Retro POY '07-08 (Voting Complete)

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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#181 » by Silver Bullet » Thu Apr 29, 2010 10:51 pm

mysticbb wrote:
Silver Bullet wrote:He'd been passing to his team mates all series long and they kept missing open jumpers -


And how was it possible that his teammates had nearly 70 ppg on 55.1 ts% in that series, if they missed all their shots? While Bryant scored 26 on 50 ts%? I can tell you it is impossible to score on an above average scoring efficiency and miss all shots. ;)


TS% is a bit misleading

Derek Fisher shot 18.8% from 3 for the series.
Lamar odom shot 20% from the 3 for the series.
They shot a combined 5 for 21 -

When you consider the lineups they had at critical junctures during that series - You see how critical that is. If you look at the series game by game, you see that the Celtics kept collapsing more and more on Kobe with each passing game, because the Lakers outside shooters were not making them pay.

Look at the crucial game 4, where the Vujajic, Farmar, Turiaf and Walton shot a combined 3-19. Where Derek Fisher barely took any shots and passed up open 3's because he had no confidence in his shot.

Stats don't tell the whole story. Look at Game 4, where the Celtics came back from a 20 point deficit.

Look at this stretch, where they make a mistake virtually every possession.
10:36 15-37 Luke Walton misses 24-foot three point jumper
10:34 15-37
10:32 15-37
10:10 15-37 Luke Walton bad pass (Ray Allen steals)
10:03 15-37
10:00 15-37 Pau Gasol defensive rebound
9:55 15-37 Jordan Farmar misses layup
9:53 15-37
9:37 17-37
9:14 17-37 Luke Walton misses three point jumper
9:12 17-37
9:03 19-37
8:45 19-37 Ray Allen blocks Sasha Vujacic's 20-foot jumper
8:44 19-37 Trevor Ariza offensive rebound
8:37 19-40 Luke Walton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sasha Vujacic assists)
8:12 19-40 Trevor Ariza shooting foul (James Posey draws the foul)
8:12 21-40
7:56 21-42 Lamar Odom makes 3-foot two point shot (Kobe Bryant assists)
7:33 21-42
7:33 21-42 Kobe Bryant defensive rebound
7:24 21-42 Jordan Farmar misses layup
6:45 21-45 Sasha Vujacic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kobe Bryant assists)
6:24 21-45
6:24 21-45 Ronny Turiaf defensive rebound
6:03 21-45 Sasha Vujacic bad pass (Kevin Garnett steals)
5:56 21-45
5:50 21-45 Jordan Farmar misses 21-foot jumper
5:50 21-45
5:35 21-45
5:35 21-45 Lamar Odom defensive rebound
5:26 21-45 Kobe Bryant offensive foul (Paul Pierce draws the foul)
5:26 21-45 Kobe Bryant turnover
5:26
5:26 21-45
5:26 21-45 Vladimir Radmanovic enters the game for Jordan Farmar
5:13 21-45
5:13 21-45 Kobe Bryant defensive rebound
5:03 21-45 Sasha Vujacic misses 26-foot three point jumper
5:03 21-45 Lamar Odom offensive rebound
4:52 21-45 Kobe Bryant misses 27-foot three point jumper
4:52 21-45
4:41 23-45
4:24 23-45 Vladimir Radmanovic misses 27-foot three point jumper
3:57 26-45 Kobe Bryant misses layup
3:49 26-45 Vladimir Radmanovic shooting foul (James Posey draws the foul)
3:39 28-45 Pau Gasol misses 10-foot hook shot
3:11 31-45 Derek Fisher bad pass
2:58 33-45
2:35 33-47 Derek Fisher makes 3-foot two point shot

2:35 33-47
2:35
2:35 33-48 Derek Fisher makes free throw 1 of 1
2:15 33-48
2:15 33-48 Pau Gasol defensive rebound
2:03 33-50 Pau Gasol makes dunk (Lamar Odom assists)
1:47 33-50 Kobe Bryant illegal defense foul (3rd personal foul)
1:47 34-50
1:38 37-50
1:20 37-50 Kevin Garnett blocks Vladimir Radmanovic's layup
1:17 37-50
1:08 37-50
1:07 37-50 Pau Gasol defensive rebound
0:59 37-50
0:59 37-51 Derek Fisher makes free throw 1 of 2
0:59 37-52 Derek Fisher makes free throw 2 of 2
0:52 37-52 Kobe Bryant shooting foul (Paul Pierce draws the foul)
0:52 38-52
0:52 38-52 Sasha Vujacic enters the game for Kobe Bryant
0:52 38-52
0:52 38-52
0:52 39-52
0:39 39-52 Pau Gasol lost ball (P.J. Brown steals)
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#182 » by Silver Bullet » Thu Apr 29, 2010 10:56 pm

Sedale Threatt wrote:
Silver Bullet wrote:But seriously, penalising him for the Final is just sad.


Why? He played poorly. Those are the breaks. Athletics are beautiful in that it's a pretty bottom-line endeavor. You either win or you lose, perform or fail. In this case, it's pretty clear that he had a terrible series. Yes, it came against a historically good defense; so what? He's not the first player in the history of sports to be presented with a challenge.

LeBron had a crap series; marked him down for it. Kobe had a crap series too, so why should I give him a pass? That's not fair.

And yeah, I think the video is hugely biased, because he's taking a very specific angle in terms of the footage he's using. I don't think it's a stretch to think that someone with an anti-Kobe agenda could come up with a reel of the 78 shots he missed and 23 turnovers he committed in that series and paint a completely different picture.

"Now look at this possession. Kobe is just re-tah-ded with his thought process he-ah. Paul Pe-ahce just locks him down"


Well, You guys are focusing on his comments which are irrelevant. I posted that video to show how physically they played him and how he was surrounded by 3-4 defenders at all time, and how they were giving the Lakers outside shooters no respect at all.

I am not saying penalize Lebron and give Kobe a pass. I am saying, don't penalize either of them. Because it is unfair, to bump them down, when the other stars did not face the Celtics defense. Do you think Chris Paul wouldn't look like a noob against Rondo and two other Celtics doubling him.

Lebron did have something Kobe didn't have though. He had the Cavaliers team defense. Off the top of my head, they held the Celtics to 69, 77 and 81 points in the games they won. On the other hand, the Lakers held the Celtics to below 90 only once in the whole series.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#183 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Apr 29, 2010 10:58 pm

I would say that no one had a "clean" playoff run in 2008.

-Kobe had the best run, IMO, because he led LA through 3 straight 50+ win opponents to the Finals. He also had the best numbers of the Top 5-7 in the postseason. His Finals was subpar though.
-KG was good, but Pierce was the leader in the postseason. I think too much of the Celtic run was atributed to KG, and not enough on Pierce, Allen, and Rondo's emergence.
-Lebron was just not impressive in the post-season. Shooting 35.5% and averaging 5.3 turnovers against the Celts is really poor.
-Paul was good in the playoffs, but came up short against the Spurs.
-Duncan was stellar on defense, and off on offense.

Playoff numbers:

Code: Select all

Kobe    30 ppg 6 rpg  6 apg  48% FG, 58% TS, 25.0 PER, 3.2 WS
Paul    24 ppg 5 rpg  11 apg 50% FG, 57% TS, 30.7 PER, 2.9 WS
KG      20 ppg 11 rpg 3 apg  50% FG, 54% TS, 23.0 PER, 4.1 WS
Lebron  28 ppg 8 rpg  8 apg  41% FG, 53% TS, 24.3 PER, 2.2 WS
Duncan  20 ppg 15 rpg 3 apg  45% FG, 49% TS, 21.9 PER, 1.7 WS
Pierce  20 ppg 5 rpg  5 apg  44% FG, 57% TS, 17.4 PER, 3.0 WS (Finals MVP)

I would say Kobe was the best of the bunch. KG, Pierce, and Paul all have a case for #2. Lebron and Duncan has subpar playoff runs and round out the list.

Interestingly enough, the Top 3 players in the regualr season(Kobe,KG,Paul), all were Top 3 or 4 in the playoffs.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#184 » by bastillon » Thu Apr 29, 2010 10:59 pm

mysticbb wrote:Nash was playing good until the trade, the Suns were most certainly better without Shaquille O'Neal and Nash carrying the offensive load. While Nash's +/- numbers were slightly better than Nowitzki's, I have to take the boxscore numbers into account (from a statistical point of view). Nowitzki beats Nash out in those, especially in the playoffs in which Nash didn't show anything.


if you want to see Nash's value in the boxscore than you should look at his teammates ORtg. it's not an accident that they scoring career-high values in that metric.

elgee wrote:It's not an issue of demanding more. I've said before that individual offensive impact is more important than defensive impact. I give KG a huge amount of credit -- especially in terms of intangibles -- for anchoring an all-time defense. But again, basketball is an offensive sport. I think it's fair to question how big that impact is versus players who are clearly more reliable offensively. I thought KG exhibited some of the best help defense in the history of the league that year.


see this is where I can't agree with you. I think defense is just as important as the offense. you can dominate defensively as much as you can dominate offensively. there is actually quantifiable evidence to show this (on/off numbers) which in KG's case support this thesis.

elgee wrote:In other words, if KG's on-court defense were a little worse, the Celtics still might be the best defensive team in the league (although not historically good). If, say, LeBron James couldn't set up his teammates a few more times per game and his TS% dipped slightly, that Cleveland team would be in trouble.


big part of what made Garnett so great was how he approached the practice and how he forced the crap out of his teammates to devote and play as hard as they can. that vastly improved them off-the-court and whether KG was playing or not, they benefited as the team from his presence in Boston. I just don't think you can do that... his on court defense wasn't everything he meant to that team.

also, we could see what Celtics can do without KG and they weren't really close to lockdown defensive team. the big thing about 2008 Celtics is how little inside points they allowed. IIRC it was smth like 20-25 PPG in the playoffs from points in the paint. I remember that Bulls scored 40 PPG vs Celtics the year later. you can look that up. so without Garnett, their defense suffered on numerous levels and this was reflected in their team DRtg.

it's not true about LeBron either. he shot 35% FG and averaged over 5 TOV against the Celtics... and despite that, Cavs were still in the game. offense was not key to their success. my memory tells me they were bad offensive team and dominated with their defense which had led them already to finals appearance the year before. I just don't see how LeBron gets this much recognition when his particular contributions (vast majority of which were on offense) never led them anywhere. it was the team defense that was the catalyst to their success... and I don't think James had that big part in it.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#185 » by Silver Bullet » Thu Apr 29, 2010 10:59 pm

mysticbb wrote:
Silver Bullet wrote:But seriously, penalising him for the Final is just sad - They weren't playing defense nearly this well against the Cavs, and yet Lebron has nearly identical numbers. (Partially, they didn't had to, because Peirce is better suited to playing Lebron).


And these kind of statements are those which makes me angry, really. The overall Celtics defense was better suited for playing againt James and they done an incredible job on him. They forced the ball out of his hand or double him hard and forced turnover. James gets the same blame for the first 6 games in that series in my opinion as Bryant gets for the 6 in finals. Now, James gets a slightly edge here due to his awesome game 7 performance. You can't deny the fact that he played great and had not much help whatsover from his teammates.

Overall Bryant gets the edge over James in the playoffs. But James was clearly better during the regular season, even though he played on the less successful team. Garnett played best in my books in the playoffs and was the DPOY, which puts him ahead of Bryant overall, but it wasn't enought to put him ahead of James (even thouh the gap is rather small, wayyy smaller than in 2009 for example between #1 and #2). Chris Paul after that or Kobe Bryant, both are again not that far away from the 2nd spot. Behind those two is a larger gap to Nowitzki, Duncan and Nash.


Okay, don't get angry. I am not trying to cheat or make up dreamy scenarios just go get Bryant to 1. You will have to trust me on that. If he doesn't deserve to be at 1, I won't vote for him, just as I didn't last year.

But my argument is, and people don't take it seriously, because they take me as a Kobe homer rather than as a credible source. But the Celtics defense was a lot better in the Finals than it was in the 2nd round. To anybody who saw those playoffs, they were just on another planet in terms of intensity and defensive vigil in the Finals. Whereas, in the first two rounds, they were still struggling to find their groove. That and Cleveland's defense are the reasons they went 7 games. Not Lebron, eventhough he did have a memorable game 7.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#186 » by Sedale Threatt » Thu Apr 29, 2010 11:05 pm

Silver Bullet wrote:Well, You guys are focusing on his comments which are irrelevant. I posted that video to show how physically they played him and how he was surrounded by 3-4 defenders at all time, and how they were giving the Lakers outside shooters no respect at all.


No, I'm not. I very clearly referenced the footage he's using as well. There were nearly 300 minutes of basketball played in that series, and he was very careful in the 10 that he selected, in order to advance his agenda -- that Kobe didn't play poorly, when in fact, he clearly did.

Silver Bullet wrote:I am not saying penalize Lebron and give Kobe a pass. I am saying, don't penalize either of them. Because it is unfair, to bump them down, when the other stars did not face the Celtics defense. Do you think Chris Paul wouldn't look like a noob against Rondo and two other Celtics doubling him.


Sorry, I'm not interested in handing out asterisks in order to excuse poor play. You either get the job done or you don't. Beat the best to be the best, and all of that. Those two aren't the first players in history to face great defenses.

It's not like I'm crucifying either of them, either. They're still 2 and 3.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#187 » by An Unbiased Fan » Thu Apr 29, 2010 11:19 pm

mysticbb wrote:
And these kind of statements are those which makes me angry, really. The overall Celtics defense was better suited for playing againt James and they done an incredible job on him. They forced the ball out of his hand or double him hard and forced turnover. James gets the same blame for the first 6 games in that series in my opinion as Bryant gets for the 6 in finals. Now, James gets a slightly edge here due to his awesome game 7 performance. You can't deny the fact that he played great and had not much help whatsover from his teammates.

Lebron shot 32.5% for the first 6 games. He did have a great game 7, but overall I would say shooting 35.5% FG and averaging 5.3 turnovers a game was worse than Kobe in the Finals. Lebron had 3 games of 7+ turnovers.

Boston vs Celveland 2008:

Game 1 - Lebron 12 points (2-18) FG, 9 ast, 9 rebs, 10 turnovers
Game 2 - Lebron 21 points (6-24) FG, 6 ast, 5 rebs, 7 turnovers
Game 3 - Lebron 21 points (5-16) FG, 8 ast, 5 rebs, 2 turnovers
Game 4 - Lebron 21 points (7-20) FG, 13 ast, 6 rebs, 4 turnovers
Game 5 - Lebron 35 points (12-25) FG, 5 ast, 3 rebs, 4 turnovers
Game 6 - Lebron 32 points (9-23) FG, 6 ast, 12 rebs, 8 turnovers
Game 7 - Lebron 45 points (14-29) FG, 6 ast, 5 rebs, 2 turnovers

26.7 ppg/7.6 apg/6.4 rpg/ 5.3 tos 35.5% FG

Boston vs LA 2008:

Game 1 - Kobe 24 points (9-26) FG, 6 ast, 3 rebs, 4 turnovers
Game 2 - Kobe 30 points (11-23) FG, 8 ast, 4 rebs, 4 turnovers
Game 3 - Kobe 36 points (12-20) FG, 1 ast, 7 rebs, 3 turnovers
Game 4 - Kobe 17 points (6-19) FG, 10 ast, 4 rebs, 2 turnovers
Game 5 - Kobe 25 points (8-21) FG, 4 ast, 7 rebs, 6 turnovers
Game 6 - Kobe 22 points (7-22) FG, 1 ast, 3 rebs, 4 turnovers

25.7 ppg/5 apg/4.7 rpg/3.8 tos 40.5% FG
Overall Bryant gets the edge over James in the playoffs. But James was clearly better during the regular season, even though he played on the less successful team. Garnett played best in my books in the playoffs and was the DPOY, which puts him ahead of Bryant overall, but it wasn't enought to put him ahead of James (even thouh the gap is rather small, wayyy smaller than in 2009 for example between #1 and #2). Chris Paul after that or Kobe Bryant, both are again not that far away from the 2nd spot. Behind those two is a larger gap to Nowitzki, Duncan and Nash.

I'm confused, how was James "clearly" better during the regualr season. Everybody was arguing Kobe vs Paul that year. KG led Boston to the best record. Kobe was All-NBA & All-D (1st), and the MVP.

I think we all need to remember player progression, and that players grow from year to year. 2008 Lebron is not the same as 2010 Lebron. He wasn't playing great defense yet, he didn't have any mid range game yet. Alot of that came together after the 08' Olympics.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#188 » by ElGee » Thu Apr 29, 2010 11:23 pm

mysticbb wrote:
ElGee wrote:That's incorrect - there were times when Pierce guarded Kobe. Don't misconstrue funneling and help for not guarding someone. It was stated in the 09 thread LeBron didn't guard Hedo. He did at times. Pierce guarded Kobe at times, and he played him incredibly well. His strength and length bother him. The same thing happened during the regular season that year.


Not quite sure, can you point out certain scenes in which he guarded Bryant and done a good job? He was good at staying in front of him, but he always got the help rather quickly. I didn't have the impression that Pierce forced Bryant into the help defender, which would be necessary imho to call his job good. Ray Allen done a better job, at least in my memory.


Absolutely. Let's take the entire second half of the Game 4 comeback, when Pierce guards him the entire half:

Kobe was 3-8 against Pierce without help. 2 clear stopped penetrations. 2 deflections. 1 block. 2 fouls. 2 FT's. A number of ball-denials.

Some quote. Mark Jackson: "Pierce did a great job, limiting the amount of help needed [on Kobe]." Later Jackson said, "Outstanding job. We are watching some of the best defense on the floor by Pierce." Later, one more time in the half, "we're witnessing outstanding D." At the end of the game, Jackson "We've seen Shane Battier defend Kobe as well as anyone. Tonight, we saw Paul Pierce match it, and raise it."

Phil Jackson after the 3rd quarter: "Paul Pierce." Long pause. "What effort."

Highlights:
Kobe hits 2 difficult 22 footers with Pierce's hand in his face to start the half.

Pierce shuts Kobe's drive off, Kobe has to pass as the clock winds down - empty trip for LA.

PnR Kobe misses over Pierce and KG – Pierce right on it despite the screen nearly blocks it.

Pierce BLOCKS Kobe's fade, isolated on the wing, and grabs the ball leading to C's fastbreak.

Next trip, Kobe can barely get open and Pierce nearly steals the pass to him (had it, but slipped through his hands.)

2:41 of the 3rd, Kobe one v one on Pierce, drives right, misses runner with Pierce all over him.

1:51 Pierce denies the ball again, Kobe can barely get it. Ends up with it in the corner and Allen traps off his man – Gasol misses at the rim.

Next time down Kobe gets it on wing vs. Pierce, takes a number of dribbles, misses 22 footer – Pierce hand right in his face.

0:42 Kobe tries backdoor but Pierce denis off ball. They go PnR, Pierce stays with him, then switches off and contests Farmar 3 (airball) against the clock.

First trip of the 4th, Pierce shuts off Bryant's drive again, knocks ball away, Kobe gets it back and gets a screen, Pierce stays with him, Kobe finally passes into lane.

Next trip Bryant hits a jumper off a screen -- help was there and Pierce recovered arond screen to get a hand in on the shot.

Kobe goes post now, catches and goes middle – Pierce nearly blocks it and Bryant well short with the runner in lane (one v one again).

Next trip Kobe scores around a screen versus the help (Pierce was picked off).

Kobe catches near the corner on the next trip, goes right, Pierce cuts him off and Kobe dribbles it off his foot OB. They call a (dubious?) foul on Pierce.

Next trip (8:40) Pierce denis Kobe the ball TWICE and Odom forces a 3 against the clock. They couldnt get Kobe the ball.

Next time Kobe iso's on the wing, Kobe catches, Pierce with a hand in his face, Kobe makes J.

Next trip Kobe gets it, Pierce meets him at 3 line, Kobe goes middle, up and under leaves it short. Good D, the first time Kobe's had a decent look in the half!

Later, Pierce denies the dribble hand off play with Gasol and Kobe.

After Boston takes the lead, Kobe tries to drive and passes – no help defense, but Pierce stayed with him.

At 2:40 Kobe tries to drive and Pierce is just all over him, cutting him off. Kobe goes up to shoot at 8 feet in the lane and passes at the last second because Pierce is there for a block.

Next time Kobe drives lane and Pierce called for foul.

At 1:40 Kobe hits spinning shot in lane around Pierce and over KG's help – crazy shot by Bryant.

Total iso in at the top of floor on the next trip. Pierce funnels Kobe into KG help and Kobe passes. Fisher hits deep 2.


Again, I've never seen anyone defend Kobe Bryant like that.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#189 » by ElGee » Thu Apr 29, 2010 11:33 pm

bastillon wrote:
elgee wrote:It's not an issue of demanding more. I've said before that individual offensive impact is more important than defensive impact. I give KG a huge amount of credit -- especially in terms of intangibles -- for anchoring an all-time defense. But again, basketball is an offensive sport. I think it's fair to question how big that impact is versus players who are clearly more reliable offensively. I thought KG exhibited some of the best help defense in the history of the league that year.


see this is where I can't agree with you. I think defense is just as important as the offense. you can dominate defensively as much as you can dominate offensively. there is actually quantifiable evidence to show this (on/off numbers) which in KG's case support this thesis.

elgee wrote:In other words, if KG's on-court defense were a little worse, the Celtics still might be the best defensive team in the league (although not historically good). If, say, LeBron James couldn't set up his teammates a few more times per game and his TS% dipped slightly, that Cleveland team would be in trouble.


big part of what made Garnett so great was how he approached the practice and how he forced the crap out of his teammates to devote and play as hard as they can. that vastly improved them off-the-court and whether KG was playing or not, they benefited as the team from his presence in Boston. I just don't think you can do that... his on court defense wasn't everything he meant to that team.


Actually, the mean and std dev are smaller for def on/off than for offense. Which is suggesting that individual defenders don't have quite the same impact as individual offensive players. This is fairly large when we look at the players who play the most.

As for the other point, that's why I wrote "on-court" defense. That's part of my MVP-case for him. I'm not sure how to factor that into a POY ballot.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#190 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Apr 29, 2010 11:54 pm

The more I think of it the more I wouldn't be opposed to Lebron ranking 1st here
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#191 » by lorak » Thu Apr 29, 2010 11:56 pm

ElGee wrote:
Actually, the mean and std dev are smaller for def on/off than for offense. Which is suggesting that individual defenders don't have quite the same impact as individual offensive players. This is fairly large when we look at the players who play the most.


Very interesting point.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#192 » by mysticbb » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:02 am

Silver Bullet wrote:TS% is a bit misleading


Actually it is not, ts% tells you how efficient someone scored. That is the way to do it. Let me put is this way: The combination of ts% and turnover ratio explains the team ORtg exceptional well, (close to 99%). Misleading is concentrate on fg% or 3p% for selected players.

Silver Bullet wrote:Look at the crucial game 4, where the Vujajic, Farmar, Turiaf and Walton shot a combined 3-19. Where Derek Fisher barely took any shots and passed up open 3's because he had no confidence in his shot.


Vujacic went 1-9, which is the main reason for that. And yes, the bench played bad, didn't say anything different. BUT, the S5 played good, overall the Lakers support had 74 points on 54.3 ts%, that is not enough to overcome 17 points on 40 ts% by your best player. It never will be. Lakers support was average for that, Bryant was bad.

Silver Bullet wrote:Stats don't tell the whole story. Look at Game 4, where the Celtics came back from a 20 point deficit.

Look at this stretch, where they make a mistake virtually every possession.


Well, it is rather interesting, because you pointed out all "bad" things. The Lakers still managed to score 15 points, 0 by Bryant.

10:36 15-37 Luke Walton misses 24-foot three point jumper
10:34 15-37
10:32 15-37
10:10 15-37 Luke Walton bad pass (Ray Allen steals)
10:03 15-37
10:00 15-37 Pau Gasol defensive rebound
9:55 15-37 Jordan Farmar misses layup
9:53 15-37
9:37 17-37
9:14 17-37 Luke Walton misses three point jumper
9:12 17-37
9:03 19-37
8:45 19-37 Ray Allen blocks Sasha Vujacic's 20-foot jumper
8:44 19-37 Trevor Ariza offensive rebound
8:37 19-40 Luke Walton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sasha Vujacic assists)
8:12 19-40 Trevor Ariza shooting foul (James Posey draws the foul)
8:12 21-40
7:56 21-42 Lamar Odom makes 3-foot two point shot (Kobe Bryant assists)
7:33 21-42
7:33 21-42 Kobe Bryant defensive rebound
7:24 21-42 Jordan Farmar misses layup
6:45 21-45 Sasha Vujacic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kobe Bryant assists)
6:24 21-45
6:24 21-45 Ronny Turiaf defensive rebound
6:03 21-45 Sasha Vujacic bad pass (Kevin Garnett steals)
5:56 21-45
5:50 21-45 Jordan Farmar misses 21-foot jumper
5:50 21-45
5:35 21-45
5:35 21-45 Lamar Odom defensive rebound
5:26 21-45 Kobe Bryant offensive foul (Paul Pierce draws the foul)
5:26 21-45 Kobe Bryant turnover
5:26
5:26 21-45
5:26 21-45 Vladimir Radmanovic enters the game for Jordan Farmar
5:13 21-45
5:13 21-45 Kobe Bryant defensive rebound
5:03 21-45 Sasha Vujacic misses 26-foot three point jumper
5:03 21-45 Lamar Odom offensive rebound
4:52 21-45 Kobe Bryant misses 27-foot three point jumper
4:52 21-45
4:41 23-45
4:24 23-45 Vladimir Radmanovic misses 27-foot three point jumper
3:57 26-45 Kobe Bryant misses layup
3:49 26-45 Vladimir Radmanovic shooting foul (James Posey draws the foul)
3:39 28-45 Pau Gasol misses 10-foot hook shot
3:11 31-45 Derek Fisher bad pass
2:58 33-45
2:35 33-47 Derek Fisher makes 3-foot two point shot
2:35 33-47
2:35
2:35 33-48 Derek Fisher makes free throw 1 of 1
2:15 33-48
2:15 33-48 Pau Gasol defensive rebound
2:03 33-50 Pau Gasol makes dunk (Lamar Odom assists)
1:47 33-50 Kobe Bryant illegal defense foul (3rd personal foul)
1:47 34-50
1:38 37-50
1:20 37-50 Kevin Garnett blocks Vladimir Radmanovic's layup
1:17 37-50
1:08 37-50
1:07 37-50 Pau Gasol defensive rebound
0:59 37-50
0:59 37-51 Derek Fisher makes free throw 1 of 2
0:59 37-52 Derek Fisher makes free throw 2 of 2
0:52 37-52 Kobe Bryant shooting foul (Paul Pierce draws the foul)
0:52 38-52
0:52 38-52 Sasha Vujacic enters the game for Kobe Bryant
0:52 38-52
0:52 38-52
0:52 39-52
0:39 39-52 Pau Gasol lost ball (P.J. Brown steals)

It is not like Bryant played incredible well and only his support sucked, if Bryant would have used his opportunities very well, he would have get a pass for this, that is for sure, but he didn't.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#193 » by mysticbb » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:06 am

bastillon wrote:if you want to see Nash's value in the boxscore than you should look at his teammates ORtg. it's not an accident that they scoring career-high values in that metric.


I know Nash's value very well, but as I said, I never had the impression he played well enough to be my choice over Nowitzki. Right up there with Nowitzki and Duncan? Yes, that is arguable, but not better. The similar thing goes out for Duncan, which is the reason I put Nowitzki on 5.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#194 » by Silver Bullet » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:09 am

mysticbb wrote:
Silver Bullet wrote:TS% is a bit misleading


Actually it is not, ts% tells you how efficient someone scored. That is the way to do it. Let me put is this way: The combination of ts% and turnover ratio explains the team ORtg exceptional well, (close to 99%). Misleading is concentrate on fg% or 3p% for selected players.

Silver Bullet wrote:Look at the crucial game 4, where the Vujajic, Farmar, Turiaf and Walton shot a combined 3-19. Where Derek Fisher barely took any shots and passed up open 3's because he had no confidence in his shot.


Vujacic went 1-9, which is the main reason for that. And yes, the bench played bad, didn't say anything different. BUT, the S5 played good, overall the Lakers support had 74 points on 54.3 ts%, that is not enough to overcome 17 points on 40 ts% by your best player. It never will be. Lakers support was average for that, Bryant was bad.

Silver Bullet wrote:Stats don't tell the whole story. Look at Game 4, where the Celtics came back from a 20 point deficit.

Look at this stretch, where they make a mistake virtually every possession.


Well, it is rather interesting, because you pointed out all "bad" things. The Lakers still managed to score 15 points, 0 by Bryant.

10:36 15-37 Luke Walton misses 24-foot three point jumper
10:34 15-37
10:32 15-37
10:10 15-37 Luke Walton bad pass (Ray Allen steals)
10:03 15-37
10:00 15-37 Pau Gasol defensive rebound
9:55 15-37 Jordan Farmar misses layup
9:53 15-37
9:37 17-37
9:14 17-37 Luke Walton misses three point jumper
9:12 17-37
9:03 19-37
8:45 19-37 Ray Allen blocks Sasha Vujacic's 20-foot jumper
8:44 19-37 Trevor Ariza offensive rebound
8:37 19-40 Luke Walton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Sasha Vujacic assists)
8:12 19-40 Trevor Ariza shooting foul (James Posey draws the foul)
8:12 21-40
7:56 21-42 Lamar Odom makes 3-foot two point shot (Kobe Bryant assists)
7:33 21-42
7:33 21-42 Kobe Bryant defensive rebound
7:24 21-42 Jordan Farmar misses layup
6:45 21-45 Sasha Vujacic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kobe Bryant assists)
6:24 21-45
6:24 21-45 Ronny Turiaf defensive rebound
6:03 21-45 Sasha Vujacic bad pass (Kevin Garnett steals)
5:56 21-45
5:50 21-45 Jordan Farmar misses 21-foot jumper
5:50 21-45
5:35 21-45
5:35 21-45 Lamar Odom defensive rebound
5:26 21-45 Kobe Bryant offensive foul (Paul Pierce draws the foul)
5:26 21-45 Kobe Bryant turnover
5:26
5:26 21-45
5:26 21-45 Vladimir Radmanovic enters the game for Jordan Farmar
5:13 21-45
5:13 21-45 Kobe Bryant defensive rebound
5:03 21-45 Sasha Vujacic misses 26-foot three point jumper
5:03 21-45 Lamar Odom offensive rebound
4:52 21-45 Kobe Bryant misses 27-foot three point jumper
4:52 21-45
4:41 23-45
4:24 23-45 Vladimir Radmanovic misses 27-foot three point jumper
3:57 26-45 Kobe Bryant misses layup
3:49 26-45 Vladimir Radmanovic shooting foul (James Posey draws the foul)
3:39 28-45 Pau Gasol misses 10-foot hook shot
3:11 31-45 Derek Fisher bad pass
2:58 33-45
2:35 33-47 Derek Fisher makes 3-foot two point shot
2:35 33-47
2:35
2:35 33-48 Derek Fisher makes free throw 1 of 1
2:15 33-48
2:15 33-48 Pau Gasol defensive rebound
2:03 33-50 Pau Gasol makes dunk (Lamar Odom assists)
1:47 33-50 Kobe Bryant illegal defense foul (3rd personal foul)
1:47 34-50
1:38 37-50
1:20 37-50 Kevin Garnett blocks Vladimir Radmanovic's layup
1:17 37-50
1:08 37-50
1:07 37-50 Pau Gasol defensive rebound
0:59 37-50
0:59 37-51 Derek Fisher makes free throw 1 of 2
0:59 37-52 Derek Fisher makes free throw 2 of 2
0:52 37-52 Kobe Bryant shooting foul (Paul Pierce draws the foul)
0:52 38-52
0:52 38-52 Sasha Vujacic enters the game for Kobe Bryant
0:52 38-52
0:52 38-52
0:52 39-52
0:39 39-52 Pau Gasol lost ball (P.J. Brown steals)

It is not like Bryant played incredible well and only his support sucked, if Bryant would have used his opportunities very well, he would have get a pass for this, that is for sure, but he didn't.



We are arguing two different things -

The Celtics were able to collapse on Kobe because the Lakers outside shooters were unable to make the Celtics pay for collapsing on Kobe - TS% has nothing to do with this.

At one end you say the Lakers lost because of Kobe's poor decision making and then you are saying he didn't shoot enough and scored 0 points in the 2nd quarter ?
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#195 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:10 am

mysticbb wrote:
bastillon wrote:mysticbb, how about Nash vs Nowitzki ?


Nash was playing good until the trade, the Suns were most certainly better without Shaquille O'Neal and Nash carrying the offensive load. While Nash's +/- numbers were slightly better than Nowitzki's, I have to take the boxscore numbers into account (from a statistical point of view). Nowitzki beats Nash out in those, especially in the playoffs in which Nash didn't show anything.


I don't think picking Dirk there is an unreasonable pick, but I will see a bit about how I see it:

-As mentioned, Nash is a bit better from a +/- perspective. (Though Dirk's good too)

-Dirk being better in the box score? Well, two different roles, tough to compare for me. Here's what I'll say, I'd understand being less impressed with Nash if you are reluctant to go with a guy who can't take over as a scorer. Thing is, Nash has acted like a volume scorer in the clutch, pretty much since he's been in Phoenix. Example here's the clutch data for '07-08 according to 82 games:

http://82games.com/CSORT11.HTM

Comparing Dirk & Nash. In clutch time, Dirk scores 46.0 points per 48 minutes - while Nash scores 40.3. So not saying Dirk doesn't still score bigger, but with Nash you've got a guy leading all-world offenses with himself having all-world efficiency, and who can go big when he needs to.

Re: playoffs. Yeah, if it's a tie in the regular season, then Dirk takes it with the playoffs. Just generally though, it'd have to be pretty close in the regular season to sway my opinion toward a guy whose team who lost in 5 games in the first round to a team that lost in the next round.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#196 » by mysticbb » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:14 am

An Unbiased Fan wrote:I'm confused, how was James "clearly" better during the regualr season. Everybody was arguing Kobe vs Paul that year. KG led Boston to the best record. Kobe was All-NBA & All-D (1st), and the MVP.


Don't want to get into a pointless discussion, just want to point out that the MVP is not the best player award. And I personally don't really care about All-Defense team awards, usually they go to the best offensive players with the reputation to be good defenders. There is also no All-Offense team, All-NBA incorperates both; offense and defense.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#197 » by Baller 24 » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:18 am

Dr Mufasa wrote:The more I think of it the more I wouldn't be opposed to Lebron ranking 1st here


Exactly, IMO it's down to either KG, Kobe, or Paul. I'm giving Paul and KG the first two spots for sure though, Kobe although he had the number 1 seed in the west before Pau arrived, the Lakers in 05/06, and 06/07 got out to similarly "hot" starts, before they cooled down. Pau helped tremendously defensively in the playoffs, he basically limited Duncan and Boozer, by a good margin.

Boozer v Gasol
(FG%/REB/PF/PTS) --- averaged over 5 fouls per game
.429 14 6 15
.300 5 4 10
.571 20 4 27
.333 12 4 14
.375 12 4 18
.313 14 6 12

Duncan v Gasol
(FG%/REB/AST/PTS)
.480 18 2 30
.429 16 4 12
.471 21 5 22
.385 17 3 29
.368 15 10 19

Like many have noted, he dominated defensively, but was obviously limited offensively, and Gasol was doing this ALL playoff long, including the Finals against KG.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#198 » by mysticbb » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:21 am

Silver Bullet wrote:The Celtics were able to collapse on Kobe because the Lakers outside shooters were unable to make the Celtics pay for collapsing on Kobe - TS% has nothing to do with this.


In certain stretches? Yes. But even in that stretch you mentioned, the Lakers made a couple of baskets after Bryant made the pass.

Silver Bullet wrote:At one end you say the Lakers lost because of Kobe's poor decision making and then you are saying he didn't shoot enough and scored 0 points in the 2nd quarter ?


I said he didn't score, and he didn't played exceptional well during that stretch anyway. I also don't see the point in arguing about specific plays, when the overall picture is the question here. Bryant, more often than not, made the wrong decision or was too late with his decision when he had the ball in his hand. He forced too often his own shot in the end instead of making the right play. You can't tell me that Bryant hadn't the courtvision to see the double teams coming, well, maybe I overrate his courtvision here, but I always thought highly of those kind of play making abilities, just the lack of decision making, which made it always more difficult for him.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#199 » by ElGee » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:26 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
mysticbb wrote:
bastillon wrote:mysticbb, how about Nash vs Nowitzki ?


Nash was playing good until the trade, the Suns were most certainly better without Shaquille O'Neal and Nash carrying the offensive load. While Nash's +/- numbers were slightly better than Nowitzki's, I have to take the boxscore numbers into account (from a statistical point of view). Nowitzki beats Nash out in those, especially in the playoffs in which Nash didn't show anything.


I don't think picking Dirk there is an unreasonable pick, but I will see a bit about how I see it:

-As mentioned, Nash is a bit better from a +/- perspective. (Though Dirk's good too)

-Dirk being better in the box score? Well, two different roles, tough to compare for me. Here's what I'll say, I'd understand being less impressed with Nash if you are reluctant to go with a guy who can't take over as a scorer. Thing is, Nash has acted like a volume scorer in the clutch, pretty much since he's been in Phoenix. Example here's the clutch data for '07-08 according to 82 games:

http://82games.com/CSORT11.HTM

Comparing Dirk & Nash. In clutch time, Dirk scores 46.0 points per 48 minutes - while Nash scores 40.3. So not saying Dirk doesn't still score bigger, but with Nash you've got a guy leading all-world offenses with himself having all-world efficiency, and who can go big when he needs to.

Re: playoffs. Yeah, if it's a tie in the regular season, then Dirk takes it with the playoffs. Just generally though, it'd have to be pretty close in the regular season to sway my opinion toward a guy whose team who lost in 5 games in the first round to a team that lost in the next round.


My issue with Nash over Dirk -- and it is a close contest -- is Dirk basically murders Nash in the advanced metrics in regular season and playoffs. His playoffs were better. Phoenix wasn't the same after Duncan's 3 in G1 and I think in other seasons Nash has a better response to that. He never really did from what I recall. Dallas was a mess too post-Golden State and the Kidd trade muddled matters, I just think Dirk maintained a lot of regular season value despite this.

So, in another really close race, those elements all point toward Dirk. I suppose if you didn't think it was that close and Nash inherently carries more value running his offensive dynasty, then Nash makes sense.
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Re: Retro POY '07-08 

Post#200 » by An Unbiased Fan » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:26 am

mysticbb wrote:
An Unbiased Fan wrote:I'm confused, how was James "clearly" better during the regualr season. Everybody was arguing Kobe vs Paul that year. KG led Boston to the best record. Kobe was All-NBA & All-D (1st), and the MVP.


Don't want to get into a pointless discussion, just want to point out that the MVP is not the best player award.

I agree 100% that the MVP isn't a best player award, though I think it does reflect somewhat Kobe's impact that year.
And I personally don't really care about All-Defense team awards, usually they go to the best offensive players with the reputation to be good defenders. There is also no All-Offense team, All-NBA incorperates both; offense and defense.

Fair enough, but would you agree that Kobe was a better defender in 2008 than Lebron?

I just wanted to hear your arguments as to why you though Lebron was clearly better that year.
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