A plea to keep Masterson in the rotation

DavidMcGr · Post #1 » by **DavidMcGr** » Fri May 14, 2010 3:26 am

http://sabrtribe.blogspot.com/2010/05/keeping-justin-masterson-out-of-bullpen.html

Perhaps I'm simply surrounded by the views of a certain kinds of fans and the front office has never considered moving Masterson back to the pen, but that doesn't stop me from being scared. The front office has shown very little patience with multiple players and Masterson has, unfortunately, run into some awful luck to the start the season while other starters, namely Huff, Carmona and Talbot, have ran into some great luck. Regardless, Masterson is easily our best starter at the moment and his struggles against lefthanders are largely blown out of proportion.

Lando12 · Post #2 » by **Lando12** » Fri May 14, 2010 3:59 am

I absolutely agree with your premise, but would like to mention that Masterson's HR/FB may not be as unlucky as it looks. Masterson's BABIP is driven by a LD% of 25.5. If you knock that down to 19% and attribute the lost LD to FB (I'm stretching here, I know) then his HR/FB drops to 16.7%. It took some heavy assumptions to reduce it to a still high number, but it's something to keep in mind I guess.

Another tidbit, which is certainly hinted at by the K rate, is contact %. Masterson's is at 76.8%. Westbrook is at 82.7%. Every other starter for the Indians is above 88%. Masterson has a skill that the Indians desperately need: the ability to miss bats. For all of the screaming about soft tossing lefties, I'm amazed that more people do not appreciate what Masterson brings to the table.

DavidMcGr · Post #3 » by **DavidMcGr** » Fri May 14, 2010 4:23 am

That transformation doesn't really hold. If you knock down his LDs to FBs then his those flyballs are still have a chance at leaving the yard. The facts remain that 22% of his flyballs have gone for homeruns and that number simply will not hold up. If you're looking to adjust to some expected model of allowed homeruns then the number of homeruns may remain the same but the decrease in LDs will have a huge impact on his BABIP (I'll admit there may be some colinearity between the two which may be what you're getting at). This is why I revert to xFIP. It adjusts for both and it shows that Masterson has been great. I don't expect a ~3 ERA Masterson going forward, but I would love to have an high strike out upside starter with an ERA circa 4.00.

And yeah, Indians fan defy logic on a daily basis.

Lando12 · Post #4 » by **Lando12** » Fri May 14, 2010 4:40 am

I guess what I'm saying is that when his LD% comes down, I fully expect is FB% to go up. In a sense, his high LD% is helping keep down his xFIP. It isn't really a correction of any kind, just a bit of an aside. I don't think his low FB% will hold up. It will still remain low, just not 19% low.

I suppose it only serves to demonstrate how quirky his balls in play have been.

DavidMcGr · Post #5 » by **DavidMcGr** » Fri May 14, 2010 4:47 am

I see what you're saying now (I think your dropping LD rate to FB rate was a bit misleading) and yeah, you're probably right, but, just to be clear, it isn't like I'm expecting Cy Young Masterson out there. I'm high on the guy but see him as a number 3 starter on most teams right now. I'd rate his true talent ERA probably in the 4.00-4.25 range, but with room to grow.

FordPrefect · Post #6 » by **FordPrefect** » Fri May 14, 2010 5:58 am

What's amazing to me on Masterson and Marte and LaPorta is how quickly people want to embrace EXACTLY the problems of the past two or three years just because they're frustrated with a losing streak in May. It's staggering.

Lando12 · Post #7 » by **Lando12** » Sat May 15, 2010 5:11 am

For giggles, I poked around Masterson's career splits. As a starter (before his last start), he has a career 4.49 ERA and a BABIP of .309. I'm sure that means his current numbers are totally sustainable because of the funky arm angle.

We should totally turn him into Steve Reed. That way, we get rid of the bat missing menace and get to complain that Shapiro traded Victor for a ROOGY. Two birds, one stone.

Lando12 · Post #8 » by **Lando12** » Tue May 25, 2010 9:51 pm

It is tough to tell what the organization actually thinks, but it sure feels like the buzzards are circling Masterson. At this point I would rather he go to Columbus than the bullpen. I'm not particularly fond of either option, but I really don't want to see Masterson get shoehorned into the pen. I don't think they would ever be able to get him back into the rotation.