Post#198 » by drza » Mon May 3, 2010 4:03 pm
Alright, I haven't got to spend as much time in this thread as I did the others, but I have been thinking about it and I've come to some decisions. As I said, my 6 finalists were Duncan, LeBron, Dirk, Garnett, Kobe and Nash. This is the hardest year we've done so far, to me, because there was so very little to separate the candidates. It wasn't like '09 with a clear-cut #1 or '08 with a definite foursome above the rest. Even in the first two I've had difficulty choosing how to gauge "great player/poor situation" vs "best player on good team", but I'm starting to get a feel for my process. Essentially, I look at two basic questions:
1) Who was the best player?
2) Who did the best job of maximizing their team?
I look at the advanced stats, I pull from my recollections, I read everyone's arguments. But in cases like this, where there's just no clear separation, I have to start pulling out my hypotheticals (like I've done in each of the first two years, when in doubt) and figuring out what I really believe. For this year, the easiest way for me to do it was to pick one player and compare him to all of the others individually to make my first cuts. Since he's the oddball in this thread, as well as the one I know the best, I chose to make my comparisons to KG.
My first hypothetical questions are: if you swapped players, would either team benefit or fall off. I feel like if I swapped Nash and Diaw for Garnett and Randy Foye the Suns would have still been in the 60-win range with a potent offense, but a much better defense. This is the time period when Garnett had averaged 6 assists to lead his team in 2 of the 4 previous years (both times for top-6 offenses), and I think he would have fit great offensively on a D'Antoni-led offense with frontcourt finishers like Amare/Marion and backcourt combo guards like Barbosa and Foye. I think that team is built more for the playoffs and maybe takes the title. The Wolves, I don't know if they even win 25 games. Nash's gift is making teammates better, but running the Casey/Wittman rudimentary offenses with headcases like Mark Blount and Ricky Davis? Not seeing it.
Similarly, if we swapped out Kobe/Kwame for Garnett/McCants I see the Lakers at the least maintaining their record/position and likely improve. Garnett would fit well as one of the points on the Triangle on offense, I think he and Odom would make a matchup nightmare for opposing frontcourts, and I think Odom, Smush and Bynum all fit in better next to Garnett than they do to Bryant. On the Wolves, playing in that environment with that coach next to Ricky Davis and the other Wolves...I honestly have no idea how that could possibly work. I could believe that Kobe might have gone for 100 in a game that year, but I don't think the team wins 30 games.
Those were the only two cases where I could play it out in my mind and see a clear difference, though, in how I think the season would have played out. I think any of Duncan, KG or Dirk as the focal point of the Spurs or Mavs would have resulted in a top-3 seed for those teams, and I think any of those guys as the focal point of Minnesota leaves the team in the 30s-win range. I'm not convinced that LeBron maximized the regular season wins available for those Cavs, but not by enough to really preclude him from this conversation. In the postseason, however, I think that any of the 3 others on the Mavs and they get past the Warriors in the first round.
That leaves Duncan, Garnett and LeBron as my 3 finalists. And here, it just gets too murky for me to feel with any confidence that swapping any of them out would have significantly changed the outcome. Given that, I can't in good conscience swap anyone's order based on this method. Thus, at the end of my exercise, I'm left with this order:
1) Duncan
2) LeBron
3) Garnett
4) Dirk
5) Kobe. I didn't put it on here, but I went through a similar two question evaluation with Kobe and Nash. I could convince myself that the Lakers may have performed better with Nash at the reigns if D'Antoni came with him to coach the team, but in the structured Triangle I don't necessarily see Nash having the freedom that would allow him to have a bigger effect than Kobe. Plus, I think Kobe was just the better player between them.