ESPN's Jayson Stark: Blue Jays Are Tracking Indian's Carmona

[Jatt]

Cleveland's looking to sell while he's hot and semi-back to form, wouldn't be a bad pitcher to take a flyer on, could be a good bottom of the rotation piece for this season until all the arms are back to healthy instead of rushing them at worst, could end up a a solid top of the rotation guy at best.

http://www.kffl.com/gnews.php?id=647248

[tsherkin]

What would we give up to get a $5M/yr pitcher who's had one great season followed by a couple of really bad ones? He's got good stuff and he's only 26, using his slider and change more...

I don't know. If we're getting rid of O'ferbay, it might not be a bad plan and we could always use a guy who can (in principle) pitch well.

But correct me if I'm wrong, but if his velocity is down (which it is), his ERA is out-performing his FIP and xFIP (which it is) and his baBIP is .264 (which is far below his career average), he's due for a big regression pretty soon. His groundball to flyball ratio is almost identical to last year (noticeably below the rate he posted when he had the 19-win season), the lowest groundout to flyout ratio of his career, an unreasonably low HR/FB% (roughly half his career rate)... Carmona's success right now isn't likely to last if I'm reading that right.

He's throwing strikes, getting more swinging misses than usual, guys are making more contact than usual, it just doesn't feel like a good time to get him because he doesn't really look any different than usual apart from a bunch of luck.

[zilby]

Fausto Carmona?

He's been pretty brutal the last 2 seasons, not sure I would take the chance on him.

[Randle McMurphy]

What would we give up to get a $5M/yr pitcher who's had one great season followed by a couple of really bad ones? He's got good stuff and he's only 26, using his slider and change more...

I don't know. If we're getting rid of O'ferbay, it might not be a bad plan and we could always use a guy who can (in principle) pitch well.

But correct me if I'm wrong, but if his velocity is down (which it is), his ERA is out-performing his FIP and xFIP (which it is) and his baBIP is .264 (which is far below his career average), he's due for a big regression pretty soon. His groundball to flyball ratio is almost identical to last year (noticeably below the rate he posted when he had the 19-win season), the lowest groundout to flyout ratio of his career, an unreasonably low HR/FB% (roughly half his career rate)... Carmona's success right now isn't likely to last if I'm reading that right.

He's throwing strikes, getting more swinging misses than usual, guys are making more contact than usual, it just doesn't feel like a good time to get him because he doesn't really look any different than usual apart from a bunch of luck.

You're right...Carmona isn't good. And he's pretty expensive for his production compared to our many alternatives.

[Schad]

Yeah, don't want him. He has about $9.5m guaranteed remaining, which covers this year and next, so even if the Indians are just looking to flat-out dump his contract, it isn't good value; he could be better as a reliever, but that's a steep price even if he turns into a good late-inning guy.

[Hoopstarr]

It's interesting (and not in a good way) that they'd follow this guy so closely. He's a known commodity by now so what are they looking for in him? Is it just because he's an extreme ground ball pitcher? And he costs much more than any of the better alternatives we already have.

[Michael Bradley]

Yeah I don't see the point in getting Carmona. Salary aside, his groundball rates have gradually gone down since 2007 and his K/9 and K/BB are both unspectacular at best. He's still young and maybe has some upside left, but he is being paid a lot of money and I don't think he'll ever repeat his 2007 season.

Pass.

[OldNo7]

Doesnt hurt to track him, as the article suggests, because maybe they see something that is fixable and they feel they can get him on the real cheap. Or, if someone in the organization was interested, tracking him while he is terrible will also give scouts evidence to say "hey, this guy is not getting back to what he was, we definitely dont want him."

[tsherkin]

Certainly no harm in looking, just as long as we don't get him. We've no need for him. I guess due diligence is importance. It's too bad we missed out on Chapman, though. Too damned bad.