Turner Will Fall to Four

[Kurosawa]

My biggest concern heading into this draft isn't whether the Wolves can draft Evan Turner, but that they might needlessly overpay to do so. And by "overpay," I mean paying anything at all to move up for him.

A number of indicators--some subtle, others less so--suggest strongly that Turner won't be one of the first three players drafted:

1. The value of big men, and the ascension of DeMarcus Cousins and Derrick Favors.

Cousins' rare low-post skills, and the premium generally placed in the draft on quality big men, have been propelling him up draft boards rapidly. Now comes the news of his sick 7-foot, 5 and 3/4-inch wingspan. Not only is he a huge man, he is a long man. He is a potential difference-maker in the post, the kind that comes around only every five to 10 years.

Favors' impressive length as measured at the combine, meanwhile, indicate that he could play the 5 as well as the 4. Already an athletic freak, that increases his value dramatically.

(Not that it matters all that much, but Favors has leapfrogged Turner into the No. 2 spot, and Cousins has jumped over Johnson to No. 4, on Chad Ford's latest prospect list.)

2. As has been documented elsewhere many times, Turner is not the best fit for Philly, with Iggy and combo guard Jrue Holiday on hand. With Dalembert's days numbered, a post is what Dr. J would order.

Philadelphia will have its pick between the two premier big men and will pull the trigger on one of them. My guess is they take Cousins, with the Nets gleefully picking Favors.

3. Turner's wingspan measurement was disappointing--only average for a man his size. His height--ideal for the 2--compensates for that somewhat, but it is a subtle factor that will diminish him in the eyes of many GMs.

4. I don't see any team below the Wolves that would be willing, let alone able, to trade up to the second or third spots to get Turner. Sacramento? Seems the Kings already have their play-making 2. Golden State? Nope. Detroit? The Pistons want a tough big man (Greg Monroe, likely). Nobody, In other words, will be leapfrogging us to nab him. So we ought not to make a deal to forestall that possibility.

Turner will be there for the taking--I am utterly confident of that. The worst mistake Kahn could make is to surrender valuable assets to move up to the second spot to take him there.

Let the draft come to you, Mr. Kahn, and you--we--will be amply rewarded.

[bigballa3jj]

um. no.

[jade_hippo]

a bold claim indeed! however i see Philly leap at the chance to erease the mistake of Iggys obnoxiously large mistake. They can afford to sell him pennies on the dollar and maybe even stick Brand or Dally with him as a package with Turner to replace him. Iggy is a very very good player, just paid really terrible for a bad team.

[IAmTheTruth]

I'll believe it when I see it. Right now, with Cousins conditioning being a concern, I don't see Philly drafting him over Turner. I think they like him and would consider a trade, but they'd be stupid not to take Turner just as Minnesota would be stupid not to take Cousins.

[Dewey]

Interesting. I feel like I just woke up from a dream that had us drafting the #4 spot ... but in reality, we are really drafting #2 !!! Based on team needs, I have considered this same logic eventhough it's highly unlikely. Maybe the top 5 teams should sit down and just talk it over.

1.) Keep in mind that unlike Turners ability to score (a great handle on the ball) ... his actual shooting skills are considered merely average. Johnson = NBA shooter. Turner = NBA scorer

2.) If this keeps up, we may have a thread that has us moving up to try and get Favors or DMC ....

[Kurosawa]

Philadelphia would be stupid not to take Turner only if it has a prearranged trading partner to deal him to. If it picks Turner without one, his trade value diminishes--and potentially, it could be forced to hang on to him. That's not a bad thing based on Turner's sheer ability, of course, but if it doesn't mesh with the team's overall makeup and strategy, it fails to optimize the asset of a No. 2 pick.

Philadelphia has to be careful that it doesn't get too cute with this and squander a once-in-a-who-knows-how-long opportunity to pick this high. I would assume it realizes that and at the 11th hour, will pull away from the precipice.

Of course, I may be way off base on this--Philadelphia might view Turner as a franchise player. But if that's the case, would it trade him anyway? Methinks the Sixers are rolling the dice on this--gambling that they can pick up additional assets from an overeager Minnesota. Is it possible Philadelphia is bluffing? It's a real possibility--and if so, much will depend on how good a poker player David Kahn is.

[shangrila]

I don't see it happening. His measurements aren't enough to knock him down and he's easily the most skilled and well rounded player in the draft. Philadelphia will pick and keep him and for good reason.

[C.lupus]

Turner won't fall to 4.

[Foye]

I'm not utterly convinced that Turner will not fall but I'm sure he won't make it past #3.

[Basti]

even if Philly doesn't take him, he won't get past New Jersey. why? because they can draft a great SG prospect while being able to get a PF via Free Agency (Boozer, Bosh, Amare, maybe even Dirk).

[Foye]

even if Philly doesn't take him, he won't get past New Jersey. why? because they can draft a great SG prospect while being able to get a PF via Free Agency (Boozer, Bosh, Amare, maybe even Dirk).

Yes. Of course they could also attract a SG (Wade, Johnson) but the SG options seem to be more limited than the PF options.

I'd say they'll end up with David Lee if they draft Turner.

[Esohny]

Turner won't fall to 4.

[tvwolves7]

I am pessimistic but last year this board and myself included thought that there is no way Rubio drops to us till a few hours before the draft. I know Rubio's situation is due to his contract.

[tvwolves7]

I know the consensus by the draft sites is NJ takes Favors but I am wondering why there has been no talk of NJ picking Cousins. They can re-establish a Robinson-Duncan or Olajuwon-Sampson type team. I understand Duncan has an outside game with his bank shots and Sampson was a fast big, but Lopez and Cousins seem to be athletic enough to guard most 4s and they are both talented on O to figure something out.

[Devilzsidewalk]

Favors is the safe pick for Jersey, Favors has high post experience, clearly no problem playing PF, no attitude probs, in fantastic condition, I think Favors is automatic for Jersey

as far as Turner falling to 4, I think Philly would take Turner and trade later if that what both teams want. They can get something out of the deal for sure, even if it's "just" the #16 pick. No reason to pass on him when Kahn can't shut up for 5 seconds about how badly he wants Turner on the team

[shrink]

Excellent post Kurosawa . When I read the title, I thought "No way!" but you took a bold stand and made some excellent points. Values change leading up to the draft, and young big men make GM's salivate .. you need look no farther than the very last draft and Thabeet to know that it happens.

I'm not willing to say it will happen, but your strong post has moved me from "Impossible!" to "Yes, there's a reasonable possible scenario" and that's amazing. It gives me hope. Nice work.

[the_bruce]

It's my personal opinion (and always has been) that the gap between turner and cousins isn't there. Cousins is a big man and very unique/talented with how agile he is for his size. Turner is a wiz with the ball and would be a great fit here, but I've never seen him as a potential franchise player.

[Tirion]

It's possible.

[jpatrick]

This reminds me of the OJ Mayo draft a few years ago. Mayo was considered the consensus #3 choice but teams, including us, seemed to think he wasn't such a clear cut choice. We ended up taking him but with an eye to deal. I think the same thing could happen in Philly.

Am I nuts to think that the 76ers are a much better team if they take the 4/16 and draft Cousins and Henry (or other SG). Their needs to me seem to be a wing who's a pure shooter and a big center who can score down low. Doesn't a starting 5 of Holiday, Henry, Iggy, Cousins, and Brand or Speights sounds like it's got some serious long term potential?

I could see Turner slipping, but because he fits us so perfectly, I'd do 4/16 for him. I don't think I'd give up any more than that though. As much as we love Turner, he's not a surefire superstar by any means (see Mayo above, who many, on this board at least, thought was destined to be a 10 time all star).

[Kurosawa]

Thanks, Shrink. That means a lot coming from you.

Two more points:

1. Teams looking to trade an asset gain value in direct proportion to the number of potential trading partners they have (i.e., teams bidding against each other to secure that asset). Unless New Jersey secretly covets Turner--doubtful, in my view--which team besides Minnesota is a realistic partner for the Sixers? Remember, Philly won't want to trade down any lower than to the fourth pick because after four the talent level in this draft falls off the cliff (sorry, all you Wes Johnson lovers). This is a four-player draft at the top, plain and simple. If you think Johnson's a steal at five, that's you're prerogative, but remember, there will be are a slew of wings between 12 and 20 who'll be only marginally less talented than him.

2. All the reasons posters keep giving to convince themselves that Cousins will be a bust--conditioning, attitude, etc.--are bogus. So he's not Dwight Howard in the conditioning department--I recall a guy named Shaq who wasn't Gentleman Quarterly's idea of svelte and had a pretty dominant career in the post. As far as Cousin's attitude is concerned, remember this: (a) he's never been in the trouble with the law, and (b) he's coachable, as attested to by Calipari and evidenced by the dramatic improvement he made over the course of the year.