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Retro POY '05-06 (Voting Complete)

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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#181 » by mysticbb » Tue May 4, 2010 4:28 pm

Tim_Hardawayy wrote:No, I believe the argument is that he was actually underrated in the regular season to begin with because of the perception that it was still Shaq's team, it had nothing to do with his postseason performance.


I agree with that. Wade's regular season gets underrated, but he had a really good year even before the series against the Pistons and the Mavericks.

Tim_Hardawayy wrote: Statistically, he was about on par with Kobe and Duncan, and superior to KG in his Celtics season. He had 52 wins, but if you ask most, I think they'd agree his supporting cast was weaker than the other 3 players (Shaq and all), between fit and depth.


The Heat when starting with Wade and Shaquille O'Neal had a +5.8 scoring margin, which usually equates to 59 wins, their actual Win% in those 53 games was 0.698, whic is 57 wins. The Heat were stronger than a typical 52 wins team.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#182 » by Tim_Hardawayy » Tue May 4, 2010 4:33 pm

mysticbb wrote:
The Heat when starting with Wade and Shaquille O'Neal had a +5.8 scoring margin, which usually equates to 59 wins, their actual Win% in those 53 games was 0.698, whic is 57 wins. The Heat were stronger than a typical 52 wins team.

I think part of the underachieving in the regular season can be attributed to adjusting to new players (most of the core from 04-05 was changed save for Shaq, Wade and Mourning), dealing with a coaching change, and Shaq himself missing 23 games that season.

Still, even when completely healthy and at their best, I think most would take the Spurs minus Duncan, the Celtics minus KG, and the Lakers minus Kobe from their respective seasons, depending on how much you truly value Shaq.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#183 » by drza » Tue May 4, 2010 4:38 pm

mysticbb wrote:
drza wrote:Like any hypothetical, what you think would have happened is going to be colored by the thought processes and predispositions of each person. But even being completely conservative and removing my own thoughts on the matter, it's certainly not ridiculous to think that KG could have taken that team further than Dirk.


Actually I looked at it from both sides, Garnett would improve the defense and rebounding, but in the playoffs the difference between the 2006 Nowitzki in DRB% isn't huge anymore. Nowitzki had a 28 DRB%, Garnett next to a defensive rebounding center isn't getting much more. Keep in mind that Garnett never had a rebounding center like Dampier next to him. BUT, all of the players you mentioned are better offensively. Dampier and Diop are known for their really bad hands.
Anyway, Nowitzki carried that team offensively with a much higher efficiency than a usual Garnett was able to do it. It is also a fact that Nowitzki is better in clutch situation, especially in converting his free throw attempt which is huge in the playoffs. Garnett would have not led that Dallas team past the Spurs, I have no doubt about that. The team wasn't good enough offensively to cover up Garnett's weaknesses on offense. You don't go deep in the playoffs, if your main scorer is not really efficient like Garnett. Take a look at the 2004 Timberwolves, 7 players on that team with significant minutes had a higher scoring efficieny than Garnett, on the 2006 Mavericks only Diop had a higher scoring effiency (while making 3ppg) than Nowitzki. We are not talking about a small difference here, even absolute prime Garnett scored 24 ppg on 51.3 ts%, compare that to 27 ppg on 59.6 ts%. And Garnett actually used more scoring possessions than Nowitzki per game in 2004. If Garnett would have scored as efficient as Nowitzki, he would have score 4 ppg more. As I said, Garnett for Nowitzki swap in 2006, a year in which Garnett was weaker than 2004, would have cost the Mavericks more on offense than they would have gained on defense. It would be a different story, if we would talk about pre 2006, but not since 2006.


I'm not going to put a huge amount into this debate here, because it's a side-thought in this thread and there's no clear-cut right answer that makes it worth the diversion here. I've already agreed that Dirk was the better, more efficient scorer and pointed out that I think the areas where Garnett is better would have transformed the way that the team played. With a dominant team defense and a more unified team offensive approach, I don't believe the Mavs would have needed Garnett to replicate Dirk's scoring efficiency to remain as successful. They would have had other strengths to balance out those weaknesses.

The talent and styles on those '06 Mavs would have fit very well on the continuum between the '04 Wolves and the '08 Celtics, and I personally have no doubt that he'd have led the team to a level of success that was also on that continuum.

I would have LOVED, I mean in a I'd have paid EXTREMELY good money way, to see Garnett lead a team as talented as the Mavs up against Duncan's Spurs in the postseason during their primes. I've always felt like that was one of the biggest cheats in NBA history, that we never got to see KG and Duncan face off with anywhere near equal casts. I think it'd have been historical, and a great series that KG's Mavs definitely could have won. It sucks (to me, anyway) that we never got to find out.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#184 » by mysticbb » Tue May 4, 2010 4:45 pm

Tim_Hardawayy wrote:Still, even when completely healthy and at their best, I think most would take the Spurs minus Duncan, the Celtics minus KG, and the Lakers minus Kobe from their respective seasons, depending on how much you truly value Shaq.


Over Heat - Wade or Heat - O'Neal? I don't quite understand the point.

My point was: When relatively healthy and Wade+Shaq starting the Heat were as strong as a typical 59 wins teams.

And well, when you watch the first two games of the Finals series, you would most likely would have picked over the Heat and the Mavericks. Those two games featured really bad basketball, there were stretches during those games in which it was inability vs. complete incompetence. Both teams without their best players weren't really good teams at all. Wade and Nowitzki pushed them over the top, Wade pushed way more in the finals than Nowitzki, who probably also had not much left after battling the Spurs and the Suns before.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#185 » by Tim_Hardawayy » Tue May 4, 2010 4:53 pm

mysticbb wrote:Over Heat - Wade or Heat - O'Neal? I don't quite understand the point.

My point was: When relatively healthy and Wade+Shaq starting the Heat were as strong as a typical 59 wins teams.

And well, when you watch the first two games of the Finals series, you would most likely would have picked over the Heat and the Mavericks. Those two games featured really bad basketball, there were stretches during those games in which it was inability vs. complete incompetence. Both teams without their best players weren't really good teams at all. Wade and Nowitzki pushed them over the top, Wade pushed way more in the finals than Nowitzki, who probably also had not much left after battling the Spurs and the Suns before.


Heat minus Wade, sorry, should have clarified. My point was Wade's supporting players simply weren't as good as KG's, Duncan's or Kobe's the years those 3 players won the title.

Although I concede if you really value what Shaq was still able to do that season, you might put Heat minus Wade over one of those other teams minus their best player.

With San Antonio, its probably Manu but Tony Parker was the Finals MVP, and the rest of the team had amazing chemistry, with Bruce Bowen near his peak. The Celtics proved they are a 50+ win squad without KG the year after the title. And the Lakers had probably the most overall talent of any of these teams, between Gasol, Odom and Bynum.

Anyways this is getting way off track here.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#186 » by Silver Bullet » Tue May 4, 2010 4:56 pm

It is pertinent to mention here that the Heat were 4-1 with O`Neal and without Wade
but they were 10-13 with Wade and without O'Neal.

So it appears as if though the Heat's supporting cast wasn't as bad as is being advertised.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#187 » by lorak » Tue May 4, 2010 5:00 pm

1. Wade
2. Dirk
3. LeBron
4. Kobe
5. KG
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#188 » by Tim_Hardawayy » Tue May 4, 2010 5:06 pm

Silver Bullet wrote:It is pertinent to mention here that the Heat were 4-1 with O`Neal and without Wade
but they were 10-13 with Wade and without O'Neal.

So it appears as if though the Heat's supporting cast wasn't as bad as is being advertised.

5 games is an extremely small sample size.

Mopper also debunked this point in a lengthy post earlier in the thread that you never replied to.

And you still haven't replied to the points I brought up earlier. This is a pointless discussion.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#189 » by mysticbb » Tue May 4, 2010 5:11 pm

drza wrote:I would have LOVED, I mean in a I'd have paid EXTREMELY good money way, to see Garnett lead a team as talented as the Mavs up against Duncan's Spurs in the postseason during their primes.


You are overrating the talent level of the 2006 Mavericks support, if you think they could be a good fit for Garnett. And Garnett never looked really good against Duncan, neither offensively nor defensively. I don't know where the improvement should come from. He most certainly would have never be able to match Nowitzki's 27 ppg on 64.5 ts%. Additional to that Nowitzki gave the Mavericks already 13.3 rebounds per game and in critical possessions at the end of the game Nowitzki played good, physical defense against Duncan (Nowitzki blocked Duncan's layup attempt at the end of regulation in game 7 to secure the tie, for example). Do you really think that Garnett would have been able to overcome the Spurs' HCA? I really don't think so, especially not with a team which was completely structured around an elite offensive player, not around defensive player without the floor spacing ability.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#190 » by Sedale Threatt » Tue May 4, 2010 5:13 pm

Gongxi wrote:I think you're presenting a false dilemma to imply that we either rank players based upon how good their teammates were or we just crunch numbers. I wouldn't even say we need to find a middle ground, because I'm fairly confident those aren't even poles on the same spectrum. It's like saying either we obey the speed limit without fail or we only eat peanut butter and jelly sandwiches for every meal: they're not even related.


I don't think it's a false dilemma at all. How do you solve the problem here, where we have seven qualified candidates for five slots?

I don't think Garnett significantly outplayed any of the players on the list; I think they're all got very strong cases.

So how do I leave out guys who performed at a very high level individually while also enjoying varying levels of team success in favor of a one who didn't?

It's not KG's fault, but there's a slim margin for error in this particular seasons, and you have to use some sort of criterion to whittle down the candidates.

In other years, he might finish as high as third, perhaps even second. Kareem had roughly comparable seasons in the 70s, and I'll be picking him first because of a dearth of candidates. Here, though, it's a totally different story.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#191 » by Silver Bullet » Tue May 4, 2010 5:14 pm

Tim_Hardawayy wrote:
Silver Bullet wrote:It is pertinent to mention here that the Heat were 4-1 with O`Neal and without Wade
but they were 10-13 with Wade and without O'Neal.

So it appears as if though the Heat's supporting cast wasn't as bad as is being advertised.

5 games is an extremely small sample size.

Mopper also debunked this point in a lengthy post earlier in the thread that you never replied to.

And you still haven't replied to the points I brought up earlier. This is a pointless discussion.


I thought I'd covered everything in the page 9 post.

Anyway, it is pointless, you guys have your mind made up -
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#192 » by tkb » Tue May 4, 2010 5:44 pm

I'll go with:

1. Dwyane Wade
2. Dirk Nowitzki
3. Kobe Bryant
4. LeBron James
5. Steve Nash
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#193 » by Gongxi » Tue May 4, 2010 6:01 pm

Sedale Threatt wrote:
Gongxi wrote:I think you're presenting a false dilemma to imply that we either rank players based upon how good their teammates were or we just crunch numbers. I wouldn't even say we need to find a middle ground, because I'm fairly confident those aren't even poles on the same spectrum. It's like saying either we obey the speed limit without fail or we only eat peanut butter and jelly sandwiches for every meal: they're not even related.


I don't think it's a false dilemma at all. How do you solve the problem here, where we have seven qualified candidates for five slots?

I don't think Garnett significantly outplayed any of the players on the list; I think they're all got very strong cases.

So how do I leave out guys who performed at a very high level individually while also enjoying varying levels of team success in favor of a one who didn't?

It's not KG's fault, but there's a slim margin for error in this particular seasons, and you have to use some sort of criterion to whittle down the candidates.

In other years, he might finish as high as third, perhaps even second. Kareem had roughly comparable seasons in the 70s, and I'll be picking him first because of a dearth of candidates. Here, though, it's a totally different story.


I never said you had to shoehorn 7 guys into 5 spots, I'm just saying that the crunching numbers <--------------> looking at team success dynamic isn't relevant. You can ignore team success and still not just be crunching numbers.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#194 » by drza » Tue May 4, 2010 6:06 pm

mysticbb wrote:
drza wrote:I would have LOVED, I mean in a I'd have paid EXTREMELY good money way, to see Garnett lead a team as talented as the Mavs up against Duncan's Spurs in the postseason during their primes.


You are overrating the talent level of the 2006 Mavericks support, if you think they could be a good fit for Garnett. And Garnett never looked really good against Duncan, neither offensively nor defensively. I don't know where the improvement should come from. He most certainly would have never be able to match Nowitzki's 27 ppg on 64.5 ts%. Additional to that Nowitzki gave the Mavericks already 13.3 rebounds per game and in critical possessions at the end of the game Nowitzki played good, physical defense against Duncan (Nowitzki blocked Duncan's layup attempt at the end of regulation in game 7 to secure the tie, for example). Do you really think that Garnett would have been able to overcome the Spurs' HCA? I really don't think so, especially not with a team which was completely structured around an elite offensive player, not around defensive player without the floor spacing ability.


As I hinted at before, at this point (for here, anyway) we may as well agree to disagree. I look at Terry and see just the kind of scoring combo guard that works well next to Garnett on offense. I see Garnett's playmaking ability allowing the Mavs to start Terry at PG and a more defensive-minded wing like Griffin while maintaining a smooth offense. I look at Howard and see the type of defender that becomes known as a defensive stopper when paired with KG, and someone that would fit well as a third offensive option playing off of KG/Terry. I see that strong offensive nucleus accounting for between 55 and 60 ppg, forming a strong team base at that end of the court.

At the other end of the court, I see the Garnett, Dampier/Diop, Griffin, Howard, Terry unit as clearly the best defense in the NBA that year. A championship caliber defense.

Overall, this is a team that wins with defense but also has three good scoring options in the starting line-up and has a good bench with Devin Harris, Stack and Diop as the primary contributors. I could definitely see them beating Duncan's Spurs (the Mavs would have the better defense of the two, I believe) and Wade's Heat (as I said, I think these Mavs would have had the pieces to form an '08 Celtics-like defense against dominant wings).

But again, that's my opinion. :Shrugs: You've made it clear that yours is different. In a separate thread on another day, maybe it'd be fun to hash this out further to see how others might see the subject. But this is off-topic in this thread (we both already voted, with Dirk over KG for the year) and these POY threads are dominating my message board time so I can't really put anything into a new thread today. But I'm sure we'll have the chance to lock horns on this again at some point.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#195 » by Doctor MJ » Tue May 4, 2010 6:28 pm

Okay, my much stressed over rankings for this year:

1. Wade
2. LeBron
3. Kobe
4. Dirk
5. Nash

Wade's the clear #1 with his title run, easy enough there. I'll go in reverse order for the rest...

Nash had a fantastic year, however in the end I'm less impressed with his run this year than in '05 or '07. '07 had the best stats - it was him at his most comfortable before he started decaying ever so slightly. '05 had a jawdropping playoff performance, and it also had the turnaround itself which is a testament to Nash. Going in as leader and coach on the floor, the actual act of the transformation has to earn some kudos.

Those who say '06 was his best year are doing so bad off of how the team overperformed based on expectations. It's not that I don't think Nash deserves credit for that, it's that I think it speaks to his general capabilities rather than a performance for this year alone. It means you should not be underestimating what he was bringing to the team in other years.

Meanwhile, this is the year of those three where there were some real struggles. The team wasn't good at the beginning of the year, and it wasn't all that great toward the end after Kurt Thomas went down. Now you might say "Can't blame Nash for his lack of big men", and I'd go with you part of the way, but on the other, might this have been a time where Kidd's rebounding ability would have proven more valuable than some of Nash's abilities? You bet. I still think Nash was great (and also better than Kidd to be clear), worthy of being significantly higher than #5 if competition was less fierce, but I think his skillset was a more perfect fit in other years.

Dirk at #4. For me the big selling point for Dirk this year is leading his team to an upset of the Spurs. Easily the greatest accomplishment of Dirk's career. The way he later let down in the finals keeps him from rising too high, but I'll give him the nod over the slightly imperfect Nash this year.

Kobe at #3. I've got issues with Kobe's use of his teammates, but the way he played down the stretch this year was stunning. Sharp contrast to the way the Suns fell apart, and frankly, just an accomplishment above what I see Dirk being capable of.

LeBron at #2. Kobe's stunning finish? Yeah, LeBron had one of those two. LeBron was the iron man this year playing more than anyone else, putting up stats that overall were just as jawdropping as Kobe's, and frankly being more impressive in the playoffs than Kobe. This was LeBron's best year until '08-09.

Honorable Mention:

Duncan - we've been over this. You can't watch him in these playoffs and not think he's a top 5 guy. My reasons for him not making the top 5 have been made clear, and I understand if you disagree.

Garnett - yup, still great. Still not so ridiculously impressed by his performance on a failure of a team that he manages to get into the top 5.

Marion - Deserves to get some love here. Really stepped up his game in Amare's absence, and didn't totally choke in the playoffs this time. Without him, particularly as the year went on and more injuries hit, the team wouldn't have been close to what they were.

Elton Brand - Solid player deserves his moment in the sun.

Billups - Disappointing loss to the Heat, but still a great regular season.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#196 » by ronnymac2 » Tue May 4, 2010 6:56 pm

mysticbb wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:mysticbb- So you think I should punish Kobe for his team losing, even though I believe he performed well individually?


Nobody is saying something about punishing him, but giving him a reward while you don't give Duncan one for a playing BETTER than Bryant in the playoffs is really weird.


There is our problem. You think Duncan clearly had a better playoffs. I don't. I think it's close and that Kobe gets enough of a boost from the playoffs that, along with his historic regular season, he surpasses Duncan overall this season. Narrowly. But he does.

I know you will use Kobe's PER to downgrade what he did in the playoffs. I remember seeing Kobe make smart post-entry passes, making smart decisions in the full court and on the pick-n-roll, playing good defense, and taking over in the clutch with aggressive play in the mid-range area to bring a superior team to the brink of elimination. He dropped 50 in game 6, but it wasn't enough. That explains his supporting cast that year.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#197 » by Sedale Threatt » Tue May 4, 2010 7:00 pm

Kobe's drop in the postseason was 90% circumstancial. If the Lakers had played anybody but the Suns, they would never have spent an entire series trying to pump the ball inside to Kwame Brown and Lamar Odom.
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#198 » by Tesla » Tue May 4, 2010 7:11 pm

1. Wade
2. Dirk
3. Kobe
4. Nash
5. James
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#199 » by Prolific Scorer » Tue May 4, 2010 8:09 pm

Wade
Dirk
LeBron
Kobe
Nash
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Re: Retro POY '05-06 (ends Wed. morning PST) 

Post#200 » by semi-sentient » Tue May 4, 2010 8:28 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:I know you will use Kobe's PER to downgrade what he did in the playoffs. I remember seeing Kobe make smart post-entry passes, making smart decisions in the full court and on the pick-n-roll, playing good defense, and taking over in the clutch with aggressive play in the mid-range area to bring a superior team to the brink of elimination. He dropped 50 in game 6, but it wasn't enough. That explains his supporting cast that year.


^^^ That's the difference between those who are watching what happens on the court and those who rely almost exclusively on statistics.
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