the last month with his elbow, and it has the possibility of being an issue, although he says it is fine. That being the case (the possibility of the elbow being an issue), I am inclined to make this match-up a closer fight, than normal: Normally, I'd give LeBron the clear-cut advantage with speed,size, and youth... but a possible injury makes this a closer battle in my opinion....regardless of what LeBron says.

PF: Kevin Garnett and Antawn Jamison should be one of the more interesting match-ups of the series. Kevin is a sure-fire HOFer, and age is creeping up on him. However, he seems relatively healthy right now, and has played well in the post season. Both players are past their prime, but Antawn has remained mostly injury free, and due to the way Washington played, he did not take as much of a pounding as most PFs do... he was more like a 2nd Small forward, even though he played PF. As far as defense goes, Kevin is far and away the better defender, as Antawn has never been known for his defensive prowess. Antawn is the better, more versatile scorer - He is dangerous from the 3pt-line, yet can drive the ball to the paint, and can post-up smaller players. If Garnett is guarding Antawn, he (Jamison) will likely draw Kevin to the perimeter by shooting 3's; if the Celtics switch-up defenders (say Pierce or TAllen), then Antawn will post-up. The wide range of possibilities between Kevin and Antawn ensure that this will be one of the MAIN areas of concern for both teams! It wouldn't surprise me if the winner of this battle was the main factor in which team won the game/series.

Center: Perkins has the advantage of youth...BY MILES, and he has turned into a really good defender. Shaq, although older, and just a glimmer of his former self, is still a big guy, who can, at times, turn it on! When Shaq has the ball in the paint, he still commands a double, as there isn't any center in the league (Possible exception of healthy Yao Ming) that can prevent him from backing them down. Shaq does have a propensity of using his elbows on these drives though, and often gets offensive fouls called on him for it (9 in the Chicago series). Overall, I give Perkins the edge, because he is likely to stay on the floor longer, thus be more valuable to his team.

The Benches: For the Celtics, Davis, TAllen, and Finley are your best bench guys. Nate, Daniels, and Wallace could be big factors too, but are not as reliable as the other 3. For the Cavaliers, Varejao, West, Moon, Hickson, Ilgauskas, and Gibson will likely be the active bench guys, with West, Varejao and Moon getting the majority of the bench minutes. Powe is also a possibility, but knowing MB, he is unlikely to make Powe play against his former team/friends. I believe that the edge here is definitely weighted to the Cavaliers. West and Varejao were both starters last year, but were moved to the bench so it would be stronger. In addition, Jamario Moon has played well, and is a versatile defender who can also shoot the 3. Ilgauskas and Hickson give the Cavaliers 2 big men... coming off the bench, who started a combined 80 games this year. This gives the Cavaliers a LOT of depth in the front-court, where I think this series will be decided.

Final analysis: Despite the woofing that is always going on between these two teams, it is not due to a lack of respect. These teams respect one another, and both know that this series will be a dog-fight - that may include a few ejections. This may be the only true rivalry left in the Eastern conference right now, as these two teams have been battling for conference supremacy for the last 3 years... both during the regular season, and the post season. Currently, Boston holds "court"... meaning, that the Celtics won the last playoff series, and since they were even during the regular season, Boston feels that the Cavaliers have to "take" the series from them, despite the fact that the Cavaliers have home-court.

As I said when I started this post, this series is going to be very competitive, and will be a knock-down, drag-out affair. Whoever (whichever) team wins this series...will have earned it, as no Ref will be able to keep up with all the hard fouls that will be dealt out (by both teams). This should make for an EXTREMELY entertaining series, and possibly the best series of the 2010 post-season.

I will give the edge to the home team, but wont go any farther than saying: "they have the edge." However, one game can change that...which is why I wont go any further in my predictions. What I will say is this: Whatever team wins this series... I think they will go on to win the 2010 NBA title. I think this because I don't believe either team will face a more determined team than they will this series; all other teams will be "determined-lite", in contrast.

[ryaningf]

The Celtics will not double team Shaq. And Rondo has a chance to neutralize Mo if he makes it a priority, forcing Lebron (or another player) to bring up the ball to initiate the offense. It'll be a matter of how far Rondo can stray off Mo while still recovering to stop his jump shooting and dribble penetration.

Otherwise, good analysis. It's going to be a hell of a series...

P.S. Something you didn't touch on, but will be a factor is how MB plays his rotation. If he sticks with Shaq because of reputation, and neglects to play Hickson/Andy big minutes, it's going to be a long series for Cleveland. Shaq (and Z) and his inability to guard the pick-and-roll gives us a major offensive advantage, while Shaq against our front line really won't do much (I'd love it if they went to Shaq). On the other hand, the athleticism of Hickson/Andy gives us real problems both offensively and defensively, mainly because outside of KG we have trouble matching up against athletic bigs. This will be a series about who controls the pace of the game, and playing Shaq big minutes plays right into the Cs hands.

[mr_sunshine]

I laughed when you said Williams and Rondo were a wash....and then when I read Ray Allen is an "excellent defender" I just stopped reading.

[leper-con]

Overall a good analysis.
The game plan will be simple.
Keep Lebron on the perimeter and allow him to shoot jumpers. Control the remaining 4 Cavs one on one and when needs be double team Lebron and force him to pass the ball. The main threat to the C's besides Lebron is Verajo (sp?) to lazy to look it up. His energy kills the older C's. He eats up 50-50 balls and is a monster at our one weak link...rebounding.
Big Baby needs to match and surpass his energy.

I'm hoping 7 games...and being a C's fan...I'll say when it goes to 7, its anybodys ball game.
Let's hope for some good ball. I'll also go out on a limb and say the C's steal the first game from Cleveland.

[heathmalc]

I laughed when you said Williams and Rondo were a wash....and then when I read Ray Allen is an "excellent defender" I just stopped reading.

If that's what you saw... then you didn't comprehend what I was saying. I didn't say they were a "wash" when comparing who was the better PG... in-fact, I was pretty clear when I said that Rondo was the Superior PG. What I said, is that the position match-up between the two would end up being a draw, due to the fact that Rondo is responsible for more than Mo, while Mo is mostly a glorified SG, who plays the PG position.

Okay... let me make this easier for you:

Hypothetically... lets say that the stat line looks like this:

Rondo: 15 pts, 11 assists, 7 rebounds, 2 steals
Mo : 22 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 steal

You follow now? Rondo does more for the Celtics...and will be triple double threat every game... but due to Mo's reduced responsibilities, and his ability to score at an efficient rate, it makes the position a non-factor in the overall series.

... And Ray may be getting older... but he is still a very good defender. Maybe the 2nd best the Celtics have (behind Rondo)
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As for one of the other posts that questioned MB's rotation.... Varejao always gets about 30 minutes... regardless of how long Shaq is on the floor. Hickson on the other hand... his minutes will average 10-15. Ilgauskas... don't be surprised if you dont see him at all.

[ParticleMan]

nice analysis. agree with most points. i think the cavs have a big edge just because of Lebron tho. he is far and away the best player in this series. that's the thing the C's have to overcome. usually the best player wins, unless the other team has an overwhelming advantage at the other positions (like we did against the heat). against the cavs, as you say, the rest of the positions are mostly a wash, though we may have a slight advantage at some.

I laughed when you said Williams and Rondo were a wash....and then when I read Ray Allen is an "excellent defender" I just stopped reading.

i don't have a problem with either statement. rondo would be clearly a winner if he could hit an open 15 footer. and ray did an excellent job on wade, usually takes the opponent's best scorer, and has been our best defender statistically. unfortunately he is just not strong enough to stay with lebron.

[IEcelticfan]

wow, them bspn "experts" are at it again .... lol

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2010/ma ... -cavaliers

[BRUNiNHO91]

Okay... let me make this easier for you:

Hypothetically... lets say that the stat line looks like this:

Rondo: 15 pts, 11 assists, 7 rebounds, 2 steals
Mo : 22 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 steal

You follow now? Rondo does more for the Celtics...and will be triple double threat every game... but due to Mo's reduced responsibilities, and his ability to score at an efficient rate, it makes the position a non-factor in the overall series.

... And Ray may be getting older... but he is still a very good defender. Maybe the 2nd best the Celtics have (behind Rondo)
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So if Rondo has 7 more assists, 4 more rebounds and 1 more steal, but loses by 7 pts, the match up is a wash? lol

Ray our second best defender? Good lord...

[heathmalc]

So if Rondo has 7 more assists, 4 more rebounds and 1 more steal, but loses by 7 pts, the match up is a wash? lol

Ray our second best defender? Good lord...

It isn't that Rondo's game stats would be worse... or even a wash... his stats would be better (imho), however, due to the fact that Rondo is REQUIRED to do all that stuff... it makes for a positional wash.

For instance - If Rondo had 4 assists and 3 rebounds... then the Celtics would "likely" lose. This is because Rondo is the starter for the Celtic Offense, and a main cog for their perimeter defense. Whereas, Mo Williams doesn't have to even score 15 points and contribute 5 assists for the Cavaliers to be successful.

You following the thought pattern now?

It isn't that Rondo 's game is a wash with Mo's, when you look at them head-2-head, it's just that Mo isn't required to do nearly as much...

Okay... Let me put it this way... What if Rondo and Mo Williams had identical stats for every game of the series? Lets say... 15 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 2 steals..... What team do you think would win the series? The Cavs would...because Mo would be doing WAY more than what the team expects of him.

Along the same vein, I also said that the LeBron/Pierce match-up would be a lot closer than most would expect.... NOT because I expect Paul to start averaging 31/9/9 like LeBron... but more due to the fact that I think they will cancel each other out most of the time...with slight edges to LeBron for his ability to defend the 1, 2, 3, and 4 positions well. But still, with the posibility of an injury with his elbow... this positional match-up is close to a draw... not quite...but close.

You may want to argue that this is true for almost all of the positions... but it isn't. For instance... Center: Shaq has not been consistent since his injury, while Perkins has... plus Perkins has the advantage of youth... therefore, the Celtics get an advantage at that position because they can COUNT ON Perkins providing X-amount of plays, points,etc,etc. The Cavaliers (as shown in Chicago series) cannot "count" on anything from Shaq. Advantage C's.

The ONE position that makes the biggest difference for BOTH teams, is PF. Antawn and Kevin are both players that can be counted on for X-amount of plays, and X-amount of points/boards,etc... but there is the fact that Antawn is a stretch-4, who has range to the 3, yet can drive and post-up... those are his X-factors.... Kevin has X-factors within the paint out to 18 feet, and is a defensive force and leader. Then, when you look at the back-ups... Varejao, Baby, Wallace, Hickson... there are more X-factors... really the only position that we cannot say for sure (within range) what is going to happen, or who will win the match-up. Which is why I think it will determin the series.

Here is an even BETTER example:

Rondo averaged: 14pts/5-reb/10assists (averaged)
Mo averaged: (16pts/3-boards/5assists

Now... if Both players maintain those averages for each game... the position is a wash!

If rondo gets: 14 pts/5reb/10assists in game-1 ......and,
Williams gets: 16pts/4reb/6assists in game 1

Who wins the position match? Stats say Rondo... but in-reality, Mo wins the match-up because he held Rondo to his averages (which is what teams game-plan for), while Mo got an extra board and an extra assist above his averages.

So... even though the stats say Rondo was the better pg in the game (and he was), he still loses the match-up, because Mo was able to add more to his game than what is planned for.

Now... when I said Mo and Rondo's position would be a draw... I said it figuring that Rondo will do what he does, and Mo will do what he does... and it will end up being a draw... or nearly a draw, as I expect both to perform with a reasonable range of their averages.

I know this is complex analysis for some of you, but I am trying to explain it in lay-terms, so you see where I am coming from. Also, this perspective will give you another way to watch the match-ups, and allow you to better analyze how each player did w/o allowing biases to creep into your thinking.

[celticfan42487]

Well that's a lot of words.

But here's the truth: Ray Allen is our worst defender in the starting 5 by far.

[hadzilla]

Bucks fan here. I actually think the Bulls are better than you guys. They were banged up all year. They lost 10 in a row due to being without Noah, Rose, and Deng. If they win 5 or 6 of those games, they are pushing you guys for 4th or 5th seed. They played waaaay better than you after the all-star break and they have athletic bigs that matched up well with the Cavs.

You guys have the heart, though. You have also been there before.

Good luck.

[Geoffrey P]

Bucks fan here. I actually think the Bulls are better than you guys. They were banged up all year. They lost 10 in a row due to being without Noah, Rose, and Deng. If they win 5 or 6 of those games, they are pushing you guys for 4th or 5th seed. They played waaaay better than you after the all-star break and they have athletic bigs that matched up well with the Cavs.

You guys have the heart, though. You have also been there before.

Good luck.

I'm assuming you haven't seen the injury reports for the Celtics then.

[Dirty Water]

wow, them bspn "experts" are at it again .... lol

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2010/ma ... -cavaliers

It absolutely boggles my mind that one of the experts seriously believes that the Celtics will be swept.

[hadzilla]

Bucks fan here. I actually think the Bulls are better than you guys. They were banged up all year. They lost 10 in a row due to being without Noah, Rose, and Deng. If they win 5 or 6 of those games, they are pushing you guys for 4th or 5th seed. They played waaaay better than you after the all-star break and they have athletic bigs that matched up well with the Cavs.

You guys have the heart, though. You have also been there before.

Good luck.

I'm assuming you haven't seen the injury reports for the Celtics then.

Oh I was not aware KG, Rondo, and Pierce all missed 12 straight games together. Must have missed that time period.

[Darth Celtic]

Pierce missed 11 games, and said he played hurt for too many and should have taken much more time off, and his play after returning showed.

allen missed 2 games, oldest, still in best shape and healthiest player on team.

KG missed 13 games, and he too played many games with only 20 mins a game after returning and didn't even break 30 mins per game in the regular season.

Perk missed 4 games, but has been suffering from knee tendinitis for the last 3 months and played through it with pain and lack of explosiveness.

glen davis, member of 8 man rotation in playoffs missed 28 games.

tony allen, member of 8 man rotation missed 28 games.


rose missed 4 games, and avearged 37 mins a game, more then any celtic.
deng missed 12 games and still averaged 38mpg after
kirk missed 8 and noah 18, again, more then 30 mins per game played.

the celtics missed around same games, yet played the players who had the issues way less mins after. Doc's 11 man rotations and shortened mins for the vet starters = .500 ball playing teams hungry to beat the c's playing there stars 40+ mins a game when playing the celtics.

celtics playoff mpg
rondo, 42, pierce 38, allen 35, KG 35. perk 27 (he came in to defend JO and shut him down, but rarely played against shorter outside shooters like haslem meaning davis got more mins, and he still has bad knee)

this is why the c's are not a .500 team and worse the the bulls. WE saved our team for the playoffs, the bulls fought to the last game of the year just to get in.

[Percules]

Since when Paul Pierce is a triple-double threat? His last td was.. I don't know, before ages.

[Fencer reregistered]

Since when Paul Pierce is a triple-double threat? His last td was.. I don't know, before ages.

Before Rondo?

(Probably not literally.)

Pierce would be a triple double threat if, say, Eddie House were playing PG ... or Mo Williams.

[orlandomike]

I will tell you the truth, I don't like the Celtics, not that anyone cares or that it would be a surprise but I hope you guys win that series and shut LaQueen up. I hope those guys never win a championship.

[Manny Phresh]

I will tell you the truth, I don't like the Celtics, not that anyone cares or that it would be a surprise but I hope you guys win that series and shut LaQueen up. I hope those guys never win a championship.

I hope Mr. "It's my sixth year in the league and I still don't have anything resembling a post game whatsoever" never wins a championship either.