A Treatise on Andy Marte

[Lando12]

With Peralta's struggles and Marte's general lack of playing time, I thought I would present my thoughts on Andy Marte's tenure with the Indians.

We will start with the tale of Brandon Phillips. I realize that the mere mention of Phillips on an Indians forum is akin to shouting "Fire!" in a theatre, but bear with me. Phillips had a horribly disappointing age 22 season with the Indians. As a result, he was sent down to AAA. Phillips put up a 303/363/430 line in AAA with a BB/K of 44/56. It was a solid rebound that demonstrated some of the plate discipline the Indians had always wanted. One would assume that the following year would be spent in the majors. That didn't happen. Ronnie Belliard was too good to move, so Phillips went back to AAA. Phillips saw his approach at the plate collapse with a 39/90 BB/K.

The lesson is not that letting Phillips go was a mistake. The lesson is that forcing a player to repeat a level that they have already mastered can have very bad consequences. That brings us to Andy Marte. As a 21 year old, Marte was very good in AAA. He had a 275/372/506 line with a very good 64/83 BB/K. That performance was good enough to make him BA's 14th best prospect. The Indians decided to manage his service time. His return to AAA was initially a success. His 284/394/383 line for April was a light on power, but his plate discipline was great with a 16/18 BB/K. Then something went horribly wrong. Marte's plate discpline, which had always been at the core of his prospect status, cratered. He had a 4/33 BB/K in May. His walk rate didn't recover, but he did have a power surge that June. Monthly splits aren't very useful, but the suddenness of the plate discipline collapse was just staggering. The Indians then made it clear that his stay in AAA had nothing to do with his play, as they called him up in the midst of a bad slump. The whole affair was about super 2 status.

What is the point of all this? Marte's collapse may have been the organization's fault. Phillips decided that HR were necessary to get his shot because plate discipline in AAA didn't work. Marte's fall sure seems to tell a similar story. This isn't to say that his 2006 AAA numbers should be completely discounted, just that there are potential explanations for those failings. The Indians horsed around with him, and it didn't work.Anyhow, Marte was promoted to the majors and put up an OPS+ of 81 as a 22 year old. It wasn't an impressive performance, but it honestly wasn't that bad. There are very few 22 year old rookies that don't stink.

Now we move on to 2007. Marte is penciled in as the every day 3B. The Indians had set up a Dellucci/Michaels platoon in LF. Rather than just stick Blake in RF and go with Garko at 1B, some veteran assistance was required. Trot Nixon was brought in to muddy up the situation. Blake was to move between 1B and RF with Garko as the loser of the transaction. Then Marte got hurt. Marte went to the DL and Blake moved to 3B in his absence. Blake had gotten off to a slow start, which turned around at about the time Marte got hurt. There was talk of how much nicer it was for Blake to focus on one position. By the time Marte returned, Garko was having a nice season. So Marte got sent to AAA having lost his job due to injury. He didn't respond well to the second season at AAA, so we can all imagine what happened in his third trip.

Then we come to 2008. Marte is out of options, but Blake and Garko are cemented in at the corners and Gutierrez has laid claim to RF. Marte has nowhere to go but the bench. He gets 62 PA in the team's first 86 games. He wasn't just sent to the bench, he was glued to it. After the season is lost, he was given something of a chance. He was yanked out of cold storage and shared time with Jamey Carroll. Marte was forced to bunt. A lot. He had 7 SH in 2008. His previous successful SH was in 2001. Remember, these are only the successful bunts. I don't know how many times Marte was asked to bunt only to fall behind in the count or fail to advance the runner. He was asked to bunt far more in 2008 than he ever should have been. Then there was the need to pinch hit for him. Marte started 68 games in 2008. He was replaced in 24 of those games. For those of you keeping score at home, that's just over 35% of the time. Marte's "shot" in 2008 involved never playing for half of the season, followed by the manager doing his absolute best to let Marte know that the team had not faith in him. Marte's age 24 season was a complete and total waste.

Then comes 2009. Marte is damaged goods and passes through waivers. He returns to AAA, but changes things up and murders it to the tune of a 963 OPS. With a lost MLB season, one would figure that he would play every day. Not quite. Chris Gimenez, the proud owner of a 749 OPS at AAA gets 130 MLB PA for some reason. The results are predictable. Marte ends up with a less than useful 175 PA sample to judge if his transformation is real.

Some look at Marte and claim he's been given a chance and failed. He's no longer that young and does not hold value. Balderdash. 736 PA over 5 seasons does not represent a chance. And Marte is no longer that young because he lost his job at age 23 to an injury and his age 24 season was flushed down the toilet. Between excessive screwing with his service clock and an almost vindictive manager, Marte has gotten hosed. The man deserves a chance.

[FordPrefect]

Well put. You mind if I copy and paste this? It's a shame if only Dave and I and a few others see it.

[Lando12]

Feel free.

[FordPrefect]

Like with any well thought out, rational argument over there, it's being agreed upon by some, and ignored and tacitly disagreed with by the rest.

There's just a handful of really ignorant people over there.

[DavidMcGr]

I don't think people should necessarily agree with it but I think the reasons people give for disagreeing with have mostly been flawed. It's just really disappointing to see him ride the bench despite finally producing on the major league level it's also frustrating that he can't seem to find a string of games to link together a respectable BABIP, as that would (you have to hope) surely buy him everyday playing time ala Kearns.

[Lando12]

People seem to have dug their heels in on Marte. There seems to be this belief that Marte is the product of statistical tomfoolery. He only exists due to the efforts of a few overzealous stat-heads. I suppose I should go through why Marte was once so highly regarded.

Marte played a full season of A ball at age 18. That is a feat in and of itself. To top it off, he posted an 832 OPS. Given his age and level, that is a phenomenal performance. The next season he was promoted to A+ and put up an 840 OPS. His plate discipline took a step forward that season. Again, he played a full year and was promoted one level. So the next season at AA, he put up an 889 OPS as a 20 year old. His age bears repeating. He was a full year younger than Chisenhall at these stops. He continued the one year, one level pattern and went to AAA where he posted an 872 OPS. His plate discipline numbers improved again at AAA.

This should also demonstrate how over the top his service time management was. Look at the angst over Santana having to spend a half season at AAA. The Indians forced Marte to stay at that level for 1.5 years despite already showing success at the level. It is said that if it aint broke, don't fix it. Marte wasn't broken, yet he was being treated as if something was wrong. Is it any surprise something got "fixed" along the way? Anyhow, moving on.

Marte's prospect status was not just about his bat. He had a great defensive reputation. He had a habit of being voted the best defensive 3B in the league by managers. Scouting reports loved his defense. The TotalZone data I have only runs back through 2005. It claims he saved 30 runs over his various AAA stops. There is no reason to believe that his defense collapsed like his bat. It is still good.

Whatever broke Marte probably was permanent. The elite prospect isn't coming back, at least not probably. But if we are to ignore the past and focus on the present, why not weight his 2009 heavily? That season indicated that he's at least a functional bat. Bill James, CHONE, and ZiPS all projected him to have between a 729 and 772 OPS this year. That isn't great, and it isn't the top prospect he once was. It is usable and it isn't bad. Combine that with his defense, and Marte should be a solid, inexpensive option. He would also have the elite prospect lurking beneath the surface. There is still an outside chance that he goes all Phil Nevin on us. That has value.

I'm not sure if the resistance to the move is more about Marte or Peralta. Let's look at Peralta. His minor league track record is a bit spotty, but that doesn't matter as much for him. He has a nice, long MLB track record to judge. Like Marte, he's living off of 2005. If we are to forget the distant past with Marte, Peralta's adventures as an MVP candidate need to be removed from the conversation. Since then we've seen OPS numbers of 708, 778, 804, and 690. Peralta put up a 708 OPS as a 24 year old and his window stayed open. Marte puts up a 707 OPS as a 22 year old and he's dog meat. Peralta's struggles last season were partially blamed on being yanked around in terms of position. Being yanked around hurts performance? My post on Marte's 08 season isn't far away. Back to Peralta.

Defensive statistics haven't liked Peralta's defense at SS, but we don't have enough data to make firm judgements about his defense at 3B. The early returns have been less than promising. Like Marte, the slim chance of 2005 coming back exists with Peralta.

Peralta's offensive projections fit within the same range as Marte's. His defense is still something of an unknown, but it does not seem to be very good. Peralta's 2010 money may be a sunk cost, but his 2011 money sure doesn't need to be. Marte is cheap and under team control for a few years. With Wes Hodges spending his time at 1B these days, the number of options for 3B in 2011 are limited. Why not play Marte more? Peralta's 2011 option looks less likely by the day. Marte should get a chance to establish himself at 3B.

[Lando12]

he can't seem to find a string of games to link together a respectable BABIP, as that would (you have to hope) surely buy him everyday playing time ala Kearns.

It is a bit of a catch 22. Marte won't get playing time until he has successful playing time. The mind boggles. There is also something of a quest for the next Karim Garcia going on. Rather than making decisions based on years of data, there is a desire to see two hot weeks. It's a dangerous habit.

[Lando12]

I saw the Marte situation compared to the Alex Gordon situation described here http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2010/05/03/mutual-of-omahas-alex-gordon/

I believe the comparison to be apt. The portion that I believe really speaks to the matter at hand is the following:
"they will at some point bring Gordon back, but without expectation and without a position, and it won’t work, and this will be proof to those who need proof that Gordon is a bust. Then Gordon will end up with another team, and if he’s still young enough and that team gives Gordon a real chance and appreciates his strengths, then I suspect he will blossom. And everyone will talk about that old “change of scenery” thing. And the Royals will once again wonder why good things always seem to happen to other teams."

Andy Marte currently has the lowest number of PA on the team. Just to hammer the point home, that is fewer than Grudzielanek and Redmond. As disappointing as Marte's failure to jump out as a 270/360/500 hitter has been, there is no excuse for playing him less than Grudzielanek. Grudzielanek currently has an OPS+ of 36. It's not like the guy has forced anyone's hand. Marte just isn't getting a chance. He never has gotten a chance. For Marte to play somewhat consistently he apparently needs to catch fire while playing once a week. For others like Gimenez, you need a pulse to get an opportunity.

As an organization, the Indians have done a poor job of getting value from the fringes of the roster. Bullpens have been awful. Benches have been awful. The kind of backwards thinking that nails Marte to the bench has a big hand in that. Those little bits of value add up, and failure to capitalize makes building on team on a budget that much harder.

[FordPrefect]

100% agree.

If Marte can't get the chance Valbuena got, what's the point?

I'm not even worried about Marte at this point, just that the Indians don't screw around with anyone else like they did with him.

I'm assuming LaPorta, for instance, is playing the way he is because of rehab. If he doesn't get 500-550 PAs this year something is horribly, horribly wrong.

[Lando12]

It's tough to imagine another prospect getting the same treatment. Not that everyone has learned their lesson, it's just really difficult to screw up so badly. The Indians horsed around with a guy until his performance suffered, and then used that performance as justification for horsing around with him. It's like driving a new car into a wall and then claiming it's no big loss because the car is all dented.

[Lando12]

With the Marte debacle in mind, I went back to look for similar situations. Are the Indians prone to this, or was Marte a special case?

I don't have any problem with how the Indians handled Peralta, Hafner, or Victor. Hafner probably didn't need the AAA refresher in 03, but it didn't last long. It's tough to get mad about that sort of thing. I have no problem with Valbuena's playing time. In fact, they probably brought him up a bit early. As I recall, he was close to the super 2 cutoff when brought up. I don't think it's a big deal, but the urgency was strange. I haven't had a problem with how Asdrubal was brought along. Barfield seemed fine to me. They gave him a pretty sizable chance and he was crazy terrible. Most of the time, I don't have a problem. On to the more controversial ones.

Some people are upset with how Gutierrez was used. I'm not. His 2006 campaign at AAA was unspectacular. His brief major league trial was awful. I would say let him play through it, but he had a 3/28 BB/K. That is just getting worked over. He hit a ton at AAA to start 07 and they brought him up. He had a .635 OPS through his first 40 PA and they stuck with him. He didn't share as much time with Trot Nixon as commonly believed. I guess some things could have been handled differently, but I'm OK with this.

The Grady - Juan Gone situation is pretty well known. It's tough for me to get too riled up about this because we'll never really know how things would have gone down. I don't think it's fair to scream at the FO over this when I would have to fill in so many blanks for myself. I'm suspicious of the whole mess, but I can't get too worked up beyond that.

Garko wasn't dealt with well. He hammered AAA and then had to repeat the level. This was done so he could switch positions, but that just strikes me as poor planning. Unless they had zero faith in Victor, catcher was not going to be an option. And I was always under the impression that catcher was never really an option. I don't think his repeating AAA shows that the Indians were afraid of prospects, just that they didn't think far enough ahead (sort of like Crowe to 2B). Where the Indians screwed up was with Trot Nixon. Rather than just let Garko play 1B, he was platooned with Nixon. That was kind of Marte-like. He repeated AAA for reasons that weren't his fault, and then his poor repeat season made the team wary of him. The situation with Garko only sorted itself out when Marte got boned.

There was another prospect involved in the great Nixon caper. Choo was a perfectly capable OF. His subsequent injury makes people forget that the Indians sent Choo back to AAA after a find MLB trial for Trot Nixon. That was pure veterans first nonsense. The team already had 2 veteran platoon OF when Nixon was signed. The need to drop a few million on the pie man showed a tremendous lack of faith in several different prospects.

Then there was LaPorta. LaPorta's 2009 season didn't make any sense. Avoiding super 2 made plenty of sense. Platooning him with Dellucci was stupid. Benching him because Dellucci looked Wedge in the eye was just unreal. In the big picture, it was a minor issue. I do think it gave a small window into how management thought, and in that sense it was incredibly damning. Honestly, I find that the whole look in the eyes mess is enough justification for firing Wedge.

Looking at this, I'm not too concerned for the immediate future. They don't just jerk every prospect around. When the team fancies itself a contender, look out. That is when the silliness starts.

[FordPrefect]

The buzzards are already circling LaPorta, calling for him to be sent to AAA. That again maes no sense.

The entire thing gives me a headache. We're going nowhere, still there's no patience.

Also, they need to question everything they've done in the past 4 years. Because the rate of developed prospects just dwindled to Droobs, Choo, and ... who exactly? Everyone else failed. Everyone. And it wasn't just bad prospects - they never ranked that low on the BA rankings. And even if you put aside Miller and Aubrey, who I don't blame them for, things are bad.

Guthrie is another one, though I still think his talent was overblown.

Despite not winning anything other than a single trip to the postseason, they made veloping players such a low priority that even with returns from last year's trades they still have a crappy, crappy team.

Imagine if Marte was league average, or they had some other starter in the 2 or 3 spot besides Carmona and Westbrook. Anything! They knew last year would be crucial with LaPorta and they Wedge dick him around even after Dellucci and Francisco were gone.

Wedge managed like he was Joe Torre even when the Indians were 20 games out on July 31. The obtuseness was amazing.

I mean, it's not that difficult to weigh a bunch of different priorities, right? Especially if THAT IS YOUR JOB.

[Lando12]

Hopefully those buzzards circling LaPorta remain in the bleachers and don't make their way to the FO. I get the feeling that LaPorta is always going to be a disappointment to many fans. Paul Konerko has a career .847 OPS. Justin Morneau has a career .860 OPS. Expectations for prospects seem awfully high. I don't know if the prospects from any of the big trades will ever be able to do enough.

I don't know if prospects have dwindled so much as never been very good. Look at BA's top 10 from 2007. In order from first to tenth it goes: Miller, Lofgren, Crowe, Sipp, Barton, Drennen, Lewis, Snyder, Hodges, Huff. I don't think the results have been that disappointing. That just isn't a very good list. The reasons for that lack of talent could be discussed in countless threads. I was going to look into the draft, but the research on that is a nightmare.

I absolutely agree that much of what Wedge did was inexcusable. The scariest part is that I don't know where Wedge ended and Shapiro began. That whole mess did change my mind on the whole GM-manager partnership thing. The FO is supposed to see the big picture, and it was their duty to enforce that vision on the manager. Some things never should have been allowed, and that falls on the GM.

[FordPrefect]

I still think the root of this problem has something to do with Shapiro's insecurity over implementing ideas; he surrounds himself with baseball people and seems very, very sensitive (though I HATE HATE HATE emotional analysis like this) to the charge that he doesn't know baseball because he didn't play. But he just compulsively srrounds himself with a legion of former baseball advisers that end up having more influence that a thousand Keith Woolner's would.

At some point, Shapiro decided to stop being an innovator, to stop being the person driving innovative thinking and to start following common wisdom.

Remember the days when the Indians would be ahead of the curve? Now the Red Sox are ahead of the curve, and I don't even know where the Indians are on the curve, if they even recognize that there is a curve. Seriously, we've seen a slow resurgence of defense the past 5 years or so. Is there ANY indication the Indians are implementing ANY of those ideas? None, unless you count moving Cabrera to SS to make room for Luis "whoops, there goes the game on a ball between my legs" Valbuena. They've buried the best defender on their roster. They traded the best defender in aseball the past decade and a half for a UIF and a pitcher who sucks. It's been a disaster.

But from the winter after 2005 on, there has been something deeply conventional about the Indians.

I hope that Antonetti targeting Acta is a sign of change. He needs to get in there with a broom. Everyone but Woolner should be up for review. Unless they can find someone better than Woolner, but who knows who that would even be.

[DavidMcGr]

I don't know. I look back at the past 5 years or so and two things pop out to me. The first being that they pretty damn unlucky in terms of prospects. Miller and Aubrey got hurt and Marte and Escobar bombed. Everyone else (outside of Choo and Hafner and I suppose Cabreara) have universally sucked relative to their projections and upsides. These things happen all of the time but it's unusual for it to happen this often with one club. Could it be their fault? Sure, but a good deal of it is simply bad luck in book (at least with today's ability for talent evaluations). The other part is that we have, largely, been trying to contend. This is why we've targeted significantly more lower-upside college players who could contribute to the ML-team much faster. I think we've realized that this isn't the best way to run a club (at least not exclusively drafting this way) and have made some great changes over the past 2 or 3 years but I can see why they tried out the logic at the time (it worked for Oakland when they were ahead of the curve but it got the point where the good college players were being taken so the Indians were left with lackluster options).

Fans always want to look to the future with a glass half full outlook but I just have a hard time believe that our current pool of prospect talent will fail nearly as much as the talent pool we had over the past 5 years. I suppose we'll wait and see but we've finally loaded up on high-potential talent that is succeed through the minors and while some (ie: most) will not pan out I have a hard time believing that at least a few won't become above average majors leaguers or more.

[FordPrefect]

Choo and Cabrera are two of three position player prospects to get full playing time since 2005 - the other being Valbuena, who isn't as bad as he looks but it's clear he is not going to break out. I don't think playing a legit prospect full time in the majors for a year or so is sufficient to develop them, but it seems necessary. I don't think you can just plop someone on the bench and expect them to develop into a regular two or even four days a week. Not in today's game, at least. Maybe if someone is already an excellent contact hitter ... but that doesn't describe any of our prospects at all.

Luck had 100% to do with Miller and Aubrey, and I would argue to some extent with Carmona too.

I see our offense getting better but I still don't see pitching relief in the long run.

[DavidMcGr]

Really? I question of our offense will seriously improve but I can't see how our pitching won't. Clearly not all of:

Carrasco
Rondon
Hagadone
Knapp
House
White
Perez
De La Cruz
Putnam
Gardner
and other potential surprises/breakouts

are going to work out but at least a few will and they all have MOR+ upside. We don't have a problem finding guys to fill in at the bottom the rotation so if a few do end up slotting closer to the top of the rotation then we'll be a lot better. Also, I think it's reasonable to expect us to have an elite pen if needed given that guys like Hagadone, White, Putnam and could move there in a snap and we have a few very promising relief prospects already (Judy and Stowell are standouts in my mind but CC Lee and others don't look too shabby either).

[FordPrefect]

To be fair, i take a very pessmistic view of pitching relief.

I'd discount anyone who hasn't hit AA yet, and of the two at AA, Rondon has been worse than horrible this year and Carrasco ... I still wonder about the emotional issues reported on. Say what you will about Fausto and CC, but they were held back because of them for a good part of their careers.

I'm sure we'll still get decent prospects coming, but we need luck to get an ace type. And when I see luck and Cleveland Indians, I expect bad luck.

So it's not so much stats as just a gut feeling.

[DavidMcGr]

I think it's foolish to look at individual low level prospect and expect gold but I also think it's foolish to discount ample high upside depth in the lower levels, especially when they're performing well, most are in A+ and when we're talking about years down the line.

[Lando12]

At some point, Shapiro decided to stop being an innovator, to stop being the person driving innovative thinking and to start following common wisdom.

Was he ever a real innovator? Shapiro has done some really good things, but I don't know if any of those moves qualify as innovative. I don't think that Shapiro has changed so much as the story of Shapiro has changed. When Dellucci was signed, Shapiro was praised. People compared Dellucci/Michaels to Carlos Lee and Shapiro was lauded as the stat savvy genius. A few years later and the Dellucci signing is pointed to as evidence that Shapiro has an irrational love of veterans. The move didn't change, but the narrative did.

After Moneyball, people have started to view GMs as stars. Shapiro was one such star. Instead of wondering why his star has faded, we should probably ask ourselves if he was ever a star in the first place. There are parts of the sabermetric community that get carried away with this stuff. Now that they have moved on to new star GMs, Shapiro's fall seems severe. He's not the genius anymore.

Looking at the whole body of work, I don't think Shapiro's strengths and weaknesses have changed. He still knows when to pull the plug and make tough trades. He still pulls the occasional heist (I'm looking at you, Colletti). There have always been a few questionable vets on the roster, and the bullpens have always been grab bags. What has changed is the hero worship, and that was probably crap in the first place. Just wait until people realize that Jack Z's 90+ million defensive juggernaut can't hit. He'll get turned on and some new hero will emerge.

On a positive note, there are good player development signs. Look at the BA list I posted. There isn't a single international FA on it. Now the organization has Gomez, Rondon, De La Cruz, Perez, Frias, Salazar, Rivero, Sanchez, Abreu, and Cid floating around. Those aren't all great prospects, but they do represent a huge improvement. Who was signed between Carmona/Peralta and Rondon/Gomez/etc? Ed Mujica and Rafael Perez? Yuck. It's tough to get too angry about player development when the organization still bears scars from a half dozen years ago. The drafting has not been good enough, but there are still good things happening. I'm determined to be positive on this.