Retro POY '06-07 (Voting Complete)

[bastillon]

interesting. I think Nowitzki was partly responsible for their poor defense as well. I've seen you mentioning opp PER, but who was playing at center for Golden State ? Biedrins ? Mavs probably gave up million pts in the paint and that's on Dirk.

[mysticbb]

interesting. I think Nowitzki was partly responsible for their poor defense as well. I've seen you mentioning opp PER, but who was playing at center for Golden State ? Biedrins ? Mavs probably gave up million pts in the paint and that's on Dirk.

Actually Nowitzki played around 40% of his time at center against the Warriors. The OppPER was 9.6. He gave up 13.4 as PF. He mostly played against Harrington, when he was the center. But overall the Mavericks defense really suffered when Nowitzki played center, because at those times they played Howard as PF, who can't defend guys like Jackson (in the post) or Harrington.

It was the complete defensive scheme which failed. The Warriors scored 186 of their 502 points from the field due to 3pt shots. They had tons of long 2pt shots made by Jackson, Richardson and Davis. Other then that they had a lot of points in transition.

Nowitzki should get blame for that series, but most certainly not more than Johnson or the support.

[bastillon]

how would Mavs ORtg look like if Nowitzki played by his normal standards ? (TS% and TO-rate)

[mysticbb]

how would Mavs ORtg look like if Nowitzki played by his normal standards ? (TS% and TO-rate)

Under the assumption that Nowitzki would have got the same amount of possession the overall ORtg of the team would have been 108.9, still not enough to beat 112.8 of the Warriors. Nowitzki would have scored 18 points more assuming his "not committed turnovers" would have led to his own scoring opportunities. That makes 609 points overall for the Mavericks in 559 possessions for the series.
Knowing his playing time and assuming that stays the same, we also assume in those other 49 minutes his teammates are only create those 95.7 ORtg, that would mean his OnCourt ORtg would be 111.6. As I said even if Nowitzki would have played as efficient as he usually was at this time, it wouldn't have be enough overall.

[bastillon]

so who's responsible for their defensive collapse ? just Avery ? Nowitzki being the only big on a team that's awful defensively should also get some blame. after all, bigs are responsible for team defense as perimeter players don't have that much impact. it IS interesting though. what you discovered strongly argues with the popular notion that Nowitzki's bad shooting led them to this loss.

[mysticbb]

so who's responsible for their defensive collapse ? just Avery ? Nowitzki being the only big on a team that's awful defensively should also get some blame.

First of all the team defense is mainly due to the team defensive scheme. If you have a great scheme, you can even create very good defense with not so good individual defenders. Look at the Charlotte Bobcats for example. They didn't make really huge changes, most certainly didn't add a defensive anchor, but they went from being 20th in the league to 7th in league to 1st in the league in DRtg within 3 seasons.

It is obviously the coaches job to get that done, he should get the most blame for that. BUT Nowitzki is also not a great defensive player, even though he done a good job against Harrington and an okish job overall. Thus Nowitzki has take blame for that, but blaming him for the bad effort by their perimeter defenders and for that bad transition defense is a little bit too much.

Nowitzki should also get punished for his game 6 performance. He was awful in that game. But, as I mentioned before, there was the mental influence of his father's surgery, which can at least explain part of it. Just as an information: Nowitzki faced elimination in the playoffs 20 times, take that game 6 out and he was 29.7/11.8/2.7 on 62.3 ts% and with a 6.1 turnover rate in those games, the Mavericks have a 11-8 record in those games. Now compare that to the 8/10/2 with 27.1 ts% and 15.2 turnover rate in that game 6. Everyone with at least a little bit of common sense should see that this game 6 was in no way the usually Nowitzki in elimination games. And people are using that game to make up their whole opinion about him being a choker.
Should have the surgery of his father that kind of impact? No, it shouldn't, but at least it is human imho.

Overall Nowitzki dropped from being my #1 in the regular season with a fairly good margin to #2 with just a little bit ahead of James, Bryant and Nash at the end.

[Silver Bullet]

some great posts mystic - I think Dirk moved up a spot or two on my list -

[Doctor MJ]

My vote:

1. Duncan
2. Nash
3. LeBron
4. Kobe
5. Dirk

Duncan, this was his first year without injury in a few years, and to me he was just so damn solid. His numbers may not look that big in general, but in general they is nothing to complain about, and when the team really needed him (against Phoenix) he was utterly dominant on both sides of the court.

Nash, to me this was him at his most comfortable with his abilities - and when the team lost to the Spurs, Nash was playing great. I consider the Suns to be clearly the second most accomplished team of the year, and Nash the clear superstar of the team. I think I've said enough already about my thoughts on Nash, but just generally, I've never understood how you could watch him and not think he was having superstar impact.

LeBron & Kobe, I go back & forth here. Both of them fell off a bit this year imho. I saw them as a step below Duncan & Nash (& Dirk before the playoffs). LeBron wins in a tiebreak after upsetting his way to the finals.

Dirk, most interesting guy to think about this year. Had we held this vote after the '07 season, he wouldn't have been in my top 5. Having had a few more years to watch him though, I no longer make a categorical judgement on the guy. With that said, I'm kinda stunned to see people having him as high as #2. To me a guy who only leads his team to the first round, and has a terrible series against a mediocre team in that first round is not really a strong POY candidate. Top 5 okay, but other superstars clearly accomplished more this year.

Honorable Mention:

Parker & Ginobili - I don't buy the argument that Duncan should be knocked for how good these two guys are, but these two are some great complementary players to have by your side. 3 titles the trio has together, they deserve some love.

Baron Davis - Has to get some mention for what he and the Warriors did. Baron wasn't just great in the post-season, he was legitimately an all-star worthy player during the regular season. I tend to smack the guy around pretty hard for his shot selection, but credit where credit is due.

Carlos Boozer - Well, not all WCF appearances are created equally, but Boozer was a strong force for the Jazz all year long, and was really the best player on the court in either of the Jazz' first two series in the playoffs.

Garnett - Still a superstar. I don't have a problem having a non-playoff guy in my top 5, and he was a strong candidate, but I can't put him above the 5 guys I picked.

Jason Kidd - Still stellar after all these years.

[Sedale Threatt]

Final

1. Duncan. It's a measure of how under appreciated he is that he has basically everything you're looking for -- great regular season, great postseason, led team to a title -- and he's not a lock.

2. Bryant. Was vacillating between him and James, and I went with the home team as I got to see him most every night. This was the last season where I thought Kobe was better.

3. James. See above. Great season, but I'm not going to give him much credit for leading Cleveland to the Finals considering how mediocre the East was that year.

4. Nash. I always seem to sell him short, and I can't figure out why as I really, really like him as a player, and acknowledge his impact. I just think Bryant and James were better players.

5. Nowitzki. DMJ sums it up for me -- a guy who only leads his team to the first round, and has a terrible series against a mediocre team, is not really a strong POY candidate.

[mysticbb]

Top 5 okay, but other superstars clearly accomplished more this year.

Who besides Duncan? Everyone else also failed to win it all. And having James on 3 while he played even worse than Nowitzki in the finals than Nowitzki against the Warriors contradicts your argument here.

[Sedale Threatt]

He got a hell of a lot further, though, with some pretty epic moments along the way.

[mysticbb]

He got a hell of a lot further, though, with some pretty epic moments along the way.

Well, in your case it is even less cohesive considering that you don't give James much credit for that anyway.

And having Bryant at #2 while he also lost in the first round makes it even harder to understand.

[Sedale Threatt]

Well, in your case it is even less cohesive considering that you don't give James much credit for that anyway.

And having Bryant at #2 while he also lost in the first round makes it even harder to understand.

No. I'm simply trying to explain the difference in a head-up context. LeBron played pretty well, with a pretty historic performance, and then sucked. Dirk just sucked, right off the bat.

Regarding Bryant, he probably dipped a little from the regular season, but only slightly in comparison to Nowitzki. Plus, the circumstances couldn't have been any more different, with a 7 losing to a 2 as opposed to a 1 losing to an 8.

Totally different circumstances, in my opinion.

[NO-KG-AI]

Nice shout out to Boozer Doc. He gets no love, and it was his play that advanced the Jazz.

[sp6r=underrated]

Nice shout out to Boozer Doc. He gets no love, and it was his play that advanced the Jazz.

I think what hurts Boozer, is that Deron surpassed him quickly as a player.People have a tendency to retroactively go back and make Deron the best player on Utah since Boozer was never really pegged for greatness in his career and Deron came in with high expectations.

[mysticbb]

No. I'm simply trying to explain the difference in a head-up context. LeBron played pretty well, with a pretty historic performance, and then sucked. Dirk just sucked, right off the bat.

So, basically you through a 67 wins seasons in which Nowitzki was the only player on the Mavericks roster with a negative Off-Court value away, because he had one really awful game against the Warriors and didn't play up to his high standard in 4 others.

http://www.82games.com/0607/0607DAL.HTM

To understand that point further: Without Nowitzki on the court the Mavericks would have had a losing record. But well, the supporting cast during that season was so good, that they barely had a better scoring efficiency than league average without Nowitzki (54.5 ts% vs. 54.1 ts%), same goes for the turnover ratio. Winning 67 games with a bunch of average players has to count for something, at least for me.

[Doctor MJ]

Top 5 okay, but other superstars clearly accomplished more this year.

Who besides Duncan? Everyone else also failed to win it all. And having James on 3 while he played even worse than Nowitzki in the finals than Nowitzki against the Warriors contradicts your argument here.

Spurs != Warriors. I don't know what to say beyond that regarding LeBron's finals.

Nash is a guy who I conidered a VERY close 2nd place to Dirk in the regular season. Whenever I saw them head to head, Nash looked better. Anyone else remember that epic Mavs-Suns game where Nash led a comeback by scoring 10 points in the last minute, and then clinched the game in overtime with as good of a defensive play as you'll ever see?

Kobe? Well, I guess he and LeBron both, it kinda goes like this. I think in this mini-era, these guys took more on than Dirk. That's not necessarily a good thing. I'm always on Kobe about not making better use of his teammates. But when Dirk doesn't end up getting any further, with a stronger supporting cast, and playing really badly against a very mediocre team, Dirk does not get the nod. I don't even consider it very close.

[mysticbb]

:-? Spurs != Warriors. I don't know what to say beyond that regarding LeBron's finals.

Well, I guess you didn't read my posts in which I explained that the Mavericks didn't lose to the Warriors mainly because of Nowitzki's less efficient than usual game, but because the Warriors beat the Mavericks from the outside. Lack of perimeter and transition defense was the key for the Mavericks losses, not the offense while Nowitzki was on the court. Those 108.9 ORtg with Nowitzki on the court should have been enough against a "mediocre team", but obviously the Warriors were able to generate a 112.8 ORtg. As I showed even with a normal efficient Nowitzki the Mavericks would have still have a way worse ORtg than the Warriors. Thus they would have still lost that series with an 58 ts% and 7.5 turnover-rate Nowitzki (his usual efficiency). You can blame Nowitzki for not being a great perimeter or transition defender, maybe he should have contested the outside shots by Davis, Jackson, Richardson, etc. better.

But well, who cares about reasons when he has made up his mind beforehand.

[bastillon]

Anyone else remember that epic Mavs-Suns game where Nash led a comeback by scoring 10 points in the last minute, and then clinched the game in overtime with as good of a defensive play as you'll ever see?

14th march 2007 and I don't even have to look that up

Mysticbb, let me get this straight: you're not punishing Nowitzki for sucking offensively because his team was great when he was on the court and you don't punish his defense even though he was the only big on a team that was atrocious defensively in that series because defense is about schemes ? that's some terrible excuses.

the more you're trying to justify him, the more I think he doesn't deserve to be in the TOP5.

----------------------------------------------

interesting to note: Spurs led the league in SRS, Suns were right behind Mavs for 3rd. Duncan is really a clear-cut #1 to me.

I don't think I'll change my mind so,
my final ranking:
1.Duncan
2.Nash
3.Kobe
4.James
5.Dirk

[mysticbb]

Mysticbb, let me get this straight: you're not punishing Nowitzki for sucking offensively because his team was great when he was on the court and you don't punish his defense even though he was the only big on a team that was atrocious defensively in that series because defense is about schemes ? that's some terrible excuses.

I punish him, that is the reason he is not the #1, a position he had after the regular season by a good margin.

the more you're trying to justify him, the more I think he doesn't deserve to be in the TOP5.

MVP of the season, best boxscore metrics of the season, 3rd best +/- values, and yet, he shouldn't even be in the Top5? Well, that is the reason why I think Nowitzki is heavily underrated by people here on the board.