mysticbb wrote:ElGee wrote:Dirk does help with spacing, but I think his offensive value is a shade behind other elite players because he doesn't create as much for his teammates.
Nowitzki off the ball creates more for his temmates than most other elite offensive players. Why? Because of his ability to set screens very effectively. He creates open shots via spacing and screens. The high pick&roll by Nowitzki and Terry was probably the most efficient play down the stretch in recent history. Whenever the game was close the Mavericks went to that two-men-game and were able to close out games. Especially in 2007, when Nowitzki had the highest +/- per 48 minutes in clutch situations, he scored 46.1 pp48 on 61 ts%, he was more efficient in clutch situations than in average that season, he literally never turned the ball over (3.2 turnover rate!) in clutch situations. That is incredible. His team outscored the opponents in average by 29.6 points in those kind of late game situations. That was the main reason the Mavericks were able to win 67 games despite the fact that their average scoring margin would have indicated "only" 61 wins. A similar thing happened in this season (2009/10).
To say that Nowitzi can't create for his teammates when his scoring is off, is one of the biggest myth about Nowitzki (next to: he is a weak rebounder).
ElGee wrote:He loves that high post, and he'll start on the wing or near the block at times, but if you can defend him without sending a double, their offense becomes a little more stagnant. Bowen had this effect. So did Stephen Jackson. I've never checked his numbers against those opponents and teams, but my guess would be the Mavs ORtg is below their average.
Well, you should have probably checked that before, because that would have not let you fall into the trap. It is a myth that Jackson can defend Nowitzki 1on1, he never done that effectively. In that playoffs series Nowitzki was not defended 1on1, but with double and triple teams. Watch those games and then compare the defensive structure with that of the Pistons in the late 80's against Jordan, it is nearly the same. One defender was ALWAYS on Nowitzki and a 2nd defender was always close for the double. When Nowitzki got the ball the 2nd defender came over so quickly, that there were nearly no 1on1 situations. Now every player of the Warriors had their eyes on Nowitzki, when Nowitzki put the ball on the floor the closest defender came over for the triple team. They completely collapsed on him when he was close to the paint with the ball in his hand. They forced the ball out of his hand or forced turnovers. Nowitzki still had a reasonable turnover rate of 9.7, well above his usually average, but still better than the league average of 11.8. When Nowitzki was on the floor the Mavericks Offense had a 108.9 ORtg during that series, when he was off it was 95.7. Seriously, it wasn't because of Nowitzki's lack of scoring or not that efficient game why the Mavericks lost. They lost that series, because even with that kind of coverage on Nowitzki the rest of the Mavericks weren't able to create enough offense AND, a more important point, their perimeter and transition defense sucked bad time. Watch how many open 3's the Warriors are taking in transition or with easy moves on the perimeter. Josh Howard's direct opponent had an average of 22.1 PER (played mostly against Jackson, Barnes or Richardson), Devin Harris had a 29.6 OppPER. A team can't win when your perimeter defense and transistion defense is so bad. Now you can come up with the claim that is Nowitzki's fault, because he isn't a defensive anchor, well the Warriors didn't beat the Mavericks inside, in fact Nowitzki's opponent had a 11.9 PER, but from the outside.
I checked the games Nowitzki vs. Bowen and Nowitzki vs. Jackson (numvers are per 36 minutes):
Bowen: 21.5/8.5/2.4 on 56 ts% and 7.1 turnover rate, the Mavs had an average ORtg of 107.1 in those games. If you combine the Mavericks average ORtg and the opponents DRtg (mostly for the San Antonio Spurs), you will expect a 105.4 ORtg for the Mavericks. Going by the record you would expect 16 wins in those 33 games, but the Mavericks came up with 17. Nowitzki's average numbers for that timespan: 23.2/8.7/2.7 on 58 ts% and 7.7 turnover rate. Thus Nowitzki scored indeed less and less efficient. But his team was still able to get their offense going, and had a higher win% and higher ORtg than expected.
Jackson: 25.6/7.7/2.2 on 60 ts% and 7.9 turnover rate, the Mavs had an average ORtg of 112.7. Combine the ORtg and the DRtg again and you expect 108.3. By record the expected amount of wins were 10, the Mavs won 13. Nowitzki's average numbers: 23.2/8.5/2.7 on 58 ts% and 7.6 turnover rate. Thus Nowitzki scored more than his average against Jackson on a better efficiency, and the Mavs usually trashed Jackson's teams on offense.
Hopefully those numbers are showing that Stephen Jackson never was a good defender against Nowitzki. Bowen alone was also not that great, when he constantly had to defend Nowitzki alone, but he did obviously a better job than Stephen Jackson. If someone wants to see a great defensive job by an individual defender, he should watch the playoffs series 2005 between the Rockets and the Mavericks. Tracy McGrady done an awesome job on Nowitzki, better than anybody else for a similar stretch.
1. Based on my film study and research, Dirk creates LESS offense than players like LeBron, Kobe, Wade for others.
2. I never said Dirk couldn't create for his teammates -- so I'm not sure if you were just spring-boarding off my post to say that in general. If not, I'm confused.
3. There's no trap. The point was with Jackson GS didn't send a double and Dirk created
less than normal for his teammates.
*Golden State didn't double Dirk ONCE in the game I re-watched (G4) when Jackson was on him. Dirk scored on him a bunch, but my point was never that Jackson could lock down Dirk.
*Here are all of the created opportunities I see from that game:
-Dirk gets doubled at the end of the first half and ends up moving it along to Dampier (missed layup). That's the first created offense I see.
-Finally, in the 4th they double him (Jackson not on him) and it's swung around to Stackhouse but there's nothing there and the Mavs turn it over.
-With 4:08 left with Harrington on him they double and sets up a Stackhouse 3 (miss).
-Next trip Richardson ends up on him and they instantly double, he set up another Stack 3 (miss).
That's well below the norm for an elite offensive player, and from games I've seen, below what Dirk normally does because other teams are throwing doubles at him like water on a fire. That, and he has the ball more.
4. Dirk definitely had some bad defensive possessions in that game. Highlights of the series show many mistakes as well. He takes a bunch of bad angles on PnR defense. He misses a few rotations. He's often switched onto Jackson, Barnes, Harrington or even Davis and they stretch him and drive. I've definitely seen Dirk play better defense. I don't think oPER is very good here because (1) it's not a great stat and (2) Dirk switched/rotated off/ended up on half the team. When they (foolishly) went small, he obviously didn't guard the paint too well.
--
Make of that what you will. I'm not "blaming" Nowitzki, but he didn't have a great series, especially by his lofty standards. A lot of that was his team and coach. But for me, the one thing I would've liked to see is him say somewhere in G4 or G6, "Give my the effing ball everytime." His passivity was disappointing in that series.
Spurs != Warriors. I don't know what to say beyond that regarding LeBron's finals.
