Retro POY '06-07 (Voting Complete)

[ElGee]

I'm interested in more discussion about Kobe. Not quite 06 (both in terms typical of positive and negative arguments). Not as mature as 08. How do people see this season?

[shawngoat23]

Everything is totally up in the air for me here:

1) Tim Duncan
2) Dirk Nowitzki
3-5) Split evenly among Steve Nash, LeBron James, and Kobe Bryant

[Doctor MJ]

Just curious, I may be a bit biased here, but where exactly do you have McGrady ranked? He was 6th in MVP voting that season, and with a sub-par supporting cast with Yao out, led the Rockets through a 20-10 record, including a stretch where he averaged 29/7/7/47%, led them to 4th place, and a 52 win season. His first round exit hurts him the most, because he was favored to win, but I think he definitely deserves a mention over someone like Kidd, Manu, Parker or even Boozer, where his impact was completely overlooked during the season in terms of winning.

He'd probably have been the next guy I mentioned. Here's the thing about McGrady and why I don't mention him more: His candidacy is primarily based on the idea that he carried the Rockets with a weak supporting cast. However, the Rockets have had year after year of disappointing when healthy, and overachieving when crippled. (It should also be noted that McGrady's +/-, while fine, is not earth shattering here) It's not a "McGrady overrated" thing as it also happened with Yao. For whatever reason, the Rockets weren't really able to benefit from their stars like you'd think.

Now you might say "Okay, but the team still did well and McGrady's a superstar, so he's gotta be top 10". Thing is, McGrady's primarily a volume scorer who was only decently efficient in one year. And when I say decently, I'm talking Kobe-level, and I know Kobe for not being more efficient. I'm not ridiculously impressed with inefficient volume scorers.

Circling back to the positive. Good year. All-Star worthy. Not really someone I really see as a candidate for the Top 5 though.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm interested in more discussion about Kobe. Not quite 06 (both in terms typical of positive and negative arguments). Not as mature as 08. How do people see this season?

I mean he's great, but it's the least impressive of the 3 in my book. '08's a bit of a different animal because he impresses in a different way. '06 is the comparison to make. In '06 not only was he playing at bigger volume, but he concluded the season with an OMG run that got his team into the playoffs and then threatened at an upset. In '07 kinda went quietly into that good night. He's still clearly a Top 5 guy, but it doesn't take something that crazy to beat him here in my book.

[ElGee]

I'm interested in more discussion about Kobe. Not quite 06 (both in terms typical of positive and negative arguments). Not as mature as 08. How do people see this season?

I mean he's great, but it's the least impressive of the 3 in my book. '08's a bit of a different animal because he impresses in a different way. '06 is the comparison to make. In '06 not only was he playing at bigger volume, but he concluded the season with an OMG run that got his team into the playoffs and then threatened at an upset. In '07 kinda went quietly into that good night. He's still clearly a Top 5 guy, but it doesn't take something that crazy to beat him here in my book.

My general reservations about Bryant during this period: didn't involve his teammates well (don't think they responded well to his heavy hand either) and his shot selection left a lot to be desired. The scoring binge in 06 doesn't overly impress me because the efficiency wasn't there. Furthermore, they were 18-19 from 06-07 when he took over 30 shots per game, so there's no evidence that those types of games result in more wins.

I also don't know what to make of G7 in Phoenix in 2006, when in the second half he walked down and stood still on offense something like 27 times, which I don't think I've ever seen a star do.

So I agree with you Doc - these two seasons are most similar in this stretch of his career. I'm struggling with how to balance what I said above with the fact that the Lakers ORtg during that period was still quite good, and their defensive woes are independent of Bryant anyway since he doesn't have much impact defensively IMO. Furthermore he was more efficient in 07 but took way more shots in 06. The team results are impressive (moreso in 06 with a 48 Pythag!) but at least he had Odom, Phil Jackson and only 2 or 3 other players who could barely make an NBA roster.

The Offense

So how responsible is he for the offense in 06 at 56% TS% despite a number of bad, contested deep shots (everyone's favorites)? Did those shots even matter that much?

Walton's always facilitated offense in the triangle well and Odom is obviously a quality offensive player. After that? Eek. Jackson used a number of shooters, but I see that value being tied back to Kobe (Cook, Vujacic, even Smush and Odom -- .369% combined from that group). Let's just say I don't think they're coming close to that without someone creating an open look for them. It's possible at times that was Odom or Parker creating (9.2 apg combined) but I don't entirely trust assists and have the feeling that Bryant is forcing the defense's hand and other players were just making the extra pass.

Now, perhaps some of that offensive efficiency comes from offensive rebounding (Lakers were 8th) and lack of turnovers (9th). Perhaps some is inherent in the triangle, which doesn't rely on dribble penetration and quality passers like Odom and Walton help. Otherwise, I can't see an argument for why Bryant isn't responsible for the rest of that fairly impressive offensive efficiency as a team.

Advanced Stats

06 he and Odom have identical WP. 07 Kobe jumps way up. Maybe this is further evidence for my distaste of this stat.

Both he and Odom drop in Win Shares from 06 to 07 (Kobe with an expectedly wide margin both seasons). I think an argument can be made that his 07 cast was better than the 06 team.

Kobe's 8th in the league in WS/48 in 07 of players over 2000 minutes, Roland Rating in 07 12.4 (no one else above 2 on the team) and 14.8 in 06 (Odom the only other positive at 4.4).

His APM was 14.34 in 06, 8.7 in 07 (still excellent, but behind Duncan, LBJ and KG that season).

His overall playoff numbers were better in 07 than 06, but I thought his 06 series was better.

[Silver Bullet]

Regarding Bryant - I hope people keep in mind that making the playoffs in the 00's West is at least as valuable as making the Conference Finals in the East.

[penbeast0]

I confess, the level of discussion and analysis in this thread is so good, I find I have nothing to contribute that people haven't said better than I could already. Maybe when we get back a few years to where us geezers can talk about what the stats don't show . . .

Good work everyone.

[Doctor MJ]

I confess, the level of discussion and analysis in this thread is so good, I find I have nothing to contribute that people haven't said better than I could already. Maybe when we get back a few years to where us geezers can talk about what the stats don't show . . .

Good work everyone.

I'll just make clear, it's those later years I'm most interested in because I know them least. So while I'm always down to hear what you think of current players, I'm eagerly awaiting your thoughts as we go forward.

[Doctor MJ]

I also don't know what to make of G7 in Phoenix in 2006, when in the second half he walked down and stood still on offense something like 27 times, which I don't think I've ever seen a star do.

The '06 series with Phoenix has a ton of angles to it from a "study of Kobe & Phil" perspective. I definitely want to see people's thoughts on it in the next thread.

[ElGee]

I also don't know what to make of G7 in Phoenix in 2006, when in the second half he walked down and stood still on offense something like 27 times, which I don't think I've ever seen a star do.

The '06 series with Phoenix has a ton of angles to it from a "study of Kobe & Phil" perspective. I definitely want to see people's thoughts on it in the next thread.

I'm bringing it up now because I think if he's a similar player in a similar situation it's relevant. We just happen to be moving chronologically backward in the project, but 06 was a polarizing season for Bryant. If we agree it's a similar beast in 07, then doesn't that matter now, for the purpose of our project? Or was No. 8 that different from No. 24?

[bastillon]

I also don't know what to make of G7 in Phoenix in 2006, when in the second half he walked down and stood still on offense something like 27 times, which I don't think I've ever seen a star do.

The '06 series with Phoenix has a ton of angles to it from a "study of Kobe & Phil" perspective. I definitely want to see people's thoughts on it in the next thread.

can you create a 06 thread already ?
the discussion won't go much further here and we could move on, because we'll need some time for that 06.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm bringing it up now because I think if he's a similar player in a similar situation it's relevant. We just happen to be moving chronologically backward in the project, but 06 was a polarizing season for Bryant. If we agree it's a similar beast in 07, then doesn't that matter now, for the purpose of our project? Or was No. 8 that different from No. 24?

True. I would say that the last half of the game 7 isn't necessarily all that relevant here imho, but the series on the whole very well may be.

My take on "shooting too much Kobe?": During the '05-06 season you generally found me in the anti-Kobe, meaning I was arguing for other MVP candidates. As I've looked back though, I've felt like I didn't give enough credit for his super-big stretches that season, particularly the year ending one that allowed them to secure a playoff spot. When he was scoring his biggest, the team did do well, so it's hard to say he wasn't very valuable then.

The downside that I'd always mention before, and is still relevant now, is that those hot streaks didn't last, and his numbers over 82 games aren't ridiculously mind blowing when you factor in the not-ridiculously-impressive efficiency. I mean, it's still impressive & all, they don't shut the door on a comparison with LeBron - which means there's a considerable amount of time during which Kobe wasn't hitting his shots so well.

I'll also mention that Kobe did have pretty strong +/- during this era. That doesn't mean he wasn't overshooting sometimes, but this wasn't a case like Iverson (who had significantly lower efficiency) where there really was evidence to suggest the team wouldn't get significantly worse if they just replaced Iverson with an average starting point guard.

[Doctor MJ]

can you create a 06 thread already ?
the discussion won't go much further here and we could move on, because we'll need some time for that 06.

Eh, sure. Was scheduled to do it in the morning, but no reason I can't do it now. It'll be up in a few.

[Dr Positivity]

Ok I'll finally get to this

I'm going with Lebron #1. He didn't have Nash and Dirk's regular season, he didn't have the playoff success of Tim Duncan, but I'm taking him because I think even then he was the best player in the league. If I was holding a single season draft and had the first overall pick I'd take Lebron and Duncan in the top 2 for sure with the edge to Lebron, who I see as the easiest to build a winner with as all you need is a couple shooting guards and some rebounding bigs. Offensively Lebron single handidly gives you a ton of points at the rim and spot-ups from 3... the mistake the Cavs management made before the last 2 years was not realizing the dominance of a 2 spot up 3 guards/Lebron offense, instead opting to give major minutes Eric Snow, Larry Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic who liked the inefficient midrange 2. I think this inability to recognize the optimal efficiency of a spot up backcourt with Lebron may have cost the Cavs 2-3 contending years. Furthermore Lebron DID accomplish a lot in the regular season and playoffs, taking that POS team to 50 wins and the Finals, arguably as great a feat degree of difficulty wise as Duncan winning the title with his greatest team.

Tim Duncan is the easy #2 here. Using the reasoning from before Duncan is the guy I'd pick in my single season draft 2nd. Furthermore this was arguably the best Spurs team ever. Their 8.35 SRS was the best of the Duncan era (only time they broke 8) and they cruised to the title.

I'm taking Nash #3. I remember thinking that year he deserved the MVP and was getting jobbed by a "there's NO WAY! Steve **** Nash is winning 3 straight MVPs" sentiment. The Suns and Mavs and their long streaks were the main story of the regular season and Nash kept them on track despite the deteroriating Marion-Amare situation. Again this was the highest Suns SRS ever and in the playoffs looked to be giving the statistically dominant Spurs a good fight until the Amare suspension. Nash's finest year to me. I think his combination of super high efficiency and dominant passing game gave him more offensive impact and layers on the game than Dirk

Dirk #4. Obviously the playoffs was a disaster, but his regular season was just too insane to put him any lower than this. 67 wins, a 55-5 streak, separate 17 and 13 game win streaks, with... Jason Terry, Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse, and Erick Dampier as his most noteable teammates... wow. Again he just killed himself in the playoffs but it's enough to put him this high, this wasn't a particularly amazing year

Kobe #5. This was his last year in wolf mode so to speak. Obviously very impressive numbers but I can't help the feeling Odom and co. were a little scared of him at this point. To me there's a big difference between 06-07 and 08-09 Kobe that comes down to more than just teammates... I think he finally found himself late in his career. At this point I don't think you can put him above the other 4

[bastillon]

I'm going with Lebron #1. He didn't have Nash and Dirk's regular season, he didn't have the playoff success of Tim Duncan, but I'm taking him because I think even then he was the best player in the league. If I was holding a single season draft and had the first overall pick I'd take Lebron and Duncan in the top 2 for sure with the edge to Lebron, who I see as the easiest to build a winner with as all you need is a couple shooting guards and some rebounding bigs. Offensively Lebron single handidly gives you a ton of points at the rim and spot-ups from 3... the mistake the Cavs management made before the last 2 years was not realizing the dominance of a 2 spot up 3 guards/Lebron offense, instead opting to give major minutes Eric Snow, Larry Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic who liked the inefficient midrange 2. I think this inability to recognize the optimal efficiency of a spot up backcourt with Lebron may have cost the Cavs 2-3 contending years. Furthermore Lebron DID accomplish a lot in the regular season and playoffs, taking that POS team to 50 wins and the Finals, arguably as great a feat degree of difficulty wise as Duncan winning the title with his greatest team.

how does that seperate him from Nash or Duncan ? they too are dominant offensively and don't need much besides shooters to make their team elite. on the other hand James has a serious offensive issue in lack of jumpshot at that point. he's still a stoppable offensive force as evidenced by his awful finals. he has no scoring game outside of the paint to speak of. you're just judging that guy by perspective on his '10 campaign.

Duncan owned him in +/-, dominated head2head, anchored far better team (the best in the league by SRS).

Nash vastly outperformed him when they played against the same opponent.

where do you truly see his advantages ?

[Dr Positivity]

The Suns use Amare to get their inside points and Nash to get the 3pt ones. Lebron gives you both by himself. That's the difference to me. Duncan doesn't create as many 3s and he's not nearly as efficient within 5 feet as Lebron, the reason it's close is defense alone IMO

[Doctor MJ]

The Suns use Amare to get their inside points and Nash to get the 3pt ones. Lebron gives you both by himself. That's the difference to me. Duncan doesn't create as many 3s and he's not nearly as efficient within 5 feet as Lebron, the reason it's close is defense alone IMO

It has to be noted that FG% and 3P% went up on Phoenix from '04-05 to '05-06. Now overall, the offense did get worse, but the way you talk about Amare & Nash seems to imply that without either the offense would be crippled. We don't fully know how it would be without Nash, but without Amare it was still superb - for example, better than the Cavs offense this year, and WAY better than the LeBron's in any year until he made the hyperjump forward in '08-09.

[tkb]

A lot of great discussion here. Props to you guys.

I'm going:

1. Tim Duncan (pretty easy choice imo)
2. LeBron James (impressive playoffs run, though in a very weak conference, couldve been nr 1 if not for the fact that Duncan and the Spurs swept him)
3. Kobe Bryant (i kinda go back and forth on Nash and Kobe. Both had good individual regular seasons on two very different teams, where neither team went above expectations in the playoffs. I put Kobe over Nash for the simple fact that I thought he was a better player that year, though it's pretty close imo)
4. Steve Nash (see above)
5. Dirk Nowitzki (ranked nr 1 after the regular season imo, but losing to the warriors drops him down here)

[ElGee]

The Suns use Amare to get their inside points and Nash to get the 3pt ones. Lebron gives you both by himself. That's the difference to me. Duncan doesn't create as many 3s and he's not nearly as efficient within 5 feet as Lebron, the reason it's close is defense alone IMO

It has to be noted that FG% and 3P% went up on Phoenix from '04-05 to '05-06. Now overall, the offense did get worse, but the way you talk about Amare & Nash seems to imply that without either the offense would be crippled. We don't fully know how it would be without Nash, but without Amare it was still superb - for example, better than the Cavs offense this year, and WAY better than the LeBron's in any year until he made the hyperjump forward in '08-09.

There's a lot of overlap between 06 and 07 as I look at both threads right now, and I'm wondering how high some people are thinking Nash ranks? Personally I see these two seasons as his absolute peak. Slightly better versions of 05 individually, when he was entrenched in the Phoenix system and just in complete control orchestrating that offensive juggernaut.

As I've mentioned before, I've also become more convinced that his shortcomings defensively are nearly inconsequential given how much value he has offensively. (Keeping in my that he doesn't really have a positive defensive effect either, which gives bigs an inherent advantage over him on that end.)

I've always thought of him sort of 3-6 in that period, but I'm just wondering what the argument might be for him at No. 1 or No. 2 in 07 since Wade exits the picture?

[Doctor MJ]

There's a lot of overlap between 06 and 07 as I look at both threads right now, and I'm wondering how high some people are thinking Nash ranks? Personally I see these two seasons as his absolute peak. Slightly better versions of 05 individually, when he was entrenched in the Phoenix system and just in complete control orchestrating that offensive juggernaut.

As I've mentioned before, I've also become more convinced that his shortcomings defensively are nearly inconsequential given how much value he has offensively. (Keeping in my that he doesn't really have a positive defensive effect either, which gives bigs an inherent advantage over him on that end.)

I've always thought of him sort of 3-6 in that period, but I'm just wondering what the argument might be for him at No. 1 or No. 2 in 07 since Wade exits the picture?

Well obviously I think he's top 2 in '07, so my bias is clear.

Re: '05 vs '06 & '07. I mentioned before I thought '07 was Nash at his most comfortable with his abilities before his gains in experience ceased to keep up with age related deterioration. That said, I think what he did in the '05 playoffs was pretty damn amazing - not to mention the off court impact he had that year in getting this team to believe in themselves.