Build a Team 1995 Final 4: Poop/Snake and Sam/Pen

[poopdamoop]

Matchup-wise

C: 2 of the 3 best centers in the league going head to head here. Looking at their respective stats, they played pretty evenly. Snake mentions that Shaq had Horace Grant alongside him, but he fails to note that Robinson had possibly the best defensive power forward of all time helping him out. Rodman often defended Shaq straight up, since Robinson often couldn't handle him one on one. Shaq always played his best against Robinson due to the grudge he held against him, and can easily overpower him in single coverage. Combine that with Robinson's propensity to choke in the playoffs, and this is a matchup Shaq could easily win. Defensively, Robinson is obviously an excellent anchor, but Shaq was actually very mobile in his younger days, able to show on pick and rolls much better. Our backups won't matter too much here, but Oliver Miller is a very talented scorer, rebounder, and shot blocker in his own right, and can wreak havoc if not paid attention to. Overall, I'd call this matchup a wash. Both guys will be excellent, but in a seven game series, who do you trust more?

PF: All due respect to Tyrone Hill, but I have no idea how he got an all star selection this year. He's a solid defender and rebounder, but he'll be forced to guard Cliff Robinson on the perimeter, limiting his rebounding abilities. I've also scaled back Robinson's shot attempts, using him primarily as a spot-up shooter to draw defenses away from Shaq. All he has to worry about is knocking down open jumpers and limiting Hill's second chance points, since Tyrone isn't a big offensive threat. Mason will get significant minutes off the bench here, and can match up with either Hill or Horry, who wasn't yet the Big Shot Bob we all know and love. This position can go either way as well, but Hill and Horry aren't going to win you games single handedly like Robinson possibly could.

SF: I disagree with Snake's assesment of Ceballos here. He wasn't ball dominant at all, getting most of his points off basket cuts and offensive rebounds, plus the occasional open jumper, much like Shawn Marion does today. He should be able to kill Kukoc, who's one of the few small forwards worse defensively than Ceballos was. A 40% 3pt shooter, Ceballos also has enough range to step out and knock down jumpers off of Shaq's kickouts. Kukoc, while offensively talented, isn't strong enough to deter Ceballos' rebounding position or bump him out of the lane. Mason and Horry will be matched up as backups again here, and Mason's all around game should give him the advantage. He's a great defender, and will be able to bother either Kukoc or Horry. We have a clear advantage at this position, imo.

SG: I have no idea why Snake would call Skiles my best perimeter scorer, since I have Latrell Sprewell a year removed from his all-NBA 1st team and all-Defensive 2nd team campaign. He has the clear edge over Nick Anderson, who was a decent, but not great, SG, who memorably choked away game 1 of the Finals and quite possibly blew the entire series with that loss of momentum. I'm actually going to have Scott Skiles defend Anderson, and put Sprewell on Hardaway, which will be discussed in a bit, and Skiles should have his hands full here. We might have to double off Kukoc or Hill, neither of whom are great 3 pt shooters, but Skiles knows Anderson's game from playing on the same team for years, and can at least play physically enough to get in Anderson's head. And we all know what happens if Anderson isn't totally focused. When Starks comes in, we're going to let him fire away, and switch Sprewell back to him. He's a talented scorer, but can easily shoot his team out of games, and we'll try to exploit that. Hubert Davis will come in for us and do nothing but shoot threes off of kickouts for 12 minutes, which he does better than almost anyone else. Again, Sprewell is clearly the best player here, giving us the advantage.

PG: Timmy Hardaway is one of my favorite players, and I admit he will have a big series. However, he's gonna be guarded by one of the best defenders in the league in Sprewell, who's fast enough to stay in front of him and big enough to contest his jumpers. Sprewell has also played with Hardaway before, and knows his game well enough to do a better job than most. Again, Hardaway will get his, but he'll have to work with an elite defender on him, and slowing him down means we slow their whole offense down. Scott Skiles is no slouch either, and if teams don't pay attention to him he'll make them pay. The guy holds the all time record for assists in one game, so it's not like he can't create for others. He'll make open jumpers and run the offense well, and he has enough of a veteran presence and selfless mindset to get players to buy into a defensive style of play, as we've seen with him as a coach. Off the bench, Erik Murdock will simply play solid basketball, hit open 3's, defend adequately, and not make many mistakes. Starks, on the other hand, is much more high risk/high reward. He shoots under 40%, is not a true point guard (Derek Harper was the PG on those Knick teams), and as I mentioned before, can easily ruin a game for his teammates, especially if he's forced to make decisions. Hardaway gives Snake the edge here, but I believe putting Sprewell on him will limit him a decent amount.

Overall, I believe my players are being cast in an unfair light when people say I have too many scorers. Ceballos and Cliff Robinson are not ball dominant at all, and Shaq is probably the best scorer in the league. Rebounding is a slight issue, but my opponent tends to exaggerate (i.e "we have the rebounding edge at every position" which really includes Hardaway's 2.9/36 minutes to Skiles' 2.8/36 and an anomaly season rebounding wise from Sprewell (who dropped 1 rpg due to injury, and was at 4.7 and 4.9 the seasons before and after). My team also has much better wing defense, and with Spree and Ceballos slashing and being physical plus Shaq being Shaq, my opponent's bigs will be in foul trouble pretty soon, which absolutely cripples their defense. I commend Snake for building an excellent, well rounded team, but as this is a 7 game series, do you really trust David Robinson, Nick Anderson, or John Starks to step up in crunch time? My team is more lethal offensively, more well rounded defensively, and aside from Shaq's free throw shooting, has no glaring holes in the last few minutes of games.

[SamBone]

The minutes breakdown I posted was as follows:

... Barkley 39 mpg at both SF and PF (in our small lineup)
Reggie 38 mpg
Rik 32 mpg

Our next level are our 5 key roleplayers -- Nate McMillan ... Kenny Smith ...Mario Elie... A.C.Green...Buck Williams ... All probably average between 20 and 30 mpg for a total with the starters of about 235 minutes.

I then further explained that you could average them at 25 minutes each to get to this number . . . 109 minute for our big three, 125 for our next 5, for a total of 234 with Jayson Williams getting the remaining 6 as a 3rd string center Ignoring garbage time or injuries. Our 4th and 5th starters and our 6/7/8 guys off the bench all get similar minutes depending on circumstances because they have different and valuable skill sets which I would sub with depending on matchups and hot hands. Then I compared them to the players on your team who get between 20 and 35 mpg and who play the same roles. Not sure why this is so difficult to understand. Rik Smits plays 32 minutes, not 22, Mario Elie plays between 20 and 30, not 10, for an average per series of about 25 expected in the series (more if his skillset is needed or he is particularly effective, less if the opposite is true).

look at how everyone else posts there minutes, and please explain to me were Ellie will find his 30 minutes? will he be playing a few minutes at C or PF ?

[penbeast0]

Elie will be playing 2 and 3; Barkley will swing to the 4.

With understanding that these are at best rough approximations

McMillan (23), Kenny Smith (25)
Reggie Miller (38), McMillan (2), Elie (8)
Barkley (31), Elie (17)
AC Green (25), Barkley (8), Buck Williams (15)
Smits (32), Buck Williams (10), Jayson Williams (6), AC Green can also play here in our small lineup

This was not that hard to figure out Sam, honestly.

The reason I hate to give that firm a number is that I believe good coaches go with the guys that are working. So, if our big lineup is working, when our first subs come in, Buck will come in at center for Smit's rest and Kenny to give Nate a breather and our big frontline + 3 point shooting rotation would look more like this (again, assuming no injuries or garbage time which is unrealistic though everyone did it):

McMillan (20), Kenny Smith (28)
Reggie (38), Elie (10)
Barkley (38), Elie (10)
Green (30), Buck Williams (17), Barkley (1)
Smits (32), Buck (13), Jayson (3)

Whereas, if our big lineup isn't dominating and our small lineup creates severe matchup problems, our rotation for the series (assuming . . . ) might look like this:

McMillan (23), Kenny Smith (25)
Reggie (38), Elie (10)
Barkley (21), Elie (20), Nate (7)
A.C.Green (20), Barkley (18), Buck (10)
Smits (32), Buck (10), Jayson (6)

And, of course, these are not the only possible variations. Like I said, it depends on what is working well.

[Snakebites]

To clarify my point about Skiles being poop's best perimeter scorer, I was discussing 3 point shooting/spacing only with that comment, nothing else.

With regards to Rodman helping DRob, a couple things need to be mentioned in that regard: Rodman did help Robinson....to a degree...maybe. But lets not go overboard here. DRob did not need that help to anchor great defenses. Indeed, a look at the statistics reveals that the Spurs defense without Rodman IMPROVED in the following season after his departure, and Shaq's numbers in that next year opposite Drob did not particularly improve.

More rebuttal later.

[SabasRevenge!]

I'm gonna go ahead and get the voting going:

Sam v. Pen

I like Sam's team quite a bit. Zo/Hill is a fantastic duo and they have nice role players around them as well. Unfortunately, Pen's team is just too stacked. Again, I believe that Pen had the best early round picks of any team. Him getting Smits in the third round was huge even if he's going against Mourning here. There are certainly some defensive deficiencies that could be picked apart on Pen's team and Sam's is clearly a better defensive squad, but the primary scoring of Barkley/Miller is excellent and Smits as a third scorer is quite a luxury. Ultimately I see Pen's offensive advantage as a bit more significant than Sam's defensive advantage.


Snake v. Poop

I initially thought that Poop went for a bit too much scoring, but I don't think that will be an issue with Shaq as a focal point. Snake has a great two way anchor in Robinson and a top PG in Timmy, but Poop counters with Shaq in the middle and some key advantages elsewhere. I like that Sprewell is guarding Hardaway for much of the game. I tried the same thing with Augmon last round and got hammered for it, but I really think it's a good strategy. Popovich did the same thing with Bowen on Billups a few years back and look where it got them. Cliffy is also a nice compliment to Shaq with his shooting ability and defensive length/versatility. Ceballos/Kukoc is kind of a bleh match up for me. Snake will need Kukoc and Anderson to step up pretty big in this series next to Hardaway and Robinson and that's assuming that Robinson has a great series against Shaq. If they can do that I think he's got a pretty good shot, but I find it more likely that Sprewell/Ceballos/Robinson will have some big games next to Shaq, a very good playoff performer, leading to a poop series win.

[Snakebites]

Thanks for voting, Sabas. I'd like to impose a deadline of 10 EST on Sunday for voting, and request that all of those eliminated please submit votes on these matchups.

If needed, those remaining (myself included) can vote on the remaining matchup as the deadline draws closer.

[Miller4ever]

Third try. I can explain better later, but right now, I'm a little frustrated with quick reply.

pen
Snake

Explanations coming soon.

[CellarDoor]

Pen v. Sam

I'm mostly echoing Sabas' sentiments, but for some reason, I don't remember The Flying Dutchman as fondly as a lot of you do. I'm pretty apprehensive about Sam's team and it's age, but I think they've got the tools needed to prevail. Barely.

Snake v. Poop

Going with Poop here. He's just got too many scorers, and I'll admit, I'm sort of concerned about a team relying on both DRob and Nick Anderson in the PS, and I'm not impressed with Hill, especially given the team he's coming from and his history in other seasons. In short, Snake's got less scoring, but aside from The Admiral, not any better defense, and the Admiral has his hands full.