Series Thread: Rangers vs. Blue Jays | May 14-16

[Avenger]

Where's Snider? Injured? I just realized he had a 1.115 OPS in May up to this point, that's nuts

strained wrist, day to day

[Schad]

The fact is, and it backs up the point some of us are making, this cannot be sustained. We have three veterans taken off the scrap heap - four if you include Lewis - that are power hitting well above their pay grade.

Yeah, and it's hard to realize how far above their pay grade they're hitting until you extrapolate it out to a full season. We're 39 games in; if Buck/Bautista/Gonzalez continue to receive the same number of plate appearances per game, their seasonal numbers would look like this:


Buck: 428 ABs, .276/.325/.610 (.935 OPS), 33 HRs, 96 RBI.

Bautista: 586 ABs, .241/.347/.532 (.879 OPS), 42 HRs, 120 RBI.

Gonzalez: 648 ABs, .256/.293/.551 (.844 OPS), 42 HRs, 120 RBI.

[dagger]

Well it's more fun extrapolating their power than extrapolating Morrow's walks or Romero's wild pitches over 162 games.

[Raider917]

The fact is, and it backs up the point some of us are making, this cannot be sustained. We have three veterans taken off the scrap heap - four if you include Lewis - that are power hitting well above their pay grade.

but is there a way to know from previous instances of this just how much "above/below/norm" average numbers do these type of overacheiving players wind up with after starts like this.

they are sure to start struggling (compared to now) but do they always fade to the point that only their average seasons are met or do they usually have better than average seasons if they are still like this in may?

[Schad]

but is there a way to know from previous instances of this just how much "above/below/norm" average numbers do these type of overacheiving players wind up with after starts like this.

they are sure to start struggling (compared to now) but do they always fade to the point that only their average seasons are met or do they usually have better than average seasons if they are still like this in may?

Regressing to the norm, the updated ZIPS had their numbers looking like this (before today):

Buck: 353 ABs, .244/.304/.507 (.811 OPS), 22 HRs, 60 RBI.

Bautista: 476 ABs, .231/.332/.439 (.771 OPS), 22 HRs, 81 RBI.

Gonzalez: 470 ABs, .243/.284/.453 (.737 OPS), 21 HRs, 67 RBI.


Still career-bests for Buck and Bautista, but at this point they would either need to get injured or decide to go to the plate without a bat to avoid setting personal bests.

[Raider917]

but is there a way to know from previous instances of this just how much "above/below/norm" average numbers do these type of overacheiving players wind up with after starts like this.

they are sure to start struggling (compared to now) but do they always fade to the point that only their average seasons are met or do they usually have better than average seasons if they are still like this in may?

Regressing to the norm, the updated ZIPS had their numbers looking like this (before today):

Buck: 353 ABs, .244/.304/.507 (.811 OPS), 22 HRs, 60 RBI.

Bautista: 476 ABs, .231/.332/.439 (.771 OPS), 22 HRs, 81 RBI.

Gonzalez: 470 ABs, .243/.284/.453 (.737 OPS), 21 HRs, 67 RBI.


Still career-bests for Buck and Bautista, but at this point they would either need to get injured or decide to go to the plate without a bat to avoid setting personal bests.

with hill and lind improving along with this, it should make for a better than anticipated season? i am happy with a .500 season.

[Forza Barca]

Great job by the boys. I'm really impressed, and with this team, a 23-16 record is not too shabby ...

I hope we keep it up vs. the Twinkies.

[Alfred]

but is there a way to know from previous instances of this just how much "above/below/norm" average numbers do these type of overacheiving players wind up with after starts like this.

they are sure to start struggling (compared to now) but do they always fade to the point that only their average seasons are met or do they usually have better than average seasons if they are still like this in may?

Regressing to the norm, the updated ZIPS had their numbers looking like this (before today):

Buck: 353 ABs, .244/.304/.507 (.811 OPS), 22 HRs, 60 RBI.

Bautista: 476 ABs, .231/.332/.439 (.771 OPS), 22 HRs, 81 RBI.

Gonzalez: 470 ABs, .243/.284/.453 (.737 OPS), 21 HRs, 67 RBI.


Still career-bests for Buck and Bautista, but at this point they would either need to get injured or decide to go to the plate without a bat to avoid setting personal bests.

Bautista isn't so far above his career averages that it can't be sustained. Buck and Gonzalez are obviously playing far above their heads.

I think it's getting to the point where I think that Bautista will be able to be flipped for something nice at some point this season.

EDIT: Whoa, he's hitting .852 OPS now. That is significantly better than he usually hits.

[Macho]

Over 25,000 people at the game today the city is starting to believe

[Schad]

I think it's getting to the point where I think that Bautista will be able to be flipped for something nice at some point this season.

EDIT: Whoa, he's hitting .852 OPS now. That is significantly better than he usually hits.

.879 after tonight.

And I think that he can be flipped, but not for much value; teams aren't going to mistake this for his new normal, and he's likely to going to get himself a bigger-than-deserved number in arbitration.

He could have some value for a team like Anaheim, as they are currently suffering through Brandon Wood (he's amazing; .286/.354/.541 in the minors, .185/.210/.288 in the majors)...problem being that they'd work under the assumption that he'd be getting non-tendered after the season, so anything more than a near-washout is pretty unlikely.

[SargentBargs101]

bluejays love facing the rangers...

[Alfred]

I think it's getting to the point where I think that Bautista will be able to be flipped for something nice at some point this season.

EDIT: Whoa, he's hitting .852 OPS now. That is significantly better than he usually hits.

.879 after tonight.

And I think that he can be flipped, but not for much value; teams aren't going to mistake this for his new normal, and he's likely to going to get himself a bigger-than-deserved number in arbitration.

He could have some value for a team like Anaheim, as they are currently suffering through Brandon Wood (he's amazing; .286/.354/.541 in the minors, .185/.210/.288 in the majors)...problem being that they'd work under the assumption that he'd be getting non-tendered after the season, so anything more than a near-washout is pretty unlikely.

The thing is is that he actually has pretty decent hitting numbers for his career too. Around .750 OPS and .400+ SLG for the past couple of years at the plate. Combine that with the fact that he is a utility player on the field, and you're looking at a good player.

And don't underestimate the "One Good Year" phenomenon, where general managers don't do their homework and buy at the peak price rather than the correct price.

[Schad]

If he has 16 HRs and an average above .260 (which would be unusually high for him) by mid-July, someone might think that he can be their Garrett Jones and trade a low top-20 prospect for him. His average really matters not with a .350 OBP and almost 200 points iso power, but it'll limit his value nonetheless, as will his age and arbitration status.

[s e n s i]

What I tell you jokers? This sweep is clearly a result of the sensi effect.

[Geddy]

What I tell you jokers? This sweep is clearly a result of the sensi effect.

you went to that 'all you can eat' game last season and then things fell apart for the Jays.

I hope you're not planning on going this season

[s e n s i]

Bahahaha ****, you're right man, totally forgot about that. And I'll pass for sure on the AYCE this year. It's like paying for flaming diarrhea, except you have to unload in the overused, rarely sanitary toilets of the dome rather than at home.

[Lateral Quicks]

What a ridiculous win. Somehow they scored 5 runs on 3 hits, and the only HR was a solo shot. Talk about taking advantage of your opportunities.

I think the pitching can continue at this level. And perhaps the hitting can too. Lind, Hill, and Overbay are still hitting well below their career averages. If (when?) they return to form, it should offset Gonzalez, Bautista and Buck falling back to earth again (if they do!).

Still, we have to go through the meat-grinder that is the AL east. Need a .424 winning percentage the rest of the way for 75 wins to prove the prognosticators wrong. But at this point, I have my hopes up for a .500 or better season. Great time to be a Jays' fan!