Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST)

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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Wed morning PST) 

Post#141 » by ElGee » Tue May 11, 2010 10:57 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:
ElGee wrote:
ronnymac2 wrote:Ronny, I think you're missing my point. Shaq still had HCA because he played on a good team -- better than Duncan's. He could have played 30 games and still in theory had HCA...so I'll elaborate:

Player A and Player B are very close in performance and impact. Player A might be slightly better, but maybe not good enough to beat Player B if they had similar teams without HCA. So, after how many missed games does he realistically surrender having HCA if it's that close?

The better Player A is compared to player B, the more regular season games he can miss, and the less of an impact HCA might have in the playoffs...so then I think you just need to figure out how many games Player A would need to play to make the playoffs. In this case, Duncan and Shaq seem pretty close, and I think it's a relevant factor.


Oh okay. I get what you mean now.

Yeah, I guess. Do you think if LA only won 57 games and SA had HCA, that SA would have won the series?

My response: I don't think it is fully the star player's responsibility to win without HCA. What if he plays the exact same way, but his teammates fail, you know? Again, I don't hold it against Tim that he lost, or that he lost without HCA. If you are the better team, you'll find a way to win with or without HCA a vast majority of the time.


Regular season games played is something I think about, but it's not a major breaking point of my critiria. Unless you miss playoff games or like, half the season, I'm probably not going to penalize you. Especially if I feel the guy was the best player in the league, was the most dominant statistically, and won a title.


Sorry if I was vague. I agree about winning without (or even with) HCA -- it's not someone's responsibility. I try to look at how player's played independently from team results. In this case, I see Duncan and Shaq as close, so those 15 missed games/rounding in shape might actually matter if they had comparable teams (which they didn't) and it cost Shaq's squad HCA. To me, that's the balancing act in judging how much regular season injuries matter.

Then again, are there situations where it could never matter? Jordan in 1986 + a good team could still result in a championship because of Jordan (assuming he were head and shoulders better than everyone, and assuming all championship supporting casts have some minimum expectation of being a playoff team).
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#142 » by Silver Bullet » Tue May 11, 2010 11:02 pm

ElGee wrote:
mysticbb wrote:
ElGee wrote:So, from what we have, these two numbers might have the highest correlation, but actually slowing down opposing players, disrupting shots, deflections, charges, and forced turnovers would collectively all trump anything that is currently in the box score.


Actually we have "forced turnovers" and surprisingely the correlation coefficient is less for those than for the own turnovers on offense. But overall I agree, the boxscore is biased towards offense. Some of those things are really valuable in the context of defense. BUT you can make an argument that deflections and disrupting shots are somewhat covered by steals and blocked shots.
Anyway, I would really like to have a boxscore with those kind of things you mentioned for each individual player. Also on offense something like "hockey assists" or screens. More information gives us the opportunity to rely more on facts. Well, as long as that means we still want to watch the games. In the last two weeks I re-watched a couple of games and a lot of youtube videos. I definitely spent too much time on this. :)


Just a quick aside on screens since you have used the argument a lot. 95% of NBA players set screens the same way. In general, the bigger and stronger, the better. Those who set slightly "harder" or more effective screens don't deviate that much from the average screens. The range of this skill does not vary too much.

Similarly, most players are subject to screens in the same manner. Again, I'd say a few defenders are better at hedging or sliding under/over more quickly and harder, but the range of this skill also doesn't vary too much -- I've yet to see an NBA player who can move through screens. :o


I would disagree to a certain extent

First, size need not equal good screener - Steve Nash is someone who is much better than average in setting screens. Derek Fisher might be GOAT for the PG position. Andy Varejao, Kevin Garnett, Joakim Noah vs Chris Bosh, Pau Gasol, Yao Ming.

Second, it's not setting the screen, it's setting screens that are not part of a designed play - some people, again most notably Varejao and KG are miles ahead of anyone else in this regard -

Third, calling out screens is much more important than you acknowledge. You can't hedge a screen if you don't know it's been set. You can look at Bosh vs Garnett to see how two similarly sized players can be worlds apart when it comes to such a basic (can't even call it a skill) thing.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#143 » by bastillon » Tue May 11, 2010 11:04 pm

Ronnymac wrote:Regular season games played is something I think about, but it's not a major breaking point of my critiria. Unless you miss playoff games or like, half the season, I'm probably not going to penalize you. Especially if I feel the guy was the best player in the league, was the most dominant statistically, and won a title.


how Shaq was the most dominant statistically ? I have no problem with you saying best player in the league based on this gut feeling. I don't know though, what you're refering to in this case. Duncan outclassed Shaq statistically if you talk about it from all-year perspective... and then he dominated head2head too. I just don't see how you can make that case after seeing the head2head numbers which weren't JUST in Tim's favor but clearly seperated him in the series... and that's after he outplayed him during the course of the RS. I don't see it.

Tesla wrote:^ I guess its what you value you more, in hindsight we know that Kobe with a crappy supporting cast can carry the load, make it to the playoffs, make some noise, but get eliminated early... just like Tmac. What is the unknown or perhaps rather somewhat known, is that Tmac has never proved he could do what Kobe did and that's be second fiddle deep into the playoffs and win championships. People for whatever reason use the reverse logic on this one, where as I see it as this is the only way it kind of makes sense.


I don't think that's fair to compare 06-07 Kobe to 02-03 T-Mac... or maybe let's put it that way: it's unfair because you bringing up Kobe's better version and in this comparison you're supposed to show that T-Mac 02 was worse/as good as/whatever Kobe 02. from what we know, Shaq did miss games every year and Kobe wasn't leading them to anywhere. I don't think he could dominate as much without the rules benefiting perimeter players and further improvement in his game. if you're taking peak Kobe from mid-late 00s, I'd reconsider my statement. but this is early 00s Kobe who was IMO clearly worse than McGrady. look up T-Mac's teammates ... and he still managed to take them to the playoffs while playing much better than Shaq-less early 00s Kobe.

Tesla wrote:Besides your really embellishing how "bad" Kobe played.... The Lakers had really no problem getting by anybody but one team that year, and they could just run the offense accordingly and be OK (except against Sacramento), and sometimes when you are a scorer like Kobe or Tmac or whoever (and IMO there is more evidence to support this than the other way around) it is harder to be efficient because of rhythm. The whole "open looks" crap is bs most the time unless your talking about complete role players that are spot up shooters and such, or big men that are able to just catch and finish at a good rate. Kobe came up huge in those last two wins against Sacramento. And 26/6/5 on 43%fg, 38%3PT isn't completley inefficient, he just sucked at the FT line for whatever reason lol... but whatever the case, that stat line is nothing to be embarrassed about especially when you win the chip on route... look at Pierce's statline in 07-08 throughout the playoffs and people are goo-goo gaga all over his playoff run that year.


first, I think late 00s Pierce is very overrated. legit all-star player but hardly anything more than that. he was disappointing in 08 until Radmanovic and Walton showcased their ability to make players around them better. seriously, Pierce isn't getting recognition if he doesn't get to play against one of the worst defensive combo of SFs in finals history.

that being said, I'm penalizing Kobe exactly because of that Sacto series. not only that, he was cold all postseason, but that thing especially. actually they could've lost very easily (and I think refs had their hands all over that series btw) and this was partly because of Bryant's low efficiency as a scorer. how close they were ? IIRC Stojakovic had a wide open game-winner in game 7 that would pretty much end the series... but he airballed it. I bet he must be despairing over this till now. anyway, the point is that Kobe's play in the postseason was very costly and there is no way you can justify iversoning which Kobe was guilty of.

bastillon wrote:Well, clearly superior team?


my memory about that series is that Nash did whatever the hell he wanted against every Wolves defender and it created tons of openings which Finley and co capitalized on. besides Garnett Wolves really had nobody to protect the paint so KG had to help unless they wanted a lay-up fest. that left Nowitzki open couple of times, but he wasn't doing well against KG when left 1vs1 in general. I remember you arguing once that Nowitzki torched Garnett's ass based on some YouTube clip so I went back and watched that game and he was actually struggling.

but that was minor part of the series anyway. most of the time Wolves played that zone defense and there was no way you can blame KG for this. I think he could limit Nowitzki in theory, but what would it matter if Nash could explode for any-number and then you had also multiple volume scorers in Finley etc. that Dallas team was stacked offensively and it was better for them to use KG as a roamer rather than limiting one guy and making others explode. let's keep in mind that this is quite poor defensive team without KG and their system isn't very effective either. on top of that you have top1 offense going up against you and there's simply not much you can do defensively.

the difference in that series came down to depth. Wolves really had 3 players that could play at star level. KG, Billups and Wally. then the team was just crap. Rasho managed to amass 6.7 RPG in 30 MPG and gather an outstanding -0.013 WS. that was valuable for standards of that team. I bet KG would be much more competitive in that series if there was any depth.

NO-KG-AI wrote:i don't get how you can adjust Jason Kidd's D relative to position, and not do the same for KG's passing.

If you are doing it by position, Garnett's passing is more rare than Kidd's was, and even though he wasn't Shaq or Wilt, he was still a far more efficient scorer than Kidd.


yeah, I don't get it either. he's basically saying Jason Kidd can anchor all-time great defenses yet he's never been able to affect his team as elite bigs do. obviously Kidd's impact comes nowhere close to elite defensive big. if we put average PG on those Nets, they'd still be top5 defense. Wolves without Garnett don't have any rebounding, nonexistent shotblocking, no perimeter defense, nothing. that's a recipe for bottom 5. I don't see how this would be close given their +/- defensive numbers were KG consistently trumps JK.

my argument against Jason is scoring. as Ronnymac said/emphasized, iso scoring/creating off the dribble is extremely important in the playoffs. you can make a great case for Tony Parker being a better off the dribble playmaker in the half court set. Kidd simply doesn't put much pressure on the opponents and he can't score to save his life either. his offensive value is pretty much reduced to rebounding, getting your team to offensive sets/executing that set and transition. he has very little value in the half court. there's a reason why his teams are almost always at the bottom of the league offensively when he has a large role.

look at Kidd/Nash comparison if you want to get the idea:
team ORtg

Code: Select all

              Nash      Kidd
    2001       4         22
    2002       1         17
    2003       1         18
    2004       1         25
    2005       1         26
    2006       2         25
    2007       1         16


hard to argue against it. there's simply very little evidence to think Kidd comes anywhere close to Garnett offensively when KG anchored multiple top5 offenses and the other played on multiple bottom 5 teams... and then on defense it becomes even more lopsided because of the whole big >>> small thing. I can't imagine someone really believing Kidd has similar impact actually. it's funny what historically bad competition can do with you. there seems to be a consensus that prime Kidd was some insanely great player and there was no such thing before 2002. kind of revionist history, huh ?
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#144 » by mysticbb » Tue May 11, 2010 11:11 pm

ElGee wrote:Both these distributions would be extremely narrow if we graphed them, and as such, I tend to rarely ever discuss screening in basketball analysis. It's part of the game, and the difference in almost all screens in college and the NBA is negligible.


Actually you are right about that, but you are thinking a bit shortsighted here. I just give you an example, because a video can make my point clearer, I guess.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5Yphj_hHLg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG1nAjtUPEQ

That is the same play both times. As you can see, the question is not the screen itself, but the possibilities out of it. The interior defender can pick his poison here, either try to defend Beaubois by closing the lane and leave Nowitzki wide open or stay with Nowitzki and let Beaubois make the dunk. Well, if Dampier sets that screen for example, the choice is easy, just give him that open shot, but with Nowitzki neither choice is good. That is the reason why a screen by a good jump shooter is more valuable. Now you also might understand why the Terry&Nowitzki pick&roll is working so well, because it is just way harder to defend.
Nowitzki is big enough to set really effective screens, smaller players have more trouble with that. That makes a screen by Nowitzki so dangerous for the defense (or one by Garnett too, who is also really good at knocking down that open midrange shot).


@bastillon

I can remember talking about that with you specifically, and I pointed out specific scenes at the beginning of the games in which Garnett wasn't able to defend Nowitzki. Saunders later switched to the zone defense, because of the perimeter trouble, but also because Garnett wasn't any good at defending Nowitzki by himself.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#145 » by bastillon » Tue May 11, 2010 11:17 pm

I can remember talking about that with you specifically, and I pointed out specific scenes at the beginning of the games in which Garnett wasn't able to defend Nowitzki. Saunders later switched to the zone defense, because of the perimeter trouble, but also because Garnett wasn't any good at defending Nowitzki by himself.


IIRC Nowitzki struggled in that game before the zone so either I'm dead wrong or Saunders switched because he did it all season.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#146 » by ElGee » Tue May 11, 2010 11:22 pm

Silver Bullet wrote:I would disagree to a certain extent

First, size need not equal good screener - Steve Nash is someone who is much better than average in setting screens. Derek Fisher might be GOAT for the PG position. Andy Varejao, Kevin Garnett, Joakim Noah vs Chris Bosh, Pau Gasol, Yao Ming.

Second, it's not setting the screen, it's setting screens that are not part of a designed play - some people, again most notably Varejao and KG are miles ahead of anyone else in this regard -

Third, calling out screens is much more important than you acknowledge. You can't hedge a screen if you don't know it's been set. You can look at Bosh vs Garnett to see how two similarly sized players can be worlds apart when it comes to such a basic (can't even call it a skill) thing.


1. OK.
2. Most wings call for a pick on a breakdown, most bigs are conditioned to provide one if close. How many times a game do you think Varejao lends an amazing, improv screen when another wouldn't?
3. Yes, defensive communication is important.

You have to ask yourself, if you take the guys you consider to be the best screeners, and use them on all screens, how much better does your offense become? 0.5/100? a whole point/100?

On defense, you have to ask yourself what happens to a player's shooting percentage when the closeout guy is 6-12 inches closer on average - do you think his FG% drops even 1%? How many points/100 does that matter?

Screening, in essence, is a constant, not a variable.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#147 » by mysticbb » Tue May 11, 2010 11:23 pm

bastillon wrote:IIRC Nowitzki struggled in that game before the zone so either I'm dead wrong or Saunders switched because he did it all season.


Well, we could go on about that again, and it would end like the last time. I will not give Garnett a free pass for that sweep, and you will blame Garnett's teammates and coach. Thus we should probably just leave it at this and I'm sure we will not stumble about that again. Agree to disagree?
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#148 » by ElGee » Tue May 11, 2010 11:28 pm

mysticbb wrote:
ElGee wrote:Both these distributions would be extremely narrow if we graphed them, and as such, I tend to rarely ever discuss screening in basketball analysis. It's part of the game, and the difference in almost all screens in college and the NBA is negligible.


Actually you are right about that, but you are thinking a bit shortsighted here. I just give you an example, because a video can make my point clearer, I guess.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5Yphj_hHLg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG1nAjtUPEQ

That is the same play both times. As you can see, the question is not the screen itself, but the possibilities out of it. The interior defender can pick his poison here, either try to defend Beaubois by closing the lane and leave Nowitzki wide open or stay with Nowitzki and let Beaubois make the dunk. Well, if Dampier sets that screen for example, the choice is easy, just give him that open shot, but with Nowitzki neither choice is good. That is the reason why a screen by a good jump shooter is more valuable. Now you also might understand why the Terry&Nowitzki pick&roll is working so well, because it is just way harder to defend.
Nowitzki is big enough to set really effective screens, smaller players have more trouble with that. That makes a screen by Nowitzki so dangerous for the defense (or one by Garnett too, who is also really good at knocking down that open midrange shot).


@bastillon

I can remember talking about that with you specifically, and I pointed out specific scenes at the beginning of the games in which Garnett wasn't able to defend Nowitzki. Saunders later switched to the zone defense, because of the perimeter trouble, but also because Garnett wasn't any good at defending Nowitzki by himself.


Yes, defensively, dealing with screens is more important. I don't see this puzzle as something inherent in screening, but instead because Nowitzki is such a good shooter. Similarly, I don't think of Frye as a great screener...but if you use him in the pick and pop, the manner in which to defend that becomes a problem for an opposing big...because of his shooting.

I encourage everyone to watch offenses off the ball more, or focus on how defenders respond to PnR action. Screens create an advantage for every NBA team. They are difficult to deal with defensively. But every NBA team doesn't have the same success, and it's not because of screens. Scheme, length, shooting ability, quickness, speed, and strength all have more to do with results on these plays than the variance in screening quality.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#149 » by bastillon » Tue May 11, 2010 11:30 pm

mysticbb wrote:
bastillon wrote:IIRC Nowitzki struggled in that game before the zone so either I'm dead wrong or Saunders switched because he did it all season.


Well, we could go on about that again, and it would end like the last time. I will not give Garnett a free pass for that sweep, and you will blame Garnett's teammates and coach. Thus we should probably just leave it at this and I'm sure we will not stumble about that again. Agree to disagree?


I'm not trying to convince you either. it's just you got me confused and I don't know if what you're saying is true or not. I'll watch that game tomorrow and maybe post some results. my memory right now is that Dirk struggled in that game so it's really pointless to argue for his defensive liabilities based on that sample.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#150 » by bastillon » Tue May 11, 2010 11:32 pm

I encourage everyone to watch offenses off the ball more, or focus on how defenders respond to PnR action. Screens create an advantage for every NBA team. They are difficult to deal with defensively. But every NBA team doesn't have the same success, and it's not because of screens. Scheme, length, shooting ability, quickness, speed, and strength all have more to do with results on these plays than the variance in screening quality.


this is what made me realize just how nasty Garnett is. not only he's one of the best ever in getting away with illegal screens on offense and knows when to set it, but most importantly his defense is most of the time so good that there's no opening after p'n'r. this is maybe the biggest reason why the Celtics were at THAT all-time level defensively in 08.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#151 » by mysticbb » Tue May 11, 2010 11:35 pm

ElGee wrote:Yes, defensively, dealing with screens is more important. I don't see this puzzle as something inherent in screening, but instead because Nowitzki is such a good shooter. Similarly, I don't think of Frye as a great screener...but if you use him in the pick and pop, the manner in which to defend that becomes a problem for an opposing big...because of his shooting.


Not only shooting, also his size which makes it harder for the defense and his ability to set better screens than smaller players, even if you think the difference isn't huge, it is still there. That increases his value on offense in comparison to a wing player who can't do that as good. Another point is that a good offense depends on screens, and that shouldn't be ignored here, especially when we are talking about shooting bigs and their impact on offense besides shooting.


ElGee wrote:I encourage everyone to watch offenses off the ball more, or focus on how defenders respond to PnR action. Screens create an advantage for every NBA team. They are difficult to deal with defensively. But every NBA team doesn't have the same success, and it's not because of screens. Scheme, length, shooting ability, quickness, speed, and strength all have more to do with results on these plays than the variance in screening quality.


Very good idea, I can just agree with that.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#152 » by ElGee » Tue May 11, 2010 11:38 pm

bastillon wrote:
I encourage everyone to watch offenses off the ball more, or focus on how defenders respond to PnR action. Screens create an advantage for every NBA team. They are difficult to deal with defensively. But every NBA team doesn't have the same success, and it's not because of screens. Scheme, length, shooting ability, quickness, speed, and strength all have more to do with results on these plays than the variance in screening quality.


this is what made me realize just how nasty Garnett is. not only he's one of the best ever in getting away with illegal screens on offense and knows when to set it, but most importantly his defense is most of the time so good that there's no opening after p'n'r. this is maybe the biggest reason why the Celtics were at THAT all-time level defensively in 08.


I'm not sure what was better - KG's PnR defense or his help defense in 08. His off-ball help was ridiculous. A match made in basketball heaven, KG and Thibideau.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#153 » by mysticbb » Tue May 11, 2010 11:42 pm

bastillon wrote:his defensive liabilities based on that sample.


Damn, you realise that having trouble with defending Nowitzki is hardly a "defensive liability"? Look what Nowitzki done to other players who are also known for good or even great 1on1 defense. He abused Kenyon Martin, for example, he toyed with Duncan in the playoffs a couple of times (the reason why the Spurs tried to avoid a 1on1 between Nowitzki and Duncan on defense), you have to realise that good offense beats good defense, that's just is it. And yes, Nowitzki struggled a bit in game 2, but hardly because of the good defense by Garnett. But in game 1 and game 3 there was no struggling by Nowitzki.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#154 » by semi-sentient » Tue May 11, 2010 11:43 pm

Well, some of these arguments have made me change my mind on Kidd. I bumped him out of my list and replaced him with Dirk.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#155 » by bastillon » Tue May 11, 2010 11:43 pm

I'm not sure why people are giving so much credit to Thibodeau. as Garnett regressed as a player Celtics defense took a big drop off. then obviously you had last year when Bulls and Magic did what they wanted against their D. what is it then ? if Thibodeau was so great they'd be great without KG too. I don't know.

I admire Pop's schemes much more. I regard him very highly in general, but there were times when SAS played very good D last series when there was Blair, Bonner, Hill, Manu and Parker. that's ridiculous coaching. ridiculous-good.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#156 » by bastillon » Tue May 11, 2010 11:45 pm

mysticbb wrote:
bastillon wrote:his defensive liabilities based on that sample.


Damn, you realise that having trouble with defending Nowitzki is hardly a "defensive liability"? Look what Nowitzki done to other players who are also known for good or even great 1on1 defense. He abused Kenyon Martin, for example, he toyed with Duncan in the playoffs a couple of times (the reason why the Spurs tried to avoid a 1on1 between Nowitzki and Duncan on defense), you have to realise that good offense beats good defense, that's just is it. And yes, Nowitzki struggled a bit in game 2, but hardly because of the good defense by Garnett. But in game 1 and game 3 there was no struggling by Nowitzki.


defensive liability = inability to lock Dirk forcing Saunders to use zone defense - that's what I meant.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#157 » by mysticbb » Tue May 11, 2010 11:51 pm

bastillon wrote:defensive liability = inability to lock Dirk forcing Saunders to use zone defense - that's what I meant.


Ah, got it. But it wasn't meant like that. Saunders didn't change it just because Garnett wasn't able to defend Nowitzki, but because he thought it might be better to play zone to defend the perimeter better. It worked somewhat in game 1. If Garnett would have been able to really shut Nowitzki down, he wouldn't have changed that. That is my point.

Garnett not shuting down Nowitzki != Garnett a defensive liability ;)

bastillon wrote:I'm not sure why people are giving so much credit to Thibodeau.


Because Thibodeau is the mind behind the defense of the Knicks for the 2nd half of the 90's? Maybe because Thibodeau also help to create the defense of the Rockets later? Thibodeau created great defensive teams without Garnett.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#158 » by bastillon » Tue May 11, 2010 11:56 pm

I'd like to see some data with/without Thibodeau to see some real results that'd impress me. IIRC Knicks had historically great defense in 93 and 94 (like top10 since merger), so I'm sceptical.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Thu morning PST) 

Post#159 » by NO-KG-AI » Wed May 12, 2010 1:46 am

Thibodeau put in some great mindsets, but he had some nice anchors as well.

Boston is very forgettable on D without KG.
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Re: Retro POY '01-02 (ends Wed morning PST) 

Post#160 » by ronnymac2 » Wed May 12, 2010 3:47 am

ElGee wrote:Sorry if I was vague. I agree about winning without (or even with) HCA -- it's not someone's responsibility. I try to look at how player's played independently from team results. In this case, I see Duncan and Shaq as close, so those 15 missed games/rounding in shape might actually matter if they had comparable teams (which they didn't) and it cost Shaq's squad HCA. To me, that's the balancing act in judging how much regular season injuries matter.

Then again, are there situations where it could never matter? Jordan in 1986 + a good team could still result in a championship because of Jordan (assuming he were head and shoulders better than everyone, and assuming all championship supporting casts have some minimum expectation of being a playoff team).


Nah, I understand. It was clear.

Let me put it this way. If Shaq's team won 57 games in 2002 (say a player hits a buzzer-beater in a game Shaq played in), and Shaq's met up with SAS in the semi's (SAS has HCA), and Shaq's team loses (or wins...doesn't matter, but saying Lakers lose proves my point a little more strongly), I'd still put O'neal ahead of Duncan.

To reiterate what I said before: I value who the player is and what he does on the floor a lot, and missing a not-insane amount of games (as long as it is only regular season games) isn't going to get a huge reaction from me.
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