Thread of blind optimism

[Dr Positivity]

I hear a lot of people saying our run is about to screech to a halt with the next 9 games against the Rays/Yankees

F that. Go Jays go. Team of destiny baby. Cock your guns, we're going Rays and Yankees hunting starting now. Bring those f'ers down. This is one of the most important stretches for us in our playoff push, not a death sentence

[Geddy]

aw yeah we're gonna be sitting atop the AL East by the time the next 9 games are done with.

[youngLion]

I totally agree. Considering that story about the Jays being buyers at the deadline, I fully expect them to go after a top of the rotation starter. A guy like Halladay probably fits the mold. I bet we could get him for Wallace & Drabek. Get 'r done, AA!

[OldNo7]

I fully expect them to go after a top of the rotation starter. A guy like Halladay probably fits the mold. I bet we could get him for Wallace & Drabek. Get 'r done, AA!

LOL well played

[zilby]

I totally agree. Considering that story about the Jays being buyers at the deadline, I fully expect them to go after a top of the rotation starter. A guy like Halladay probably fits the mold. I bet we could get him for Wallace & Drabek. Get 'r done, AA!

Man, that doesn't sound right.

We only need to give Drabek.

Get 'er done, AA does not sound right either...

WS!

[Schad]

If they re-align the divisions mid-season, we're totally going to the playoffs!

[tecumseh18]

I'm positive that this thread will have the same impact on the future as the recent pre-lottery thread on some other board did.

But it was nice to hear John Kruk put us at number 5 in his overall rankings today, and say our power hitting is for real and will continue. Not a brainy guy, but you'd expect him to know about good Blue Jay hitting.

[Lateral Quicks]

I'm onboard, with legitimate optimism. This is a top 10 ball team in baseball so far, and 5th best in the American league. I'd say 3-6 is the worst we can reasonably expect over the 9-game stretch, and that would be far from catastrophic. I'm hoping for 4-5. Anything more would be a pleasant surprise, especially considering a rehabbed Tallet is starting one of those games.

I think it's partly a mental thing for the Jays when they face the East (excluding Baltimore). They are exposed to all they media hype just like us, only moreso. If they keep playing like they have so far, a 0-9 stretch is out of the question.

[s e n s i]

I totally agree. Considering that story about the Jays being buyers at the deadline, I fully expect them to go after a top of the rotation starter. A guy like Halladay probably fits the mold. I bet we could get him for Wallace & Drabek. Get 'r done, AA!

I don't know if that will be enough. We might have to throw in D'Arnaud, but I'd be reluctant to do so.

[wicked_crossova]

i hat when people say dont be buyers at the deadline. **** the future, this is our year. You dont know how long this hitting will continue, so make it count THIS YEAR.

[Schad]

**** the future, this is our year.

No. God no. Screwing over our future in a wrongheaded attempt to chase down the impossible is the worst possible thing we could do. It's not like this is a down year in the AL East or anything...the Rays, Yankees and Sox are on pace for 108, 97 and 90 wins respectively (and Boston is picking up steam), and whereas we've played 15 games against the other East teams, they've played 21, 19 and 27.

To hammer home how implausible it is that we'll keep this up, here are some seasonal comparisons, extrapolating out from the numbers of our scrubby sluggers:

John Buck: 433 ABs, 25 HRs, 81 RBI, 123 OPS+.
Comparison: Jorge Posada in 2002...he won the Silver Slugger. He also had 200 more at-bats, so this is understating Buck's case a tad.

Alex Gonzalez: 627 ABs, 34 HRs, 100 RBI, 122 OPS+.
Comparison: Alfonso Soriano in 2003...he won the Silver Slugger and received MVP votes.

Jose Bautista: 562 ABs, 50 HRs, 128 RBI, 162 OPS+.
Comparison: Alex Rodriguez in 2003...he won the MVP. And Bautista's OPS+ is actually 14 points better.

Vernon Wells: 611 ABs, 41 HRs, 112 RBIs, 158 OPS+.
Comparison: Uh...Mickey Mantle in 1960? Second in MVP voting


Throw in Shaun Marcum pitching like a Cy Young contender (with Romero close behind), and there's an awful lot there that's unlikely to continue. And once more, with feeling...these performances haven't been sufficient. We're still one game back of the Yankees and one up on the Sox despite playing a far easier schedule, and despite getting absolutely unbelievable performances from unlikely sources.

I'm sorry, but if you think that this team is good enough that we should be throwing away our future to chase a playoff berth, you're out to lunch.

[s e n s i]

GET DAT GAWBIGE OUTTA HURRRRRRR SCHADDYBOY!

[Randle McMurphy]

This difficult stretch doesn't just end after 9 games. It pretty much goes for the rest of the season.

[Randle McMurphy]

I'm sorry, but if you think that this team is good enough that we should be throwing away our future to chase a playoff berth, you're out to lunch.

Exactly...this team needs to the rebuild correctly. The last thing we should do is start trading the future away to compete against vastly superior ball clubs in this division.

Jose Bautista: 562 ABs, 50 HRs, 128 RBI, 162 OPS+.
Comparison: Alex Rodriguez in 2003...he won the MVP. And Bautista's OPS+ is actually 14 points better.

This must continue. Don't question it.

[-MetA4-]

24 of our 30 wins this season have against teams which have a combined record of 129-172 (43% win percentage).

[RapsFanInVA]

24 of our 30 wins this season have against teams which have a combined record of 129-172 (43% win percentage).

That's what I expected but was too lazy to look it up. All of June will help boost the opposing team record with the Padres Rockies Cards and Phillies from the NL in addition to Rays Yanks Rays.

This is gonna be a tough stretch.

[Lateral Quicks]

Errr, this is the blind optimism thread. Get that negativity out of here!

But seriously, going for broke this season *doesn't* makes sense. Even if they're still in the mix come the trade deadline. AA is trying to develop a sustainable competitive team year in, year out. Let's not waste the great job he's done so far. If you can buy a decent player w/o giving up prospects at the deadline, that could be an option. But I'd be upset if AA gave away any of the prospects he's stockpiled this year.

[Dr Positivity]

**** the future, this is our year.

No. God no. Screwing over our future in a wrongheaded attempt to chase down the impossible is the worst possible thing we could do. It's not like this is a down year in the AL East or anything...the Rays, Yankees and Sox are on pace for 108, 97 and 90 wins respectively (and Boston is picking up steam), and whereas we've played 15 games against the other East teams, they've played 21, 19 and 27.

To hammer home how implausible it is that we'll keep this up, here are some seasonal comparisons, extrapolating out from the numbers of our scrubby sluggers:

John Buck: 433 ABs, 25 HRs, 81 RBI, 123 OPS+.
Comparison: Jorge Posada in 2002...he won the Silver Slugger. He also had 200 more at-bats, so this is understating Buck's case a tad.

Alex Gonzalez: 627 ABs, 34 HRs, 100 RBI, 122 OPS+.
Comparison: Alfonso Soriano in 2003...he won the Silver Slugger and received MVP votes.

Jose Bautista: 562 ABs, 50 HRs, 128 RBI, 162 OPS+.
Comparison: Alex Rodriguez in 2003...he won the MVP. And Bautista's OPS+ is actually 14 points better.

Vernon Wells: 611 ABs, 41 HRs, 112 RBIs, 158 OPS+.
Comparison: Uh...Mickey Mantle in 1960? Second in MVP voting


Throw in Shaun Marcum pitching like a Cy Young contender (with Romero close behind), and there's an awful lot there that's unlikely to continue. And once more, with feeling...these performances haven't been sufficient. We're still one game back of the Yankees and one up on the Sox despite playing a far easier schedule, and despite getting absolutely unbelievable performances from unlikely sources.

I'm sorry, but if you think that this team is good enough that we should be throwing away our future to chase a playoff berth, you're out to lunch.

Not that I truly believe we'll make it, but while we do have Buck/Gonzo/Bautista playing over their heads and bound to come down to earth, we're also getting jack all from Hill, Lind, and the injured Snider. Hill might not come back and prove last year as a fluke, but Lind should turn it around, and Snider was in god mode in May before he went down. If we start getting .800 OPS production from Lind and Snider it could balance out the inevitable falling back to earth of Buck and Gonzalez

[The Flying Gent]

This team is going places. STRAIGHT to the top baby!

[Schad]

Not that I truly believe we'll make it, but while we do have Buck/Gonzo/Bautista playing over their heads and bound to come down to earth, we're also getting jack all from Hill, Lind, and the injured Snider. Hill might not come back and prove last year as a fluke, but Lind should turn it around, and Snider was in god mode in May before he went down. If we start getting .800 OPS production from Lind and Snider it could balance out the inevitable falling back to earth of Buck and Gonzalez

But look at the totality of our offensive production, beyond just the home runs...our OPS+ as a team was 112 entering tonight, and we're second in offense behind the Yankees. That would be the best or second-best in every season from 2004 onwards, despite having the worst OBP in the AL and the third-worst in the majors. I wish that it was, but this just isn't a top-two offense over 162 games.