The Amare Stoudemire Non-Trade: Great Article

[Sun Scorched]

One of the more interesting articles I've read lately. Posted on RealGM's main page.

The residue of trades that are discussed, reported and eventually do not happen rarely remain on our collective consciousness for very long.

In the MLB, there was always that rumored Joe DiMaggio for Ted Williams trade between Tom Yawkey and Larry MacPhail-- agreed to and eventually fell apart when the Yankees refused to include a very young Yogi Berra.

While the Amare Stoudemire to Cleveland trade talks will not become a tale of larger than life mythology, it is already perhaps the most meaningful non-deal in NBA history.

We never really know how close teams genuinely were to agreeing to trades that do not get faxed into the league office for approval, but the discussions between former teammates Danny Ferry and Steve Kerr did appear real and intense. The negotiations had several machinations, but the sticking point appeared to be second-year forward J.J. Hickson (1), if you believe the discussions weren't a smokescreen to make sure Hickson wasn't included in the deal that did actually happen.

The Cavaliers, who also were in trade talks with the Pacers for Troy Murphy, ultimately settled on acquiring Antawn Jamsion in a deal that did not include Hickson with their price merely being the remaining two seasons of Jamison's eight-figure salary.

The impact of that non-deal has of course hit both the Cavaliers and Suns, with the former on the brink of elimination in the second round and the latter having finally defeated the Spurs in the playoffs to be merely four wins away from their first Finals appearance since 1993.

If Kerr had received a more attractive offer for Stoudemire, whether it was from Cleveland, Miami or Houston, the Suns wouldn't be in the position they are in now, wih the Spurs would probably be readying for the Lakers.

Ferry and the Cavaliers weren't killed at the time for making their deal for Jamison instead of Amare Stoudemire, but I was one of a small handful of writers (Kelly Dwyer also comes to mind), who criticized the conservativeness of the deal. Jamison clearly made the Cavaliers a better team, but only in a way that enhanced what they already had and he didn't have the potential to single-handedly win games the way Amare does.

The Impacted

Cavaliers: Jamison, the famed stretch four, is 10-for-36 from distance (27.8%) and he has a playoff PER of 15.7.

The problem with the Cavaliers is that they have one truly great player and no other real impact player that can tangibly change the game. Cleveland has tremendous depth of 'game alterers' who are marginally above average, but that is a formula for winning we have not really seen be successful deep into the playoffs. The closest resemblance to this Cavaliers team in recent history is probably the 2001 Sixers, though LeBron is clearly superior to Allen Iverson and Cleveland's supporting cast has better player-for-player talent than that Dikembe Mutombo, Aaron McKie, Eric Snow, Tyrone Hill team.

Stoudemire hasn't been the kind of unequivocally dominant player he was in the 2005 or 2007 Playoffs, but his 20.7 PER, 58.2 TS% and 20.5 points per game is the exact type of production the Cavaliers need, especially against the Celtics and potentially the Lakers. Stoudemire can't stretch opposing bigs to the perimeter the way Jamison can, but he has become a knock-down mid-range jumpshooter and I think that would have been enough to create the desired effect Cleveland was targeting.

Stoudemire is and always has been a high efficiency scorer with a career TS% over 60% and as we saw in Game 5 against Boston, the Cavaliers struggle to find easy buckets if the jumpers from Mo Williams, Anthony Parker, etc. aren't falling because it then allows the defense to collapse into the paint and prevent the LeBron fly-bys off the dribble.

Jamison has also been brutalized in the post against Kevin Garnett, where he lacks the length to play effective interior defense. Jamison was a move with getting past the Magic in mind since he is a good matchup against Rashard Lewis and though Amare isn't outstanding on that end of the floor, he is clearly better than Jamison.

There is a line of thought, however, that the Cavaliers could have traded for Amare and then he would have left in free agency to Miami or New York. With a max contract offer, not necessarily a given for him on the open market, and the opportunity to play the remainder of his career with LeBron, it is difficult to imagine Amare declining that opportunity even if he doesn't seem like a Cleveland guy.

With Jamison already signed through 2012, the Cavaliers have the security of a former All-Star guaranteed to be on the roster for LeBron's free agency. I understand the logic, though the risk of having a bloated, immovable Jamison contract without LeBron remaining was something that may have been understated.

Though unlikely, the Cavaliers could have at least offered a max contract to Amare, a legitimate top-25 player in the NBA if LeBron did leave, or they could have also attempted to broker a sign-and-trade with a team over the cap.

Suns: Since the Suns are the team that ultimately had final say on Amare, they are predictably impacted most heavily.

Amare and Jason Richardson were both available in February and both players have become indispensable during their playoff run. Richardson has been playing out of his head, with a 25.2 PER and 64.9 TS% in the playoffs.

Whether it is Robert Sarver, Kerr, Steve Nash, Grant Hill and especially Amare, regardless of what happens the rest of the way, it is difficult to envision the Suns breaking up this summer.

We have metamorphosed from labeling them as a 'closing window' team to an 'opening window' team, which is a bizarre 180 to experience in a mere matter of weeks.

If the Suns would have dealt Amare to Cleveland, they also probably would have attempted to find a home for Richardson and they would have potentially missed the playoffs altogether.

Kerr could have then been motivated to trade away Nash in the summer, impacting yet another team, possibly the Knicks for that long rumored, now cadaverous Mike D'Antoni reunion.

Knicks/Bulls/Nets: The Knicks, Bulls and Nets are all closely watching the Cavaliers playoff run because LeBron's free agency decision is largely dependent on how and when the Cavaliers are eliminated, or win the title. If the Cavaliers have a more attractive title window, which Amare would have undoubtedly provided, the odds of those three teams luring away LeBron decreases.

Furthermore, all three teams have been rumored as potential landing spots for Amare. With Amare on the Cavaliers and LeBron more likely to stay, they are steered into plan B's such as Joe Johnson and Carlos Boozer, or even waiting for Carmelo Anthony in 2011.

Heat: With Amare embedded in Cleveland or the reality of it in Phoenix, he is more challenging to pry away in free agency to join Dwyane Wade. Most people have expected Amare to end up in Miami, but that is less likely under both scenarios. The Heat are realistically left with convincing either Chris Bosh or Carlos Boozer to come save Wade from leaving.

Spurs: Gregg Popovich's team is eliminated by the Suns in four games and they are further away from legitimately contending for a title than expected. Even though the Tony Parker trade rumors are not coming from within the organization, it is now difficult to imagine Parker remaining with the club beyond the 10-11 season. If the Spurs would have advanced to the Conference Finals, they would have been more likely to envision a preservation of the status quo.

They also would have been likely to acquire Grant Hill, a player they coveted last summer.

The Aftermath

We still have a lot of playoff basketball left and free agency is still an unwritten saga.

The Cavaliers could very well beat Boston in Games 6 and 7, then get past the Magic to return to the Finals for the first time since 2007. A parade in Cleveland has not been a cancelled possibility.

The Suns could very well be swept by the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, prompting Amare to sign with the Heat or Knicks this summer, setting back the Suns for the 11-12 season.

One outcome the Cavaliers weren't considering back in February and is now far from theoretical, how about having to face Amare and the Suns in the Finals?

Note

1.) If J.J. Hickson was so important to the Cavaliers and this is their all-important title run, how can Mike Brown justify refusing to play him when he is an obvious tough cover for the Celtics? Hickson has only played 79 minutes through the first 10 games of the playoffs, where has a remarkable (small sample size) TS% of 67.1%. Hickson also had productive games in Cleveland's final two meetings of 09-10 against the Celtics.

[garyb916]

It was good until this:

"The Suns could very well be swept by the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, prompting Amare to sign with the Heat or Knicks this summer, setting back the Suns for the 11-12 season.

One outcome the Cavaliers weren't considering back in February and is now far from theoretical, how about having to face Amare and the Suns in the Finals?"

What a jerk.

[RaisingArizona]

If Cleveland loses in the playoffs and Lebron leaves them, Ferry will be fired for not pulling the trigger on that deal. For us though, it's going to turn out great. Sometimes the best deals you make, are the ones not made.

[garyb916]

If Cleveland loses in the playoffs and Lebron leaves them, Ferry will be fired for not pulling the trigger on that deal. For us though, it's going to turn out great. Sometimes the best deals you make, are the ones not made.

Well said, I love that we didn't trade him. Hell every Suns fan right now should love that.

[ls2ws6]

garyb get your own sig dude. your the second one to try to jack it.

good article

[ILOVEIT]

Warrior fan here....We could have told ya that Jamison is not close to a prime time player...He's a good roleplayer on a good team.... But ask him to do anything with pressure on him and he melts away. No handles...ZERO defense....week on the defensive glass...Stretch four? haha...he's a SF that can't dribble and shoots poorly from range....

[albasuna]

lol at ls2ws6 sig jacking.

good read is good.

[garyb916]

garyb get your own sig dude. your the second one to try to jack it.

good article

I don't see anyone else using it...

Even if there is so what?

[ma_falaa_50]

I dont like how writers wrote about stat being a mentally weak player, or he is going to jump ship, or they knopw for certain that amare is going to leave because its all bull crap! Amare is still here deal with it douche! he is not going to NY, cleveland, Chicago, or miami.

[Mr. Sun]

Amare and Jason Richardson were both available in February and both players have become indispensable during their playoff run.

Amare was available to a 1 in a million offer that realistically was never going to happen. No different than anyone else in the league. Kobe would be traded if the lakers got a 1 in a million offer.

The odds are 99.9% Amare will be a Sun next year regardless what happens in these playoffs.

[ls2ws6]

garyb get your own sig dude. your the second one to try to jack it.

good article

I don't see anyone else using it...

Even if there is so what?

lol ok maybe you couldnt see mine. it's cool whatever dude, I just throws me off when Im trying to find my own posts

maybe you should ask Kerssed for one I'm sure he'd be happy to do it for you when he has time

[PHXfan85]

NO ONE IS ALLOWED TO COPY OTHER USERS SIG'S BECAUSE WE ALL NEED TO BE UNIQUE ON THE INTERNET!!!!!

[BurningHeart]

Signatures are **** annoying anyway, can I turn off seeing them?

As for the article....the non-trade of Amare might be the most important thing to happen in the NBA this year.

[Frank Lee]

.......

The odds are 99.9% Amare will be a Sun next year regardless what happens in these playoffs.

Stat himself said 50/50%....

but you are the expert

[Mr. Sun]

.......

The odds are 99.9% Amare will be a Sun next year regardless what happens in these playoffs.

yet Stat himself said 50/50%....

but your are the expert

You are taking his remarks out of context like the media. Why he says 50-50 is because he has said in the past he doesn't know what the Suns FO wants to do. The 50-50 comes from the Suns not Amare. Kerr already said 10 days ago he will resign him. The 50-50 is really 100%.

[Jase]

If Cleveland loses in the playoffs and Lebron leaves them, Ferry will be fired for not pulling the trigger on that deal. For us though, it's going to turn out great. Sometimes the best deals you make, are the ones not made.

When > if

Somehow, I think a majority of NBA fans are happy that PHX didn't make that deal.

[Frank Lee]

You are taking his remarks out of context like the media. Why he says 50-50 is because he has said in the past he doesn't know what the Suns FO wants to do. The 50-50 comes from the Suns not Amare. Kerr already said 10 days ago he will resign him. The 50-50 is really 100%.

"Still not sure what I’m going to do this summer," Stoudemire said on Tuesday. "Still 50-50. It’s not for certain if I’m going to stay or go."

"This has been a $100 million summer for me, so I’m very proud of that," Stoudemire said.

"I’m glad that teams and organizations are taking notice of how my game has evolved," Stoudemire said.


Take these out of context, please


I cannot understand how so many of you feel there is no chance Stat leaves.... I know, I know... it never rains in Phnx

[Mr. Sun]

"This has been a $100 million summer for me, so I’m very proud of that," Stoudemire said.

Uh Frank? He said that in 2005.

[lilfishi22]

Here we go again .

I don't get how someone like you can say absolutely for sure Amare is not leaving. Even Amare hasn't made his decision yet. Just because Kerr said he wants to resign Amare doesn't mean Amare won't be looking at other options.

The 50-50 is really 100%.

Elementary mathematics would disagree.

[Mr. Sun]

Here we go again .

I don't get how someone like you can say absolutely for sure Amare is not leaving. Even Amare hasn't made his decision yet. Just because Kerr said he wants to resign Amare doesn't mean Amare won't be looking at other options.

Unlike you guys who convince yourselves with 5 year-old remarks, I stick with what he has been consistently says in the last 3 months.

I now return you back tour daily "not sure what Amare will do" delusions.