Brand vs Al in a #2 Trade

[shrink]

I've heard on a few boards that MIN should consider including a Brand-for-Jefferson (plus stuff!) deal for the #2, because it only costs us $3 mil more each year in salary, and only for three years. I know - that doesn't sound so bad. But I think people will get a better feel if they try to compare estimated production each year compared to each player's guaranteed contract.

2009-10 Elton Brand (age 31) $15 mil ... 13 PPG, 6 RPG
2010-11 Elton Brand (age 32) $16 mil ... ??? PPG, ??? RPG
2011-12 Elton Brand (age 33) $17 mil ... ??? PPG, ??? RPG
2012-13 Elton Brand (age 34) $18 mil ... ??? PPG, ??? RPG

2009-10 Al Jefferson (age 25) $12 mil ... 17 PPG, 9 RPG
2010-11 Al Jefferson (age 26) $13 mil ... ??? PPG, ??? RPG
2011-12 Al Jefferson (age 27) $14 mil ... ??? PPG, ??? RPG
2012-13 Al Jefferson (age 28) $15 mil ... ??? PPG, ??? RPG

Now I think that we can all agree that because of age, Brand's numbers are likely to stay the same or go down. He'll hopefully glide into an Antonio McDyess role of "useful vet off the bench." Jefferson put up this year's production when he wasn't 100%, and he's likely to go up.

Now let's say that in the market, you can get a no-upside replacement for Brand who puts up 13/6 for about $5-6 mil. A Jefferson, with upside is probably worth his contract (as DET demonstrates with their trade offers). Let's say that Al simply maintains as a slightly net-positive player. Brand's price goes up while his production declines.

2009-10 Brand (-$9 mil) Jefferson (-$3)

2010-11 Brand (-$11 mil) Jefferson (+$1)
2011-12 Brand (-$13 mil) Jefferson (+$1)
2012-13 Brand (-$14 mil) Jefferson (+$1)

The difference here is over $40 mil worth of production/replacement value.

This is huge, and demonstrates the lost opportunity costs both in trade, and by losing a giant chunk of your team's cap space in less production to compete.

[Devilzsidewalk]

Brand looks so horrible that I really have a problem taking him back in a trade under pretty much any circumstances. Taking Brand back is going to cause at least as many problems as Turner would solve

[moss_is_1]

I wonder if Brand was just a really bad fit with sixers, and was still recovering from his injury was a reason why he was so awful...How awesome would it be if we shipped out Jefferson and stuff for Brand and Turner and then Brand went on to be the old Brand....

[revprodeji]

I would do it if it is just Brand+2nd for Jefferson (nothing else added. No picks or players with value--maybe Gomes?)

why?

Brand off the bench would be a decent weapon. He is not a starter, but why not have him as the back-up behind Cousins and Darko?

Also, he was in the worst fit offense for him. The Princeton. Put him in this offense and he does better and against second unit players he makes an impact.

I think the value of Evan Turner is much more then what we could get for Al Jefferson. In moving Jefferson we want to bring in a SF. In this case the SF is not making all the bank, but the other player is. I am cool with that because I believe in Evan Turner for this team.

But we cannot include anything else of value.

[slinky]

First to be fair...I would not do this deal. I love Turner, and maybe I am just an Al Jeff homer, but I just don't think this deal is worth taking back Brand.

Now for argument sake....if this deal went down, and I knew I had to pay Brand for the next several years, I would think a KLove trade would have to happen. In this scenario, I wouldn't mind trading Love and signing Pekovic. I like the rotation of:

Darko/Pekovic
Cousins/Brand

Its not ideal, (especially if they want to run) but in terms of maximizing the value on the team...What could we get for Love? I am guessing Love/Gomes would get us Prince/#7/+ What else?

Again this is all under the assumption that we are gonna pay Brand, and he might as well play some minutes and get some use out of him.

[BrooklynBulls]

As a small market team, you cannot afford to have Elton Brand as a bench player. That's poison.

[shangrila]

I'd at least put in the 16 and 23. You can talk about value and what not all you like, but there is no chance the Sixers just give up the 2nd pick in...not even a salary dump. Ha, now that I think about it that deal does nothing for them.

[cpfsf]

I tried to Ship Brand and fillers (maybe Pekovic or a pick) for Turkoglu, Evans, and Bosh, but I give up.

[skorff26]

Brand + #2 + Green for Al + #16 + Pekovic + Gomes + Ellington

Next Year
Flynn/Sessions
Turner/Green
Brewer/#23
Love/Brand
Darko/Brand/Hollins

[shangrila]

Again, what's it do for Philadelphia? Getting rid of Brand is only good if they can dump his salary, which doesn't really happen here. And trading that 2nd pick in a money deal would lose them a LOT of fans.

[collin_k41]

Again, what's it do for Philadelphia? Getting rid of Brand is only good if they can dump his salary, which doesn't really happen here. And trading that 2nd pick in a money deal would lose them a LOT of fans.

The more I think about that statement the more it has me thinking we don't have any chance at the number 2 pick. The Sixers and their fans have already bought into the Turner hype. They're not going to make a trade that could help their team in terms of players and/or cap room for more players because that would cause a ton of Philly fans to abandon ship. It's still early, and stuff could still go down at the workouts, but I don't expect us to trade up in this draft. I think we'll either trade down a little bit for a wing or we'll just take Cousins and be guaranteed a trade of Love and/or Al.

[karch34]

Again, what's it do for Philadelphia? Getting rid of Brand is only good if they can dump his salary, which doesn't really happen here. And trading that 2nd pick in a money deal would lose them a LOT of fans.

It's not a salary dump, but it is replacing that salary with production more in line with the salary. If the contract is unmoveable without significant sweetner, I can see the rationale. That being said Philly would still need to get something back in a Brand and #2 deal that just Jefferson. They do the #4 included in a heartbeat. I'm not sure if they do it for the #16.

[kobyz]

i will do this: Love and #4 for Brand and #2

[Klomp]

I've heard on a few boards that MIN should consider including a Brand-for-Jefferson (plus stuff!) deal for the #2, because it only costs us $3 mil more each year in salary, and only for three years. I know - that doesn't sound so bad. But I think people will get a better feel if they try to compare estimated production each year compared to each player's guaranteed contract.

2009-10 Elton Brand (age 31) $15 mil ... 13 PPG, 6 RPG
2010-11 Elton Brand (age 32) $16 mil ... ??? PPG, ??? RPG
2011-12 Elton Brand (age 33) $17 mil ... ??? PPG, ??? RPG
2012-13 Elton Brand (age 34) $18 mil ... ??? PPG, ??? RPG

2009-10 Al Jefferson (age 25) $12 mil ... 17 PPG, 9 RPG
2010-11 Al Jefferson (age 26) $13 mil ... ??? PPG, ??? RPG
2011-12 Al Jefferson (age 27) $14 mil ... ??? PPG, ??? RPG
2012-13 Al Jefferson (age 28) $15 mil ... ??? PPG, ??? RPG

Now I think that we can all agree that because of age, Brand's numbers are likely to stay the same or go down. He'll hopefully glide into an Antonio McDyess role of "useful vet off the bench." Jefferson put up this year's production when he wasn't 100%, and he's likely to go up.

Now let's say that in the market, you can get a no-upside replacement for Brand who puts up 13/6 for about $5-6 mil. A Jefferson, with upside is probably worth his contract (as DET demonstrates with their trade offers). Let's say that Al simply maintains as a slightly net-positive player. Brand's price goes up while his production declines.

2009-10 Brand (-$9 mil) Jefferson (-$3)

2010-11 Brand (-$11 mil) Jefferson (+$1)
2011-12 Brand (-$13 mil) Jefferson (+$1)
2012-13 Brand (-$14 mil) Jefferson (+$1)

The difference here is over $40 mil worth of production/replacement value.

This is huge, and demonstrates the lost opportunity costs both in trade, and by losing a giant chunk of your team's cap space in less production to compete.

I've thought about this a while.....I would not be opposed to the deal. If we could acquire the #2 without giving up the number 4, I think we should take that opportunity and run with it. I think one positive Brand could bring is a positive influence on Love, and someone who could teach Kevin how to play in the post as an undersized big.

Sessions / Flynn
Brewer / Ellington
Turner / 16 or 23
Love / Brand
Milicic / Cousins

[Calinks]

I say no to this. We are sacrificing way too much on a prayer. Even if this deal goes down there is no guarantee Turner will be awesome. What if he turns out to be Darius Miles or something? We would be effed over big time. Not only that but Philly would have lots of cap space and a 22 and 12 player playing for damn near pennies. They would be laughing to the bank.

[jscott]

i will do this: Love and #4 for Brand and #2

I won't.

We'd have too much locked up in big contracts and won't be able to re-sign Darko or bring over Pekovic. We'd lose quite a bit in that deal.

[sisibilio]

As a small market team, you cannot afford to have Elton Brand as a bench player. That's poison.

You can if all your core (Rubio, Turner, Love, Brewer...) is in rookie contracts.

i will do this: Love and #4 for Brand and #2

I won't.

We'd have too much locked up in big contracts and won't be able to re-sign Darko or bring over Pekovic. We'd lose quite a bit in that deal.

You have capspace enough to do it, resign darko and bring Pekovic, even if Philly were willing to get the 16th instead of the 4th.

[jscott]

As a small market team, you cannot afford to have Elton Brand as a bench player. That's poison.

You can if all your core (Rubio, Turner, Love, Brewer...) is in rookie contracts.

i will do this: Love and #4 for Brand and #2

I won't.

We'd have too much locked up in big contracts and won't be able to re-sign Darko or bring over Pekovic. We'd lose quite a bit in that deal.

You have capspace enough to do it, resign darko and bring Pekovic, even if Philly were willing to get the 16th instead of the 4th.

How do you figure?

Brand makes something like 12 mil more than Love. Our cap is closer to 15.

Also Love + 4 is way too much for Brands contract and 2. You'd need to add or lower that asking price.

[sisibilio]

How do you figure?

Brand makes something like 12 mil more than Love. Our cap is closer to 15.

Also Love + 4 is way too much for Brands contract and 2. You'd need to add or lower that asking price.

Somehow i read Al + #4 instead of love + #4.

[jscott]

Thats fair.

I still don't see Turner worth the jump from Cousins if the cost is downgrading to that contract value from Al or Love's.