Retro POY '06-07 (Voting Complete)

[Doctor MJ]

'06-07 Results

Code: Select all

Player             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts   POY Shares
1. Tim Duncan       18   2   1   1   0 202   0.918
2. Kobe Bryant       2   4   3  11   2  98   0.445
3. Dirk Nowitzki     0   6   6   4   6  90   0.409
4. Steve Nash        1   7   3   3   4  87   0.395
5. LeBron James      1   3   8   2   8  85   0.386
4. Kevin Garnett     0   0   1   1   2  10   0.045


[Silver Bullet]

drza, can you explain how KG is ahead of Kobe when he won a paltry 32 games, with a supporting cast, that is at best, slightly worse than his. Was significantly worse statistically and was 9th in MVP voting behind stalwarts such as Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer.

I have a short/moderate post on page 3 of this thread and two posts on pages 17 and 18 of the 2007-08 thread that introduces and begins to develop my views on this topic (you should remember the posts from the 2008 thread especially, as me and you were responding directly to each other and I sorely questioned your analysis when you stated and repeatedly emphasized that Mark Blount was a "defensive specialist" on the 2007 Wolves).

But the best post to read for my analysis/opinion on this subject is on page 8 of this thread. I was exceedingly detailed in my analysis of Garnett's supporting cast, Kobe's supporting cast, and what I saw as the differences in level between the two. If you're really interested in my explanation and not merely being argumentative, that would be the place for you to read.

As for the second part of your question, Garnett wasn't "significantly worse" statistically than Kobe. If anything, there's not enough separation between them across the body of stats we have available. That's why my conclusion post focuses more on how I viewed things in context than a numbers war. The stats aren't enough to determine a case either way, here. And the MVP votes are historically extremely reliant on team record, so I'm not really sure I see the relevance in these types of threads whose main goals are to go beyond the surface and really get at the heart of our player evaluations.

I remember that post - you analyzed how the Wolves supporting cast played that year - and I brought this up before, I'm not sure if it was with you or not - but in your opinion, does that not reflect poorly on KG. The fact that Mike James came in as a near all-star and proceeded to have the worst year of his career. And Ricky Davis and Mark Blount produced exactly what should've been expected of them - I mean, it's not like you were expecting them to be all-stars.

I mean, surely you don't think that KG kept trying to push them and they didn't respond. At some point, the failure of team mates to respond has to reflect on the alpha-dog on the team. We know, at the very least, that Mike James was capable of being much more - so it's not like they maximized their capabilities.

The Lakers on the other hand, without looking I can pretty confidently say, that, that team maximized it's potential. None of the players (with the exception of Odom's last season in Miami) had, had better seasons prior to that -
I mean, Blount and James were at least NBA players -

Brian Cook, Smush Parker, Laron Profit, Chris Mihm all ended up retiring or in D-league or overseas.

6 of the 8 top rotation players on that team are not even in the NBA now. The two exceptions being Odom and Bryant.


So, don't you think, being probably the biggest KG supporter on the site, it reflects poorly on you, when you're putting the guy that won 32 games and put up 22-11-4 over a guy that won 45 games and put up 35-6-6 ? I mean, you seriously don't think tht'd come across as biased to others ?

[drza]

drza, can you explain how KG is ahead of Kobe when he won a paltry 32 games, with a supporting cast, that is at best, slightly worse than his. Was significantly worse statistically and was 9th in MVP voting behind stalwarts such as Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer.

I have a short/moderate post on page 3 of this thread and two posts on pages 17 and 18 of the 2007-08 thread that introduces and begins to develop my views on this topic (you should remember the posts from the 2008 thread especially, as me and you were responding directly to each other and I sorely questioned your analysis when you stated and repeatedly emphasized that Mark Blount was a "defensive specialist" on the 2007 Wolves).

But the best post to read for my analysis/opinion on this subject is on page 8 of this thread. I was exceedingly detailed in my analysis of Garnett's supporting cast, Kobe's supporting cast, and what I saw as the differences in level between the two. If you're really interested in my explanation and not merely being argumentative, that would be the place for you to read.

As for the second part of your question, Garnett wasn't "significantly worse" statistically than Kobe. If anything, there's not enough separation between them across the body of stats we have available. That's why my conclusion post focuses more on how I viewed things in context than a numbers war. The stats aren't enough to determine a case either way, here. And the MVP votes are historically extremely reliant on team record, so I'm not really sure I see the relevance in these types of threads whose main goals are to go beyond the surface and really get at the heart of our player evaluations.

I remember that post - you analyzed how the Wolves supporting cast played that year - and I brought this up before, I'm not sure if it was with you or not - but in your opinion, does that not reflect poorly on KG. The fact that Mike James came in as a near all-star and proceeded to have the worst year of his career. And Ricky Davis and Mark Blount produced exactly what should've been expected of them - I mean, it's not like you were expecting them to be all-stars.

I mean, surely you don't think that KG kept trying to push them and they didn't respond. At some point, the failure of team mates to respond has to reflect on the alpha-dog on the team. We know, at the very least, that Mike James was capable of being much more - so it's not like they maximized their capabilities.

The Lakers on the other hand, without looking I can pretty confidently say, that, that team maximized it's potential. None of the players (with the exception of Odom's last season in Miami) had, had better seasons prior to that -
I mean, Blount and James were at least NBA players -

Brian Cook, Smush Parker, Laron Profit, Chris Mihm all ended up retiring or in D-league or overseas.

6 of the 8 top rotation players on that team are not even in the NBA now. The two exceptions being Odom and Bryant.


So, don't you think, being probably the biggest KG supporter on the site, it reflects poorly on you, when you're putting the guy that won 32 games and put up 22-11-4 over a guy that won 45 games and put up 35-6-6 ? I mean, you seriously don't think tht'd come across as biased to others ?

I can't speak for anyone else, so I don't know how I'm perceived. I've never hidden that I'm a Garnett supporter, and despite any attempts to be non-biased that can't help but factor into my analysis. I'm not sure it's a bad thing overall, though, because in addition to the potential for bias it also means I'm the poster in here that generally best understands Garnett's circumstances. In these threads so far, I've noticed that generally I'm the one expected to give further information on KG, Mystic is in the same role for Dirk, and really you've taken the lead on that front for Kobe.

The main question is: is the information that I'm giving good or not? At the end of the day I only have one vote, just like everyone else, but my hope is that I'm putting info out there that is relevant, contains pertinent and perhaps previously not-considered facts, and that I can support my case in ways that logically makes sense. My perception early in this project based upon the feedback that I generally receive from other posters is that for the most part I'm accomplishing that. When considering what others may or may-not believe to be biased, you have to ask yourself how the feedback you've received reflects upon how "others" might feel about your posts in these threads.

As to the actual on-topic question, again, I've addressed each one of the points you raised in the posts that I referred you to as well as my posts on this very page. The extreme cliff-notes conclusions without any of the other analysis is that I don't believe there is a single player that played in the NBA in 2007 that could have accomplished more with that supporting cast under those coaching and organizational conditions than Garnett. Both in style of play and in temperament, Garnett did more with that team than I think realistically possible with any of the alternatives.

With those Lakers, I don't know that Kobe maximized. That's not all his fault...Odom was never an ideal 2nd fiddle to him because Odom is maximized when he has the ball in his hands and can create. That was right in Bynum's development window, and Kobe has never been considered the best mentor/teammate for young developing bigs like him. Smush also was not a shooter, he was a volume chucker/combo guard that liked to operate off the dribble. Essentially, he was a taller Troy Hudson. Again, not ideal next to Kobe.

I think that all three of those players fit better next to Garnett, especially on a Phil-led team that runs the Triangle. Odom and Garnett would be almost interchangeable in their roles, and I think they could have been a super-charged version of the Pau/Odom frontline that has helped Kobe restore the Lakers to championship contention. Without a great perimeter player Garnett obviously wouldn't have been enough to lead the '07 Lakers to a title, but I could definitely see a stronger team than 42 - 40 and a defeat of the Suns.

[ElGee]

drza - I asked earlier in the thread but you must have missed it...you think KG was 100% healthy that year? My recollection was he was hobbled and still playing. He had a decent statistical drop in some advanced stats.

[Optimism Prime]

'06-07 Results

Code: Select all

Player             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts   POY Shares
1. Tim Duncan       18   2   1   1   0 202   0.918
2. Kobe Bryant       2   4   3  11   2  98   0.445
3. Dirk Nowitzki     0   6   6   4   6  90   0.409
4. Steve Nash        1   7   3   3   4  87   0.395
5. LeBron James      1   3   8   2   8  85   0.386
4. Kevin Garnett     0   0   1   1   2  10   0.045


MVP voting:
Dirk Nowitzki - 0.882
Steve Nash - 0.785
Kobe Bryant - 0.404
Tim Duncan - 0.222
LeBron James - 0.142
Tracy McGrady - 0.085
Chris Bosh - 0.033
Gilbert Arenas - 0.024
Carlos Boozer - 0.005
Kevin Garnett - 0.005
Chauncey Billups - 0.003
Shaquille O'Neal - 0.002
Amare Stoudemire - 0.002
Dwyane Wade - 0.002
Carmelo Anthony - 0.001
Baron Davis - 0.001
Tony Parker - 0.001

[drza]

drza - I asked earlier in the thread but you must have missed it...you think KG was 100% healthy that year? My recollection was he was hobbled and still playing. He had a decent statistical drop in some advanced stats.

I tried to address this somewhat with my post earlier on this page (I think it's the second one from the top), where I talk a lot about how I'm confident that he would have missed no time and shown no real effect from the injury were it not for the team's need to lose those last games in order not to have to give the Clippers their draft pick.

As to whether the knee was hurt at all, I think it was. During one of the years in that time period I remember him coming up a bit lame in a game against the Nuggets and being visibly slowed for a week or two afterwards even though he didn't sit out. I can't remember exactly which year that happened, but it wasn't news that his knees were sore in that time period (even the bone spur that was eventually removed last season could have conceivably been forming by then).

As far as his statistical impact...I'm not sure that '07 was really much different than '06 outside of one area, field goal percentage, and I don't really blame the knee for that. KG always got double-teamed during his prime in Minnesota, but in '07 teams just got disrespectful with it. He was regularly pseudo-triple teamed in the fourth quarter of games in the post (his man behind, strong-side defender sagged off of their man to front him, top-of-key defender dropped down to pinch) such that if he could even receive an entry he either had to kick it out to teammates who'd miss or force the shot. I think the lower field goal percentage is more due to this than his knees, though perhaps the knee played a small part as well.

On the other hand, despite the lower shooting percentage, KG's +/- stats were much better in '07 than '06 and I would argue that his impact on games was more visible and obvious in a non-traditional stats way in '07 than it had been in '06 (in a lot of ways, '07 was a fitting precursor to his big '08 season).

[ElGee]

^^^Thanks. I'm hearing "kind of," which jives with my recollection. I thought I saw him hobbling in a game as well but couldn't remember which season (06 or 07). Again, the issues you bring up with coaching are tricky to balance. I think we'll see this come up again going forward, err, backward.

[Doctor MJ]

I can't speak for everyone, but for me I have a lot more trouble spending time on here on the weekends than during some work weeks. At work I'm often super busy (in which case I can't post), but when I'm not I can spend some time on things. At home, there's almost never a time I can get on unless it's in the middle of the night. Since I like to discuss more than just vote, I decided to wait until this morning to put my final thoughts for this year up.

Totally fine. Yeah, weekend concerns are one of the reasons why I'm doing this over 3 days. If you see a general issue with the cycling that you'd like to discuss, please bring it up.