Retro POY '05-06 (Voting Complete)

[ElGee]

My Ballot for 2006 POY:

1. Dwyane Wade
2. Dirk Nowitzki
3. Steve Nash
4. LeBron James
5. Kevin Garnett

This year is a challenge. Yes, 7 players for 5 spots, but even more so trying to not convolute team success with individual performance, and rewarding performance instead of ability (sorry Timmy).

Intuitively, if you just asked me, “in May of 2006, who would you want to help a random team win a title?” my draft board would probably look like this:

Duncan
KG
Wade
LBJ
Dirk

But there were so many other factors to consider here: we don't have playoff data from KG and we don't have him playing in a competent situation either. I still don't think people are aware of how bad the situation in Minnesota was. I'm amazed no one has mentioned the loss of four first round draft picks from that franchise in the immediately preceding years. What would happen if 2001-2004 1st round picks were stripped from the 5 best teams that year?

Phoenix: No Amare Stoudemire.
San Antonio: No Tony Parker.
Miami: No Dwyane Wade (maybe no Shaq – Butler was part of trade)
Dallas: No Josh Howard.
Detroit: No Tayshaun Prince. No Carmelo Anthony. (Wait, they didn't draft Carmelo Anthony?)

Not to mention if Minnesota drafts remotely well all four first round picks would simply be part of the rotation. Remove four quality rotation players from any team and see how well they cope with it.

Now, Duncan had one of his worst regular seasons ever (hobbled by injury). But the Spurs still had a 99 Drt (tops in the league) and won a franchise record 63 games. So Duncan's RS wasn't that down. I'm curious, though, how we would deal with the following:

What if a player misses the first 2/3 of the season due to injury, and returns at peak Shaq or Jordan dominance and destroys the league for the playoffs, has a huge Conference Finals or Finals series and loses in OT in game 7. Would we give him absolutely no consideration because there is too much value lost in the regular season? Or would we assume any championship team can stay within striking distance of the playoffs and once the superstar returned, he gave them as good of a chance to win it all in the spring as anyone?

I'm not sure how to treat this issue in general, but for now I've decided to give the nod to KG for his regular season (better performance) and downgrade Duncan (better potential).

Dirk and Nash are in the running for No. 2. This year, Dirk gets the tiebreaker based on some ridiculous playoff performances. Nash gets the smallest of downgrades because I thought he was about 5-10% worse battling groin and back injuries down the stretch (and he was still fairly amazing).

That leaves James and Bryant. I thought they were very close in 2007, with a tiebreaker going to Kobe for reasons outlined in the 2007 thread. Here, I think LBJ had a significantly better year than he did in 2007, and 50-32 with that team and his performance in the playoffs against a 64-18 Pistons team are being strongly overlooked. Again, maybe Kobe had a slightly better year as well (compared to his 07 season), but they're definitely on the same plain for me.

[Optimism Prime]

I'll go with:

1. Dwyane Wade
2. Dirk Nowitzki
3. Kobe Bryant
4. LeBron James
5. Steve Nash

Nash, I want to place higher. I love the guy as a player, and taking a team like the 05-06 Suns as far as he did is a major accomplishment, probably his finest. I... just can't.

Why ?

Because I'd rather have the four guys ahead of him.

[mysticbb]

He blocked him from behind after an offensive rebound. Dirk Nowitzki's a great player, but if you think he defends Tim Duncan better than Kevin Garnett, I really think you need to go back and watch those games again. Duncan had 41 in game 7 - the Mavs doubled him frantically because they had no defensive answer for him. I've already shown how he does versus Garnett.

Seriously, we are talking about 2006, not 2004. Maybe you forgot about that already. And Nowitzki in the post against a not that athletic center is looking good 1on1. That is actually a strength in Nowitzki's defensive abilities. He also only defended Duncan late in the 4th quarter, they would never match him up earlier with a post player, because of possible foul trouble (and not because Nowitzki would commit the fouls on the post player, but because of the weak perimeter defense, which would allow the opponents perimeter players to go to rim and attack Nowitzki).
And one thing: Garnett in the regular season played mostly at his max level, while in the postseason he was clearly less efficient. He has a 23.6 PER in the RS, 22.8 in the playoffs, 55 ts% in the RS, 52 ts% in the playoffs. Duncan is the other way around, btw. Thus I would not assume that Garnett looks as good against Duncan as he look in two games in the 2004 regular season.

If you're arguing that pairing with him Dirk is more beneficial than pairing him with KG, that's a fair point.

Yes, that was my point.

If you're saying that Terry is only good with Dirk and would have the same effectiveness he had in Atlanta with Shareef if paired with KG, I don't see any evidence to support that.

I never said that, I said that Terry would be the best scorer on a 55 ts%, which is higher than his value in Atlanta, but lower than his value in Dallas.

Sprewell and Billups have similar skillsets to Terry????

What? Who said something about similar skillset? I wrote:

And I said no guard with a similar scoring output like Terry

Meaning, players who scored as much as Terry.

You've lost me there - the closest player on that list I see in terms of outside shooting ability is Cassell. Sure enough, at 34, Cassell shot a career best in FG% (by 1.8%) and 3pt shooting (by 3.6%) playing alongside Garnett.

Sorry, you are cherry picking one season and fg% and 3p%, while I said that they didn't improve their scoring efficiency (which means ts% here) while playing together with Garnett. Cassell had his career high in ts% in that season, but that was higher by 0.01 percentage point, not 5 or 6 as we can see it for Terry or Kidd (and I didn't pick a specific season for those).
In the next season Cassell scored on LOWER scoring efficiency, while his scoring efficiency one year later as a member of the Clippers went up again. Thus I don't see such an effect as Nowitzki has on Terry and Kidd for Garnett.

re: weak defensive point guards on good defensive teams, the first one who comes to mind also plays in Texas, Tony Parker.

Tony Parker is quicker on his feet than Terry and his bigger. That helps defensively. He has also a clearly better defensive APM (still below average), which means his defensive impact is bigger. Point was that a player can get away with a weaker defense, if the player has a little bit more size and quicker feet. Terry doesn't know how to play defense and doesn't has the tools. Even with the 4 best defensive players on each position on the Mavericks Terry looks bad on defense.

To make it clear again: I NEVER said that the Mavericks would completely suck, if you swap Nowitzki and Garnett, but that they would lose more on offense than they would gain on defense. It would be a different story, if we would talk about earlier years.

[ElGee]

He blocked him from behind after an offensive rebound. Dirk Nowitzki's a great player, but if you think he defends Tim Duncan better than Kevin Garnett, I really think you need to go back and watch those games again. Duncan had 41 in game 7 - the Mavs doubled him frantically because they had no defensive answer for him. I've already shown how he does versus Garnett.

Seriously, we are talking about 2006, not 2004. Maybe you forgot about that already.

See if you can make it one post without being rude. Thanks.

And Nowitzki in the post against a not that athletic center is looking good 1on1. That is actually a strength in Nowitzki's defensive abilities. He also only defended Duncan late in the 4th quarter, they would never match him up earlier with a post player, because of possible foul trouble (and not because Nowitzki would commit the fouls on the post player, but because of the weak perimeter defense, which would allow the opponents perimeter players to go to rim and attack Nowitzki).
And one thing: Garnett in the regular season played mostly at his max level, while in the postseason he was clearly less efficient. He has a 23.6 PER in the RS, 22.8 in the playoffs, 55 ts% in the RS, 52 ts% in the playoffs. Duncan is the other way around, btw. Thus I would not assume that Garnett looks as good against Duncan as he look in two games in the 2004 regular season.

If you're arguing that pairing with him Dirk is more beneficial than pairing him with KG, that's a fair point.

Yes, that was my point.

If you're saying that Terry is only good with Dirk and would have the same effectiveness he had in Atlanta with Shareef if paired with KG, I don't see any evidence to support that.

I never said that, I said that Terry would be the best scorer on a 55 ts%, which is higher than his value in Atlanta, but lower than his value in Dallas.

Sprewell and Billups have similar skillsets to Terry????

What? Who said something about similar skillset? I wrote:

And I said no guard with a similar scoring output like Terry

Meaning, players who scored as much as Terry.

Yes, but I was assuming you didn't really mean "scoring output" within the context of the discussion, given that we were talking about pairing players with Garnett vs. Dirk. So, I wouldn't think out-of-context raw scoring output would be germane.

You've lost me there - the closest player on that list I see in terms of outside shooting ability is Cassell. Sure enough, at 34, Cassell shot a career best in FG% (by 1.8%) and 3pt shooting (by 3.6%) playing alongside Garnett.

Sorry, you are cherry picking one season and fg% and 3p%, while I said that they didn't improve their scoring efficiency (which means ts% here) while playing together with Garnett. Cassell had his career high in ts% in that season, but that was higher by 0.01 percentage point, not 5 or 6 as we can see it for Terry or Kidd (and I didn't pick a specific season for those).
In the next season Cassell scored on LOWER scoring efficiency, while his scoring efficiency one year later as a member of the Clippers went up again. Thus I don't see such an effect as Nowitzki has on Terry and Kidd for Garnett.

How is this cherry picking? We don't have a lot of data but when he went to Minnesota his career best in those shooting categories spiked. I'm not even understanding what you're arguing anymore -- his TS% only went up 0.1% because he shot fewer FTs per game -- the only other element involved in what you're calling scoring efficiency. I don't know how to make KG or Dirk responsible for Cassell's/Terry's FTA's, so again, shooting percentages seemed like what was relevant. Unless you think Dirk creates FT's for Terry and KG somehow was responsible for Cassell not getting fouled as much...?

re: weak defensive point guards on good defensive teams, the first one who comes to mind also plays in Texas, Tony Parker.

Tony Parker is quicker on his feet than Terry and his bigger. That helps defensively. He has also a clearly better defensive APM (still below average), which means his defensive impact is bigger. Point was that a player can get away with a weaker defense, if the player has a little bit more size and quicker feet. Terry doesn't know how to play defense and doesn't has the tools. Even with the 4 best defensive players on each position on the Mavericks Terry looks bad on defense.

You asked what great defensive teams can have small, weak defensive point guards who have trouble keeping their man in front of them. I answered Tony Parker -- he fits the description. What are you arguing at this point? Wing span? Shoe size?

[mysticbb]

See if you can make it one post without being rude. Thanks.

Sorry, didn't mean to offend you. I really don't think I'm rude, maybe a bit too blunt, but that is my nature.

How is this cherry picking?

Because I said something different and didn't pick just one season. Put that together with the next season and look at the result. That is the reason you are cherry picking.

If I would do the same, I would tell you that Terry in his first year in Dallas raised his eFG% from 47.8 the season before to 57.0%, but that would be cherry picking too. And compare that to Cassell's raise in his first season with Garnett and tell me that is only remotely close.

What are you arguing at this point? Wing span? Shoe size? :-?

That Parker is better defensively than Terry? That should be really obvious. Additional to that the Spurs had only a great defense as they had Bowen as their other perimeter defender. In this season they are 8th in the league, last season they were 5th with a much worse Bowen than before. Having a great perimeter defender is helping A LOT, Nowitzki never had someone even remotely close to Bowen and the Mavericks were still able to have the 5th best defense (once) and the 9th best defense in the league (3 times). Nowitzki's defensive weaknesses are overblown. The best the Timberwolves came up with was the 6th best defense in 2004, in other years they were around 15th. Thinking that Garnett could make the Mavericks defense an All-Time great defense while keeping their offensive efficiency is somewhat weird.

[arkhimal]

1. Dwyane Wade
2. Steve Nash
3. Dirk Nowitzki
3. Tim Duncan
4. Kobe Bryant

HM: Kevin Garnet and Lebron James

[Silver Bullet]

1. Kobe Bryant
2. Steve Nash
3. Dirk Nowitzki
4. Dwyane Wade
5. Lebron James

[Doctor MJ]

'05-06 Results

Code: Select all

Player             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts   POY Shares
1. Dwyane Wade      16   6   0   1   0 205   0.891
2. Dirk Nowitzki     2  10   6   2   2 128   0.557
3. Kobe Bryant       3   3   5   6   1  95   0.413
4. Steve Nash        2   3   2   3   9  69   0.300
5. LeBron James      0   1   7   7   5  68   0.296
6. Tim Duncan        0   0   3   4   1  28   0.122
7. Kevin Garnett     0   0   0   0   5   5   0.022


[bastillon]

"Garnett can't provide spacing" was the most ridiculous comment in this thread, hands down.

[mysticbb]

"Garnett can't provide spacing" was the most ridiculous comment in this thread, hands down.

That comment was made in a comparison between Nowitzki and Garnett. Do you want to tell me that Garnett provides more spacing than a 40% 3pt shooter? Really?

[lorak]

'05-06 Results

Code: Select all

Player             1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts   POY Shares
1. Dwyane Wade      16   6   0   1   0 205   0.891
2. Dirk Nowitzki     2  10   6   2   2 128   0.557
3. Kobe Bryant       3   3   5   6   1  95   0.413
4. Steve Nash        2   3   2   3   9  69   0.300
5. LeBron James      0   1   7   7   5  68   0.296
6. Tim Duncan        0   0   3   4   1  28   0.122
7. Kevin Garnett     0   0   0   0   5   5   0.022


Hey Doctor MJ, why you give Nash 9 5th place votes and 5 to LeBron while JordansBulls wrote:

My voting would be:

1. Wade
2. Dirk
3. Kobe
4. Duncan
5. Nash/Lebron

So they should be tied.

[bastillon]

"Garnett can't provide spacing" was the most ridiculous comment in this thread, hands down.

That comment was made in a comparison between Nowitzki and Garnett. Do you want to tell me that Garnett provides more spacing than a 40% 3pt shooter? Really?

umm no, but it doesn't mean that Garnett can't provide spacing. at some point you can't get better spacing and KG drawing defenders basically to the 3P line with his 20 footers is clearly "providing" that. also, Nowitzki plays in exactly the same spots Garnett plays in. this isn't 2002 and Nellie is no longer his coach. move on. they're both high post players who shoot jumpers. both provide excellent spacing for their position.

[mysticbb]

Nowitzki plays in exactly the same spots Garnett plays in. this isn't 2002 and Nellie is no longer his coach. move on. they're both high post players who shoot jumpers. both provide excellent spacing for their position.

Nowitzki in 2006 took 271 3pt attempts and made 40.6% of those. Try again. ;)

[D Nice]

"Garnett can't provide spacing" was the most ridiculous comment in this thread, hands down.

Hmm, I'd probably have to go with the list that didn't even have Kobe in the TOP FREAKING 5.

[bastillon]

Nowitzki plays in exactly the same spots Garnett plays in. this isn't 2002 and Nellie is no longer his coach. move on. they're both high post players who shoot jumpers. both provide excellent spacing for their position.

Nowitzki in 2006 took 271 3pt attempts and made 40.6% of those. Try again.

it doesn't mean that his primary spot on the floor was high post, where Garnett operates as well. to argue that there's a significant difference between the two in spacing is to me unreasonable... but that's acceptable. to argue that Garnett "doesn't provide spacing" is just ... I don't know, really, really, really bad.

[Doctor MJ]

Hey Doctor MJ, why you give Nash 9 5th place votes and 5 to LeBron while JordansBulls wrote:

My voting would be:

1. Wade
2. Dirk
3. Kobe
4. Duncan
5. Nash/Lebron

So they should be tied.

It's good someone brought this up. The weighting here is 10-7-5-3-1. No exceptions, just like the MVP voting. If anyone makes what looks to me like a complete vote but with a tie in there, first name gets preference. As far as what's a complete voting that's my judgment call, though rest assured that anything as clear as this vote will get counted similarly.

As I look at the results, I guess this looks particularly bad because Nash end up exactly one point ahead of LeBron and I'm a known Nash fan. Please take note that I ranked LeBron ahead of Nash this year - so Nash beating LeBron was done in spite of me.

[D Nice]

Can someone point me towards the results for the 09/08/07 threads? Or perhaps just post them?

[Doctor MJ]

Can someone point me towards the results for the 09/08/07 threads? Or perhaps just post them?

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1004743

Bottom of the first post.

[sp6r=underrated]

Can someone point me towards the results for the 09/08/07 threads? Or perhaps just post them?

http://www.dolem.com/poy/

[D Nice]

Can someone point me towards the results for the 09/08/07 threads? Or perhaps just post them?

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1004743

Bottom of the first post.

Thanks.

I can't believe how highly you guys rated Duncan in 07 and Garnett in 08. IMO both guys were past their primes while Kobe, Lebron, Paul, Wade, Dirk were at the top of their respective games. Post-Season means a lot, but in Duncan's case he wasn't even a top 5 player in the RS and saw a teammate take home finals MVP.

Great discussion in those threads either way though. But christ, I saw more stats in those threads than I did studying for my accounting final.