Retro Player of the Year Project

[Doctor MJ]

So just to give a bit of a head's up: Not taking a break this weekend. If participation is terrible we'll see about extending the deadline, but it would be really great if we could get through a 1/2 decade every 2 weeks.

[semi-sentient]

Just to get the juices flowing for the 1997-98 voting thread...


1997-98 Regular Season

Code: Select all

Player    GP   MIN    PTS     TS%     REB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV   WS    PER
=============================================================================
Jordan    82   38.8   28.7   .533    5.8   3.5   1.7   0.5   2.3   15.8  25.2
Malone    81   37.4   27.0   .597   10.3   3.9   1.2   0.9   3.0   16.4  27.9
Payton    82   38.4   19.2   .544    4.6   8.3   2.3   0.2   2.8   12.5  21.6
Duncan    82   39.1   21.1   .577   11.9   2.7   0.7   2.5   3.4   12.8  22.6
Shaq      60   36.3   28.3   .587   11.4   2.4   0.7   2.4   2.9   10.2  28.8
D-Rob     73   33.7   21.6   .581   10.6   2.7   0.9   2.6   2.8   13.8  27.8
Mutombo   82   35.6   13.4   .584   11.5   1.0   0.4   3.4   2.1   10.8  19.8

1997-98 Post Season

Code: Select all

Player    GP   MIN    PTS     TS%     REB   AST   STL   BLK   TOV   WS    PER
=============================================================================
Jordan     21  41.5   32.4   .545    5.1   3.5   1.5   0.6   2.1   4.8   28.1
Malone     20  39.8   26.3   .534   10.9   3.4   1.0   1.0   3.0   3.0   24.2
Payton     10  42.8   24.0   .585    3.4   7.0   1.8   0.1   2.6   1.5   23.0
Duncan      9  41.6   20.7   .559    9.0   1.9   0.6   2.6   2.8   1.2   20.2
Shaq       13  38.5   30.5   .604   10.2   2.9   0.5   2.6   3.3   2.1   31.0
D-Rob       9  39.2   19.4   .496   14.1   2.6   1.2   3.3   2.8   1.5   24.1
Mutombo     4  34.0    8.0   .515   12.8   0.3   0.3   2.3   2.0   0.3   14.3

1997-98 Awards Breakdown

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Player        MVP Rank    DPOY Rank    All-NBA Team    All-Defensive Team
=========================================================================
Jordan        1           4            1st             1st
Malone        2           -            1st             1st
Payton        3           2            1st             1st
Duncan        5           5            1st             2nd
Shaq          4           -            1st             ---
D-Rob         7           3            2nd             2nd
Mutombo       -           1            3rd             1st

I can't think of anyone else that really deserves consideration.

[Baller 24]

Good stuff, I think from looking off that I already know the 5 I want, just don't know in what order.

[ElGee]

From the 1998 thread, something that caught my eye about TS%:

In 1998 Robinson was significantly better defender than Duncan and also slightly better offensive player: better efficiency (.581 TS% to .577 TS%) with much better PER: 27.8 to 22.6!

My general impression throughout this project is people are a little too reliant at looking on TS% as some measurement of offensive efficiency/production in a vacuum, when context is quite important regarding efficiency. TS% is a good number to reference, but in a situation like this, it's important to note that 22 ppg on .585 TS% isn't necessarily better than a teammate who produces 22 ppg on .575% TS.

That may sound counterintuitive, but when one player (our less efficient shooter) dictates significantly more defensive attention and the other is the beneficiary with open shots, it will happen. And that doesn't mean the more efficient shooter was better on offense.

Consider this simple example, in which I'll use Duncan and Robinson just for simplicity:

Poss 1: D-Rob doubled, passes to elbow, Duncan hits open jumper.
Poss 2: D-Rob singled, scores with jumper
Poss 3: D-Rob doubled, passes to Duncan for open layup, who is fouled at last second to save dunk from behind. He hits both FT's.
Poss 4: D-Rob singled, misses jumper.
Poss 5: D-Rob doubled, hockey pass ends up with Duncan who misses baseline jumper.

The first obvious aspect that isn't captured in TS%, regardless of the number, is that Robinson was the primary focus of the offense. Call this the Allen Iverson element. Second are the numbers:

D-Rob: 1-2 FG, 1 ast, 2 points .500 TS%
Duncan: 2-3 FG, 0 ast, 6 points .773 TS%

So, looking at the numbers, Duncan looks like a better scorer and a more efficient scorer. But in this example, he's the beneficiary of a teammates offensive talent. This is somewhat obvious, as we'd expect Allen, Garnett and Pierce to relieve defensive pressure on each other, and that's exactly what happened regarding their TS%.

--

A great current example of an individual who receives a lot of open looks, layups and layup fouls from a teammate (often Nash) is Amare Stoudemire. So we shouldn't look at Amare's 23 ppg on ~62% TS% and automatically assume that he's a "better" scorer than say Bosh (24 ppg 59%) or Dirk (25 ppg 58%).

One more example we've encountered in the project already, 2001 Allen Iverson vs. Kobe Bryant. It's tempting to see:

Bryant 25.1 pts/36 on .551 TS%
Iverson 26.7 pts/36 on .518 TS%

and assume that Bryant was the better offensive player that year. But he played with Shaquille O'Neal, who plays the role of David Robinson in our example. He constantly creates open offense for his teammates, and sometimes this isn't even captured in a stat like Ast% (extra passes, preemptive help off the ball, unwillingness to help off of).

Iverson's Ast% was 23.0
Bryant's Ast% was 23.0

But Kobe had Shaq (18.8 Ast%), as well as a number of players accruing assists due to defenses collapsing on Shaq (and sometimes on Kobe), and the triangle offense shifting the ball around to find a good shot in those situations. 9 of the top 10 Lakers in minutes had an Ast% over 11.7.

Iverson didn't play with a teammate like Shaq who could help him in that manner. In fact, Iverson barely played with someone who could create his own shot. Eric Snow (76ers PG) had an Ast% of 33.9 and from watching them one has the impression that a lot of those were extra passes where Snow passed up open shots created by Iverson and skipped the ball to a better shooter or just found an open shooter off a screen as he started offense. Aaron McKie's Ast% was 26.7. Only one other 76er in the top 9 in minutes was over 8.4. Snow wasn't commanding double teams and breaking down defenses. Iverson was.

The Lakers averaged 4.8 points more per 100 possessions than Philadelphia in 2001. But it seems wrong to conclude that that difference came from Bryant being a more efficient scorer than Iverson, despite ~half of the difference in ORtg between LA and Philly being explained, in a vacuum, by Iverson's inefficiency on his extra shots.

Ultimately, that means we can say a teammate was a better offensive player despite similar scoring numbers and lower efficiency! (The difference sometimes shows up in Ast%.) I think a lot of posters here were aware of this, but I thought it was worth noting given the prevalence of that kind of scoring/efficiency comparison as we move backward in time.

[tkb]

One more example we've encountered in the project already, 2001 Allen Iverson vs. Kobe Bryant. It's tempting to see:

Bryant 25.1 pts/36 on .551 TS%
Iverson 26.7 pts/36 on .518 TS%

and assume that Bryant was the better offensive player that year. But he played with Shaquille O'Neal, who plays the role of David Robinson in our example. He constantly creates open offense for his teammates, and sometimes this isn't even captured in a stat like Ast% (extra passes, preemptive help off the ball, unwillingness to help off of).

Iverson's Ast% was 23.0
Bryant's Ast% was 23.0

But Kobe had Shaq (18.8 Ast%), as well as a number of players accruing assists due to defenses collapsing on Shaq (and sometimes on Kobe), and the triangle offense shifting the ball around to find a good shot in those situations. 9 of the top 10 Lakers in minutes had an Ast% over 11.7.

Iverson didn't play with a teammate like Shaq who could help him in that manner. In fact, Iverson barely played with someone who could create his own shot. Eric Snow (76ers PG) had an Ast% of 33.9 and from watching them one has the impression that a lot of those were extra passes where Snow passed up open shots created by Iverson and skipped the ball to a better shooter or just found an open shooter off a screen as he started offense. Aaron McKie's Ast% was 26.7. Only one other 76er in the top 9 in minutes was over 8.4. Snow wasn't commanding double teams and breaking down defenses. Iverson was.

The Lakers averaged 4.8 points more per 100 possessions than Philadelphia in 2001. But it seems wrong to conclude that that difference came from Bryant being a more efficient scorer than Iverson, despite ~half of the difference in ORtg between LA and Philly being explained, in a vacuum, by Iverson's inefficiency on his extra shots.

Ultimately, that means we can say a teammate was a better offensive player despite similar scoring numbers and lower efficiency! (The difference sometimes shows up in Ast%.) I think a lot of posters here were aware of this, but I thought it was worth noting given the prevalence of that kind of scoring/efficiency comparison as we move backward in time.

The scoring efficiency argument kinda falls short when you consider that except Iverson's fluke season with Denver Kobe has had a better TS% for every single season of his career (all 13 seasons) compared to Iverson's best year, with that Denver season as the only exception.

The season Kobe scored 35.4 ppg with Lamar Odom, Smush Parker and two of Chris Mihm, Kwame Brown and Brian Cook as his other starters he had a TSP of 55.9 %. Iverson's best season with Philly had him at 54.3% (which is his 2nd best season over his entire career behind that 56.7 % year in Denver).

You can also look at Kobe's numbers before and after Shaq and realize that Kobe for the first 5 seasons after Shaq left beat his best season in TS% from the Shaq years every single season, which means that playing with one amazing player isn't always great for your efficiency. The numbers support that Kobe's efficiency as a scorer was hurt by playing with Shaq rather than improved.

IIRC rule changes have not had any direct effect on Kobe's TSP the first year after implementation either. If I'm not mistaken the illegal defense rules were changed before the 2001 season and the hand check rules before the 2005 season. Both seasons didnt show any big change in efficiency from the previous years.

He obviously shared more success with Shaq, but just looking at scoring efficiency Kobe has benefited more when he hasn't played with Shaq.

[ElGee]

^^^It was not an Iverson > Kobe argument career argument. I was pointing to that comparison as a good example of overvaluing TS% without looking at context between players on different teams.


--
In general, I think you need to re-examine Kobe's numbers with vs. without Shaq. His TS% was significantly lower within the Shaq years in games in which O'Neal didn't play (this has been hashed out in some of the threads for those years).

Here are Kobe's TS% relative to league average (the rule changes were indeed in 05):
Shaq years
00: +2.3%
01: +3.4%
02: +2.4%
03: +3.1%
04: +3.5%

Post Shaq
05: +3.4%
06: +2.4%
07: +3.9%
08: +3.6%
09: +1.7%

Isn't it possible that Kobe just became a better scorer as he hit his prime? I mean, most of his relative TS% edge post Shaq comes from the fact that he turned the 3-point shot into a pullup jumper (which he developed around 2003) and free throw%. So I'm not sure how the numbers support Shaq hurting Kobe's efficiency throughout those years.

[mysticbb]

Maybe an interesting chart:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

These is the development of ef%, fg% and ts% over the years for guards. Bryant's increased ts% is somewhat explainable with that kind of development in the whole league.

[lorak]

Maybe an interesting chart:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

These is the development of ef%, fg% and ts% over the years for guards. Bryant's increased ts% is somewhat explainable with that kind of development in the whole league.

So it seems like rules change in 2004 really helped upgrade guards offense? That would explain Nash improvement.

[Doctor MJ]

Maybe an interesting chart:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

These is the development of ef%, fg% and ts% over the years for guards. Bryant's increased ts% is somewhat explainable with that kind of development in the whole league.

Cool chart.

[Doctor MJ]

So it seems like rules change in 2004 really helped upgrade guards offense? That would explain Nash improvement.

I think it's a factor, but the league didn't jump like he jumped.

Also of note is that guard efficiency during Nash's MVP years wan't jawdropping. It's the years afterward where you can make a case that guards are doing clearly better than the peak in the 80s.

[Doctor MJ]

Wed-Fri thread is up and will go until Friday night. We'll then take a break for the weekend.

[JordansBulls]

Just something I wanted to mention.

I just can't justify ranking another player ahead of a player in that season if a player ended up winning both the Season and Finals MVP. To me that should be virtually unanimous.
And this from when both awards have existed.

Examples:

1970 Willis Reed
1971 Kareem
1983 Moses Malone
1984 Larry Bird
1986 Larry Bird
1987 Magic Johnson
1991 Michael Jordan
1992 Michael Jordan
1994 Hakeem Olajuwon
1996 Michael Jordan
1998 Michael Jordan
2000 Shaquille O'neal
2003 Tim Duncan


1973 will be interesting year to vote.

[Doctor MJ]

and we're on break. Next thread will start Monday.

[sp6r=underrated]

Jordan's assent up the share leaders board reminds me of this:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoFquax2F-k[/youtube]

[Baller 24]

Next two seasons (1995 and 1994), we enter the two years dominated by the 90s giants, should be fun. Sadly enough, I don't think in 1994 I have Pippen in the top 5, and many even consider that as his best season.

[ronnymac2]

^^^94 and 95 is going to be interesting with the two power forwards in their prime. Nevermind the centers. haha

[Baller 24]

Yup. '94 seems awesome Shaq (29/13/3blocks), Olajuwon (MVP/Finals MVP/DPOY), Robinson (30/5ast/11reb/3.3blk/1.7stl), and Ewing (24/11/2.7blk). Sadly though, only dream was solid out of them in the playoffs, the other three took quite a big a dip in terms of efficiency. Malone was 25/11/4/1.5/1.5/50%, while in the playoffs he took a 53 win to the WCF with beast playoff averages of 27/12/3, Pippen was good too, but in the playoffs he took a big dip too.

[lorak]

Pippen was good too, but in the playoffs he took a big dip too.

And infamous “discussion” with Jackson about last shot which eventually Kukoc made.

[JordansBulls]

Didn't realize how good Robinson was in 1994. I plan on voting for Hakeem that year as I feel if a player gets MVP and DPOY the same year they should be considered the best. Hakeem got all 3 that year in MVP, DPOY and Finals MVP.

But I didn't realize that Robinson had a 20 WS in the season and over a 30.7 PER in the season. But once again he had HCA in the series vs Utah and lost to the Jazz.

I'm trying to figure out do I put Malone over Robinson here again or if Robinson's impact was still greater when you combine both season and playoffs.

[Baller 24]

Ehh...after number 1 for Olajuwon, 2-5 are all debatable, but most likely I've got Ewing, Robinson, Malone, O'neal (in no order) OVER Pippen. I knew Robinson and Ewing were solid, Shaq kinda surprised me, didn't know he was so dominant that season.