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Contrarian Assesment of John Wall

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Consiglieri81
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Re: Contrarian Assesment of John Wall 

Post#161 » by Consiglieri81 » Sat May 22, 2010 12:00 am

verbal8 wrote:
pancakes3 wrote:CCJ, i agree.
if we can flip Wall for turner + lopez, i'd do it readily

That is the only trade down option I can see as being realistic and attractive. However I think that is more an "instant rebuild" move than what Leonsis seems to be thinking.


All the little leaks and drips of info I've uncovered the last few days seem to suggest that we are absolutely staying at #1. That we are very interested in acquiring another lottery pick, and that Leonsis has given the green light to buying however many draft picks Grunfeld would like to buy. Leonsis appears ready and willing to pay whatever freight necessary to load up a team w/few contracts and prospects (at least as of monday) with as much young talent as possible and will pay whatever it takes. Very exciting, I'd love to see us draft Wall, trade back into the lottery, use our #30 and #35 overall, and acquire another 2-3 picks. Crazy to realize that Rajon Rondo of all people, was freaking sold, for CASH! Christ. I'd love to be on the positive end of a deal like that. Just remember that the bulk of guys drafted 30-60 are absolute crap, and that the majority of the guys taken 15-30 are irrelevant throughout their careers or at best, depth, but hell, if all it costs is money, more power to Leonsis and Grunfeld, for loading up on as many of these prospects as possible.

You've hit on a lot of guys over the years CCJ, I just happen to think that the downside of Cousins is simply too high, and it is worth noting that when you offer a contrarian take, it would be cool to more heavily address the bust factor with the kid. There is no doubting he could be a superstar, the problem, i think everyone has with him, is that he could just as easily blow himself right out of the league due to the attitude concerns. We don't know if they're overblown or not, but when there's smoke, there is usually fire, and this doesnt strike me as similar to the "Sapp's a pothead, Marino's a cokehead" rumors that caused many a moronic team (including ours in one instance) to pass on the two of them. There is plenty of evidence that Cousins is a bit of an unstable, immature guy. Will he grow wiser with age, turning that mean, cranky streak into a positive thing? I tend to think that's unlikley. I think he can be a superstar, well, maybe not a superstar, but definitely an all star. But I think there's at least a 20-25% chance that his temperment and mentality render him a flat out bust, and a 20-25% that he's such a headcase that he ends up playing with 5-8 teams, never sticking with any for long cause none can stand him. Maybe its not fair to argue that, but the evidence suggest both of those scenario's are highly possible, if not quite probable.

Wall? We already know, at worst, he's probably gonna be a borderline all star guard. Mentality? That's one of the other good things. Whispers three years ago that he needed to grow up, that he was a bit of a show boat, me guy, not a great teammate necessary, definitely not a leader. Since then all evidence suggests that he worked on those issues and was a fantastic teammate at Kentucky, as a Freshmen with the world at his feet no less, still was a great teammate, and not a monster ego guy. So there's evidence that he addresses character concerns with genuine work and effort and humility.

Even better. He's heard the talk about his jump shot, long range shooting, and other issues. What has he been doing? Being a gym rat.

The evidence on Wall is that he already has superstar athleticism, and the instinctive talent that can't be taught. The things that can be taught? He's working on, to improve himself. The other issues he's had? Evidence suggests that instead of being arrogant, self-important and refusing to grow up, he actually worked to address those (unlike the rumors with Cousins). He has what can't be taught, he's shown he's teachable, and he's a hard worker and a team guy AND he's an alien in terms of athleticism. What's not to love.

Even better? It's becoming a point guard's league, and we now have a genuine passing, playmaking, and potentially scoring point guard in Wall at our fingertips. Lastly, we actually already have size, and athleticism at the 4 and 5 slots. We don't have a playmaking point guard (unless we were to resign Livingstone and he's always sounded lukewarm, big mistake by management in not trying to lock him up after the first 10 day contract expired). Wall makes sense, there are few knocks on him to speak of, other than shooting, which is something he's already working on, rather than being satisfied with. Cousins? There are a lot more concerns.

The weird tragedy here is if we had the 2 slot, it would be much easier. Evan Turner, period. Addresses a need, and invests into the lineup a genuine leader w/a peerless work ethic. I'd never take Cousins over Turner. NEVER.

I understand the allure of Cousins over Wall though, as both are gamble's in their own way, in a way that Turner isn't. You get a lower ceiling with Turner but far more certainty, but in the end, at 1, it's got to be Wall. I can see us kicking ourselves 2-3 years later thinking we could have gotten a truly great player, but instead got a very good one, but I'll take that risk for the boom value of Wall, over the bust possibilities of Cousins. But I respect your opinion CCJ. It's very possible Cousins blows up as big as your predicting, I just think the risk, in that risk/reward pick is far too high. I would, however, seriously offer a trade up package if we slipped past #4, and it might be possible.
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Re: Contrarian Assesment of John Wall 

Post#162 » by WizarDynasty » Sat May 22, 2010 12:50 am

Cousins at 292. He's going to have a lot of problems running up and down the court...and serious issue with coaches because they are going to want him to sprint..and with all that weight...he is going to hate being called lazy. I don't like cousins. Being picked to high he's good for situational half court but if u want to run cousins is going to go over that three hundred mark really easy and half ass over 82 games. If he was in 270 range..but he isn't the answer for the wizards. If we want just pure low post offense with a bigman that Is going to start struggling sprinting back on defense after the 4th missed shot by the opposing team then we get eddy curry.
Problem with cousins is his weight is going to keep him from getting back quickly on defense and he is going to be in a bad mood cuz the coach is going to push him and blame him for not getting back on time. After half a season..all his personality quirks due to him being to heavy to get back on fast breaks will surface. Cousins coming off the bench is fine. Wall is definitely our pick. Now what to do after wall. Long defensive small forward 9'0 standing reach that can stroke the three with quick feet.
I saw we target outlaw at an economical contract..I think his feet aren't that quick but he's better perimeter defender--has a way better standing reach than thornton or miller and can stroke the three. I don't know about his injury history though and he isn't a good passer doesn't have lower rebounding strength.
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Re: Contrarian Assesment of John Wall 

Post#163 » by WizarDynasty » Sat May 22, 2010 1:12 am

Kanyewest wrote:
WizarDynasty wrote:Gil is a huge liability in the post guarding shooting guards both and him and wall are shorter than 6'3 without shoes. Gil as sixth man...maybe but i don't see us winning a championship if gil is guarding a top tier shooting guard in the conference finals unless he's got all first team defense small forward with length that can take on the toughest assignments.


I suspect Wall will take on the bigger shooting guards. His wingspan is at six foot nine which is bigger than Evan Turner's wingspan which is six foot eight. I agree that the Wizards will struggle defensively because Gilbert is a below average defender. Maybe Gilbert can save some energy if John Wall creates the offense.

Gil has a 6'9 wingspan too which is why gil is decent challenging shot on the perimter. Gil standing reach is only 8'3 while wall standing reach is 8'5. So yes wall is longer in the post than gil. Wall is best serve guarding really quick point guards though so I would want gil on shooting guards aince gil isn't lightening fast. Ut strongly built body. Gil poor standing reach of 8'3 is why it easy to shoot over him in the post. Having a small forward with a 9'0 standing reach would greatly help gil out because we would have a perimter defender to guard the teams most ahtletically gifted scorer. Small forwards and shooting guards are usually the go to perimeter players. Shootin guards normally have a 8'8 or greater standing reach. Which is 5 inches longer than gil which is why gil is ineffective guarding in the post. Gil can usually run and jump towards a three point shot b ut u can't run and jump using your wing span in the post. Wall isn't much better at 8'5. What we need I'd small forward in the aminu and jeffries standing reach of 9'0. That is lockdown length for small forward and almost no shooting guard can get an easy shot over a 9'0 standing reach. Extremely easy to shoot over 8'3 which is what gil has guarding shooting guard in the post. So again

6'9 wingspan is great offensively because he can extend the ball far from his body. 6'9 is great gaurding out on perimter because u can lunge at a shooter and your oong arms can get into his face. If u are getting posted up u can't extend your arms in front of u only straight above your head...standing reach. If u dangled your arms in front of your body in the post u get called for the foul. Only way gil can challenge a shot in the post with his 8'3 standing reach is if he leaves his feet. We all know once u leave your feet in the post..u are toast. So u need a perimter efender that is effective challenging a sg like a kobe or paul pierce without having to leave his feet but also has quick enough feet to stay with his man on the drive from the perimter. Thornton standing reach is far from 9'0 of aminu or ak47...I bever could find millers standing reach. I know howards wasn't that bad...but he was closer to a sg than to a small forward.
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Re: Contrarian Assesment of John Wall 

Post#164 » by crackhed » Sat May 22, 2010 1:47 am

love the kid already. he's talking about defense
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Re: Contrarian Assesment of John Wall 

Post#165 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Sat May 22, 2010 2:05 am

Kanyewest wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:Carlos Boozer dropped big time in the draft due to (might have been rumors) a weak bench press, along with him supposedly being around 270-280 lbs.

Just like with Cousins, folks just completely discounted the guys' actual performance on the basketball court and went on "combine-like" reps that have nothing to do with basketball. Cousins, as Boozer was coming out of college, is IMO all that much more impressive if he's not even hitting weights, yet.

Back then my point about Boozer was look at the points-per-shot, look at the guy's width and liken him to Barkley, and don't discount long arms and decent hops.

Cousins is wider and longer if he doesn't have the bounce Boozer had. I could care less if he skips the workouts. There are strong guys like Olowokandi that can't play. Haislip can bench over 400 and can run like a deer but he can't play. Cousins can play.


While Boozer turned out to be a steal in the draft where he was taken, a lot more people would have questioned the pick if he was taken #1 over Yao Ming and Amare Stoudemirel although he was certainly better than guys like Wilcox and Jeffries. I think Cousins and Boozers are in different boats largely due to perception. Cousins is seen to have a lot more potential since he's a freshman whereas Boozer went to college all four years. Traditionally players from Duke have not translated well into the NBA whereas Cousins doesn't have to fight that perception.

Nonetheless, I'm also confused why Boozer slipped so much on draft day. I could have told you that he was better than Jared Jeffries.


Ironically, right before that draft Indiana beat Duke en route to the Hoosiers losing to the Terps for the NCAA title. I watched Jeffries thorougly outplay Boozer in that one game.

That's why I don't put credence in one game or in combine head-to-head workouts. Guys like Kwame or Jared Jeffries might be long and lean and they might beast some other player once. Boozer kicked butt all year prior to that one NCAA game where Duke lost.

(Wall didn't impress me in the Final Four against W. VA, but I really go by his overall stats for any minor criticisms of his game.)

Kanye, anybody should have known Boozer was way better than Jeffries.
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Re: Contrarian Assesment of John Wall 

Post#166 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Sat May 22, 2010 2:28 am

Consiglieri81 wrote:All the little leaks and drips of info I've uncovered the last few days seem to suggest that we are absolutely staying at #1. That we are very interested in acquiring another lottery pick, and that Leonsis has given the green light to buying however many draft picks Grunfeld would like to buy. Leonsis appears ready and willing to pay whatever freight necessary to load up a team w/few contracts and prospects (at least as of monday) with as much young talent as possible and will pay whatever it takes. Very exciting, I'd love to see us draft Wall, trade back into the lottery, use our #30 and #35 overall, and acquire another 2-3 picks. Crazy to realize that Rajon Rondo of all people, was freaking sold, for CASH! Christ. I'd love to be on the positive end of a deal like that. Just remember that the bulk of guys drafted 30-60 are absolute crap, and that the majority of the guys taken 15-30 are irrelevant throughout their careers or at best, depth, but hell, if all it costs is money, more power to Leonsis and Grunfeld, for loading up on as many of these prospects as possible.

You've hit on a lot of guys over the years CCJ, I just happen to think that the downside of Cousins is simply too high, and it is worth noting that when you offer a contrarian take, it would be cool to more heavily address the bust factor with the kid. There is no doubting he could be a superstar, the problem, i think everyone has with him, is that he could just as easily blow himself right out of the league due to the attitude concerns. We don't know if they're overblown or not, but when there's smoke, there is usually fire, and this doesnt strike me as similar to the "Sapp's a pothead, Marino's a cokehead" rumors that caused many a moronic team (including ours in one instance) to pass on the two of them. There is plenty of evidence that Cousins is a bit of an unstable, immature guy. Will he grow wiser with age, turning that mean, cranky streak into a positive thing? I tend to think that's unlikley. I think he can be a superstar, well, maybe not a superstar, but definitely an all star. But I think there's at least a 20-25% chance that his temperment and mentality render him a flat out bust, and a 20-25% that he's such a headcase that he ends up playing with 5-8 teams, never sticking with any for long cause none can stand him. Maybe its not fair to argue that, but the evidence suggest both of those scenario's are highly possible, if not quite probable.

Wall? We already know, at worst, he's probably gonna be a borderline all star guard. Mentality? That's one of the other good things. Whispers three years ago that he needed to grow up, that he was a bit of a show boat, me guy, not a great teammate necessary, definitely not a leader. Since then all evidence suggests that he worked on those issues and was a fantastic teammate at Kentucky, as a Freshmen with the world at his feet no less, still was a great teammate, and not a monster ego guy. So there's evidence that he addresses character concerns with genuine work and effort and humility.

Even better. He's heard the talk about his jump shot, long range shooting, and other issues. What has he been doing? Being a gym rat.

The evidence on Wall is that he already has superstar athleticism, and the instinctive talent that can't be taught. The things that can be taught? He's working on, to improve himself. The other issues he's had? Evidence suggests that instead of being arrogant, self-important and refusing to grow up, he actually worked to address those (unlike the rumors with Cousins). He has what can't be taught, he's shown he's teachable, and he's a hard worker and a team guy AND he's an alien in terms of athleticism. What's not to love.

Even better? It's becoming a point guard's league, and we now have a genuine passing, playmaking, and potentially scoring point guard in Wall at our fingertips. Lastly, we actually already have size, and athleticism at the 4 and 5 slots. We don't have a playmaking point guard (unless we were to resign Livingstone and he's always sounded lukewarm, big mistake by management in not trying to lock him up after the first 10 day contract expired). Wall makes sense, there are few knocks on him to speak of, other than shooting, which is something he's already working on, rather than being satisfied with. Cousins? There are a lot more concerns.

The weird tragedy here is if we had the 2 slot, it would be much easier. Evan Turner, period. Addresses a need, and invests into the lineup a genuine leader w/a peerless work ethic. I'd never take Cousins over Turner. NEVER.

I understand the allure of Cousins over Wall though, as both are gamble's in their own way, in a way that Turner isn't. You get a lower ceiling with Turner but far more certainty, but in the end, at 1, it's got to be Wall. I can see us kicking ourselves 2-3 years later thinking we could have gotten a truly great player, but instead got a very good one, but I'll take that risk for the boom value of Wall, over the bust possibilities of Cousins. But I respect your opinion CCJ. It's very possible Cousins blows up as big as your predicting, I just think the risk, in that risk/reward pick is far too high. I would, however, seriously offer a trade up package if we slipped past #4, and it might be possible.


Really well-thought post, Consiglieri. You're like the Godfather to me. Can't argue anything you've said.

Honestly, I was hoping for #2. Turner at 2 is a no-brainer. For some reason, I feel a lot better about Turner than Wall, even though history says take Dwight Howard over Okafor, take Garnett over Rasheed, take prodigious athleticism with talent over grinder, any day. But Turner offers me no red flags at all and I wouldnt' complain at all if he's selected over Cousins even if I think Cousins is better.

I would NEVER take Cousins first. I would trade Wall for Cousins, another player, and another first. Said it pages ago. We shall see if that call blows up in my face.

As far as Cousins' negatives, Consiglieri; there have been players like Marvin Barnes, Chris Washburn, Clifford Rozier who didn't pan out because they were either on drugs, mentally ill, or criminally inclined; or all of the above. Historically, I read about this guy: Reggie Harding who didn't make it because of some SERIOUS off court problems.

As far as his weight, Cousins looks like he could be cousin to (pun intended) Eddy Curry and Mike Sweetney and James Lang. Oh, and DeJuan Blair .... So, Consiglieri, you and everybody else pointing at the numerous red flags (coaches' nightmare/elbows opponents/punches fans) could be right. Most think you are by a wide margin on the side of right.

Personally, I have seen Karl Malone knock David Robinson unconscious with an elbow. He bloodied Isaih Thomas. Put a huge knot on Pippen's head both by well-placed IMO intentionall elbows. I've seen Malone karate kick players while shooting his pull-up jump shot. And Malone's the kind of guy who told Kobe's wife he likes to hunt Mexican girls. Malone played almost 20 years. Nobody said you had to be nice in the NBA.

Charles Barkley was a real belligerent player. Woofed at and shoved a lot of guys. Pitched guys through windows. He spit on a little girl in the stands once (accidentally). He challenged many guys to fights. He got arrested not too long ago for DUI (and was trying to buy sex like our guy Andray). Barkley was fat in the eyes of Bob Knight, who cut him from the 1984 Olympic Squad. Red flags ...

Sorry for the rant, but I'm just saying I think Cousins will turn out to not be all that crazy in the long run. Nothing short of a damning pyschiatric evaluation and some family history that shows he couldn't make it, or some serious drug/criminal activity would dissuade me from thinking Cousins won't be great. (For at least the first 2-3 years in the league, any way.)
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Re: Contrarian Assesment of John Wall 

Post#167 » by Kanyewest » Sat May 22, 2010 4:24 am

pancakes3 wrote:^ i don't know about the dookie myth that their players don't translate well. Grant Hill, Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, and Battier all had success in the years immediately leading up to boozer getting drafted. I think trajan langdon was the only blue devil who didn't live up to expectations in the late 90's-early 2000's.

it's only as of late with the shelden williams's, and JJ Reddicks that the duke dissonance really started. boozer fell because he was undersized and couldn't snag 10 boards/game in the ACC (unlike homeboy travis watson). and ftr, boozer came out as a junior which was shocking at the time.

anyway, just nitpicking. i agree that boozer and cousins have completely different sets of expectations and it's not a fair analogy. boozer/stoudemire is a more fitting analogy, but both neither were talented enough to compete for top pick overall against yao ming. good golly that was a weak draft. no wonder dixon was able to sneak a national championship and a 1st round draft pick out of it.


I think Duke myth started with guys like Christian Laettner, Bobby Hurley (although injuries were his downfall), Cherokee Parks, and Danny Ferry. Others included Chris Carrawell (2000), William Avery (1999), and Roshown McLeod (1998), along with Trajan Langdon who you just mentioned.

But you are right that couldn't have been the only reason. Boozer fell is because guys on that Duke team received more credit than they deserved like Jay Williams and Mike Dunleavy, who were picked in the top 3-4. Yes Jay Williams suffered that injury from a motorcycle accident so who knows how he would have turned out as an NBA player.

IIRC, Indiana also beat Duke in the tournament, whereupon Boozer left a bad impression by missing a layup off of a missed free throw which would have either won the game for Duke or sent the game into overtime. People took way too much out of that game where they elevated Jeffries to lottery status, who I thought had hacked Boozer on the play where no foul was called. Can't complain though because I don't like Duke much anyways. Quicker fours like Wilcox also gave Boozer problems in the MD vs Duke matchup although it turned out guys like Wilcox would not suceed in the pros.
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Re: Contrarian Assesment of John Wall 

Post#168 » by Hoopalotta » Sat May 22, 2010 4:31 am

I'm rootin' for Couz'ins, man. I liked him ever since I saw him interview that little girl on youtube in the NYC street session (the guy was very much going out of his way to make her feel comfortable and you could see he had a bit of the old 'big kid in him').

But I'm seeing the potential for big problems even without some kind of 'smoking gun' psychotic/drugs/criminality type thing. I don't think that sort of thing will turn up at all, but the moodiness-sensitivity-weight triangle has me concerned and I think we could be dealing with a certain volume of percentage points off his potential even without any one particular climactic problem.

I'm also really calling into question his defensive potential and foul-prone'iness carrying 292 pounds around. It would be one thing if you were confident that he'd get over that and hit some sort of lasting plateau of fitness, but I don't know if that's going to be the case.

But I do legitimately hope things work out for the guy. Folks, and even adults, have been piling on the dude since he was about 12 years old or so. I fully expect that he's basically a good guy, but just has some particular facets of his character that could cause problems in the structured and fickle world of the NBA.
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Re: Contrarian Assesment of John Wall 

Post#169 » by Kanyewest » Sat May 22, 2010 4:34 am

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:
Kanye, anybody should have known Boozer was way better than Jeffries.


Yeah, I know. Everyone except MJ/Wes knew. I know it may happen more often than not but how many guys jumpers become worse after they enter the NBA... I could go on about how much I hated that pick but the Wizards ended up getting Caron Butler, who is the player I wanted most in that draft.

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